Economic Outlook

The global economy remains resilient, with inflation continuing to moderate and global trade starting to revive. Lower inflation is providing a boost to real household income growth and spending, although consumer confidence has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels in many countries. 

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This report assesses the global economic outlook to 2026, highlighting persistent inflation, slowing growth, and rising trade tensions. It identifies key risks—from geopolitical uncertainty to protectionism—and offers policy recommendations on monetary stability, fiscal responsibility, and structural reform. Emphasizing international coordination, resilient supply chains, and the strategic adoption of AI, it presents a roadmap for long-term, sustainable growth.

There are signs that the global outlook has started to brighten, though growth remains modest. The impact of tighter monetary conditions continues, especially in housing and credit markets, but global activity is proving relatively resilient, inflation is falling faster than initially projected and private sector confidence is improving. Supply and demand imbalances in labour markets are easing, with unemployment remaining at or close to record lows. Real incomes have begun to improve as inflation moderates and trade growth has turned positive. 

Global growth proved surprisingly resilient in 2023, with lower energy prices and fading supply chain pressures helping inflation to decline more quickly than anticipated. However, recent indicators point to some moderation of growth. In the absence of further adverse supply shocks, cooling demand pressures should allow headline and core inflation to fall further in most economies. By the end of 2025 inflation is projected to be back to target in most G20 countries. Geopolitical risks remain high, particularly in relation to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East following the terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas.