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#URC2022: The Ukraine Recovery Conference

4-5 July 2022, Switzerland

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The importance of vocational education and training systems for refugees

1 July 2022

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04/10/2022
This note assesses the immediate impact of Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine on global insurance markets. It addresses direct impacts of the war on the industry, such as losses arising in certain specialty lines and restrictions on the provision of insurance services, and indirect impacts, such as increased macroeconomic and financial market volatility, that in turn affects insurers.
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29/08/2022
In the first half of 2022, many electricity markets continued to experience skyrocketing prices, particularly in Europe, reflecting deep uncertainties over both fossil fuel supplies and the economic outlook. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered any hope of energy prices declining in the near term following the strong increases seen in the second half of 2021. In Europe, the situation prompted heightened ambitions and strengthened policies to advance clean energy transitions and reduce dependency on fuel imports. But in the short term, it also resulted in a partial return to coal-fired electricity generation. Sluggish economic growth is expected to dampen global electricity demand growth in 2022 and 2023 to less than half the rate seen in 2021. Despite gas-to-coal switching and low nuclear power plant availability in Europe, global electricity sector emissions may decline slightly in 2022 and 2023 – reflecting a combination of slowing power demand and displacement of fossil fuels by renewables.This July 2022 update of the IEA Electricity Market Report presents our latest forecasts for global electricity demand, supply and emissions through 2023. In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we also provide a special focus on the situation in Europe, discussing recent developments and future plans.
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29/08/2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the tightening supply of natural gas underway since mid-2021, further pushing up prices for consumers and leading to fuel switching and demand destruction. It also casts longer-term uncertainty on market prospects for natural gas, especially in developing markets where it was to play a central role in energy transitions.Natural gas demand is expected to decline in 2022 and remain subdued up to 2025. Europe’s surging pursuit of LNG to phase out Russian pipeline supply and limited global LNG export capacity additions raise the risk of prolonged tight markets. Faster development and implementation of clean energy transition policies, especially in mature gas markets, would ease price competition and help emerging markets access supplies that can contribute to short-term improvements in carbon intensity and air quality.This new issue of the Gas Market Report offers a medium-term forecast and analysis of global gas markets to 2025, as well as a review of recent developments in major regional gas markets during the first half of 2022.
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29/08/2022
Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions: From Today’s Challenges to Tomorrow’s Clean Energy Systems is a new report by the International Energy Agency that looks at how nuclear energy could help address two major crises – energy and climate – facing the world today. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the disruptions in global energy supplies that it has fuelled have made governments rethink their energy security strategies, putting a stronger focus on developing more diverse and domestically based supplies. For multiple governments, nuclear energy is among the options for achieving this. At the same time, many governments have in recent years stepped up their ambitions and commitments to reach net zero emissions. Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions expands upon the IEA’s landmark 2021 report, Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. It does so by exploring in depth nuclear power’s potential role as a source of low emissions electricity that is available on demand to complement the leading role of renewables such as wind and solar in the transition to electricity systems with net zero emissions.In this context, the report examines the difficulties facing nuclear investment, particularly in advanced economies, in the areas of cost, performance, safety and waste management. It considers the additional challenge of meeting net zero targets with less nuclear power than envisioned in the IEA Net Zero Roadmap, as well as what kind of cost targets could enable nuclear power to play a larger role in energy transitions. For countries where nuclear power is considered an acceptable part of the future energy mix, the new report identifies the potential policy, regulatory and market changes that could be implemented in order to create new investment opportunities. It also looks at the role of new technologies, particularly small modular reactors, and their potential development and deployment.
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29/08/2022
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has had a dramatic impact on the global energy system. Russia was the world’s largest oil and natural gas exporter in 2021, and energy markets have been thrown into turmoil, with major energy security and supply risks worldwide.Substantial gas resources currently are being produced that do not make it to market because they are lost to flaring and leaks across the oil and gas supply chain. This report estimates that nearly 210 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas could be made available to gas markets by a global effort to eliminate non-emergency flaring and reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations.If countries that currently export natural gas to the European Union were to implement these two measures, they could increase gas exports by more than 45 bcm using existing infrastructure, equivalent to almost one third of Russian gas exports to the EU in 2021.
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05/08/2022
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has been since February 2022 undermining the latter’s capacity to harvest and export crops. A reduction in export capacity from Ukraine and Russia, and rising energy and fertiliser prices are pushing up international food prices, thereby threatening global food security. Findings presented in this brief suggest that the full loss of Ukraine’s capacity to export together with a 50% reduction in Russian wheat export could lead to a 34% increase in international wheat prices in the marketing year 2022/23.
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04/08/2022
Severe disruptions to global markets caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine have exposed vulnerabilities to the security of the supply of raw materials critical for industrial production and for the green transition. These supply chain vulnerabilities are the result of export restrictions, bilateral dependencies, a lack of transparency and persistent market asymmetries, including the concentration of production in just a few countries. A collective and co-ordinated approach among OECD countries can contribute to economic security, while preserving the benefits of open markets and a rules-based international trading system.
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03/08/2022
Given the unprecedented number and unique profile of Ukrainians fleeing their country in a short time following its invasion by Russia, as 50% of refugees are children, host country schools are facing challenges to increase their capacity and address the needs of the new refugee students. For children, returning to school can provide a sense of security and stability, while ensuring that they can have appropriate opportunities of developing their skills and do not suffer even larger losses later in life. Beyond the short-term integration of refugee students in schools and classrooms, host countries will have to deal with the promotion of the inclusion of students that will remain in the countries on a longer term. Early assessments, individualised curricula, language learning support and more will be key elements in the education of Ukrainian refugee students. Due to considerable uncertainty regarding the length of stay of refugee students from Ukraine in host countries, education systems will need to be flexible in meeting the needs of refugee students and providing opportunities to develop skills needed to prepare them for career paths after their return to Ukraine. Moreover, coordinated exchanges with Ukrainian policy makers and the provision of opportunities for students to stay connected with Ukrainian curriculum, language and culture are also important as many refugees may wish to return to Ukraine in the future. In sum, a holistic approach will be needed to address all the needs of Ukrainian refugee students, from a learning, social and emotional perspective.
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03/08/2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has placed a heavy burden on host country schools and teachers. Indeed, refugee students need support beyond the development of academic skills, including assistance to integrate into the host society and support for the well-being. The challenge of providing this support falls largely on teachers in host countries, who may not have training to teach children who do not speak the language of instruction and who may require trauma counselling. Teachers need support in order to best respond to rapidly changing conditions and refugee students’ needs, including working closely with school leadership and non-instructional support staff and receiving relevant training. Moreover, countries will need to rely on Ukrainian teaching staff if faced by a personnel shortage. This will help them provide a sense of familiarity to the refugee students in both language and curriculum as students transition to the host language and host country curriculum. Additionally, this strategy can be rewarding for the refugee teachers, providing them with a sense of purpose as well as financial stability. Overall, implementing policies and allocating resources based on evidence from successful strategies can build capacity and provide teachers with needed support, with OECD countries providing examples of good practices.
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27/07/2022
The historic mass outflow of people fleeing the unprovoked Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has placed significant pressures on the reception capacities of OECD and EU countries. Ukrainian refugees face a variety of settlement-related challenges. Perhaps the most pressing of these challenges is access to housing. OECD countries have rallied private citizens, NGOs, the private sector and government services to provide housing, but regardless of the short-term solutions identified, the transition to more durable accommodation is a looming challenge. This brief presents an overview of specific policy decisions taken by these countries regarding the short-term housing of refugees from Ukraine and challenges identified to date. It seeks to identify relevant considerations for those countries that are beginning to adapt their thinking regarding Ukrainians’ prospects for longer-term stays.
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27/07/2022
The unprovoked war of aggression of Russia against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has generated a historical mass outflow of people fleeing the conflict, unseen in Europe since World War II. While there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the potential length of stay of these refugees in their host countries, many of the working-age adults will seek to work during their stay. This brief reviews the distribution of Ukrainian refugees across European countries and their demographic characteristics. It discusses the existing evidence about the labour market integration of refugees, and applies this information to the case of Ukrainian refugees to provide estimates of the number of active and employed Ukrainian refugees in European countries by the end of 2022 and compares these results to the impact of previous large inflows of refugees, in particular the 2014-17 arrivals.
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27/07/2022
Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has forced millions of Ukrainians to flee the country. This historic mass outflow, unseen in Europe since World War II, has sparked an unprecedented mobilisation of institutions and host communities in OECD countries to offer support. Effective communication constitutes an essential tool for co-ordinating this crisis response, enabling Ukrainian refugees to access relevant information about their rights and services provided to them, while also helping to prevent particularly vulnerable migrants from becoming victims of human trafficking and other crimes. In parallel, many hosting countries have used targeted communication to co-ordinate individual and civic society support and to inform the public about crisis responses, migration and integration policies. This policy brief examines communication strategies and best practices across the OECD countries in the current crisis context, drawing from results of a series of OECD NETCOM meetings.
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22/07/2022
This note examines which regional economies in Europe are most exposed to rising gas prices on the basis of their dependency on gas intensive manufacturing sectors such as chemicals or basic metals. Based on OECD calculations we find that the employment shares of the most gas-intensive manufacturing sectors are largest in some regions of Central Europe and Northern Italy, as well as in certain regions of Sweden and Finland.
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22/07/2022
The impacts of the war in Ukraine will be felt severely within OECD economies, especially in border regions on the front-line of the humanitarian refugee crisis. The economic impacts, in particular those driven by rising energy prices, will also be spatially differentiated, affecting some regions more than others. Italy is no exception, with gas-intensive industries concentrated in northern regions, and wheat-based food and farming prevailing in southern regions and islands. While, overall, Russia accounted for a minor share of Italian exports, some regions and industries are more vulnerable than others to falls in bilateral trade, including destinations popular with high per-capita expenditure Russian tourists.
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06/07/2022
The impacts of the war in Ukraine will be felt severely within OECD economies, especially in border regions on the front-line of the humanitarian refugee crisis. The economic impacts, in particular those driven by rising energy prices, will also be spatially differentiated, affecting some regions more than others. Italy is no exception, with gas-intensive industries concentrated in northern regions, and wheat-based food and farming prevailing in southern regions and islands. While, overall, Russia accounted for a minor share of Italian exports, some regions and industries are more vulnerable than others to falls in bilateral trade, including destinations popular with high per-capita expenditure Russian tourists.
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05/07/2022
Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine has sown catastrophe in the country; destroying lives, homes, and infrastructure. The war has also created profound and asymmetric economic and social impacts across the world, including many that are likely to be long lasting. Managing the humanitarian crisis, and the flow of refugees, is an immediate priority. Yet, governments at all levels are also grappling with the implications of further disruptions to supply chains and travel, and rising prices, which are jeopardising efforts to rebuild their economies after COVID-19. Because these impacts will not be felt equally within OECD countries, they have important implications for regional development policies – not least in the wake of the spatial challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents an early assessment of the impact of the war in Ukraine across OECD regions looking at several dimensions including refugee flows, energy price increase, disruption of trade flows and GVCs, and tourism.
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01/07/2022
Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to the most important humanitarian crisis in the OECD area since World War II, affecting millions of people and a severe economic, social and educational shock of uncertain duration and magnitude. This policy brief discusses how VET systems in host countries can become more inclusive and supportive of Ukrainians displaced by Russia’s large-scale aggression, building on OECD work on VET for young refugees, an analysis of VET in Ukraine, and first policy responses to the current crisis. Ukraine has strong VET provision at upper secondary level, and young people have strong interests in occupations which are commonly entered through VET. This policy brief argues that providing VET in host countries can be key in valuing and further building the skills of refugees from Ukraine, to the benefit of the Ukrainians concerned, host country labour markets, and for the rebuilding of Ukraine.
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01/07/2022
The policy brief argues that as donations are flowing into Ukraine to support its recovery, the country’s plan for infrastructure reconstruction needs to ensure that resources are spent efficiently by addressing priorities and focusing on affordability. The approach requires a masterplan that articulates clear objectives, in line with the State’s ambitions in strategic areas such as digitalisation and decarbonisation, and consistent with Ukraine’s future accession path to the European Union, with a list of reconstruction projects. In this context, devising strategies that minimise the risk of procurement failures will be a policy priority.
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01/07/2022
To support its most vulnerable citizens in the context of the Russian large-scale aggression against its territory, Ukraine needs both immediate actions and long-term policies. The war is exacerbating pre-existing disadvantages of children, women, elderly people, and people with disabilities. In the short term, actions are urgently needed to rebuild critical assets for providing adequate housing and access to quality basic services for all. Significant medium-to-long term employment and social priorities pre-existing to the invasion must also be addressed, such as youth unemployment and access of internally displaced persons to public employment services.
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01/07/2022
This policy response addresses implications for public governance in Ukraine caused by Russia's large-scale aggression. It looks at impacts and development initiatives related to public administration reform, rule of law, public integrity and anti-corruption, as well as multi-level governance. The policy response suggests some key considerations for policy makers as part of Ukraine's recovery efforts.
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Copyright: OECD; Shutterstock; Child on a swing: Shutterstock/Drop of light
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