Destroyed lives, destroyed homes and destroyed infrastructure are the immediate consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The war also imperils the world's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic: inflation, food security, energy security and further supply-chain pressures are among the many challenges policy makers worldwide must tackle. As the global ramifications of the conflict begin to bite, the OECD is bringing together its latest insights, analysis and data to shed light on the policy challenges ahead.
The OECD Council, comprising the Organisation's 38 member countries, condemns Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine as a clear violation of international law and a serious threat to the rules-based international order.
The participation of Russia and Belarus in OECD bodies has been suspended, while the Organisation is working on new measures to strengthen support for the democratically-elected government of Ukraine, including for recovery and reconstruction.
Targeting support to the most vulnerable households would be more effective than measures aimed at lowering energy prices – and would reinforce the energy transition and limit effects on government budgets.
Strong vocational education and training (VET) systems in host countries could play a vital role in supporting young Ukrainians displaced by war – and help both host country labour markets and the rebuilding of Ukraine.
Unprecedented policy responses and companies' decisions in response to the war are raising manifold implications for international investment policy, and capital and investment flows.
The OECD–Ukraine partnership
Ukraine and the OECD have been working closely together since 1991 to improve governance and economic development. A Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Co-operation (MoU) was signed in 2014 to drive forward efforts to address the country's public policy challenges.
The OECD draws on its multidisciplinary expertise, policy best practices and cross-country data analysis as part of on-going efforts to support Ukraine's reform efforts and strengthen its institutions.
A sharp rise in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is hitting real wages hard.
The two countries account for about 30% of global wheat exports and significant portions of corn, mineral fertilisers, natural gas and oil, which will force lower-income households in particular to cut back on other items to pay for basic energy and food needs. The poorest economies risk famine.
Brent Crude reached more than USD 125/barrel at the end of May, while the food price index spiked up to 155 from 121 a year earlier (2014–2016 = 100).
Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to the most important humanitarian crisis in the OECD area since World War II, affecting millions of people and a severe economic, social and educational shock of uncertain duration and magnitude. This policy brief discusses how VET systems in host countries can become more inclusive and supportive of Ukrainians displaced by Russia’s large-scale aggression, building on OECD work on VET for young refugees, an analysis of VET in Ukraine, and first policy responses to the current crisis. Ukraine has strong VET provision at upper secondary level, and young people have strong interests in occupations which are commonly entered through VET. This policy brief argues that providing VET in host countries can be key in valuing and further building the skills of refugees from Ukraine, to the benefit of the Ukrainians concerned, host country labour markets, and for the rebuilding of Ukraine.
Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine has contributed to high energy prices around the globe, triggering responses from governments. Governments across the OECD and in key non-Member economies have rolled out significant support to shield households and firms from the impacts of the high energy prices that followed the strong recovery in demand in the aftermath of the COVID-19 slump and the fallout of the war in Ukraine. While relatively simple to introduce and communicate in general, measures that act to lower the price of energy are not targeted and weaken incentives to reduce energy use when supply is tight.
The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.This issue includes a general assessment of the macro-economic situation and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD Members as well as for selected partner economies.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a major energy supply and security crisis that has sent commodity prices to new highs, with wider implications for the global economy.The conflict has put further considerable pressure on natural gas markets and raised uncertainty in the context of an already tight market. Europe has been at the epicentre of market tensions since the beginning of the heating season, resulting from the combination of lower than average underground storage inventory – principally from sites partly owned or controlled by Gazprom – and a sharp year-on-year drop in Russian pipeline supplies. Lower Russian supplies have largely been compensated by LNG, turning Europe into the premium market and drawing cargoes away from Asia Pacific and other regions. The resulting tight supply, high prices, and heightened market uncertainty have led to a downward revision in global gas consumption growth, which as a result is expected to turn negative for 2022.This new issue of the quarterly Gas Market Report features a detailed review of 2021’s gas supply and demand fundamentals, an analysis of recent developments in global gas markets during the northern hemisphere’s heating season, and an updated near-term outlook for 2022.
This work is the first region-focused energy outlook to be published by the IEA since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and the 26th Conference of the Parties in Glasgow, where participants reaffirmed their commitments to tackle climate change. The challenges facing energy policy makers – to provide clean, secure and affordable energy to all – have been made even more urgent by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This report highlights how countries in Southeast Asia can respond to the current energy crisis in ways that improve their energy security and also advance worldwide efforts to mitigate climate change.
Renewable electricity capacity additions broke another record in 2021 and biofuels demand almost recovered to pre-Covid levels, despite the continuation of logistical challenges and increasing prices. However, the Russian Federation’s (hereafter, “Russia”) invasion of Ukraine is sending shock waves through energy and agriculture markets, resulting in an unprecedented global energy crisis. In many countries, governments are trying to shelter consumers from higher energy prices, reduce dependence on Russian supplies and are proposing policies to accelerate the transition to clean energy technologies.Renewable energy has great potential to reduce prices and dependence on fossil fuels in short and long term. Although costs for new solar PV and wind installations have increased, reversing a decade-long cost reduction trend, natural gas, oil and coal prices have risen much faster, therefore actually further improving the competitiveness of renewable electricity. However, how rapidly renewables can substitute fossil fuels hinges on several uncertainties and will depend on many factors. Will renewable electricity sources defy this global energy crisis and continue to expand quickly despite emerging political and macroeconomic challenges? At the same time, growth in biofuels demand faces significant headwinds from both lower transport demand growth and high biofuel prices. Will demand growth resume at historical rates?In exploring the most recent market and policy developments as of April 2022, our Renewable Energy Market Update forecasts new global renewable power capacity additions and biofuel demand for 2022 and 2023. It also discusses key uncertainties and policy-related implications that may affect projections for 2023 and beyond.
This pilot report, elaborated before Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine, examines Ukraine’s anti-corruption framework and practices based on the criteria to test the new methodology for the 5th round of monitoring under the Istanbul Anti-Corruption Action Plan. The report analyses Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions, investigation and prosecution of corruption offences and the overall enforcement framework. For each area of analysis, the report identifies areas for improvement and provides recommendations.
This report assesses the immediate impact of Russia’s war against the people of Ukraine on global financial markets, and the continuing potential for spillovers into those markets. While the war has not yet caused a number of existing vulnerabilities to fully crystallise, high levels of uncertainty remain, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions. The report reviews a range of interrelated channels which could transmit shocks from Russia’s war to global financial markets, from direct exposures across sectors, to the effects of higher commodity prices, and impacts on investor sentiment. In doing so, it underlines areas within the financial system where enhanced scrutiny from supervisors and policy makers may be necessary to manage the elevated risks arising from the war going forward.
This blog, by Cem Özgüzel and Lukas Kleine-Rueschkamp, economists at the OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, discusses what the lessons from previous refugee crises can teach us on the importance of helping refugees into jobs swiftly, and supporting their mental well-being.
This report presents the latest information on the nature and scope of the refugee crisis as well as the policy response in OECD countries. The latter covers information on the entry and stay conditions for Ukrainian nationals as well as information on the reception support available in terms of housing, subsistence means, and access to social services and to integration measures.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has triggered unprecedented policy responses around the globe. These policy measures, as well as decisions by multinational companies, raise manifold implications for international investment policy, and capital and investment flows. This report provides an overview of the implications, both immediate and longer-term, in what remains a quickly evolving environment.
After the immediate needs of food, medical and psychosocial care, and housing, comes education. According to the UNHCR and UNICEF, “education for refugee children is arguably the best means available to help them, here and now, and to transform their futures.” Estonia is one of the countries on the front line for refugees fleeing the war. We talk to Viivian Jõemets, Chief Expert at the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research, specialising in language learning and migration, and OECD analyst Lucie Cerna, specialising in education and refugees, about how to best continue schooling and vocational training for refugee children and teenagers.
Russia's late February invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a devastating and ongoing humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, with thousands of civilian deaths. At least four million Ukrainians have fled the country and nearly seven million are internally displaced. Beyond Ukraine, the conflict is upending the global economy, deepening pressure on vulnerable households still reeling from the pandemic. And with Russia and Ukraine as major exporters of wheat, the war could destabilise the global food supply and has prompted the U.N. to warn that food insecurity could rise. In March, the OECD released an in-depth report on the Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine. The OECD estimates that global economic growth will drop by more than one percentage point this year due to the conflict, and already high inflation could rise by an additional 2.5 percentage points globally. In this podcast, OECD Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary General Laurence Boone discusses the conflict’s humanitarian and economic implications, and details the OECD’s recommendations for how governments can help insulate their populations from the impact.
This blog by Lucie Cerna and Jody McBrien from the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills shares some key lessons for meeting the learning, social and emotional needs of refugee students from OECD work on earlier crises.
This blog, by Haje Schütte of the OECD’s Development Co-operation Directorate, discusses how Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries can help Poland, Hungary and the Slovak Republic face the impact of Ukrainian refugees.
This blog, by Lamia Kamal-Chaoui, Director of the OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, looks at how the war in Ukraine could hold back the fragile tourism recovery and add uncertainty about future prospects and investment.