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War in Ukraine
The policy challenges
NEW: OECD launches four-year Ukraine Country Programme
The OECD and the Government of Ukraine have launched a four-year Country Programme that will support Ukraine’s agenda for reform, recovery and reconstruction and will help it advance its ambitions to join the OECD and European Union. This will provide vital support for Ukraine during war, while ensuring the best use of reconstruction aid to promote economic development and the welfare of citizens.
Signed on 7 June 2023 at the annual OECD Ministerial Council Meeting in Paris by OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and in Kyiv by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, the Programme consists of 31 policy reviews and capacity-building projects. It envisages Ukraine’s participation in 24 OECD bodies, as well as adherence to more than 70 OECD legal instruments over the four years.
The Country Programme is an established OECD tool that enables selected Partner economies to draw on OECD expertise and best practices, strengthen institutions, and build capacity for successful policy reforms.
The OECD's responses to Russia's aggression against Ukraine
The OECD Council has condemned Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in the strongest possible terms as a clear violation of international law and a serious threat to the rules-based international order, and expresses its solidarity with the Ukrainian people.
See official statements:
> OECD Council statement, 24 February 2022
> OECD Secretary-General: initial measures, 25 February 2022
> OECD Secretary-General: further measures, 8 March 2022
> Statement from OECD Secretary-General, one year on, 24 February 2023
OECD–Ukraine: A reinforced partnership
Ukraine is a prospective Member of the OECD. Since February 2022, the OECD has broadened, deepened and strengthened its engagement and co-operation with Ukraine, building on several decades of work. An OECD-Ukraine Liaison Office was opened in Kyiv in February 2023.
Despite challenges due to Russia's full-scale invasion, the OECD has continued to support Ukraine on several targeted policy areas. These include subnational capacities, competition in the Ukrainian electricity sector and refugees.
NEW: Lessons for Ukraine
Education in a time of war
The disruption of the education of millions of Ukrainian children demands policy action. In two new initiatives, the OECD looks at what Ukraine's policymakers can take from other countries' experiences, and draws on data on Ukrainian refugees to launch a new interactive dashboard.
> Learning During Crisis: Insights for Ukraine From Around the World: How can other countries' educational experiences support Ukraine's children – and bolster the re-modelling of an education system fit for the future?
> Ensuring Continued Learning for Ukrainian Refugee Students (interactive dashboard): explore the OECD's new dashboard based on data taken by OECD countries that have sought to integrate Ukrainian refugees in their education systems
Latest OECD analysis
GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
How should policymakers assess global value chain risks? A new OECD paper looks at the economic dependencies and implications for policy.
Refugees and the labour market
Many of the 4.7m refugees registered in the EU by mid-November have high formal qualifications, but early employment has been in low-skilled jobs – putting the challenge of skill transferability under scrutiny.
Fiscal Outlook
Supply shocks have driven up energy prices and inflation – which in turn is leading to increasing borrowing costs. This is leading a weakening outlook for government revenues.
Rebuilding Ukraine
Ukraine's ambitious regional development reforms since 2014 were key to its resilience in 2022. Continued reform will bolster its post-war reconstruction efforts.
The future of science in Ukraine
OECD countries can build on new and strengthened scientific relationships to relaunch science in Ukraine and support the country’s recovery after the war.
Disinformation
Systematic information manipulation and disinformation have been part of Russia's operational toolkit in its assault on Ukraine. How should democracies respond?
Trade, sanctions, and household income
A simulated 40% reduction in bilateral trade with Russia in all goods and services would have a notable negative real income effect on households in some European G7 countries in the medium term. However, households in Russia would have to withstand a significantly larger negative impact – roughly double the effect of eliminating oil dependency on Russia.
At least 70% of Russia’s imports of, among other items, electronics, motor vehicles and parts, machinery and equipment, chemicals, and business services are from the G7, Europe and Australia. Together, restrictions on exports to Russia from these countries would have an almost 50% larger impact on Russian household income than if these countries restricted imports from Russia.
This also highlights an important point: the benefits of trade – and here the harm potentially inflicted with trade sanctions – is at least as much about Russia's imports as it is about its exports.
Explore OECD work on Ukraine
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30/06/2023
This market study analyses Ukraine’s electricity sector from a competition perspective. It provides a detailed description and assessment of the regulatory framework within which the Ukrainian electricity markets operate, as well as an analysis of the obstacles to competition in the wholesale and retail markets. This report includes recommendations to address the underlying causes of ineffective competition that, if implemented in the recovery phase following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, can contribute to achieving a well-functioning, competitive electricity sector.
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24/06/2023
The OECD’s Development Co-operation Profiles compile and analyse verified statistics and trends on how development assistance is allocated geographically, to sectors, multilateral and civil society organisations, cross-cutting priorities such as gender equality and women’s economic empowerment and the environment and climate, and to mobilise private finance. The profiles cover official and philanthropic providers of aid, official development assistance (ODA) and development finance. These providers include members of the OECD and its Development Assistance Committee (DAC), other countries and philanthropic foundations. The profiles also give an overview of key strategic and policy priorities for development co-operation, the institutional set-up and evaluation systems.The Development Co-operation Profiles are published annually and are a pillar of the OECD’s Development Co-operation Report. For more than 50 years, the Development Co-operation Report has brought new evidence, analysis and ideas to the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and international community more broadly, shaping policy reform, behaviour change and promoting best practices in development co-operation. Each year the report analyses a fresh policy issue that is timely, relevant or challenging for development co-operation policy and finance. The main report also includes shorter profiles of each provider that present key trends through infographics.
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30/05/2023
From the onset of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, most refugee arrivals have been women and children, creating unique challenges for integration. The share of women among adult refugees is around 70% in most host countries and many have arrived with children, with the share of minors around 30%. Most OECD countries are supporting the socio-economic integration of Ukrainian refugee women through their pre-existing mainstream integration systems. Refugee integration policies have been, however, often created with different gender and educational profiles in mind, which may weaken outcomes in the longer term. There are some promising targeted measures available in OECD countries to support the socio-economic integration of Ukrainian refugee women. These include counselling, networking opportunities, training, and work placements, but also general community-building activities aimed at women.
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21/04/2023
School destructions, population displacement or school closures mean that children in Ukraine have experienced varied disruptions in their education experience. Interventions that seek to reduce the variation in student learning levels need to accompany efforts to resume learning and deliver high-quality education for all. This brief puts the focus on academic interventions Ukraine could introduce to support learning recovery. It first examines strategies for assessing students’ skill levels and identifying potential learning losses in the current context. It then focuses on academic strategies the Ministry of Education can implement in the short and medium-term to help students recover lost learning opportunities, including adapting instructional strategies and pedagogies to individual needs, adapting the time of instruction, providing curricular flexibility and enabling fluid learning pathways within the school system. The brief concludes by putting forward a range of policy responses that can enhance the long-term effectiveness of learning recovery strategies in Ukraine.
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19/04/2023
The current energy crisis calls for energy saving measures to accompany long-term technical and structural solutions. However, a range of barriers makes it hard for consumers to change their energy consumption. Changing behaviour is the result not only of responses to prices but also of expectations, habits, and biases. Policy makers should factor in these behavioural aspects when designing energy saving measures. The choice of message that policymakers send to consumers, how and when the information is provided to households and through which channels can make a difference in changing consumption behaviours. Moreover, it is crucial that the right incentives and policies are in place to ensure that behavioural changes can effectively take place. The effectiveness of energy saving measures should also be monitored to gauge evolutions in behaviours and identify solutions to behavioural barriers.
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28/03/2023
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had devastating impacts on the people of Ukraine. The consequences stemming from the war have imperilled the world's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and are reshaping and disrupting global supply chains, with ramifications for food security, energy, and other critical sectors. The war has also put a spotlight on the role of businesses operating in the region, facing heightened challenges in maintaining responsible business conduct (RBC) in high-risk settings. In this highly dynamic context, businesses should consider risks of being linked or contributing to adverse impacts on people, planet and society via their operations or business relationships. This note takes stock of how Russia’s war against Ukraine has had an impact on and shaped considerations for RBC.
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01/03/2023
Policy makers are increasingly grappling with the stability implications of global value chains (GVCs), as widespread supply shortages following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine have disrupted the economic recovery and contributed to high inflation. This paper provides a tool to assess vulnerabilities in GVCs by drawing a detailed map of dependencies based on new indicators constructed from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output tables. The key findings are as follows. First, GVC dependencies increase with both the size of foreign exposures and the length of foreign value chains. Second, in some industries, such as the automotive and ICT industries, vulnerabilities from high GVC dependence are amplified by high geographic concentration of suppliers or buyers. Third, the People’s Republic of China is the most critical choke point in GVCs across a broad range of industries, both as a dominant supplier and as a dominant buyer.
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21/01/2023
Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing a humanitarian, social and economic crisis for the Ukrainian people. The consequences of this full-scale military invasion are disrupting the global supply of commodities, sharply increasing food and energy prices, and threating the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries with established commercial and financial ties with the economies of Russia and Ukraine appear to be particularly vulnerable.Assessing the Impact of Russia’s War against Ukraine on Eastern Partner Countries investigates the exposure of Eastern Partner countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine) to the economic shocks caused by the war, and in particular through the impact that the conflict is having on inflation, migration, remittances, investment and trade.This report is published as part of the multi-country project “EU4Business: From Policies to Action – phase 2”, implemented in the Eastern Partnership with the financial support of the European Union within the EU4Business initiative.
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20/01/2023
Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on international trade and supply chains. In February 2022, global trade was approaching pre-Covid levels in absolute terms, but with a different product and geographical composition resulting in a continued sense of tension in the trading system. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has added a new dimension of challenges as it has led to deliberate radical interruptions of trade linkages between Russia, Ukraine and many industrialised economies, with significant repercussions on prices of key commodities in the energy and agricultural sectors.
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06/01/2023
Policy response
Even though much uncertainty remains regarding the length of stay of Ukrainian refugees in host countries, continued fighting has dimmed prospects of an early return and the issue of labour market integration is becoming increasingly pertinent. Finding gainful employment commensurate with refugees’ educational and professional qualifications supports new arrivals in becoming self-sufficient and boosts the local economy. It also enables them to use and possibly further enhance their skills, which is crucial for the future recovery of Ukraine. This policy response outlines the existing evidence on the socio-economic profiles and labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees in OECD countries as well as relevant policies to further support labour market integration. Findings suggest that the labour market inclusion of Ukrainian refugees has been faster compared to other refugee groups. That said, much of the early employment uptake by Ukrainian refugees has been concentrated in low-skilled jobs, thus skills mismatches are widespread.
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05/01/2023
Less than two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s illegal, unprovoked and unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine has triggered the biggest military confrontation in Europe since World War II. Many OECD countries have reacted to Russia’s aggression by providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and by imposing economic sanctions on Russia, which has accentuated supply chain disruptions, especially in the energy sector. A combination of these supply shocks with a demand shock caused by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to tackle the pandemic has created inflationary pressures on a scale not seen in decades. Central banks around the world are acting to fulfil their price stability mandates by increasing interest rates and by engaging in quantitative tightening (primarily the selling of government bonds to reduce central bank balance sheets), all of which put pressure on borrowing costs at a time when governments are engaging in expansionary fiscal policy to alleviate the impact of inflation. The objective of this policy note is to examine the main consequences of this challenging environment for the fiscal stance of different levels of governments. These include the weakening outlook for government revenues in times of high expenditure pressures from a more rapid energy transition as well as high borrowing costs.
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02/12/2022
<img src="https://assets.oecdcode.org/ilibraryres/img/eufunded-banner3.png" class="img-responsive" style="width:80%; padding-bottom:5px;" alt="EU Funded Note"/>Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Ukraine had made significant progress in implementing ambitious regional development and decentralisation reforms. These reforms resulted in the creation of 1 469 amalgamated municipalities, the establishment of an elaborate multi-level regional development planning framework, as well as a significant increase in local public service delivery, and public funding for regional and local development. However, the reforms faced a number of challenges, many of which have been significantly exacerbated by Russia’s war against Ukraine. These challenges include increasing regional economic, demographic and well-being disparities, a fragmented regional development funding framework, as well as marked discrepancies in municipal administrative, human resource and fiscal capacity. This report presents an in-depth analysis of Ukraine’s progress in implementing its multi-level governance reforms and explores the role of subnational governments in disaster management. From there, it recommends how Ukraine, together with international partners, can use multi-level governance, regional development and decentralisation to support subnational reconstruction and recovery to address urgent humanitarian needs, rebuild local economies and communities, and strengthen their resilience.
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02/12/2022
Policy response
This policy response highlights how Ukraine’s regional development and decentralisation reforms, adopted after the 2014 Maidan Revolution, have contributed to the resilience of the country’s regions and municipalities following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Based on the OECD report Rebuilding Ukraine by Reinforcing Regional and Municipal Governance, it also sets forth how the achievements of Ukraine’s post-2014 multi-level governance reforms can provide the stepping stones for an effective subnational reconstruction and recovery. Finally, it presents concrete recommendations on how policymakers can leverage local expertise and further build subnational capacities to design and implement reconstruction projects and track progress, as well as contribute to longer-term sustainable regional and local development.
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02/12/2022
European Neighbourhood East countries have been actively engaged in improving service delivery for citizens and businesses for some time. Some have opted for flagship initiatives (often with large-scale, one-stop shop solutions), some for digitalisation of services, while some have taken an incremental approach towards the service delivery modernisation process. This comparative paper outlines the state of play in the design and delivery of public administrative services in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Public administrative services cover the vast array of interactions with (and within) government: making enquiries, applications, registrations and payments, and receiving information, documentation, decisions and funds. These contacts allow service users (citizens, businesses and non-governmental organisations) to exercise rights, access entitlements, execute obligations and achieve ambitions. As well as the description and analysis of the general service delivery framework(s), institutional set-up and practical implementation, this paper presents a comparative analysis of a set of life events and highlights inspiring practices from the different countries.
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25/11/2022
As foreign direct investment (FDI) can help mitigate the repercussions of climate change, understanding what factors attract energy FDI is important. A large share of energy FDI originated from outside the energy sector, and given that renewable power FDI also comes from outside the energy sector, it is worthwhile to examine if drivers behind this type of FDI differ from what encourages investment by firms operating within the energy sector. This paper demonstrates that renewable energy FDI has been increasing, while FDI in fossil fuels is potentially slowing down. Results of the empirical analysis show that both the broader investment conditions and the strength of climate policies are vital for ensuring the favourable environment for renewable energy FDI, but the extent to which these factors impact investment decisions varies depending on where the investors come from: greenfield investors from outside the energy sector seem less responsive to the climate mitigation policies of host countries, whereas their location choices are tightly linked to the broader investment conditions in the destination economies.
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25/11/2022
Policy response
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the largest forced displacement crisis in recent history, with a high proportion of those fleeing being children and young people. The stressful and traumatic experiences Ukrainian refugees may have encountered can lead to a variety of mental health issues, which, if unaddressed, may have lasting impacts on their development. Schools in host countries play a vital role in addressing refugee learners’ needs, providing a space where they can feel safe, continue their learning, and access psychosocial support services. Schools can also serve as sites for social and emotional learning, which is essential for helping students navigate the challenges associated with adjusting to a new culture and for facilitating their inclusion in education and society. This brief discusses how education systems in host countries can support the social and emotional well-being of Ukrainian students, drawing on existing examples of policies and practices.
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15/11/2022
Policy response
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is demonstrating the new role of commercial space systems in crisis management. The improved availability of commercial satellite data and signals is contributing to the quality and resilience of government systems, with telecommunications and follow-ups of military actions and impacts on the ground for civilians. But the war has also revealed vulnerabilities of space infrastructure and in global supply chains. It also unleashed a series of new threats, notably unanticipated third-party uses of satellite data and disruptions of civilian telecommunications. Furthermore, the current geopolitical situation raises questions about the future of international co-operation in space activities, at a time when it is urgently needed to collectively manage the use of orbital resources. This policy note includes OECD recommendations for policy responses to improve the resilience of space infrastructure, manage access to and use of data and signals and ensure long-term sustainability of space activities.
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04/11/2022
For decades, governments have relied on space systems for intelligence gathering and satellite connectivity in remote areas, but today’s situation marks a distinct break with the past. Extended coverage, advances in digital technologies and, importantly, free and/or commercial availability of space products allow many new uses by both government and non-government actors. This brings important benefits for users and citizens, but also leads to new challenges in terms of data management, infrastructure and supply chain resilience, and international co-operation. This paper uses illustrations from the war in Ukraine to highlight recent developments in the sector, placing them in a broader context of digitalisation and government space investments. It discusses the growing importance of space technologies for society and provides policy options and resources from other strains of OECD work.
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04/11/2022
Policy response
This policy response reflects on how policy actions can shape the future of Ukraine’s science system and contribute to post-war recovery. It draws on several OECD indicators and highlights the challenge of “brain drain” as a structural problem that is aggravated by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. It then makes the case for international co-ordination on talent circulation and exchange to prevent the irreversible loss of scientific expertise for key industries and the education of future generations in Ukraine. The policy response further argues that OECD countries can put in place new and strengthened scientific relationships with Ukraine, while also implementing temporary measures to assist both displaced scientists and those remaining in their posts under very challenging conditions.
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04/11/2022
Policy response
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is aggravating the long-term trend of R&D under-investment in Ukraine, as well as accelerating brain drain. In the reconstruction period, science, technology and innovation have the potential to contribute to the societal transformation of Ukraine, feeding into an innovation-centric industrial strategy, which also includes developing linkages with selected parts of the academic sector, which should themselves be strengthened to serve that purpose. It can also significantly contribute to Ukraine’s green transition, through stimulation of grassroots entrepreneurship in co-creation with academia, in particular on the basis of Ukraine’s small but excellent scientific production in the areas of environmental and planetary sciences. The brief provides specific policy recommendations which can help policy makers address the binding constraints towards the attainment of these goals.
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