The job expectations of students have changed little since the start of the century, are increasingly concentrated and bear little relation to actual patterns of labour market demand.
The State of Global Teenage Career Preparation
Abstract
After students completing the PISA survey have written in an occupational expectation, analysts use the International Standardised Classification of Occupations (ISCO) to classify their choice. This allows comparisons to be made within and between countries and over time. ISCO was last updated in 2008 and puts all jobs into ten major groups.
PISA 2022 shows that the occupational expectations of students are highly concentrated. Looking at the ten most popular job plans shows that on average across the OECD 50% of girls and 44% of boys expect to work in one of ten jobs. Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2 show the ten most common job expectations for girls and boys in 2000 and 2022 as an average for students in all OECD countries participating in the surveys. Career interests are heavily shaped by gender, but variation is reducing. Whereas three occupations in 2000 appealed to both girls and boys, by 2022 this figure had risen to five. Across the OECD, girls are now less likely to anticipate working as a hairdresser or office clerk and more likely to plan on working as an architect or police officer.
Since 2000, levels of this career concentration – which in some studies is associated with poorer ultimate employment outcomes later on – have steadily increased. Figure 2.3 tracks the average percentage of girls and boys saying they will work in one of the ten most popular job choices within countries for which data are available.
A striking finding from the PISA 2022 data is the strong growth in teenage expectations of working in one narrow field of employment: the professions (Figure 2.4). ISCO major group 2 includes six subgroups of professionals related to: science and engineering; healthcare; teaching; business administration; information and communications technology; and legal, social and cultural professions. Eighteen OECD countries have participated in every PISA cycle since 2000 which asked students to share their occupational plans. As Figure 2.4 shows, over this period the proportion of students from these countries expecting to work as a professional has increased from 48% to 59% while interest in all other major groups of employment has remain steady or fallen. For all OECD countries participating in PISA 2022, on average 58% of students who expressed a job expectation said that they anticipated working as a professional. Students anticipating such an occupation are more likely to be girls (69%), students from the most socially advantaged quartile (72%), high performers on the PISA assessments (73%) and residents of urban areas (64%).
While large numbers of students expect to become a professional in every OECD country, levels of interest vary (Figure 2.5). In some countries such as Canada, Mexico and Costa Rica, more than 70% of students say that they will work in this field. Expectations are lowest in countries with historically strong systems of vocational education and training. While countries vary in the proportions of workers in the actual labour market who are employed as professionals, in no OECD country is there greater demand for employment than the potential supply as indicated by student job expectations.
ISCO allows for comparisons to be made between student job plans and actual distributions of workers within labour forces. Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6 compare patterns of student occupational expectations by ISCO major group and actual patterns of labour market distribution in two countries. In England, three times more students expect to work as a professional than there are actual jobs available. In Norway, this ratio is lower.
Note. Data on the most popular occupational expectations of girls and boys for all countries participating in PISA 2022 are available on the OECD dashboard https://www. oecd.org/en/data/dashboards/career-readiness
Source. OECD PISA databases 2000 and 2022.
Note. Data on the most popular occupational expectations of girls and boys for all countries participating in PISA 2022 are available on the OECD dashboard https://www. oecd.org/en/data/dashboards/career-readiness
Source. OECD PISA databases 2000 and 2022.
Source: OECD PISA databases 2000-2022.
Note. The figure shows the average percentage of girls and boys from countries participating in PISA 2000, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018 and 2022 expecting to work in one of the ten most popular career choices for their gender as a proportion of all students expressing an occupational expectation. Participating countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Latvia, Mexico, Poland, United Kingdom and the United States.
Source. OECD PISA databases 2000-2022.
Note. Major group 2 of the International Standardised Classification of Occupations includes six subgroups of professionals related to: science and engineering; healthcare; teaching; business administration; information and communications technology; and legal, social and cultural professions.
Source. OECD PISA data 2022.
Note: Census data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) contains information from all people in England and Wales.
Source. OECD PISA 2022 database and Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 8 December 2022; ONS website, statistical bulletin, Industry and occupation, England and Wales: Census 2021; Mann, A. et al., (2024), Teenage career development in England: A Review of PISA 2022 Data, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Note. Occupations are classified using the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08). Data on student career expectations is derived from the OECD PISA 2022 database, while actual labour market distributions reflect employment data from the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for 2022.
Source. OECD PISA 2022 database. ILO (2024), Employment by sex, age and occupation (thousands) - Annual. https://www.ilo.org/shinyapps/bulkexplorer54/?lang=en&id=EMP_TEMP_SEX_AGE_OCU_NB_A.
For all OECD countries participating in PISA 2022, on average 58% of students who expressed a job expectation said that they anticipated working as a professional.