Transport Outlook 2008

This short outlook is designed to test the potential for key policy instruments for mitigating emissions from road transport, and particularly from light duty vehicles, the largest source of CO2 emissions from transport (see Figure 1 and Table 1). It also examines uncertainties in the baseline scenario for the development of CO2 emissions from the sector. In contrast to the OECD’s Economic Outlook and the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, the Transport Outlook is produced making use of external modeling tools. The work uses the most transparent and robust model developed to date for the sector, the MoMo modeli constructed and maintained by the International Energy Agency and initially developed for the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. We are grateful to the MoMo-team for their willingness to share this product. The present document is only a first step towards the development of a full-fledged Transport Outlook. It is limited in scope, with its focus on road transport and on emissions of CO2. Despite the limitations, this mini-Outlook provides elements of a useful framework for discussions on the policy challenges presented by the risk of costly consequences from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. As will become clear, permanent reductions of CO2-emissions from transport are difficult to achieve because of strong underlying global growth in transport demand. At the same time, our scenarios suggest that emissions could be stabilized even with strong growth of demand, given immediate and continued efforts to reduce the sector’s carbon intensity. If stabilization is the goal, then finding cost-effective ways of achieving it becomes the critical issue.