This short outlook is designed to test the potential for key policy instruments for
mitigating emissions from road transport, and particularly from light duty vehicles, the largest
source of CO2 emissions from transport (see Figure 1 and Table 1). It also examines
uncertainties in the baseline scenario for the development of CO2 emissions from the sector. In
contrast to the OECD’s Economic Outlook and the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, the Transport
Outlook is produced making use of external modeling tools. The work uses the most transparent
and robust model developed to date for the sector, the MoMo modeli constructed and maintained
by the International Energy Agency and initially developed for the World Business Council for
Sustainable Development. We are grateful to the MoMo-team for their willingness to share this
product.
The present document is only a first step towards the development of a full-fledged
Transport Outlook. It is limited in scope, with its focus on road transport and on emissions of
CO2. Despite the limitations, this mini-Outlook provides elements of a useful framework for
discussions on the policy challenges presented by the risk of costly consequences from
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. As will become clear, permanent reductions of
CO2-emissions from transport are difficult to achieve because of strong underlying global growth
in transport demand. At the same time, our scenarios suggest that emissions could be stabilized
even with strong growth of demand, given immediate and continued efforts to reduce the sector’s
carbon intensity. If stabilization is the goal, then finding cost-effective ways of achieving it
becomes the critical issue.
Transport Outlook 2008
Focusing on CO2 Emissions from Road Vehicles
Working paper
OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers

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