Across the OECD, healthcare spending has typically outpaced economic growth in recent decades. While such spending has improved health outcomes, there are concerns about the financial sustainability of this upward trend, particularly as healthcare systems are predominantly funded from public resources in most OECD countries. To better explore this financial sustainability challenge, many countries and international institutions have developed forecasting models to project growth in future healthcare expenditure.

Despite methodological differences between forecasting approaches, a common set of healthcare spending drivers can be identified. Demographic factors, rising incomes, technological progress, productivity in the healthcare sector compared to the general economy (Baumol’s cost disease) and associated healthcare policies have all been shown to be key determinants of healthcare spending.