The role of China’s feed deficit in international grain markets
International grain prices experienced a sharp increase during the 2020/2021 marketing
season, most likely due to the unprecedented increase of imported grains by China.
What would be the possible impact on international grain markets if China remains
a strong grain importer? The scenario developed to explore the impact of such a development
shows that further increases in Chinese grain imports over the medium term could result
in a 4% to 25% increase in agriculture commodity prices compared to what was projected
in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030.