Alternative Futures for Global Food and Agriculture

We face the challenges of developing a global food system that will feed a growing and more affluent population while preserving sensitive ecosystems, competing for limited natural resources, increasing agricultural productivity growth while mitigating and adapting to climate change and other threats, and contributing to rural area well-being. This report develops three contrasting scenarios to illustrate alternative futures, based on several global economic models and extensive discussions with relevant stakeholders, and outlines policy considerations to help ensure that future needs are met in an economically, environmentally and socially sustainable manner.  The scenarios highlight the fundamental uncertainties surrounding forward-oriented decision making, and point to the crucial importance of international co-operation across multiple policy areas.

Published on February 18, 2016Also available in: French


Executive summary
Key trends and long-term scenarios: Framing the future of food and agriculture
Overview of main challenges and opportunities in food and agriculture
Policy and implementation strategies for the future of food and agriculture
Annexes3 chapters available
Models used for the quantification of scenarios and policy experiments
Quantification of scenarios and set-up of policy experiments
Additional results from the scenario quantification
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