Who pays for higher carbon prices?

This paper lays out an approach, and a research agenda, for assessing the impact of carbon pricing on household budgets. It relies on a rich set of available data and policy models and combines them in a way that is informative for mapping the gains and losses at the household level in the short term as countries transition to a low-carbon economy. After accounting for direct burdens from higher fuel prices, indirect effects from higher prices of goods other than fuel, and households’ behavioural responses, overall burdens are only mildly regressive. Recycling carbon-tax revenues back to households allows considerable scope for avoiding or cushioning losses for large parts of the population, and existing policy models can be used to design compensation measures that facilitate majority support for carbon tax packages.