Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture

This paper examines water risks for agriculture and outlines a typology of tools to support public authorities in anticipating, monitoring and assessing these risks. Agriculture faces multiple water risks including shortage, excess and poor water quality, alongside systemic risks from degraded freshwater systems and a destabilised water cycle. Monitoring and anticipating these risks is critical to sustaining agricultural production and protecting freshwater resources. Given the diverse water risks and decision contexts, the sector requires a suite of tools tailored to different risks and temporal and spatial scales. The relevance of specific tools depends on decisions being taken, with the highest value achieved when tools inform choices with high or irreversible costs. While technological progress is driving rapid tool development, gaps and challenges remain. Public authorities have a central role in promoting a robust data environment, while taking a long-term, holistic perspective to build systemic resilience.