Building Anticipatory Capacity with Strategic Foresight in Government

Annex B. Specific strategic foresight functions and global examples

Based on the OECD’s analysis, twenty-seven specific functions have been identified and are presented in the following section with examples from countries around the world. These specific functions may resemble other units established for other purposes such as for digitalisation and innovation, but each can be equally applied to anticipatory governance. These options can be presented as a point of discussion to explore:

• What could work within a current government context?

• Which are existing capabilities?

• Which serves best the purposes of anticipation within a public administration?

Global review of anticipatory functions and case examples

Network Convening and Public Engagement

Network convener (regions, agencies, etc.)

Some governments create organisations that serve as conveners and bring together different regions, agencies, or sectors to collaborate on foresight activities. These network conveners promote cross-fertilisation of knowledge and expertise, facilitate cross sectoral collaboration of ideas, and build futures capabilities and capacity to ensure a whole of government and organisational approach to strategic foresight.

The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) exemplifies this role within the European Union and as an inter-institutional network convener it brings together nine EU institutions and bodies which are committed to foresight and anticipatory governance.

At a country level, the UK Government Office for Science (GO-Science) with its transversal capacity to reach civil service plays a fundamental role in convening various foresight networks. These include:

• The Heads of Horizon Scanning Network for public servants with a responsibility for or interest in foresight and strategy

• The EmTech Community of Interest: a platform for government technology teams to collaborate and network

• Knowledge Mobiliser Network: helps civil servants to access diverse and high-quality expertise in science and technology across industry and academia to underpin policymaking.

Policy consensus-building capability

Achieving consensus on policy directions is often critical for governments exploring long-term challenges. Strategic foresight can facilitate this process by engaging diverse groups of stakeholders to achieve a common ground, underpin fairness, and align them on common policy goals.

In South Korea, the Foresight and Analysis of Mid- to Long-Term Future Conflicts for Policy Agenda Setting Project applied foresight to facilitate policy consensus. To highlight the role of foresight in long-term policy agenda-setting, this project involved collaboration between the Office for Government Policy Co-ordination from the Korean Prime Minister’s Secretariat and foresight researchers from the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Graduate School of Futures Strategy.

Another example is the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, which uses foresight methods to assess the long-term transformation of Germany’s energy system, facilitating policy consensus on meeting energy transition goals.

Distributed sense-making, consensus building, and exploratory body

There are examples from governments that are establishing whole of government networks and building on social capital to collectively interpret evolving trends and their related uncertainties, in order to explore and build consensus around potential future scenarios. This function should facilitate a fundamental use of foresight to engage in collaborative efforts where organisations, public sector actors and civil society can reach shared understandings and explorations of future possibilities.

Spain’s National Foresight and Strategy Office is placed at the centre of government and has the mandate to undertake large-scale foresight exercises and research. One example of a distributed sense-making foresight output was the report Spain 2050, which aimed to improve the understanding of social, economic and environmental challenges for the country. This effort allowed the Office to generate dialogues with all Spanish ministries and large groups of stakeholders, to consolidate a framework for a long-term national strategy.

In the context of an international organisation, the Strategy and Futures Team at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) prepares yearly trends reports specifically for UNDP colleagues around the world. The team engages with the different communities of practice in the international organisation to run workshops with over 500 participants and make sense of the most important signals for development.

Participatory futures – harvesting and sense-making, convening external stakeholders for visioning, scenario development, scanning

Participatory futures aim to engage a broad range of stakeholders in the foresight process to collaboratively develop and explore future scenarios and visions. Ultimately, governments want to prepare policies that are reflective of diverse societal needs. Examples of this are also mentioned in the function “Creation of safe space/space to challenge assumptions”, such as LAB 2050 (Portugal), Finland’s Dialogues on the Future and Lithuania’s vision for the future “Lithuania 2050”.

In the participatory process for Lithuania 2050, the Government Strategic Analysis Centre (STRATA), in collaboration with the University of Vilnius, systematically ensured iterative feedback at every step of the activities (see Figure A ‎B.1). Citizen and stakeholder engagement was integral from the outset and throughout the SMART approach (scoping, mobilising, anticipation and recommendations). The project included feedback and learning loops with citizens' assembly, open discussions with society to create shared visions, public consultations and expert surveys, and revision of strategic drafts with Parliament.

Figure A ‎B.1. Systematic foresight process Lithuania 2050

Source: STRATA

At the regional level, the Provincial Council of Gipuzkoa, in Spain, developed a programme called Building the Future (Etorkizuna Eraikiz) to promote and improve the open and collaborative governance in the Basque Country region. The programme incorporates public deliberation in the design of public policies, encouraging inclusiveness and ensuring effective participation. This programme resulted in active participation and empowerment of citizens with the organisation of foresight exercises based on co-creation and co-design, and with an experimental approach to projects.

Public values detection and legitimacy building for alternate policy approaches

Public engagement includes positive factors to act as a legitimising approach for innovative or alternative policy approaches. The OECD has been working with member countries on the efforts to improve civic engagement in line with measuring population trust in governments in order to understand how each country is acting on social cohesion and well-being (see OECD Better Life Index).

Alternatively, at a country-level, the Scottish Government National Performance Framework is aimed for all of Scotland and sets out a vision for collective well-being. To help achieve its purpose, the framework sets out “National Outcomes”. These outcomes describe the kind of Scotland it aims to create and reflect the values and aspirations of the people of Scotland. Ultimately these should be aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in order to help track progress in reducing inequality.

Although these two first examples do not necessarily include foresight as a principal component to promote civic engagement, it is possible to identify where foresight approaches have been applied to surface public values and build support for innovative or alternative policy approaches through wide and diverse stakeholder engagement and dialogue.

One of such is the Singaporean Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) that applied the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) methodology to explore the socio-economic aspirations of Singaporeans. Through this exercise, participants from the private and public sectors participated in a half-day workshop to discuss these aspirations in three areas: A society with diverse definitions of success, A Singapore with a more fulfilling pace of life, A Singapore with a strong vibrant economy in order to ensure social well-being.

Experimentation and Alternatives Exploration

Alternatives exploration and experimentation lab with special status/exemptions

Governments are establishing labs and centres with the freedom to experiment with alternative policies, often operating under certain regulatory exemptions to generate and facilitate innovation. This independence from political cycles provides the continuity needed for sustained innovation and foresight practices, preventing them from being disrupted by shifting political priorities. A case in point is Denmark’s MindLab, a pioneering government innovation lab that operated for 16 years before closing due to a shift in the Danish government’s focus from experimentation and innovation to digital transformation of the civil service (Guay 2018). Although the lab was initially conceived to last only a few years its longevity is evidence of the benefits it has provided to Denmark’s public administration.

In contrast, Nesta, based in the United Kingdom, is an independent innovation agency with a broad mandate to incentivise and promote the UK’s capacity to innovate. Its focus spans multiple areas which include public administration, public policy and social innovation. The agency runs a range of initiatives aimed at improving public services and driving social change, and it has been involved in foresight activities as an ability to advance innovation in these areas.

What can be probably considered a best-case example for this function, the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra which reports to the Finnish Parliament and that conducts foresight studies of Finland, spearheads the use of foresight and futures tools in the Finnish public sector. Sitra’s independence is the fact that it reports directly to the Finnish Parliament rather than to any specific government in power or political party. The unique status allows Sitra to operate and focus on long-term objectives for Finland without being influenced by short-term political agendas.

Experiment with emerging technologies

Some foresight initiatives focus specifically on experimenting with new technologies to test their potential impacts on society and governance. In Germany, the Fraunhofer IAO’s Center for Responsible Research and Innovation, developed the Social Foresight Lab, which embodies an innovative participatory approach to address complex challenges. The Social Foresight Lab allowed citizens to experiment with future solutions e.g., introducing prototypes of potential social and technological developments to their local contexts with respect to mobility, working and living. The experimentation with technological innovations involving end-users, the creation and expansion of innovation networks at the local level, and the promotion of mutual learnings were also identified as major contributions coming out of this initiative.

In the United States, the General Services Administration’s (GSA) Emerging Citizen Technology Programme brings together federal agencies through pilot programmes and collaborative communities. Its goal is to develop shared resources that enable the efficient and compliant adoption of emerging technologies, especially in cases where agencies identified business needs but lack clear guidance or sufficient resources. The programme has focused on technologies such as Artificial Intelligence for Citizen Services, Blockchain, Virtual/Augmented Reality, and Social Technology.

Service futures – oriented towards future needs of public service

Foresight efforts are also applied to anticipate and plan for public service needs to ensure that government services remain relevant and effective in meeting intergenerational fairness and future societal demands. This function should motivate and incentivise initiatives, labs and organisations that offer person-centred approaches such as exploring future personas to guarantee sustained impact and institutional responsiveness to challenges faced by citizens.

Between 2017 and mid-2020, the Service Innovation Team at New Zealand's Service Innovation Lab adopted cross-agency collaboration within the government. This diverse team, including service designers, software developers, and support staff under high-level oversight, engaged with external agencies, private entities, and community organisations. They focused on understanding and addressing citizens' challenges with the government's complex services by actively listening to their feedback.

In 2022, the United States Partnership for Public Service introduced the Futures Lab to support federal leaders in understanding external conditions and factors that impact their work. Serving as an innovative hub, the lab is a unique incubator for government to use foresight to explore challenges, investigate emerging issues, and strengthen skills, capacity and knowledge around foresight. An example of the work conducted by the Partnership is the “Foresight is 20/20” project to explore the Future of Congress as to how it would function in 2032 and how it will be capable of meeting the needs of its constituents.

Creation of a safe space / space to challenge assumptions

This function aims to encourage governments to establish environments where civil servants and society can openly challenge existing assumptions, explore new ideas, and think creatively about the future, without the constraints of current policy or political pressures. Around the world, there are examples where foresight projects have become a whole of society effort in the development of national strategies. One of which is Lithuania where dialogues and workshops with stakeholders in different regions were fundamental to develop Lithuania’s vision strategy “Lithuania 2050”.

In Finland, the Prime Minister’s Office in co-operation with the Timeout Foundation, organised 50 citizen Dialogues on the Future of Finland, as part of the Government Report on the Future. Citizens from various backgrounds were invited to share their thoughts, hopes and dreams about the future of Finland. After the dialogues were conducted, the Prime Minister’s Office analysed the outcomes of these dialogues alongside the results of its internal scenario process.

Similarly, in Portugal, LAB 2050 was developed by the Competence Centre for Planning, Policy and Foresight in Public Administration (PlanAPP). This project facilitated the collective creation of visions for a desirable and sustainable future for Portugal, aiming to meet aspirations of its citizens. The goal was to launch a nationwide debate on what kind of country Portugal should be in 2050, focused on building a shared vision.

Uncovering and testing assumptions of decision makers

There are unique processes designed to identify and challenge the underlying assumptions in policymaking, aimed at exploring how decisions can be made more robust in the face of future uncertainties.

One such example is the Learning Futures Group at the Singaporean Civil Service College, which focuses on using gaming as a method to model complex scenarios, and to harness collaborative foresight. The group explores the idea of immersing participants in diverse scenarios to embody ‘messy complexity’ and to make sense of images of the future, rather than predicting specific outcomes. The concept of incorporating worldviews into policymaking can be counterintuitive for policy officers, who are encouraged to consider how policies can impact society in various ways. The Learning Futures Group identified an opportunity to use simulations with foresight which allowed participants to first represent themselves in future scenarios (e.g. policymakers) and then embody different residents and stakeholders to experience how policies can impact and affect their livelihoods.

In France, a similar approach, called red teaming, involves immersion in scenarios to experience alternative futures of potential conflicts. The Ministry of Defence, through its Defence Innovation Agency (Agence de l’innovation de défense), created the Red Team initiative, a group of science fiction writers and illustrators who collaborate closely with scientific and military experts. Their goal is to conceive and explore future scenarios for armed conflicts and identify threats, blind spots and hidden barriers that limit the ability to imagine situations beyond conventional examples. In particular, the Red Team initiative anticipates technological, economic, societal, and environmental factors that could contribute to potential conflicts between 2030 and 2060.

Oversight and Evaluation

Evaluation of the future horizons of programmes of government

Foresight is also applied to assess the long-term impacts and outcomes of government programmes to ensure they are futures-proof, resilient to uncertainties, and aligned with strategic directions. This function encourages to take stock of government capacities to create better knowledge management and evaluation of future impacts of policies and spending decisions.

Following OECD’s recommendations in 2022, the National Audit Office of Finland conducted an assessment of the national foresight system designed to support whole-of-government decision making and long-term planning. The audit examined the economic factors and internal systems that constitute what the audit office refers to as the ‘operating environment’, namely the context in which foresight information is generated and the external turbulent conditions that drive the increasing demand for foresight in governance. Additionally, the audit identified development needs in the production, management and utilisation of foresight information. For instance, it highlighted the inconsistency and fragmentation of foresight activities within central government, which risks creating a knowledge gap that weakens strategic decision making and government responsiveness. To address these issues, the audit recommended that both the operating environment and foresight information should be processed in compliance with the Act on Information Management in Public Administration, suggesting improvements in dynamic capabilities and knowledge management. The assessment also included recommendations for adopting an ecosystem approach to ensure broader dissemination of information across government, which should allow for more coherent co-ordination and better alignment with the needs of potential users. This could be achieved by assigning a single actor to co-ordinate, share and act as a central repository of foresight information. The audit’s goal is to strengthen the systemic foundations for foresight activities, improve anticipatory governance and promote knowledge-based decision-making. Ultimately, the audit recognised the benefits of foresight and emphasised that foresight information is essential to the knowledge base for strategic decision making.

The UK Treasury’s Green Book guidance serves as an example of how futures-oriented thinking can support the evaluation of the long-term impacts of policy proposals, projects and programmes. In the Guide to Developing the Programme Business Case, the UK Treasury and Welsh government provide a framework for assessing spending proposals and offer a structured process for appraising, developing and planning to deliver the best social value for money. As part of preparing this economic case for programme delivery, one step in the framework includes scenario analysis, which is useful for assessing risks in variations of external conditions and considering how programme delivery options may be affected by socio-economic uncertainties. While the Finland audit emphasises improving the internal coherence and co-ordination of the foresight system across government, the UK Treasury’s Green Book focuses on integrating foresight, through scenario analysis, into specific decision-making processes for policy proposals and public spending.

Review or oversight of laws for consideration of futures/future generations

This function emphasises the importance of embedding foresight into legislative and policy review processes. Governments are encouraged to establish dedicated institutional mechanisms or processes to evaluate the long-term impact of laws and policies, ensuring that they consider the needs of future generations. A recurrent example is Wales’s Well-being of Future Generations Act which was the first legislation globally to impose legal duties on public bodies to carry out sustainable development and incorporate the United Nations SDGs into law.

The OECD Recommendation for Agile Regulatory Governance to Harness Innovation calls upon governments to adopt forward-looking governance frameworks and regulatory approaches. A variety of options are proposed to achieve this, such as horizon scanning, scenario analysis, anticipating regulatory of implications of emerging trends, and promoting iterative processes for continuous adaptation and learning. The Regulatory Horizons Council (RHC) is a practical example of this approach. It provides expert advice to the government on regulatory reform by conducting horizon scanning for technological innovation and identifying how new and disruptive technologies can benefit the economy and society.

Alternatively, in Finland, foresight is systematically integrated in policymaking at all levels through the Parliamentary Committee for the Future. Ministries, regions and municipalities are required to produce Futures Reviews and are expected to consider the findings from foresight activities when drafting legislation. The National Audit Office of Finland has further strengthened this approach by assessing governance and steering mechanisms for long term goals, making certain that they are informed by foresight.

Advice and Direction

Stand-alone advisory capability between policy areas providing methodological support

Governments benefit from specialised advisory organisations such as federal advisory committees that provide evidence-based advice, methodological support and strategic direction across varied policy domains. These bodies can also ensure that foresight methods are applied consistently and rigorously across different policy areas in order to help governments and public administrations anticipate and explore uncertain pathways.

For example, Finland’s Government Foresight Group acts as an advisory body and expert group which supports the preparation of the Government Report on the Future and ministry futures reviews. It also promotes national foresight co-operation and raises public awareness of foresight activities at the national level.

Additionally, Sitra, an independent Finnish futures organisation and fund, reports directly to Parliament. Sitra’s independence ensures that it promotes Finland’s long-term well-being and provides cutting edge foresight practice. The impact and effectiveness of this work developed by Sitra is measured both for Parliament and for Finnish society.

Directive body inputting on government agenda

This function refers to high-level advisory groups, units or councils with foresight capacity and expertise that have the authority and role to shape or set government priorities based on foresight analysis.

As an autonomous foresight institution which reports directly to the Prime Minister, France Stratégie contributes to public action and strategic direction through comprehensive analyses and proposals. It promotes public debate and harnesses collective intelligence on social, economic, and environmental issues. Additionally, it evaluates public policies at the request of government. The outcomes of its work are intended for public authorities, civil society and citizens. One of its main contributions to government agendas is formulating proposals to improve the efficiency of public policies such as towards ensuring a resilient net-zero transition.

Established in 2019, Canada's Advisory Council on Artificial Intelligence is not primarily a strategic foresight body, but its work contributes to elements of anticipatory governance by helping the government navigate the fast evolving AI landscape. The council supports the Canadian government in leveraging the country’s strengths in AI, promoting economic growth that benefits all Canadians, and safeguarding that AI advancements align with Canadian values. Drawing on expertise from AI leaders in industry, civil society, academia, and government, it serves as a key resource to guide national policy and strategy. Two working groups assist the council: one focuses on building public trust and awareness of AI, while the other explores how Canadian AI innovations can be effectively commercialised to deliver tangible economic benefits.

Ministerial futures advisor on a specific agenda

Either under legal obligations or in response to societal demands, some governments have established roles such as advisors, commissioners or ministers to directly assist in incorporating foresight into specific policy areas or agendas.

In 2015, the government of Wales adopted the Well-being of Future Generations Act. The Act outlines a vision for Wales in 2050 through national well-being goals and obliges policymakers to consider long-term perspectives in all new policies developed “in pursuit of the economic social, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales”. To ensure compliance with the Act, a Future Generations Commissioner, supported by the Auditor General for Wales, is appointed by Welsh Ministers to advise and assist public bodies and monitor the extent to which these bodies are meeting their well-being objectives.

Another example comes from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where the role of Minister of State for Government Development and the Future was created in 2020. The ministerial portfolio aims to advance government development and enhance the UAE’s readiness for future challenges and opportunities. By promoting a future-ready government, the ministry focuses on i) enhancing the performance, productivity, speed, agility, efficiency and trust in the government; ii) building new government business models and tools required for transformation; and iii) enabling social and economic development to help the UAE realise its full potential in collaboration with the private sector and civil society.

Inter-ministerial advisory capability working on specific strategic foresight projects

Interministerial and cross-departmental collaboration on foresight projects is essential for addressing complex issues that span multiple areas of government. These collaborations may extend beyond national borders which involve international partnerships to better tackle global challenges such as climate change, migration, technological advancements, and global security.

The UK Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) is an intellectual hub and think tank of the UK's Ministry of Defence. It was established following the Strategic Defence Review White Paper, which recognised that future operations will be multinational and cross-departmental, and that the UK alongside other states should plan for a unified, comprehensive vision for future operations of the Armed Forces. The centre engages in strategic foresight, concept development, and doctrine formulation, all based on evidence-based research and experimentation. Beyond its role within the Ministry of Defence, the Futures Team actively contributes to cross-government discussions about the future and collaborates closely with international partners and allies to address questions about a rapidly changing world, identify key uncertainties, and make sense of these uncertainties for global security and for the UK.

In Portugal, RePLAN is an inter-ministerial network co-ordinated by PlanAPP for the co-operation and sharing of knowledge and resources in the areas of strategic planning, public policy and foresight. It promotes collaborative work and networking to co-ordinate sectoral policies with cross-cutting initiatives and is composed of representatives from the planning and foresight bodies of each governmental area. RePLAN is also tasked with developing studies, policy evaluation models, and metrics to track the progress of policies and strategies, while ensuring strategic alignment between sectoral plans and cross-cutting planning instruments. To facilitate joint projects and collaboration, four multisectoral teams were created to focus on specific areas that span more than one governmental sector: the Multisectoral Strategic Planning Team, the Multisectoral Foresight Team, the Multisectoral Public Policy Evaluation Team, and the Multisectoral Data Access Team.

Centralised advisory capability producing/distributing high-level analysis/megatrends

A central foresight body or unit can also be responsible for generating and disseminating high-level analyses of global megatrends and their implications that inform national policy agendas and decisions.

The government of Portugal, specifically, established the Portuguese Competence Centre for Planning, Policy and Foresight in Public Administration (PlanAPP), in March 2021, to improve both the co-ordination of policies across sectors and the institutional capacity to design and steer strategies for public purposes. Among its centre of government responsibilities, PlanAPP’s mandate is to promote and steer the government’s foresight capacity and initiatives ranging from briefs on megatrends and in-depth studies on public policies.

In government foresight work, a key question is whether efforts should be concentrated at a centre of excellence e.g., central foresight unit, or if autonomous sectoral/ministerial units should take the lead while consulting with the centre. For example, in the health sector, should the Ministry of Health lead foresight initiatives, or should a central body co-ordinate them? In Finland, the Prime Minister’s Office co-ordinates foresight efforts and aims to develop a continuous and shared approach to strategic foresight. However, from the Finnish experience, foresight is most effective when it is embedded within existing structures, rather than being isolated from the work of sectoral/ministerial units. In the past, Finland's foresight work often focused on singular topics, such as climate change. However, this approach has evolved to cover a broader, ‘360-degree perspective’ that includes a range of interconnected issues such as the rule of law and democracy. If foresight work is solely concentrated in one central organisation with too tight a grip on the process, it risks becoming slow and disconnected from the practical realities faced by different sectors.

Punctual or sustained representative council/committee advising politicians on future issues

This specific function refers to provisional or ongoing committees or councils that offer advice to political leaders on future challenges, threats, opportunities, and strengths. These are important to maintain a continuous and sustainable practice of foresight and governments often establish representative councils or committees to advise political leaders on long-term futures. This helps ensure that policymaking across all sectors remains forward-looking and aligned with emerging trends.

Finland’s Committee for the Future is a leading example of this function. The committee engages in ongoing dialogue with the government on future possibilities and challenges, complementing the legislative work of Parliament with futures studies and value discussions.

Inspired by the Finnish system, Lithuania’s Committee for the Future is mandated to support political decisions in the following key areas: Future development of society and the country; Innovation and technological progress; Emigration, migration and demographic processes; Modernisation of the state and its management system.

Moreover, various countries have established futures committees and councils, either by creating new entities or repurposing existing ones that have the capacity and capability to inform parliament on directions and decisions based on an analysis of futures and complex systems. To increase their legitimacy within governments and promote exchange of practices, three global summits have been organised to convene the committees responsible for addressing futures issues in parliament. The first summit was held in Finland in 2022 (see Box A ‎B.1 for participating committees and entities in the first summit), while the second summit was held in 2023 in Uruguay, and the third summit in Chile in 2024.

Box A ‎B.1. Worldwide government committees that participated in the First Summit for the Committee for the Future (2022), Helsinki – Finland

Finland: Committee for the Future, Parliament of Finland

Chile: Challenges of the Future Commission, Senate of the Republic of Chile

Iceland: Future Committee, Parliament of Iceland

Lithuania: Committee for the Future of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania

Paraguay: ICT Committee and Special Committee for the Future for Mid and Long-term Strategic Affairs, Chamber of Deputies of Paraguay

The Philippines: Committee of Sustainable Development Goals, Innovations and Futures Thinking, Senate of the Philippines

Uruguay: Committee of the Future, Parliament of Uruguay

Canada: The House of Commons Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Technology (INDU), House of Commons

Estonia: European Union Affairs Committee and Economic Affairs Committee, Parliament of Estonia

Poland: Committee for Digitalisation, Innovation and Modern Technology, Sejm of the Republic of Poland

Thailand: Committee on Science, Technology, Research, and Innovation, House of Representatives, the Kingdom of Thailand

Vietnam: Science, Technology and Environment Committee, National Assembly of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam

Austria: Committee for Research, Innovation and Digitalization, Austrian National Council

Source: The World Summit of the Committees of the Future (eduskunta.fi)

Transition function between agendas / terms to support continuity

Governments require mechanisms and roles to maintain continuity in strategic foresight efforts and their integration into policy agendas across different political terms or administrative changes.

While the OECD has noted that Finland still needs to establish a government transition function, the government report on the future is one output that supports Finland in maintaining foresight processes and knowledge across government. During each electoral term, the government submits this report to Parliament, focusing on key issues that will shape decision making and require particular attention in the coming years. The report also stimulates open discussions about long-term challenges helping to safeguard that strategic foresight is included into ongoing governance, regardless of political cycles.

Methodological Support

Templates and guidance for design of federated strategic foresight units

Governments that aim to pursue a decentralised approach to institutionalising strategic foresight may require the provision of frameworks, guidelines, recommendations and best practices for establishing and operating strategic foresight units within different parts of the government. The discussion around which approach is most beneficial, i.e., centralised, decentralised or ecosystemic, will depend on the country context, its history in applying foresight methods in varied policy areas and government incentives or regulations to build foresight teams and units across ministries and entities.

In Europe, there are examples of regional foresight and anticipatory governance efforts such as the Strategic Insights and Analyses unit (SIA) at the Chancellery and Foreign Office Department of the Flemish Administration. During the Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union, in 2024, initiatives such as the "Fit for the Future: Global Challenges, Regional Solutions" were organised to underline the importance of regional strategic foresight to increase resilience, improve joint preparedness and anticipatory policymaking. The European Committee of the Regions has also highlighted the importance of regional foresight with examples from Flanders, the Friuli Venezia Giulia region and Hauts-de-France.

On guidance and frameworks, the Welsh government’s Well-being of Future Generations Continuous Learning and Improvement Plan 2023-2025 developed a Sustainable Governance Framework to maximise government’s contribution to the well-being goals by setting and delivering well-being objectives (Continuous Learning and Improvement Plan for 2023-2025). Further, in the report Foresight for sustainable development and well‑being governance in Wales, the Welsh government sketches out possible pathways and identifies areas for interventions for the government’s continuous development of a foresight ecosystem.

Although not directly linked to strategic foresight governance, the European Interoperability Framework (EIF) from the European Commission is a framework for governments to set up interoperable digital public services. In the context of creating a Digital Single Market in Europe, 47 recommendations aim to improve governance of interoperability activities, establish cross-organisational relationships, streamline processes supporting end-to-end digital services, and ensure that both existing and new legislation do not compromise interoperability efforts.

Training and workshop delivery on strategic foresight topics

Governments are investing in programmes and initiatives to build the capacity of civil servants and policymakers through training in strategic foresight methodologies and tools.

Canada’s Policy Horizons offers scaffolding and training activities to help public servants and departments to develop their foresight capacity and skills. In June 2017, Canada launched Canada Beyond 150, a 10-month training programme designed to equip new public servants with forward-looking skills, innovative approaches to policymaking and achieve positive cultural shifts in the public service. The initiative convened public servants from across the country and various government departments to participate in a professional development programme designed to support leadership and skill-building.

In Italy, a partnership between scholars and researchers in the field of anticipatory governance and strategic foresight has enabled the Italian School of Government (Scuola Nazionale dell’Amministrazione, SNA) to offer foresight courses to civil and public servants from various government institutes, agencies, and ministries. The content and syllabus of courses range from teaching about megatrends analysis in migration and demographics as well as an introduction to futures studies.

Widespread practice-based methodological capacity-building

To ensure that government officials and public sector practitioners are well-equipped to engage in foresight activities and understand its usefulness across the policy cycle, countries have applied wide-ranging capacity-building initiatives. Some of these initiatives are continuous such as those offered by Schools of Government and focus on upskilling public servants as well as leadership and promoting a shift in governmental and public administration culture towards foresight and innovation.

One such initiative is Canada Beyond 150, led by Policy Horizons Canada. From June 2017 to March 2018, the programme brought together federal public servants across the country for a ten-month intensive leadership and skills development course. Participants learned how to conduct foresight analysis, use design thinking approaches, and ways in which to ensure and account for stakeholder engagement. The programme focused on exploring five critical themes with input from both internal and external experts, aiming to instil a futures thinking culture across the Canadian public service.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ministry of Cabinet Affairs “is mandated with the portfolio of future of UAE and developing a strategy that ensures all sectors’ readiness for the future’s variabilities”. To support this mandate, the UAE Future Foresight Strategy unit offers training programmes such as the “Shaping Tomorrow” workshops and varied initiatives to government officials. The aim is to provide them with the skills needed to embed foresight and improve the future of government. This work is part of a broader effort to ensure that governmental systems can anticipate and adapt to future trends, all the while ensuring long-term national preparedness. These efforts reflect a growing recognition that foresight must be a foundational aspect of government capacity to prepare for emerging challenges.

Intelligence Provision

Analysis support for policy development

This function aims to offer rigorous analytical services that inform and shape policymaking processes with a futures-oriented perspective. Strategic foresight thrives when governments leverage specialised analytical support to inform policy decisions. By incorporating this function, countries can ensure that the exploration of alternative futures is based on facts and credible sources, which enables iterative engagement with stakeholders and supports the plausibility scenarios that can be used to challenge existing strategies and policy options.

The Australian National Security College (NSC) is a joint initiative and partnership between the Commonwealth Government and the Australian National University. Within NSC, the Futures Hub is “Australia’s centre of expertise in future analysis” and offers, inter alia, insights on long-term policy challenges, horizon scanning initiatives, and tailored scenario development to stress-test policies and plans. Additionally, this analysis support is encouraged by networks with international futures centres, such as US National Intelligence Council, the UK’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, and Singapore’s Centre for Strategic Futures.

Another example is the US Center for Strategic Foresight at the Government Accountability Office (GAO) which conducts forward-looking analyses that support policy development, federal agencies and programmes. The Centre is a formal unit established in 2019 to provide support within the GAO and incorporates foresight through strategic planning. Furthermore, it identifies emerging trends and then works with subject matter experts i.e. all of the auditors in the agency help draft trends documents and provide their expertise into these documents.

Emerging technology analysis

As technology evolves at a rapid pace, governments must stay ahead of potential societal, economic, and political impacts. There are worldwide examples of strategic foresight units and centres that have been established to focus on the implications of emerging technologies for public policy and governance. These specialised units and centres focus on analysing and understanding the implications of emerging technologies for society, governments and businesses.

The first example comes from Malaysia’s technology foresight initiative, led by the Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology (MIGHT), which focuses on the use of foresight to explore emerging technologies. MIGHT’s governance, board, networks and activities illustrate a collaborative approach between public and private sectors, using foresight to explore technology adoption and business development, supported by extensive stakeholder consultation (SOIF 2021). Additional work in technology foresight is the Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia 2050 which aims to outline the future of Malaysia’s Science and Technology landscape through 2050.

The second example is the Queensland Governments Digital Futures and Foresight, where the Futures and Foresight team develops strategic foresight capabilities to support policymakers in designing innovative, evidence-based and futures-oriented digital policies, programmes and practices. By exploring potential digital futures for Queensland, the team identifies opportunities and challenges that may arise.

The third example for this function is the European Commission Competence Centre on Foresight which was initiated in June 2018. One of the main overarching goals of the Centre is to generate anticipatory knowledge through continuous information gathering and analysis. Technology foresight and emerging technology analysis is a recurrent practice conducted by the Centre' with examples in publications such as Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation, Scanning deep tech horizons, and Blockchain for Industrial Transformations.

Sector-based strategic foresight knowledge providers

Governments often establish foresight units within specific sectors to provide targeted insights that inform policy, strategy and planning in those areas. These units specialise in sector-based foresight, addressing unique challenges and opportunities.

The UK Government Office for Science (GO-Science) is operationally independent and works across all of UK’s public administration. Although they are part of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, GO-Science futures team produces sector-specific foresight reports for various ministries and government institutions not limited to science, technology and innovation, such as Net Zero Society, Wireless 2030, Genomics Beyond Health, Future of mobility, Future of Global Supply Chains, and Migration and global environmental change. These are aimed at informing government policy on emerging sectoral challenges.

Similarly, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) which is an Australian government corporate entity has a futures team which acts as a strategic advisory arm of Australia’s national science organisation. CSIRO conducts strategic foresight research for various sectors by combining science, technology, and economic insights to improve and develop transformative strategies.

Another example is France’s Centre for Studies and Strategic Foresight (CEP), within the Ministry of Agriculture and Food. The centre, which was created in 2008, provides long-term insights and strategic monitoring on complex public issues such as food safety, agricultural production, and environmental services, supporting both domestic and international policy debates.

Capability Building

Centralised capability supporting transversal and connected capabilities

Building foresight capabilities is a collaborative effort. However, a central mandate that supports and enhances foresight capabilities across different parts of the government can facilitate coherence and integration of foresight activities.

The Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) works within the Prime Minister’s Office and is focused on supporting the strategic needs of the whole-of-government and guaranteeing the Singapore government's foresight capabilities. The CSF is built around three main pillars: 1. Scout (trend analysis and horizon scanning), 2. Challenge (Stress-test strategies and policies), and 3. Grow (build governmental strategic foresight capacity). Supported by these pillars, it produces national scenarios and a variety of publications to elicit strategic conversations such as on key forces of change and future preparedness surrounding its current operational environment.

Conducting foresight projects can be time consuming and the CSF recognises that it is not capable of pursuing this work on its own throughout government. For this, it enables and shares foresight capacity and capabilities across governmental agencies and departments. It aims to make foresight a sustainable practice and promotes a culture of collective sense-making. CSF uses variety of methods to this aim: first, the rotation and mobility of strategic foresight experts inside government; second, building and sustaining networks and partnerships with communities of practice; and lastly facilitating a senior formal Strategic Foresight Network (SFN) comprised of deputy secretaries and with the mandate to commission strategic foresight studies inside government.

Change management or capability building (skills and infrastructure)

Achieving organisational change is often challenging due to resistance from leadership satisfaction with current processes, a culture resistant to change, and the constraints imposed by bureaucratic hurdles. These factors can significantly impair an organisation’s ability to adapt and innovate to meet both current and future demands. To overcome this, targeted initiatives should aim to prepare government agencies and civil servants for future shifts through capacity building and infrastructure modernisation.

An example is Lithuania's Civil Service Reform (approved in June 2023), which seeks to address management inefficiencies by introducing greater flexibility, enhancing continuous skill development for civil servants, and building a culture of innovation. Consequently, this will entail further use of foresight practices and building a governance around it for continuity and policy impact.

Similarly, in Ireland the Civil Service Renewal 2030 (CSR2030) is an ambitious 10-year strategy of reform which formally sets as one of its main goals to equip the civil service with the capacity to prepare for the future and integrate futures thinking into policy development.

In New Zealand, the Public Service Act 2020 mandates that government departments produce regular Long-term Insights Briefings, which encourages the integration of foresight methods into policy development. Recognising a gap in foresight capabilities across both New Zealand and Australian public administrations, the Australia and New Zealand School of Government (ANZSOG) has taken an active role in building foresight capability within and across government agencies. In past efforts, ANZSOG has convened a ‘curated conversation’ with senior officials from multiple jurisdictions, including the Australian Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and the Departments of Premier and Cabinet in New South Wales and South Australia, to share insights and approaches for enhancing foresight capabilities. The conversation focused on ‘building capability in foresight,’ rather than on specific foresight methodologies.