This chapter outlines the development of a guidebook and curriculum map aimed at equipping public officials with the skills and tools needed for building government strategic foresight capabilities. It explains how targeted training programmes can bridge the gap between theoretical foresight methods and their practical application in public policy. The chapter reviews existing training programmes, identifies key target groups—including policymakers, senior leaders, and foresight producers—and proposes a flexible, diagnostic-driven curriculum designed to build a proactive and innovative public sector. Examples from initiatives in Lithuania, Italy, and Malta illustrate how these tailored programmes address real-world governance across diverse governmental contexts.
Building Anticipatory Capacity with Strategic Foresight in Government
Abstract
The OECD Observatory of Public Sector Innovation, in collaboration with the School of International Futures, has developed a guidebook and curriculum map to support decision makers aiming to make their public service better at anticipating and preparing for future change by building the necessary futures capabilities (Hanson, 2024[1]). It offers systematic guidance for developing or procuring targeted training programmes that provide public officials the knowledge, tools, and skills needed to support more future-oriented policymaking. Building the capabilities of individuals and institutions is an essential step towards effective anticipatory governance.
The guidebook helps public service training institutions, centres of government, and talent managers in government to identify relevant capacity-building programmes and build their own customised curriculum.
Governments face a complex, evolving landscape of public policy and governance. Complex systems and problems have become the norm, rather than the exception. Anticipatory innovation governance (AIG), a shift from reactive to practice approaches, is needed to help societies become more anticipatory and resilient, while shaping the future.
Governments are increasingly coming to recognise the need to build AIG capabilities to help them maintain continuity and confidence in the public system and public services. As they adapt to a new environment of fast-changing and constantly evolving demands, volatility, and complex problems, there is a clear need to move beyond traditional, reactive policymaking, and the limits of a siloed, bureaucratic approach.
AIG offers a framework for achieving this. An environment that supports exploration, experimentation, and learning can help build resilience and adaptability in governance systems. This approach is not just about preparing for the future but actively shaping it, through strategic foresight and innovation.
The transition to more anticipatory and innovative governance models is not without its challenges. It requires a cultural shift in public institutions, embracing risk and uncertainty in the policymaking process. It requires the development of new skills and capacities among public officials, including systems thinking, strategic foresight, and the ability to design and carry out policy experiments.
By leveraging data, technology, and inclusive engagement processes, governments can better serve their citizens. They can become more responsive to their needs and achieve more equitable and inclusive outcomes, by reducing the risk of negative unintended consequences and ensuring that the benefits of technological advancements and societal changes are widely shared.
However, few capacity-building programmes focus on real anticipatory governance challenges and provide a clear path to address real needs in public governance. Content is often too theoretical or designed in the absence of real-world needs.
This section provides a brief overview of the background research conducted on existing training programmes in the areas of strategic foresight and anticipation. The content reviewed included online materials and syllabi for courses and programmes for government or public sector audiences.
The following criteria were analysed:
Target groups
Competencies and skills taught
Learning frameworks or foresight system frameworks in use.
5.2.1. Overview of target groups and skills taught
A common target group for these courses includes individuals hoping to become foresight practitioners, futurists, strategy developers, or similar professionals, as illustrated in Box 5.1. These training programmes cover both theory and practice, often with an emphasis on technical skills, methods, and tools such as framing, scanning, “futuring”, designing, visioning, and adapting (School of International Futures, n.d.[2]; Institute for the Future, n.d.[3]).
Example of a course overview targeted to foresight practitioners
This course focuses on how public policy involves assumptions about the future, along with examples of policy fields where foresight is useful, such as defence procurement, environmental protection, and international politics.
The overview introduces such concepts as visions of the future and the field of foresight itself. The course covers why foresight matters to policy, challenges in forecasting, and how to build scenarios.
The four-week training course is aimed at mid-career officials with an interest in policy planning, forward studies, and similar fields.
Source: (King’s College London, n.d.[4]).
Another common target group includes policymakers, policy analysts, civil servants, and public officials in planning and strategy roles, including senior officials, as illustrated in Box 5.2. The courses primarily provide an overview of strategic foresight, covering some fundamentals and theory, as well as the benefits and limitations related to policy, decision making, and actions. Some courses also introduce the foresight toolbox, including scenarios and horizon scanning (European Institute of Public Administration, n.d.[5]; Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, n.d.[6]).
Few training programmes target general managers, senior managers and leaders, and executive leadership; at least one also targets other distinct groups, such as researchers and scholars (EDHEC Business School, n.d.[7]). These courses emphasise learning about megatrends, sensemaking, and the organisational environment (Oxford University Department for Continuing Education, n.d.[8]).
No explicit descriptions were found of any training or skills framework used in the design of the reviewed courses and programmes.
Example of a course overview targeted to policy planners
The content presented in the overview section of this course focuses on the idea that we live in an unpredictable and evolving world, where challenges like climate change and the evolution of digital technologies create complex environments that public officials must navigate. Being prepared for change is thus a priority.
The overview introduces strategic foresight and explains how the course will address anticipating trends, risks, and emerging issues. The course also provides insight into shaping strategic plans in policy and preparing for change.
This three-day training course is designed for senior and junior policymakers, regulators, and public officials.
Some courses mention that they will use one or more foresight system frameworks with the aim of helping participants to set up multi-step interventions or projects, or to understand how foresight can become a coherent system of analysis:
Four-stage process for integrating foresight into decision making (School of International Futures, n.d.[2])
S4 (Scoping, Scanning, Scenarios, and Strategy) Futures framework (Global Innovation Management Institute, n.d.[10])
TAIDA (Tracking, Analysing, Imaging, Deciding and Acting) (Kairos Future, n.d.[11])
5.2.2. Observations and a way forward for the curriculum
Three distinct target groups of public servants in the public sector or government can be identified, aligning with the LIMinal project. The curriculum work targeted three such audiences for the curriculum map: foresight experts, policymakers, and senior leaders. By defining these audiences broadly, a wide range of public officials can be included, avoiding excessive complexity.
A noticeable gap was found in capacity-building programmes tailored to or addressing real-world anticipatory governance challenges. However, one example did refer to such efforts, as outlined in Box 5.3, which provided inspiration for the following curriculum focus.
Example of a course overview focused on practical anticipatory governance
The overview describes projects on strategic foresight and scenario planning that have helped member countries’ governments build capacity and address strategic challenges.
The course is designed to equip participants with tools and techniques to improve long-term planning in conditions of uncertainty and accelerating change. The integration of complex adaptive systems thinking is also described, with the aim of becoming anticipatory and agile for the future.
Overall, current offerings are often overly abstract, theoretical, or detached from the practical needs of public governance. This disconnect prevents public officials from effectively embracing strategic foresight methods in forward-looking policies and strategies.
Based on research conducted by the OECD, it did not seem relevant to directly use or adapt existing foresight system frameworks for capacity-building programmes, such as the Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008[13]), Foresight Competency Model (see Figure 5.1), the Foresight Maturity Model (Grim, 2009[14]), or the Six Pillars (Mapping, Anticipation, Timing the Future, Deepening the Future, Creating Alternatives, Transforming the Future) (Inayatullah, 2008[15]).
The OECD reviewed relevant concepts such as core skills for public sector innovation (OECD, 2017), the Futures Literacy Framework (Miller, 2018[16]), and recommendations on how foresight might be used more effectively for policymaking from the EU project FORLEARN (Da Costa et al., 2008[17]). Research was conducted on ways to increase futures consciousness in organisations (Teach the Future, n.d.[18]), and inspiration was drawn from other programmes (Apolitical, n.d.[19]) and capacity-building efforts in other domains (GOV.UK, 2023[20]).
Consultations were held with external partners who are experts in skills and training, such as a team working on comprehensive capacity-building approaches in the EU Horizon 2020 Cicerone project (Cicerone project, n.d.[21]) and OECD experts involved in Education 2030 Curriculum Mapping (OECD, 2019[22]). These insights are supplemented by the OECD’s previous Anticipatory Innovation Governance work in Finland (OECD, 2022[23]), Ireland, Slovenia, and other contexts.
At the same time, OECD experts in strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation governance have noted an increase in interest among national public officials and institutions worldwide in developing “future-proof” public policies, creating a window of opportunity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation.
Rather than frame the curriculum plan only on strategic foresight, offering foresight tools and skills for capacity training, the OECD found that the scope should be on capacity building, to address identified challenges in anticipatory governance, aligned with the specific challenges of the target groups and their institutions.
Capacity building should be a planned learning process in the form of programmes designed to build and enhance the skills, competencies, and knowledge of individuals and organisations. This should enable them to address their own challenges and development goals effectively and efficiently (rather than through a list of isolated training sessions).
Source: (Hines et al., 2017[24]).
Having reached these conclusions, the OECD set out to formulate a suitable curriculum focus that could guide the development of new capacity-building programmes to address this project’s specific challenge areas in anticipatory governance, while ensuring that the curriculum plan can be generalised enough to be broadly applicable in EU member states and beyond.
The OECD’s technical experience with real-world governance challenges, including the comprehensive assessments and challenge identification conducted as part of the LIMinal project (see Box 5.4), offers an opportunity to provide governments best practice guidance and content for designing anticipatory governance curricula and programmes tailored to their unique challenges.
Analysis from country-specific assessments in Lithuania, Italy, and Malta revealed five challenge areas in anticipatory innovation governance that can also be encountered in other countries.
Strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation are little known or underused in government
This is the rationale for the LIMinal project. Many countries face challenges building capacity and integrating foresight into their governance framework.
Anticipatory innovation: how to build a proactive culture of experimentation in policy development
Current management and work culture often rely on reactive responses, deficient testing and learning practices, and an overemphasis on legal and compliance-oriented decision making, often executed from the top down.
Building momentum and capacity for communities of practice can help introduce innovative and forward-thinking policy and governance methodologies.
Strategic flexibility: how to understand and overcome challenges and navigate uncertainty
Reliance on traditional strategic planning and forecasting methods makes it difficult to address uncertainty, critical risks, and challenges in both the short and long term. This is compounded by insufficient understanding of developments, in particular strategic foresight and sensemaking, that can increase an organisation’s capacity to anticipate future complexities.
More effective approaches to managing risks and challenges in both the immediate and the distant future are urgently needed, so that policies can be swiftly adapted to emerging circumstances, taking different values and perceptions into account.
Empowering proactivity: encouraging stakeholder engagement and forward-thinking insights
The absence of forward-looking capability, as well as irregular consultation with stakeholders, has reduced the availability of contextually specific intelligence on emerging challenges and future opportunities.
A lack of high-level engagement and the reluctance of political leadership to adopt cutting-edge anticipatory intelligence is impeding progress and undermining legitimacy.
Aligning for sustainable change: overcoming long-term discontinuity and enhancing collaboration
A lack of policy continuity through different political cycles and ministries, including financial planning, poses a significant risk. Immediate gains, such as economic growth, tend to be prioritised at the expense of addressing crucial long-term systemic issues, like the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
A silo mentality in organisations and insufficient cross-institutional co-ordination also impede progress. The lack of effective methods and processes to overcome this increase internal inefficiencies and create obstacles to effective collaboration.
The adoption of international policies, particularly those influenced by entities such as the European Union, requires a thorough understanding of the potential short and long-term impact in each country.
Note that not all challenge areas are applicable to all country contexts. However, experiences so far suggest that at least some of the challenge areas are likely to apply to most countries.
As noted in the previous section, the OECD’s LIMinal project found that existing programmes do not adequately address governments’ challenges in strategic foresight and anticipatory governance. To address this, the OECD has taken a step back and introduced real governance challenges as the entry point for capacity building.
The curriculum focuses on identifying the governance challenges that need to be addressed to improve anticipation and innovation, orienting programme elements and curricula towards meeting the practical governance needs of each country.
The project thus confronted theoretical and practical tasks head on:
It sought to bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and real-world application of strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation, ensuring that the curriculum is grounded in practical needs and real governance situations.
It aimed to cater to diverse learning needs across different target groups, requiring a flexible and adaptable curriculum design.
It acknowledged the need for a comprehensive ecosystem approach that respects each country’s context, allowing for customised intervention that is both action-oriented and sustainable.
To this end, a tailoring process has been designed, starting with a diagnostic phase to ensure that the curriculum meets end users’ needs and maximises resources, followed by the application of a guidebook to design context-specific programmes.
The curriculum has the following purposes:
Identify capacity-building programmes to tackle challenges in anticipatory governance.
Outline necessary changes and capability to support improvement.
Inform skills and competence development of senior leaders, policymakers, and foresight producers.
Inform procurement or brokering of programmes.
5.3.1. Overview of the guidebook and curriculum map
The guidebook is a starting point for countries, their schools of government, and centres of excellence in policymaking to design and implement curricula that respond to the five challenges identified in the OECD’s work with national governments.
The guidebook focuses on five main challenges (see Figure 5.2) identified in AIG within the ambit of their public administration and more specifically within their policymaking functions.
Source: OECD.
Because of the dynamic nature of internal and external challenges facing governments, the guidebook is envisaged to be a living document that is updated, reviewed, and tailored to address the specific country’s needs and to reflect developments over time, including further challenge areas if needed. It is envisaged as a version for testing, experimenting, and adapting to suit the context and the changing needs of audiences.
The guidebook does, however, provide the context, guidance, principles, and content to enable users to develop a challenge-led AIG curriculum. The guidebook:
Introduces the key elements of AIG and of Strategic Foresight to situate the five challenges in the wider AIG context.
Provides guidance on key questions to consider as practitioners conduct a diagnostic on the status of the AIG system, to help tailor a curriculum based on the context of the country and focused on responding to its specific needs.
Maps the key principles for designing an AIG curriculum tailored to the different audiences; including training methods the users will want to consider and the kind of expertise they will need to procure.
Outlines how to use the curriculum map and a heat map to help the users design a curriculum that can respond flexibly in terms of time, content, and intensity to the specific needs of the audience and the institutions.
Outlines five Capacity-Building Programmes, consisting of a programme introducing the concepts of AIG and Strategic Foresight and four additional programmes addressing specific challenges, to help the users understand which courses and modules are appropriate for different audiences and for their roles in government.
Provides advice on ongoing capability, networks, learning, and development resources that complement and extend the content of this guidebook.
5.3.2. Guidance on developing and assessing capacity: A process diagram
Based on the five challenge areas, the guidebook is designed to introduce related capacity-building programmes and to provide high-level guidance (see Figure 5.3 and Figure 5.4 on programmes and on adapting the guidebook to a specific context) on how to tailor an approach to meet the needs of different countries, systems, and workforces.
Source: OECD.
Source: OECD.
It will not give the user all the answers, but it will help to get started building the capability of three key roles: senior leaders, policymakers, and foresight producers.
The guidebook is supported by a Curriculum Map that allows the user to explore the programmes and to identify the relevant courses, modules, and skills that each role may need (see Figure 5.5 for a curriculum map example for a specific course in one of the programmes).
Illustrating elements of learning outcomes, heatmapping, and target audiences
Source: OECD.
The guidebook also provides a light self-diagnostic that helps to think about the system that governments are working in and their strategic foresight capacity. It thinks through the needs of government workforce in relation to the five challenges, and about how to design a tailored curriculum.
5.3.3. Diagnosing and assessing key needs around AIG
The initial consideration when choosing programmes to run, or tailoring a curriculum, is to conduct a diagnostic to understand an organisational system’s current and desired AIG capabilities.
With the help of the diagnostic, the users of the guidebook and curriculum can identify what an AIG training curriculum that is tailored for their needs would look like. The diagnostic helps identify what assessments are necessary in skills and expertise at an individual and team level, and also at the workforce and system level.
Specifically, the diagnostic helps the user to understand how to prioritise by:
Deciding if one of the existing programmes is suitable for your needs
Assessing your broader AIG and Strategic Foresight capability, to identify key areas for your curriculum
Prioritising and tailoring the approach to specific roles and learning needs.
5.3.4. Programme structure and audiences
The programmes outlined in the guidebook (see Figure 5.4) are not exhaustive of the field of AIG, because they address the specific challenges faced by the governments of Lithuania, Italy, and Malta.
To address each of the challenge areas outlined above, five corresponding Capacity-Building Programmes were developed.
The five programmes are:
1. Introduction to Anticipatory Innovation Governance and Strategic Foresight
2. Anticipatory Innovation Programme
3. Strategic Flexibility for Policy Programme
4. Proactive Leadership Programme
5. Strategic Governance and Collaboration Programme.
Programme 1 is composed of one course introducing the key concepts and use of AIG and Strategic Foresight to situate Programmes 2, 3, 4, and 5 in the wider context of AIG.
These programmes focus on the key elements, skills, tools, methods, values, and culture needed to embed AIG in government, for more innovative, experimental, resilient, relevant, inclusive, and sustainable policies that address national and global challenges.
Programme structure
Programme 1 comprises one course with two modules introducing the concept and application of AIG and strategic foresight, to familiarise the audience with the meaning and relevance of AIG and strategic foresight in their role.
Each of the other four programmes (2 to 5) is organised under four courses focusing on a topic that addresses the specified challenges. Each course outlines its learning outcomes and is composed of three to six suggested training modules that map the content of the course. The modules are not exhaustive; they are intended to provide key areas of knowledge and skills, values, attitude, and culture required to meet the learning outcomes. The number and content of the modules will need to be adapted to fit the specific audience and country context.
Except for the introductory modules, the content of the programmes is not sequential, as each of the programmes addresses a different challenge. Within the programme, each course addresses a particular aspect of the main challenge tackled in the programme.
The learning outcomes for Programme 1 are described with the term “understand”, following Bloom’s Taxonomy,1 as this programme introduces the key concepts of AIG and strategic foresight.
Following the same taxonomy, the learning outcomes of Programmes 2 to 5 are classified under the three terms “know”, “understand”, and “apply”. It will be up to the users of this guidebook to decide what level of learning they would like the audience (or the different types of audience) to achieve, whether understanding, knowledge, or application, depending on their diagnostic of the needs.
The Audience
Each course identifies the primary audience for the content proposed. The audience of the programmes is composed of the three roles of “senior leader”, “policymaker”, and “foresight producer”.
Senior leader
A senior leader is a person responsible for providing leadership, executive decisions, and direction, and who has responsibilities for personnel, budget, or strategic co-operation.
This could be a team manager, an advisor, a director, a public official, a minister, or a civil servant in any other senior leadership or management role, including in change leadership or in reforming governance structures.
The core AIG functions associated with senior leaders are:
Agency – ensuring adequate institutional structure and organisational capacity to embed anticipatory innovation governance; promoting the use of rigorous data and measurement in government and society, as well as the use of foresight alternatives in exploration and experimentation.
Authorising environment – providing legitimacy, encouraging increasingly fruitful government partnerships, networks, and active participation, and promoting broader use of foresight for more anticipatory evidence and evaluation in government and society.
Policymaker
A policymaker is a person responsible for, or involved in, any stage of the policy development cycle or related areas, for example setting the policy agenda, designing policy, consulting with stakeholders, or evaluating policy.
This could be an officer, an administrator, a policy analyst, or a civil servant with any other working-level role focused on aspects of the policy cycle, or someone working on experimental and innovative policy.
The core AIG functions associated with policymakers are:
Agency – ensuring integration of foresight in policymaking in the institutional structures; doing sense making in a policy context; promoting strategic integration of foresight data and measurements in policy; partaking in alternatives exploration and experimentation.
Authorising environment – encouraging networks and building partnerships; encouraging public interest and participation in policy foresight; integrating foresight in collecting evidence and evaluation of policies, using foresight to overcome vested interests and cognitive biases in policymaking.
Foresight producer
A foresight producer is a person responsible for leading and facilitating the co-creation of research and planning with a systemic and long-term outlook, having extensive interaction with key internal and external stakeholders, and using tools and methods such as scenario planning, horizon scanning, and systems analysis, from the fields of foresight, anticipation, or systems thinking.
This audience does not necessarily already produce foresight. Actors may play roles in an organisation that deal with planning and strategic development, or generating evidence and advice for policy, or experimentation, or change management. But this audience could also be producing foresight, in the role of a foresight analyst, a foresight expert, or an analyst of the surrounding environment.
The core AIG functions associated with foresight producers are:
Agency – leading and designing processes for alternatives exploration and experimentation; ensuring appropriate use of data and measurement, selection and application of tools and methods, and sense-making of collective intelligence; and embedding such tools, methods, and processes in the institutional structure of government.
Authorising environment – leveraging partnerships and public interest for participation and dissemination, moving away from vested interests and cognitive biases to shaping evidence with common views of the future, providing legitimacy by leading with example, and creating learning loops in the design of participatory processes.
In the context of AIG, the three roles are interdependent and complement each other.
The senior leader requires information, research, and inputs from foresight producers as well as policymakers, to set a strategic direction and make decisions. One such example is the Finnish Government Report on the Future, prepared during each electoral term.
The policymaker will require insights from foresight producers to develop fair and sound policies and to liaise with senior leaders. An example of this is the futures team at the UK Government Office for Science, which conducts foresight for diverse sectors in government.
The foresight producer will need to gather information and evidence from policymakers and senior leaders to inform research and systematic process towards a rigorous foresight output. In Spain, the government foresight unit gathered information from ministries to prepare “Spain 2050”.
Several courses and modules will be relevant to more than one role (see Figure 5.6). The trainers will need to tailor both the content and the training methods to fit the specific audience.
Programmes 1 and 4 are intended for all roles.
Programmes 2 and 5 are mainly for senior leaders and policymakers.
Programme 3 is mainly for policymakers and foresight producers.
Source: OECD.
Training methods and trainers’ expertise
Each course offers some recommended training methods to support the learning; and suggestions about the specific knowledge required by the trainers to provide the training effectively and at the expected standard.
5.4.1. Lithuania
In close collaboration with Lithuania’s Government Strategic Analysis Centre (STRATA), the OECD delivered a series of capacity-building programmes focused on anticipatory governance and strategic foresight. This involved five methodological workshops (see Table 5.1) engaging a diverse group of participants from Lithuania’s public administration, including policymakers, policy advisors, public service managers, and senior decision makers in all policy domains. Each workshop was designed to offer foresight content to enrich the daily activities and practices of public officials. Three context-specific workshops were conducted for the Ministry of Transport and Communications. The workshops included:
1. The Application of Strategic Foresight in Public Governance aimed to explore the application of strategic foresight in the context of public governance, with a particular focus on presenting examples and best practices from Lithuania, OECD, the European Commission, and Singapore. This workshop was positioned as a preparatory step for a forthcoming phase in the development of the new State Progress Strategy, Lithuania’s vision for the future, “Lithuania 2050”. It served as a platform for discussing Lithuania’s visioning process with LT2050 and the roadmaps guiding the country towards its preferred future. In a series of expert presentations and discussions, the seminar sought to equip participants with insights and tools for successful integration of strategic foresight into planning and execution of Lithuania’s whole-of-government agenda.
2. The second seminar and methodological workshop, Strategic Foresight and Purpose Setting for the LT2050 Roadmap, was dedicated to exploring strategic foresight approaches that enhance roadmapping and strategic planning efforts. It served as a starting point for a series of workshops designed to further the LT2050 initiative and marked the beginning of the European Commission DG REFORM Technical Support Instrument project, set to build strategic foresight and anticipatory governance capacity across Lithuania, Italy, and Malta. The workshop’s focus was on identifying and prioritising strategic foresight methods aligned with Lithuania’s goals in the LT2050 framework, emphasising the importance of purpose setting to determine the most applicable approaches.
3. The third methodological workshop, Using Strategic Foresight Across the Policy Cycle, aimed to identify opportunities to integrate strategic foresight practices into policy development in Lithuania. The workshop offered civil servants best practices through international case studies, as well as practical examples from the UK’s Head of Futures at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs. Participants engaged in group activities using foresight methods to explore and map macro factors and immediate stakeholders that constitute a strategic environment and apply horizon-scanning techniques to specific policy challenges in Lithuania.
4. The fourth workshop, Applying Futures Methods in Decision Making, focused on the usefulness of strategic foresight to support decision-making processes, and to familiarise civil servants with commonly used tools and techniques, such as the Futures Wheel. Participants identified and mapped a variety of strategic foresight “products” to learn how these can benefit their practice and day-to-day activities. An expert from Belgium’s Flanders Chancellery and the Foreign Office’s Strategic Insights and Analysis unit gave further insight into approaches for using different foresight “products” and how these can improve decision-making processes in government.
5. Building on the insights from the third and fourth workshops, the fifth and final methodological session was dedicated to developing strategies for Communicating Futures “Outputs” with civil servants. Participants guided by the OECD and foresight experts examined the processes of communicating alternative futures. They were introduced to approaches and techniques for communication, gaining valuable knowledge on how diverse communication strategies of strategic foresight outputs can encourage strategic conversations and on engagement with senior decision makers and key stakeholders.
Ministry of Transport and Communications workshops
The first workshop for the Ministry of Transport and Communications focused on the role and significance of strategic foresight in shaping the future landscape of transport and communications policy in Lithuania. Intending to support development of a vision for the sector by 2050, the session unveiled insights into Lithuania’s current strategic foresight practices, alongside an overview of global trends and drivers impacting the sector. Participants learned from global cases to inform Lithuania’s strategic direction. Furthermore, the workshop facilitated group activities designed to identify strategic foresight opportunities in policy planning, pinpointing key drivers and emerging weak signals, indicators of a potentially emerging issues that may become significant in the future, essential for the evolution of Lithuania’s Transport and Communications sector.
The Mobility Innovation Hub, a recently established initiative of the International Transport Forum (ITF), in collaboration with the French Ministry of Transport, convened the first Beyond the Horizon Conference in Paris, an annual conference focusing on emerging technological and governance-related innovations and disruptions. ITF brought together experts from inside and outside the transport sector. Foresight specialists, academics, and innovators from the private sector discussed forward-looking innovations and potential disruptions that can challenge public authorities’ ability to achieve their public policy objectives. The OECD conducted a foresight workshop at the conference to spur new thinking about incorporating foresight techniques into participants’ work and providing guidance on scanning and prioritisation of critical and consequential developments in a rapidly changing environment.
Transportation policy planners and senior decision makers in the transport sector were invited to participate in the third workshop, Exploring Critical Uncertainties in Long-Term Transport Planning. This took advantage of meetings of transportation experts in Vilnius as part of the Lithuanian presidency of the International Transport Forum. It featured inputs from international transportation experts and involved participants from the ministry, as well as transportation and critical infrastructure stakeholders from around the world. Participants engaged in an interactive exercise exploring critical uncertainties in the transport sector and beyond relevant to Lithuania.
Stress-testing workshop series for a resilient and future-ready Lithuanian public administration
The stress-testing workshop series, organised by STRATA and the OECD, took place from 21 to 24 November with the objective of identifying and equipping Lithuanian civil servants with essential skills to navigate future disruptions. The four-day event provided an interactive platform where participants engaged in structured discussions, scenario planning, and strategic exercises to explore the evolving landscape of public sector work and the skills necessary to ensure resilience. As mentioned in the Introduction, the workshop was based on a five-step stress-testing process (see Figure 1.3 in Chapter 1).
The workshop commenced with an introduction to strategic foresight and an exploration of potential future disruptions. Participants were invited to join breakout groups where they examined various disruption scenarios, considering present-day signals that could indicate the plausibility of these futures. By projecting these disruptions into the year 2040, discussions revolved around the possible ramifications for public service skills and the broader institutional landscape. Participants mapped out the second-, third-, and fourth-order effects of these changes and reflected on the most significant implications. These initial sessions established a strong foundation for in-depth examination in the days to come.
On the second day, participants engaged in cross-impact analysis, which involved assessing how different disruptions might interact with one another. This exercise enabled them to determine whether certain disruptions could amplify or mitigate each other’s effects, shaping the future of public service in unexpected ways. The groups also identified new challenges and opportunities arising from these interactions. Through structured discussions and clustering exercises, participants developed a more intricate understanding of how multiple disruptions could coalesce to form complex future scenarios. This analysis laid the groundwork for the development of more comprehensive policy responses.
Building upon these insights, the third day was dedicated to the development of fully formed future scenarios. Participants worked collaboratively to create detailed narratives that depicted the world in 2040 under various disruption scenarios. These narratives were structured around key dimensions, including society, technology, economy, environment, and governance. Through a facilitated process, groups refined their scenarios into cohesive stories that illustrated the implications of emerging challenges and opportunities. Each group then summarised its findings in a concise presentation, ensuring that key themes and strategic considerations were effectively communicated.
The final day focused on translating these foresight insights into actionable strategies. Participants revisited their scenarios to identify the challenges and opportunities that would shape the future of public service work. Key questions guided these discussions, including what skills public servants would need, how government operations should evolve, and what immediate actions could be taken to prepare for these eventualities. Groups formulated concrete policy recommendations, identifying measures that could be implemented across all scenarios as well as those tailored to specific disruptions. The workshop concluded with a synthesis of these strategies, highlighting synergies and areas of tension, followed by a discussion on next steps and the integration of these insights into ongoing efforts.
The foresight process was designed to provide direction on how future disruptions might influence all elements of the nation, including government, society, and the business community, and how these changes might alter citizens’ expectations of government service delivery. This process helped participants to reflect on unexpected possible futures, such as those where accelerated AI-driven automation results in abundance that helps to meet citizens’ material needs but causes increased unemployment. This led to discussion of ways to promote meaning and fulfilment among Lithuanian citizens in a world where demand for labour falls far below conventional expectations. Participants worked to develop strategies for skills development that could account for this radically altered future without jeopardising the development of skills needed for the economy today.
Opportunities and next steps for Lithuania’s capacity-building efforts
The methodological workshops in Lithuania served as an initial step in constructing a curriculum map for various audiences. The foundational content and enhanced approaches introduced in these sessions offer further opportunities for more advanced modules and courses. These could include dedicated and focused series on specialised methodologies and frameworks.
For instance, in the Ministry of Transport and Communications, the foundational concepts of complexity and uncertainty offer a basis for exploring methodologies such as systems thinking and scenario planning. Incorporating frameworks for decision making under deep uncertainty could help the ministry conduct more comprehensive, sector-specific analyses of challenges, such as climate change and preparedness for technological disruptions in mobility, as well as in the information and communication technology sector.
Additional opportunities can focus on the needs of leadership and the technical skills of policymakers and foresight producers, such as anticipatory intelligence systems and interpretation of large datasets to improve contextual interpretation.
For foresight producers and policymakers:
The Strategic Flexibility for Policy Programme could provide frameworks and guidance on scenario building, stakeholder mapping, and deriving actionable insights. This would further address the lack of knowledge around foresight methods and how they can be applied to concrete activity in the public administration.
Also, from the Strategic Flexibility for Policy Programme, the Futures Thinking: Mindsets, Behaviours, and Building Futures Literacy course could reinforce long-term thinking among policymakers. This could help cultivate skills to challenge biases, apply behavioural science insights to policy design, and explore the use of risk management in foresight practice.
For senior leaders:
The Proactive Leadership Programme could further explore the skills necessary for policy execution and decision making in a context of uncertainty. This is particularly relevant after the Parliamentary approval of LT2050, as leaders navigate the complex landscape of implementing strategies in the country’s long-term vision. In addition, the increasing security concerns in Lithuania’s political context has placed foresight in a more prominent role in resilience planning. Recent initiatives by the Office of the Government, such as workshops on “black swan” events, reflect a growing recognition of the need to anticipate disruptions and further connect foresight activities with security issues.
Lithuania’s leadership could also benefit from courses on building anticipatory culture and capacity in government. This could sustain structures using foresight practices and align them with long-term national objectives. This effort will be supported by the civil service reform, which aims to develop civil servants’ competencies, provide flexible management of human resources, and add innovative capacity in the public administration.
5.4.2. Italy
According to Bandera, Giusti and Lippi (2024[25]), academia and think tanks have not played as prominent a role in promoting strategic foresight in Italy as in some other countries, such as Finland. The authors explain that Italy has a more fragmented landscape, with limited academic programmes dedicated specifically to strategic foresight. However, exceptions exist, such as the University of Trento, where scholars have contributed to the study of anticipatory governance (Poli, 2017[26]), and where the university’s master’s degree in social foresight (previsione sociale) offers training for professionals in both the public and private sectors.
SNA training programme (2020-2023)
From 2020 to 2023, SNA offered foresight courses to civil servants.2 The content and syllabus of courses range from introduction to futures studies, anticipatory governance, anticipatory risk management, and introduction to key foresight methods and tools, such as back-casting, three horizons, megatrend analysis and scenario planning.
Courses conducted at SNA up to 2023 focused on consolidating anticipatory thinking skills and encouraging participants to apply them to different policy areas, such as the future of energy, the future of mobility, and the future of health. SNA capacity-building initiatives followed OECD recommendations, which encouraged governments to “use existing tools such as strategic foresight, scenario development and systems thinking approaches in the formulation and implementation of policies, to identify, prevent and mitigate actual and potential adverse impacts on the well-being and sustainable development prospects of future generations” (OECD, 2022, p. 8[23]). The courses introduce methodologies for managing high levels of uncertainty in the public administration, which are important for decision-making processes in innovation contexts, transformation, and anticipatory risk management.
SNA training programme (2024)
In 2024, SNA added three additional strategic foresight training for leadership in the central public administration, managers and officials in decision-making roles, or those who support decision makers.
A monthlong course, “La previsione strategica: futuro e metodi di anticipazione” (Strategic Foresight: The future and methods of anticipation), was held in May 2024. It included a range of topics covering recent EU policy proposals and the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It also aimed to introduce the strategic foresight work conducted by the European Commission, as well as the importance of intergenerational justice and fairness and the challenges involved in developing positive and preferred images of the future. It also included efforts to learn about anticipatory governance and the work of international organisations such as the OECD, demonstrating that the training was aligned with current policy frameworks and worldwide best practices. The programme emphasised hands-on, practical applications of foresight methods and tools, including the “three horizons” method and scenario planning. Ultimately, participants were encouraged to apply such methods in strategy development, action plans, and to understand how they can be integrated into risk management frameworks.
“Laboratorio di strategic foresight e anticipatory governance” (Strategic Foresight and Anticipatory Governance Workshop) was a two-month training programme (May-June 2024) designed for the Italian public administration, focusing on how strategic foresight can be institutionalised in Italy.
The course aimed to draft a roadmap for the institutionalisation of strategic foresight at the centre of government. This overarching goal was translated into several operational objectives:
1. Transferring skills in strategic foresight methods and anticipatory governance approaches by developing shared practices and inspiring pilot initiatives
2. Developing the capacity to implement these methods within central administrations by putting them into practice
3. Defining a roadmap for integrating methods and approaches into governance processes
4. Helping to build a community of practice
5. Promoting a shared culture of strategic foresight.
The participants came from the following institutions: the Presidency of the Council, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of External Affairs, the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of University, and the Ministry of Industry.
“Megatrend e anticipazione del futuro” (Megatrends and future anticipation) (October 2024) focused on offering participants an in-depth learning experience about megatrends and their relevance for public decision-making processes.
Opportunities for the SNA training programme based on the OECD’s capacity-building programmes
The training programme offered by the SNA is supported by anticipatory governance frameworks and foresight experts. Aiming to align Italy’s current training with the recently developed OECD curriculum, the table below highlights opportunities for improving SNA’s training programmes. The opportunities for improvement listed below (see Table 5.2) are based on an analysis of available documents, which do not provide in-depth information on the content of the training.
5.4.3. Malta
To try out some key topics relevant for Malta’s public administration, three in-person capacity-building programme workshops were held in June 2024 in Malta, in collaboration with the Co-ordination and Implementation Division of the Office of the Prime Minister and the Institute for the Public Services (see Table 5.3).
The first workshop focused on mapping the strategic foresight curriculum for the Maltese public administration. Based on the curriculum developed by the OECD as part of the LIMinal project, this workshop tailored the general curriculum to the specific needs, resources, and organisational situation in Malta. The OECD guided participants through a discussion on recommended programmes, target groups, key learning objectives, skills, training modalities, and operational considerations for establishing strategic foresight capacity-building as part of ongoing development in Malta.
The second workshop focused on policymaking in uncertain contexts for policymakers and heads of policy teams. The workshop was planned in line with capacity-building needs identified in relation to Programme 2: Strategic Flexibility for Policy Programme. The workshop included sessions aimed at designing more robust, flexible, and adaptable policies. It also focused on developing a deeper understanding of key approaches for navigating uncertainty and complexity in policymaking and strategy development.
The third workshop was an executive training programme in strategic foresight for senior officials in Malta’s public service. The workshop was planned according to capacity-building needs identified in relation to Programme 4: Proactive Leadership Programme. The workshop combined a curriculum on foresight purposes, approaches, and methods targeted at senior decision makers, using interactive learning modules. It also included a session on futures dialogues.
Assessment of first- and second-priority curriculum modules
Based on the presumed structures and functions of proposed strategic foresight units in Malta, an assessment of first- and second-priority skills and associated curriculum modules was performed independently for the proposed Central Unit for anticipatory governance and the proposed Ministerial Units. A full list of proposed modules for the Central Unit and Ministerial Units can be found in Annex C. The following capability areas and associated training modules, drawn from a comprehensive curriculum developed by the OECD, are recommended for officials involved in proposed strategic foresight units in Malta.
Key themes for the Central Unit training curricula
The strategic foresight training curriculum for the proposed Central Unit aims to equip participants with the skills and knowledge to co-ordinate and lead foresight activities in various ministries. Collaboration, innovation, strategic flexibility, futures thinking, continuous learning, effective communication, leadership, systemic thinking, and use of data are integral to the unit’s role. These themes ensure that the unit can anticipate future challenges, develop resilient and adaptive policies, shape a culture of proactive governance, and effectively communicate foresight insights to drive strategic decisions (see Table 5.4).
Key themes for the ministerial unit training curricula
The strategic foresight training curricula proposed for strategic foresight units in ministries includes topics vital for ministerial units that enhance the ability to produce sector-specific strategic foresight knowledge and use it in policy development and strategic planning. Promoting collaboration, proactive and creative thinking, continuous learning, and ethical governance, the training programmes aim to build robust foresight capability, which is essential to address the complex, uncertain challenges facing Malta. Common themes in the proposed topics highlight several critical areas essential for these roles (see Table 5.5).
5.5.1. Capacity building to address challenges in governance
While using challenge areas in governance as an entry point for capacity building was a novel approach at the early stages of the LIMinal project, it has provided a clear path from assessing anticipatory governance challenges to comprehensive capacity-building programmes. Validation discussions with LIMinal countries and peers endorsed the viability of the approach. This approach has also been shown to complement recommendations from the country assessments, as the programmes are broad and comprehensive, spanning both the authorising environment and agency of government.
The programme design, with supporting output in the shape of a Guidebook, a Curriculum Map, and tailored capacity-building recommendations, have as a first step provided Italy and Malta with a path forward in developing their AIG. Better use of strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation shows promise for applying the “challenge areas/capacity-building programmes” approach in other EU countries and beyond.
The LIMinal project is the start of a process, and while it has made progress in several institutions and ministries in each country, the end of the project is not a finish line. It has initiated the modernisation of public administration with new approaches, fields, and tools for developing policy. The training itself is not enough. A structure of demand and support are also needed.
5.5.2. Capability and skills development
To some extent, building strategic foresight capability in the LIMinal project has been seen as part of a holistic process of upskilling the public administration, rather than an isolated component to improve policymaking. Strategic foresight should become a fundamental factor in public administration management. In Lithuania, the understanding was that strategic foresight should be part of a broader training package rather than an individual offering. Greater concern was shown in Lithuania (and in Italy and Malta) for building an anticipatory governance culture to make sure that acquired foresight competencies did not become obsolete.
On the other hand, Italy’s SNA has created a “strategic foresight laboratory” as part of its training 2024 catalogue. Intended for managers involved in decision-making processes, it is a dedicated and intensive initiative that provides participants a learning environment to explore foresight methods and best practices in anticipatory governance in Italy’s public administration and from international peers.
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← 1. Bloom’s Taxonomy is a hierarchical classification of levels of thinking to be applied when creating course objectives. Blooms Taxonomy: Resource for Educators, (accessed on 15-05-2024).
← 2. According to a SNA document, “Corsi SNA Strategic Foresight” (30 March 2023), 27 public institutions participated in the trainings, with a total of 321 participants. The institutions with the highest number of participants were from the Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri (105), and the Istituto Nazionale di Previdenza Sociale (75).