Building Anticipatory Capacity with Strategic Foresight in Government

Annex A. Project activities undertaken in Lithuania, Italy, and Malta

The main activities conducted in each country to address the project’s objectives and research questions are described below. These activities and action research included missions, meetings, workshops, focus groups, and widely distributed surveys, in addition to desk research and analysis carried out throughout the project.

The activities were designed to support and inform the various assessments and capacity building efforts. The information gathered by the OECD contributed to the analysis of existing institutional structures and organisational capacities for foresight, as well as a review of the state of foresight knowledge across different ministries and government agencies. The activities also provided insights into the prospects for building foresight ecosystems and institutional structures that can support anticipatory innovation and strategic foresight in policymaking.

This work has been necessary to identify types of foresight practices across government, opportunities to strengthen strategic foresight practices, and the functions and structures needed to support these practices.

Lithuania

Project activities

• Three fact-finding missions took place in June and October 2023, and January-February 2024. During these the OECD met with representatives from STRATA and ministries in Lithuania, including the Office of the Government. The OECD also met with key stakeholders and members of a working group dedicated to preparing and supporting the development of a strategic foresight roadmap for Lithuania.

• Four focus groups took place. Three focus groups hosted by STRATA and the OECD took place in Lithuania, in June 2023, with representatives from different ministries and STRATA with the purpose of understanding Lithuanian civil servants and policy analysts’ perspectives and ideas on what role(s) futures thinking and anticipation could bring to their work and day-to-day activities. One focus group in February 2024 with members of the working group Committee for the Future, dedicated to the preparation of a strategic foresight White Book for Lithuania, to map out the functions and structures of Lithuania’s foresight ecosystem and identify ways to permeate a foresight culture.

• A survey was administered online within a period from January 22^nd to February 29^th, 2024. The questionnaire was sent to approximately 40,000 civil servants and aimed at better understanding the civil service’s openness to change and innovation and examining capacity for futures thinking. A total of 4,366 responses were received, achieving an estimated completion rate of 10.1%.

• A 5-part series of methodological strategic foresight workshops for capacity building was held.

• A 4-part stress-testing workshop series was conducted by the OECD Strategic Foresight Unit (combined all in one mission).

Italy

Project activities

• A fact-finding mission took place in September 2023, when the OCED met with representatives from SNA to learn about the prospects of building a foresight ecosystem in Italy and the institutional structures that can support anticipatory innovation and strategic foresight in policymaking.

• Interviews took place in April 2023, and a validation focus group in September 2023.

• A survey was administered online within a period from February 26^th to March 13^th, 2024. The questionnaire was sent to approximately 4157 civil servants, and aimed at better understanding the civil service’s openness to change and innovation, and examining its capacity for futures thinking. A total of 686 responses were received, achieving an estimated completion rate of 16.5%.

• Six case examples of foresight at national and regional level have been studied.

Malta

Project activities

• Three fact-finding missions took place in June 2023, and January and June 2024, during which the OECD met with representatives from Office of the Prime Minister, the Institute for the Public Service the Government, and various ministries to learn about the prospects of building a foresight ecosystem in Malta, and institutional structures that can support anticipatory innovation and strategic foresight in policymaking.

• Interviews which took place in March 2023, and a focus group in June 2023.

• A survey was administered online within a period from August to October 2023. The questionnaire was sent to approximately 1700 civil servants, and aimed at better understanding the civil service’s openness to change and innovation, and examining its capacity for futures thinking. A total of 1151 responses were received, achieving an estimated completion rate of 3.8%.

• Two pilot cases took place, with Ministry for Education, Sport, Youth, Research and Innovation on futures personas, and with the Ministry for Social Policy and Children’s Rights on anticipating uncertainty.

• Capacity building was undertaken in June 2024, using the LIMinal curriculum and OECD recommendations as basis.