OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with input from Member governments and international commodity organisations. It provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity, fish and biofuel markets at national, regional and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 presents the trends driving food and agricultural markets over the coming decade. While progress is expected on many important fronts, in order to realize the 2030 Agenda and achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs), concerted actions and additional improvements will be needed by the agricultural sector. More information can be found at

Published on July 05, 2021Also available in: Spanish, French

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Abbreviations and acronyms
Executive Summary
Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects
Regional briefs
Oilseeds and oilseed products
Dairy and dairy products
Other products
Annexes3 chapters available
Statistical Annex
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Key insights

Food availability remains uneven

While average global food availability is expected to reach 3 025 kcal/person/day by 2030, in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 224 million people were undernourished before the pandemic, food availability will only increase to 2 500 kcal/person/day. Income losses following the COVID-19 pandemic moved us further away from achieving SDG2 on zero hunger.

Livestock are emissions-intensive

Agricultural GHG emissions will grow by 4% by 2030, livestock accounting for (more than) 80% of this increase. Additional policy effort is needed for the agricultural sector to effectively contribute to the global reduction in GHG emissions set in the Paris Agreement.

Yields are improving

87% of the overall expansion in crop production by 2030 is expected to come from yield growth, including through digitalisation, and the adoption of new technologies and seed varieties. Yield growth limits the additional land requirement for agricultural production.