The Ocean Economy to 2050

1. Steering the ocean economy to be productive and sustainable

Abstract

This first chapter summarises the key findings and recommendations from this report on The Ocean Economy to 2050. The report underlines the ocean economy’s importance for the global economy over the last few decades, as well as its resilience, and highlights the pressing need to address structural vulnerabilities. Looking ahead, many of the major forces shaping the future of the ocean economy threaten to weaken both its growth and resilience. By strengthening governance, promoting technological innovation, enhancing data collection, and promoting the inclusion of developing countries, policymakers can lay the foundations for an ocean economy that is both economically vibrant and environmentally sustainable. This coordinated approach will be critical to creating jobs, generating revenue, and ensuring long-term ocean health in an increasingly digital and interconnected world.

Introduction

The ocean supports life on earth, representing 90% of the planet’s biosphere, covering about 71% of Earth's surface and providing over half of the planet’s oxygen. It also plays a vital role for the global economy. Ocean economic activities contribute to prosperity, with fisheries and marine harvesting supporting food security for over three billion people. Shipping and ports facilitate international trade with more than 80% of goods transported by sea, while undersea cables carry over 98% of international Internet traffic, underpinning digital connectivity worldwide. Beyond these already impressive numbers, the ocean economy represents revenues and jobs for hundreds of millions of people.

This chapter summarises the key findings and recommendations from the report on The Ocean Economy to 2050, which provides new OECD insights on the importance of ocean economic activities in the global economy. It also delivers sobering insights into potential future trends, as ocean health faces mounting pressures from overexploitation, environmental degradation, and climate change impacts, while the ocean economy exhibits some structural vulnerabilities as well. A more sustainable future is possible—if policymakers leverage advances in science and innovation, and apply existing policy and regulatory instruments, to adopt practices that balance economic growth with conservation efforts.

This Chapter delivers first unprecedented data on the ocean economy’s performance between 1995 and 2020. It then explores potential trajectories for the ocean economy evolution in the coming decades, highlighting some major shaping forces. It ends with proposed actions that policymakers could take to sustain ocean-based employment and revenue, while setting the ocean economy on more sustainable pathways.

Box 1.1. The ocean economy in figures

• The global ocean economy represented 3% to 4% of the global overall economy annually between 1995 and 2020

• The size of the ocean economy doubled in real terms from USD 1.3 trillion in 1995 to USD 2.6 trillion in 2020, accruing an annual average growth rate of 3%

• At its peak, the ocean economy employed 151 million FTE in 2006, gradually falling to 134 million FTE in 2019, and then to 101 million FTE in 2020, as COVID-19 restrictions set in. Recovery occurred since then.

• Marine and coastal tourism and offshore oil and gas extraction were the two largest ocean economic activities. GVA generated by marine and coastal tourism reached a high of USD 789 billion in 2019, while offshore oil/gas and offshore industry peaked at USD 988 billion in 2020

• Marine and coastal tourism was the largest employer in the ocean economy by a wide margin, with employment reaching a peak of 95 million FTE in 2003 before falling to 79 million FTE in 2019

• Over 75% of global ocean economic growth is from countries in Asia and the Pacific with more than 55% created by countries in Eastern Asia alone

• Although high-income countries generated the most global ocean economy GVA, this dominance weakened over time with their share falling from 71% in 1995 to 52% in 2019

• Eastern Asia and Southern and Central Asia were the largest employers in aggregate at regional level, with respective contributions of 29% and 21% to global ocean economy FTE in 2019

• Only a small share of FTEs in the global ocean economy were employed in high-income countries, ranging from 15% in 1995 to 12% in 2019

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

The ocean economy’s performance between 1995 and 2020

Between 1995 and 2020, the ocean economy contributed a sizable share of global economic output and provided a consistent source of prosperity for hundreds of millions of people. This section summarises the past performance of the global ocean economy, the factors that could threaten or strengthen its prospects, and projections of its potential through to 2050.

The ocean economy is an important part of the global economy

The global ocean economy generated USD 2.3 trillion of current price gross value added (GVA) and 102 million full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs in 2020 (the latest year international statistics are available). The equivalent figures in 2019 – the last year available before Covid-19 disrupted economies globally – are USD 2.7 trillion in GVA and 133 million FTEs. Annually between 1995 and 2020, the global ocean economy contributed 3.0% to 4.0% of the total GVA in the overall global economy (Figure 1.1) and 3.5% to 4.7% of total FTEs. If considered a country, the global ocean economy would have been the world’s fifth largest economy in GVA terms in 2019 (seventh in 2020) having risen from eighth in the 1995 ranking.

Figure 1.1. The global ocean economy provided between 3.0% and 4.0% of global economic output and between 3.5% and 4.7% of global employment annually from 1995 to 2020

Global ocean economy gross value added and full-time equivalents shares of global overall economy gross value added and full-time equivalents

Note: Total global gross value added in current price US dollars and employment in full-time equivalents generated by ocean economic activities as a share of total global overall economy gross value added in current price US dollars and employment in full-time equivalents in each year.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

The median share of country-level overall economy GVA and FTEs attributable to the ocean economy remained roughly similar across regions between 1995 and 2020 (Figure 1.2). The lowest median ocean economy to overall economy GVA share is in ‘Northern America’ (1.6% of overall GVA and 2.1% of overall FTE) and the highest FTE share is in ‘South-eastern Asia and Oceania’ (7.6% of overall GVA and 7.3% of overall FTE).

The relatively narrow range in median shares across regions masks noticeable country outliers (Figure 1.2). In Europe, for example, Norway’s ocean economy represents a much higher share of its overall economy GVA (26.8%) and FTE (17.1%) than the average (3.1% of GVA and 4.0% of FTEs). The regions with the highest country-level ratios of ocean-economy to overall-economy GVA are ‘Northern Africa and Western Asia’ and ‘Sub-Saharan Africa’, both of which contain ocean and overall economies that are dominated by offshore and terrestrial oil and gas extraction. The largest FTE shares on average over the period are found in ‘Southern Asia and Central Asia’ and ‘South-Eastern Asia and Oceania’ where marine and coastal tourism dominate.

Figure 1.2. Average ocean economy to overall economy shares are mostly similar across regions, but some countries have large shares relative to their peers

Country-level total ocean economy to overall economy gross value added and full-time equivalents shares by region

Note: Country-level total ocean economy gross value added and full-time equivalents shares of overall economy gross value added and full time equivalents are calculated first. The chart displays the minimum and maximum country-level shares in each region and the median of the country-level shares in each region as well as the arithmetic means across countries over the whole period.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

Ocean economic output grew steadily between 1995 and 2020 and this growth was disproportionately generated in Asia and the Pacific

The global ocean economy – as measured by real-terms GVA – grew at an average rate of roughly 2.8% per year without experiencing any prolonged episodes of negative growth (Figure 1.3). This resulted in a doubling of real-terms GVA from USD 1.3 trillion in 1995 to USD 2.6 trillion in 2020. Global ocean economy employment remained relatively stable over the period, growing from 122 million FTE in 1995 at an average of 0.4% per year to 134 million in 2019 (Figure 1.3). It suddenly dropped to 102 million in 2020 at the onset of Covid-19 restrictions, which notably hit tourism, but started to recover the following years.

Figure 1.3. Global ocean economy output grew at 2.8% and employment at 0.4% on average between 1995 and 2020

Annual growth rates in global ocean economy real-terms gross value added and full-time equivalents

Note: Annual percentage changes in total global ocean economy gross value added chained volumes and employment full-time equivalents.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

The majority – roughly 75% – of growth in global ocean economy real-terms GVA between 1995 and 2020 was generated in regions in Asia and Pacific. Figure 1.4 plots average regional GVA shares of global ocean economy GVA against average regional ocean economy real-terms GVA growth rates so that the area of each bar represents the contribution of each region to global ocean economy growth.

The region with the highest average growth rate (given by the height of the bar) was ‘South-Eastern Asia and Oceania’. But this region represented a relatively small part of the global ocean economy (given by the width of the bar), leaving its weighted contribution to average ocean economy growth at 7.6%. ‘Northern-America’, on the other hand, represents a much larger portion of the global ocean economy but grew much slower than all other regions hence the flatter rectangle towards the right-hand side of Figure 1.4. Although it did not possess the largest average growth rate, the region with the highest weighted contribution was ‘Eastern Asia’ which generated 56.0% of global ocean economy growth on average over the period.

Figure 1.4. Over 75% of global ocean economic growth is from countries in regions in Asia and the Pacific with more than 55% created by countries in Eastern Asia alone

Regional average total ocean economy real-terms growth weighted by the regional average share of global ocean economy real-terms gross value added

Note: The area of each bar is proportional to the average of countries in each regions’ share of global ocean economy real-terms gross value added growth between 1995 and 2019. The regional 1995 to 2019 arithmetic mean of country-level total ocean economy real-terms gross value added plotted against the regional weighted average compound annual growth in total ocean economy real-terms gross value added between 1995 and 2019.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

Some countries have large ocean economies while others are reliant on the ocean economy as a proportion of their overall economy

In 2020, the countries with the largest ocean economies were the People’s Republic of China (hereafter ‘China’) with 23.6% of global ocean economy current price GVA, Japan (7.1%), United States (7.0%), India (5.0%), and the United Kingdom (4.9%).

As a comparison, China contributed 3.2% of global ocean economy current price GVA and ranked ninth in 1995. The highest-ranking countries in 1995 were Japan (21.4%), United States (11.0%), United Kingdom (9.2%), Italy (5.6%) and Saudi Arabia (3.5%). On average over the period, Japan was the largest ocean economy with an average 1995 to 2020 share of global ocean economy current price GVA of 11.7%, followed by China (10.5%), United States (9.3%), United Kingdom (7.6%) and Norway (5.3%).

In real-terms gross value added, the United States was the OECD member country with the largest ocean economy between 2008 and 2020 (Panel A of Figure 1.5). Pre-2008, the top position switched between the United Kingdom, Japan and the United States. The top five OECD member country ocean economies in average real-terms GVA also includes Norway and Mexico.

The largest OECD member country ocean economy as a proportion of its overall economy was Norway with 26.6% on average between 1995 and 2020 (Panel B of Figure 1.5). Iceland (average of 14.7% of overall economy GVA), Greece (7.7%), Mexico (7.2%) and Denmark (6.3%) also feature in the top five OECD member countries. Norway’s ocean economy reached a peak as a share of its overall economy in 2006 at 33.1% (the lowest share in Norway was in 1995 at 20.5%). Iceland’s ocean to overall economy share dropped from a high of 21.8% in 1995 to a low of 10.0% in 2007 before levelling off to an average of 12.9% for the remainder of the period. All other top five OECD member countries’ shares remain roughly equal over the time period.

Figure 1.5. Within the OECD, the United States had the largest ocean economy in absolute terms and Norway had the largest ocean economy as a proportion of its overall economy

Country-level total ocean economy real-terms gross value added and total ocean to overall economy gross value added shares

Note: Coastal OECD member countries are ranked according to their average total ocean economy real-terms gross value added and their ocean to overall economy current price gross value added shares across the period. Annual real-terms gross value added and ocean to overall economy shares for the top five countries in this ranking are displayed in the charts.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

A diverse set of economic activities are included in the ocean economy

The OECD Ocean Economy Monitor measures 33 individual ocean economic activities and provides seven separate activity aggregates called ocean economic activity groups. The ocean economic activity groups ‘marine and coastal tourism’ and ‘offshore oil/gas extraction and offshore industry’ were the largest contributors to global ocean economy GVA between 1995 and 2020 –– together accounting for around two-thirds of the total in each year (Figure 1.6).

In annual terms, ‘marine and costal tourism’ was the largest ocean economic activity group in global real-terms GVA between 1995 and 2019 when it hit a peak of USD 1.06 trillion. Real-terms GVA in the activity group then fell to USD 910 billion in 2020 because of the restrictions put in place during Covid-19. Conversely, ‘offshore oil/gas extraction and offshore industry’ reached a peak in 2020 at USD 987.4 billion and replaced ‘marine and coastal tourism’ as the largest ocean economic activity that year.

Figure 1.6. Two ocean economic activity groups dominate the global ocean economy: 'Offshore oil/gas extraction and offshore industry' and 'marine and coastal tourism'

Five-year period average global ocean economic activity group real-terms gross value added

Note: The arithmetic mean of global ocean economic activity group chained volume measures for each five-year period between 1995 and 2019.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

Ocean economic activity groups generating high levels of GVA do not employ high levels of full-time equivalents. Differences in the average levels of real-terms GVA and FTE across ocean economic activity groups in different countries can be seen in Figure 1.7, where each point represents the average performance of a country for a given ocean economic activity group. The ‘oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ group is represented by a noticeable cluster of orange diamonds positioned toward the upper-left of Figure 1.7. This indicates a combination of higher-GVA and lower-FTE levels compared to other ocean economic activity groups and suggests this group generates substantial output but employs fewer workers relative to others. In contrast, ‘marine and coastal tourism’ (yellowish squares) exhibits both high GVA and high FTE figures in general. Another cluster of green diamonds – representing ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ – is noticeable towards the bottom-left of Figure 1.7, underlining its current status as a low GVA and low FTE activity group.

Figure 1.7. Ocean economic activity groups generating high levels of gross value added do not necessarily create high employment and vice versa

Average ocean economy activity group full-time equivalents and average ocean economy activity group gross value added

Note: The arithmetic mean of country-level ocean economy activity group full-time equivalents between 1995 and the arithmetic mean of country-level ocean economy activity group real-terms gross value added between 1995 and 2019. Only the 76 OECD Inter-Country Input Output Tables countries are included in the chart for clarity.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

Growth in many ocean economic activities outpaced average industry growth between 1995 and 2020

Real-terms GVA in most ocean economic activity groups grew at a faster rate than average industry growth in the wider economy each year between 1995 and 2020 (Figure 1.8). Between 2008 and 2020, ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’ performed particularly strongly growing at a rate three times higher than average industry growth at its top level in 2011. ‘Maritime transport and maritime ports’, ‘marine and maritime industry trade, transport and R&D services’ and ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ all consistently outperform average industry real-terms GVA growth. ‘Marine and coastal tourism’ did not distinguish itself from average industry growth until 2010 when it begins to pick up. However, ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture and marine fish processing’ grew at a rate roughly equivalent to average industry growth throughout the period.

Real-terms gross value added in ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ increased dramatically from 2000 when industrial production from the activity group is first recorded in the OECD Ocean Economy Monitor. ‘Offshore wind and marine renewables’ real-terms GVA grows from USD 38.2 million in 2000 to USD 4.6 billion in 2020 – exhibiting an average annual growth rate far beyond all other ocean economic activity groups and the average industry in the overall economy.

Figure 1.8. Economic growth in ocean economic activity groups outpaced average industry growth between 1995 and 2020

Global ocean economic activity group real-terms gross value added index and global weighted average industry real-terms gross value added index

Note: Gross value added chained volume indexes with a reference year of 2015 set so that 1995 equals 100 in Panel A and 2020 equals 100 in Panel B are calculated for each ocean economic activity group and the average industry. The weighted industry average is measured by calculating relevant industry group level real-terms growth rates, weighting each industry group by the share of its contribution to total overall economy gross value added, and chaining together. Panel B is based on 2020 because it is the first year in which offshore wind and marine renewables begins to produce gross value added according to the OECD Ocean Economy Monitor.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

How might the ocean economy grow in the coming decades?

If historical trends were to continue, the global ocean economy could become four times larger in real terms by 2050 than it was in 1995. Productivity analysis outlined in Chapter 4 serves as the foundation for a baseline projection of the future ocean economy through to 2050. The contribution of various input factors – information and communication technology (ICT) capital services, non-ICT capital services, the education composition of the labour force and multifactor productivity – to GVA growth are estimated. Past trends in these contributions are then used in a projection model that estimates real-terms GVA growth through to 2050. However, analysis of the forces shaping future ocean economic growth outlined below suggest basing projections solely on the historical record would lead to overly optimistic growth trajectories.

Pressures on the ocean economy will likely grow in the coming decades

Most ocean economic activities should continue benefitting from underlying economic and social trends in the next two decades. However, even with innovations on the horizon to face some of these challenges, pressures are mounting on many fronts for the ocean and several ocean economic activities. In all scenarios, ocean economy growth will be affected and may eventually decline if no actions on improving ocean governance are taken.

• The policy frameworks and governance mechanisms for the ocean and the ocean economy have been strengthening over the past decade at both national and international levels. However, as strategic and economic interests in the ocean continue to expand, so do the challenges of co-operation and effective management of this global commons (Chapter 2). The increasing territorial claims over ocean waters—now encompassing approximately 39% of the global ocean under some national sovereign rights—along with the expansion of illicit activities at sea, are transforming the ocean into an increasingly competitive environment. A range of critical issues—from safeguarding freedom of navigation, regulating greenhouse gas emissions from ships, and combating illicit activities such as illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, drug trafficking, and industrial pollution from both land and maritime sources—would require increased attention from policymakers at different levels and in coordination. Without actions, these challenges could become ever more complex and intertwined, threatening not only further ocean health but also economic activities.

• The rapid expansion and concentration of ocean industries, coupled with overfishing, expanded biological and mineral extraction, and continued harmful subsidies in fishing in particular——risk exacerbating environmental externalities globally. The rapid expansion and concentration of ocean industries, coupled with insufficient regulatory oversight—resulting in overfishing, unsustainable biological and mineral extraction, and continued harmful subsidies—risk exacerbating environmental externalities globally. These impacts extend beyond coastal areas, potentially undermining the long-term viability of key ocean economic activities in some countries, such as artisanal capture fisheries and marine and coastal tourism (Chapter 2).

• Growing climate change effects (sea level rise, acidification, changing fish stocks patterns…) will affect not only ocean health and its biodiversity, but also industries faced with growing risks of extreme weather and sea level rise impacts (growing threats to infrastructure at sea: oil and gas rigs, offshore wind, aquaculture and ports, as well as capture fisheries) (OECD, 2022[1]; OECD, 2016[2]).

• Increased terrestrial pollution (plastics, chemicals, waste management) will be impacting several ocean-based industries, particularly those relying on living resources (capture fisheries) and pristine environment (coastal and marine tourism). The amount of plastic entering the environment annually by 2040 is for instance expected to nearly double compared to 2022 if there are no policy reorientations (OECD, 2024[3]).

• Furthermore, the ocean economy risks missing out on potential productivity gains from major economic transformations expected in the decades to come. Investment in the ocean economy has been tilted away from information and communication technologies (ICTs) and towards capital such as machinery and equipment. But ICTs can drive efficiency gains and the failure to integrate advances in the underlying technologies may over time lead to serious loss of competitiveness.

Recent scientific and economic literature have been used to recognise differences in the magnitude of the potential effects of various shaping forces on the future global ocean economy. Figure 1.9 displays the results of this modelling work. Each shaping force is considered in isolation, all else remaining equal, and compared to the baseline projection which assumes that historical trends persist. The shaping force with the largest upside potential on the global ocean economy is an increase in capital services productivity across ocean economic activity groups. The shaping force with the largest downside concerns the effects of climate change on income.

Figure 1.9. Isolated shaping forces are likely to have effects of different magnitudes on the future ocean economy

Global ocean economy real-terms gross value added under the influence of isolated shaping forces relative to the baseline projection

Note: Gross value added chained volume indexes for the overall economy are calculated under various assumptions outlined in Chapters 4 and 5. The relative index is calculated as the ratio of each shaping force (Chapter 5) chained volume index to the baseline projection (Chapter 4) chained volume indexes setting the baseline projection chained volume indexes equal to 0. The lines represent the mean projected gross value added chained volume indexes calculated from the sum of projected growth in hours worked and the components of labour productivity.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

Different approaches to the energy transition may drive substantial changes in future ocean economic growth

Building on the analysis of major shaping forces, two possible scenarios for the future of the ocean economy are explored based on alternative global energy transition pathways. In the first scenario, the energy transition accelerates through to 2050. In the second scenario, the transition barely progresses until the end of the period (as detailed in Chapter 6).

In both scenarios, global ocean economy GVA growth results in an ocean economy that is larger in real-terms than it was in 1995 when the historical period begins – 2.5 times larger than 1995 under an accelerated transition and 1.5 times larger under a stalled transition (Figure 1.10). The global ocean economy could grow around 40% higher than its 2020 level by 2050 under an accelerated transition scenario. In a stalled energy transition scenario, global ocean economic activity would decline to end the period around 20% lower than it was in 2020.

The alternative scenarios also drive important differences in the composition of the ocean economy. In the accelerated transition scenario, a pronounced shift away from offshore oil and gas extraction reduces the activity’s share of total global ocean economy GVA from a third in 2020 to one-fifth in 2050. In a stalled transition, the effect goes in the other direction and offshore oil and gas extraction increases its share of the total ocean economy to become the dominant activity around 2030. In the accelerated transition scenario, marine and coastal tourism remains the dominant ocean economy activity group through to 2050. But a stalled transition would reduce its share substantially as offshore oil and gas extraction expands. Offshore wind and marine renewables expand at a much faster rate in the accelerated transition, arriving in 2050 with a share 21 times larger than in 2020 as compared with a three-fold increase in the stalled transition.

Figure 1.10. Important shaping forces suggest the future global ocean economy will not grow as fast as historical precedents suggest and may even go backwards

Global ocean economy real-terms gross value added indexes according to three projection scenarios

Note: Gross value added chained volume indexes (1995 = 100) for the global ocean economy are calculated under the assumptions given in Chapter 4 for the baseline projection and Chapters 5 and 6 for the accelerated and stalled transition scenario projections. Each line represents the mean predicted value from the relevant projection.

Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.

Stronger climate, biodiversity, and energy policies are key to the ocean economy’s future

Climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity including marine ecosystems, alongside support for the energy transition, are policy priorities that extend well beyond the ocean economy itself (OECD, 2024[4]). However, as seen in the different scenarios, climate change and energy transition pathways could impact deeply the growth of the ocean economy under different assumptions, as compared to historical trends with even the possibility of an eventual decline in global ocean economic activity.

Successfully developing a resilient and more productive ocean economy will depend largely on the world’s ability to control climate change and mitigate its worst effects, by enhancing biodiversity conservation, sustainable use and restoration as well, and harnessing the expected transformation of the global energy system.

The ocean plays a crucial role in climate regulation, absorbing approximately 25% of global carbon emissions, with stored carbon locked away in seafloor deposits for potentially hundreds of years (IPCC, 2021[5]). This process is supported by a diverse range of marine species, from plankton to mesopelagic fish, which help sustain carbon sequestration (IPBES, 2019[6]). However, while this absorption is part of the climate’s natural cycle, the current levels of emissions are increasingly disrupting the ecological functions of marine organisms, threatening biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides, but also different ocean processes including ocean circulation (Mercator, 2025[7]).

• Continued commitment to curb overall carbon emissions will be necessary, as the impacts of climate change increasingly compromise ocean health and the ocean economic activities that depend on it, as shown in this report. Eutrophication and acidification are placing increasing pressure on marine ecosystems; while rising temperatures, sea levels and extreme weather patterns further exacerbate these challenges, posing various degrees of risk to key activities such as shipping, fisheries, coastal tourism, and port infrastructure. Every incremental increase in temperature compounds these risks, underscoring the need for decisive action. The consequences will be particularly severe for coastal communities and low-income countries in particular lacking finance for adaptation.

• Preventing the rapid loss of biodiversity, including species and marine ecosystems — such as mangroves, salt marshes, coral reefs, and seagrass—driven by human activities particularly in populated coastal areas will be vital. Accelerated loss threatens not only critical roles of these ecosystems in regulating water quality, acting as carbon sinks, and providing coastal defences but also disrupts key ocean-based economic activities, including fishing and coastal tourism that provide food security and livelihoods. Widespread pollution, from plastics but not only, also contributes to these losses (OECD, 2025[8]). Deep sea ecosystems and their role in supporting marine food webs and climate processes are also only starting to be understood, thanks to improved ocean and seabed exploration and mapping (Levin, 2021[9]). Conservation, sustainable use as well as restoration policies with enforcement mechanisms, are needed to support these valuable ecosystems.

• Steering the global energy and transportation system on a path to transition to low-carbon emissions would improve ocean health, despite a reliance on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future (IEA, 2024[10]). An acceleration would mitigate long-term climate change impacts, while adaptation strategies could be implemented in parallel to prepare for accelerated changes in ocean conditions. Science and technology, and particularly digitalisation have a role to play in this transition, enabling more efficient and sustainable ocean management.

Addressing these challenges requires sustained and targeted public and private investments, which not only support economic resilience but also generate long-term benefits for societies and businesses alike (OECD, 2021[11]; OECD, 2025[12]). Overall, encouraging the use of advanced technologies to reduce emissions and enhance energy efficiency would strengthen the long-term performance of ocean economic activities, while meeting wider climate and biodiversity goals.

What actions can policymakers take to set the ocean economy on a more sustainable pathway?

The report highlights both strengths and vulnerabilities of the ocean economy. While ocean economic activities have outpaced overall economic growth for the past two decades, several structural weaknesses remain and will only grow in view of mounting pressures. Productivity growth has been sluggish in many ocean economic activities, and serious challenges lie ahead in terms of ocean health, governance, and digitalisation. 

A combination of stronger governance mechanisms, responsible business practices, and scientific innovation can contribute to have economic activities coexist better with the ocean’s health, ensuring that the ocean remains a global common for future generations while supporting sustainable economic growth.

Four main strategic orientations for targeted policy interventions are needed:

1. Strengthening governance frameworks and collaboration

2. Promoting technological innovation and digital transformation

3. Enhancing sustained ocean observations and scientific research to develop knowledge on ocean processes and improve management

4. And expanding the integration of developing countries in the ocean economy

1. Strengthening governance frameworks and collaboration

To harness the economic potential of the ocean and ensure conservation, sustainable use and restoration of marine ecosystems, critical ocean governance and regulatory frameworks need to be put in place (OECD, 2016[2]). Few countries have comprehensive ocean strategies, and priorities for the ocean economy vary widely depending on cultural and socio-economic contexts. The ocean's cultural significance, strategic role, and economic importance differ for example between different small developing island states in the Caribbean and Pacific on the one hand, and countries with vast but underutilised coastlines on the other. In most cases and as a first step, encouraging improved policy coherence by refining and harmonising existing sectoral policies can effectively address complex ocean governance challenges, leveraging synergies and managing trade-offs (OECD, 2025[13]).

Given the numerous challenges in ocean management highlighted in this report—from balancing competing commercial uses and enhancing a country’s position in the global ocean economy to combating illicit activities at sea—key pragmatic actions to strengthen national ocean governance would include:

• Establishing science-based ocean management frameworks: Over 70 countries have already developed some level of marine spatial planning (MSP) to address growing conflicts of usage along their coasts and beyond (e.g. balancing artisanal fishing ground, marine aquaculture, shipping corridors and marine protected areas) and controlling better their waters. As a growing number of sea basins suffer from combinations of challenges, from agricultural runoffs and land-based pollution to excessive industrial ocean activities, the most effective ocean management systems are the ones based on the best available science, setting up control and enforcement mechanisms (Troya, Ansong and O’Hagan, 2023[14]). This is particularly important for marine protected areas, which provide the most socio-economic benefits when they are fully protected and monitored properly (Pike et al., 2024[15]). More countries are moving beyond MSP to implement “sustainable ocean plans”, so that improved ocean management benefit their economic and sustainable development (Ocean Panel Secretariat, 2021[16]).

• Strengthening engagement in multilateral co-operation to enhance national strategic positioning: Consensus can be hard to reach internationally on many issues, however groups of like-minded countries can effectively advance a global ocean health agenda by ensuring that several key multilateral agreements come into force. International agreements—such as the high seas governance agreement (BBNJ), the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, decarbonisation frameworks under the International Maritime Organization, and treaty efforts to curb plastic pollution —should provide eventually transparent, enforceable rules and strengthen national strategic positioning. Several agreements are open for signature and ratification (Table 1.1). Their rapid or delayed implementation will affect the future of the ocean economy, including further national and commercial investments in selected ocean economic activities.

• Addressing and reducing regulatory gaps: Countries can use a range of regulatory instruments to support efficient natural resource management, with the OECD providing illustrations and tracking of these instruments for the benefit of users (OECD, 2025[17]). Reforming subsidies that risk encouraging unsustainable or illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing in the absence of effective management, as well as investing in improving the monitoring, control and surveillance of fishing fleets are both fundamental to sustainable fisheries. Combating IUU fishing should continue with ongoing discussions at WTO and OECD contributing to this effort (OECD, 2025[18]). There are as yet no global guidelines for countries engaging in seabed mining in national waters (usually in shallow waters), from sand to critical minerals, but the OECD has developed “Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas”, which provides advice as they apply to all mineral supply chains (OECD, 2016[19]). For deep sea mining in the high seas, precautionary approaches should be applied by all to avoid irreversible damage to the ocean environment, as discussions continue within the International Seabed Authority membership.

• Foster proactive public-private dialogue: Governments should set clear policy signals and align economic incentives with sustainability objectives to encourage responsible business practices, while maintaining oversight to ensure that private-sector innovation advances social and environmental priorities. Some companies already align around common sustainability principles (UN Global Compact, 2019[20]). As seen in Chapter 2, industry concentration plays a significant role in many ocean economic activities, with a few major players accounting for the majority of revenue generation. This is evident across sectors such as shipping, offshore oil and gas, and cruise tourism, where large corporations dominate the market. This can be an opportunity for encouraging responsible business practices amongst their peers.

Table 1.1. Status of selected multilateral agreements relevant to ocean governance as of January 2025

Agreement	Number of Signatures	Number of Ratifications (Needed for entry into force)
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)	168	168 (In force since 1994)
Agreement under UNCLOS on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement)	107	16 (60 needed)
World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies	115	91 (111 needed)

2. Promoting technological innovation and digital transformation

Technological progress is a critical lever for closing productivity gaps in the ocean economy and preparing it for a digital future, while using advances to improve in parallel the knowledge base on ocean processes and how they are impacted by ocean economic activities and other pressures. This is a message from the analysis of the performance of ocean economic activities in recent decades (Chapter 4). Policymakers should drive investments in advanced technologies while also encouraging private actors to continuously upgrade workforce skills and capabilities.

• Invest in advanced technologies: Policymakers should drive investments in advanced technologies, notably as part of support programmes to help different industries transition to low carbon emissions. Much R&D is still needed in many industries including marine aquaculture, energy production and shipbuilding (OECD, 2025[21]). Further investment in ICT-intensive capital, automation, robotics, and digital solutions should be explored, as they can boost productivity as well.

• Strengthen workforce development in the ocean economy: Policymakers should encourage with private actors the development of long-term pipelines of talent, skills and knowledge in ocean domains of expertise, while implementing comprehensive up-skilling and re-skilling programmes (OECD, 2019[22]). Several countries have also set up fast-track apprenticeship schemes, contributing to retain and make better use of the experience of older workers, while enhancing on-the-job training (Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment, 2023[23]). Regular updates of education curricula to equip workers with the tools needed for a more automated, digital world are also increasingly necessary in almost all ocean economic activities, from shipbuilding to ports operations and marine aquaculture. In addition, safety aspects will remain crucial in many ocean economic activities, from artisanal fishermen to ocean manufacturing. For example, the move from conventional engine design to alternative fuel systems in shipping (especially ammonia) requires not only new engineering and maintenance expertise but also safety protocols for fuel handling.

• Leverage maritime clusters and innovation hubs: Policymakers should encourage the development and optimisation of maritime clusters and technology hubs to promote cross-industry synergies, reduce shared costs, and improve competitiveness. OECD work on ocean innovation networks has shown the advantages of cross-industry platforms for joint pre-competitive innovation (OECD, 2019[22]). Optimising current practices in OECD countries would involve revisiting existing industry clusters to unlock further their potential and consider establishing new networks where gaps exist, while facilitating further exchanges among researchers from different disciplines and industry leaders. In the context of geopolitical tensions, governments must strengthen international frameworks to secure and manage technology and financial flows, ensuring access to advanced solutions.

3. Enhancing sustained ocean observations and scientific research

Effective decision-making in the ocean economy depends on robust, real-time data. Strengthening ocean observation systems is crucial to addressing data gaps that limit the capacity to monitor ocean health and inform policy.

• Expand ocean observation networks and ocean data accessibility to inform science-based policies and sustainable management practices: ocean observations provide critical data that enhance public safety, economic efficiency, and environmental stewardship (OECD, 2019[22]). By delivering public information on coastal waters and beyond, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in close coordination with private actors, informs for example decision-making for activities such as marine navigation, fisheries management, and defence, by offering insights into ocean conditions that affect operational planning and safety measures (Stevens, Jolly and Jolliffe, 2021[24]). Publicly-funded ocean observing networks contribute as well essential data that are then reused in many commercial products and services, multiplying the economic benefits from ocean observing (Rayner, Gouldman and Willis, 2019[25]; Jolliffe and Aben Athar, 2024[26]). Ocean data will increasingly feed new “ocean digital twins” to inform better decision-makers, connecting oceanographic data to biodiversity hotspots and real-time traffic (Mercator, 2025[7]). Governments should invest in sustained ocean observation systems to ensure comprehensive coverage—from seabed initial mapping to the monitoring of marine ecosystems. Joint programmes for under-observed regions such as the Southern Ocean should be as well receive more support to advance knowledge on major ocean processes (Clem et al., 2024[27]).

• Promote transformative research and technologies for the ocean: In view of the many challenges, policymakers should encourage science, technology, and innovation policies that prioritize ocean health and sustainable ocean uses (IOC-UNESCO, 2024[28]). This was reaffirmed at key international ministerial conferences, including the OECD Science and Technology Policy Ministerial Conference in April 2024, to better address major societal challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss. The OECD Agenda for Transformative Science, Technology and Innovation Policies provides a framework that would be conducive to raise the visibility of the benefits of ocean science and innovation (OECD, 2024[29]; OECD, 2024[30]).

4. Expanding the integration of developing countries in the ocean economy

With shifting demographics and evolving natural resource availability, many developing countries will stand to gain from greater participation in the ocean economy, and their experiences would benefit the broader community. Policy measures should support these countries in leveraging ocean-based activities for sustainable growth, while protecting the marine environment on which they depend.

• Adopt integrated ocean strategies: Developing countries, as most of the advanced economies before them, stand to benefit from developing long-term national ocean economy strategies that balance economic growth with ecosystem integrity (OECD, 2016[2]). Several emerging economies have already developed or are working on long-term ocean strategies. However, few low- or lower-income countries are following suit. Also, many developing countries still need to integrate monitoring frameworks to deliver on their objectives (OECD, 2025[31]).

• Lower barriers to growth: Developing countries should ideally implement as well cross-sectoral policies—including marine spatial planning, improved fisheries management, and sustainable tourism incentives—to improve policy coherence and set conducive environments for sustainable growth (OECD, 2025[13]). The aims are to reduce access barriers related to finance and technology, and to improve access to policy evidence using such tools as ocean thematic accounting frameworks (Jolliffe, Jolly and Stevens, 2021[32]). On financing, development assistance should be steered to support these frameworks as recommended in the forthcoming OECD Guidance for Development Partners (OECD, 2025[31]). In parallel, there are opportunities to build or strengthen maritime clusters and ocean innovation networks in developing regions through joint public–private initiatives and capacity-building programmes (OECD, 2019[22]).

• Foster partnerships between developing and advanced economies: Continue to foster partnerships through multilateral forums and expert exchanges, thereby facilitating the transfer of knowledge, technology, and best practices. Financing issues will remain key and the OECD Guidance for Development Partners to enable a sustainable ocean economy transition in developing countries provides advice and recommendations to ensure that the ocean-related support is well-targeted, effective, and coherent (OECD, 2025[31]).

The report The Ocean Economy to 2050 identifies both the decades-long resilience of the ocean economy and the pressing need to address its structural vulnerabilities. By strengthening governance, promoting science and technological innovation, enhancing data collection, and ensuring the inclusion of developing countries, policymakers can lay the foundations for an ocean economy that is both economically vibrant and environmentally sustainable. This coordinated approach will be critical to creating jobs, generating revenue, and ensuring long-term ocean health in an increasingly digital and interconnected world.

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