This chapter provides an analysis of the drivers of global ocean economy performance over time and uses this information to provide baseline projections into the future. Several measures of productivity in ocean economic activity groups are presented and their potential implications for the future of the ocean economy are summarised. The baseline projections form the basis from which future changes are assessed in later chapters.
The Ocean Economy to 2050
Abstract
Building on the OECD’s latest estimates of ocean economic activity in Chapter 3, this chapter explores the key economic drivers shaping the ocean economy’s past performance and examines how they can inform future projections. Historical trends suggest that real-terms gross value added in ocean economic activity groups has grown at or above average industry growth in the overall economy for much of the 25-year period measured. This chapter investigates the economic factors behind this growth, how important they are relative to each other, and what insights they offer for the future trajectory of the ocean economy.
The OECD has estimated the contributions of economic factor inputs to ocean economy growth according to guidelines commonly employed in the measurement of productivity (OECD, 2001[1]). In particular, growth in gross value added (GVA) is decomposed into contributions from: growth in the services provided by different types of fixed capital assets, growth in labour provided by workers with different levels of education, and growth in multifactor productivity. The estimated GVA production functions are then used in a model that projects future trajectories for the ocean economy to 2050 using historical trends as the basis.
One way of understanding the potential for the ocean economy in the future is to compare the ways in which ocean economic activities have converted various economic factors inputs into output in the past. GVA – the difference between gross output and intermediate consumption – is a production metric commonly used in productivity analysis. The growth of GVA produced per labour hour worked is often used for understanding potential changes in standards of living due to its link with increases in wages, salaries and other benefits in the long term. GVA per hour worked in an economic activity is also a useful metric for comparing economic performance across activities (OECD, 2024[2]).
Figure 4.1 displays OECD estimates of GVA per hour worked for each ocean economic activity group relative to a comparable measure for the average industry of the overall economy at the global level. Three of the six ocean economic activity groups – ‘maritime transport and maritime ports’, ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’, and ‘marine and maritime industry trade, transport and R&D services’ – show clear improvements in GVA per hour worked beyond that of the average overall economy industry throughout the entire period between 2000 to 2019.
While the ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture and marine fish processing group’ performed well in comparison to the overall economy since 2010, gains in GVA per hour worked dipped below those achieved in the overall economy in all years before 2010. The overall economy consistently outpaces growth in GVA per hour worked in the ‘marine and coastal tourism’ ocean economic activity group apart from a brief two-year period before 2005.
One ocean economic activity group is not included in the chart – ‘offshore wind and marine renewable energy’ – due to out of scale increases in GVA per hour worked experienced over the period. In 2000, there was no offshore wind energy production globally. By the late-2010s, the industry was adding over four gigawatts of net capacity additions annually (IEA, 2019[3]). This enormous growth in offshore wind capacity between 2000 and 2020 has led to GVA per hour worked gains that are way off the scale of Figure 4.1. As the activity group matures and capacity additions become less significant in terms of overall installed capacity, measures of GVA per hour worked in ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ are likely to become more comparable with other ocean economic activity groups.
Relative gross value added per hour worked real-terms indexes for ocean economic activity groups and the overall economy
Note: The ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ ocean economic activity group is not included in the chart due to rapid gross value added per hour worked growth that is largely an artefact of it being a nascent industry. Initial gross value added per hour worked indexes for the overall economy and each ocean economic activity group are calculated as log differences and chained together so that the year 2000 is equal to 100. The relative index is then calculated as the ratio of each ocean economic activity group chained index to the overall economy chained index and setting the overall economy chained index equal to 100.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
Single input factor productivity measures such as GVA per hour worked are useful general indicators, but they capture many of the gains in productivity that are achieved through growth in important economic inputs beyond hours worked. One approach to understanding the relative importance of these other inputs is to compare shares of income that are attributable to them.
Capital and labour input income factor shares can be proxied by estimating the distribution of GVA among the different factors of production. The OECD have estimated capital and labour shares of GVA for each ocean economic activity group (Figure 4.2). The labour share represents the portion of activity group GVA that goes to workers in the form of wages, salaries, and other benefits. A higher labour share indicates that a larger portion of activity group GVA is attributable to labour inputs. A higher capital share – assumed to be the inverse of the labour share – suggests a greater proportion of activity group GVA is attributable to machinery, buildings, and other capital inputs.
Global average input factor shares of gross value added for each ocean economic activity group
Note: Labour shares of gross value added are calculated as compensation of employees over gross value added in each ocean economic activity group in each country. Capital shares are then calculated as the inverse of the labour share in each country. The global average is then weighted by each country's contribution to global gross value added in each ocean economic activity group.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
The average estimated capital and labour factor GVA shares displayed in Figure 4.2 vary between ocean economic activity group and over time. On average between 2000 and 2019, capital represents the highest share of GVA in four of the seven ocean economic activity groups: ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture and marine fish processing’, ‘maritime transport and maritime ports’, ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’, and ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’. These ocean economic activity groups could be considered capital intensive in income terms as more units of capital services are used to generate one unit of GVA than labour. The most capital intensive on average is ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ with an average share of just over 70% of GVA.
Labour represents the highest share of income on average over the period in three of the seven ocean economic activity groups: ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’, ‘marine and maritime industry trade, transport and R&D services’, and ‘marine and coastal tourism’. The most labour intensive ocean economic activity group on average in income terms is ‘marine and maritime industry trade, transport and R&D services’ with an average share of just over 70% of GVA.
One important input category missing from GVA factor shares is the intermediate goods and services used in all production processes. For each ocean economic activity group, the OECD has also estimated factor shares of gross output – a measure of the monetary value of the goods and services produced during a year – that include intermediate inputs such as energy, materials and services in addition to capital and labour (Figure 4.3).
Global average input factor shares of gross output for each ocean economic activity group
Note: Labour shares of gross output are calculated as compensation of employees over gross output in each ocean economic activity group in each country. Capital shares of gross output are calculated as the difference between compensation of employees and gross value added over gross output in each ocean economic activity group in each country. Intermediate inputs shares of gross output are calculated as intermediate consumption over gross output in each ocean economic activity group in each country. The global average is then weighted by each country's contribution to global gross value added in each ocean economic activity group.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
The results in Figure 4.3 suggest that – with the exception of ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ and ‘marine and coastal tourism ‘– the costs of intermediate inputs are on average equivalent to over half of ocean economic activity group gross output. The highest share of intermediate inputs in gross output on average between 2000 and 2019 is around 74% and occurs in ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’. In general, with the exception of ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’, the ocean economic activity groups with the largest average shares of intermediate inputs in gross output are labour intensive in terms of their GVA input factor shares.
Figure 4.3 implies the costs of intermediate inputs dominate the value of both capital and labour inputs in ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’ with a period average gross output share of 68%. This is just below separate OECD findings in a more limited number of countries showing intermediate inputs account for roughly 70%-80% of gross output in the shipbuilding industry (Gourdon and Steidl, 2019[4]).
Breaking down the estimates further to the level of individual categories of intermediate inputs reveals that ‘maritime shipbuilding’ possesses the largest material inputs gross output share of all ocean economic activities (around 60% on average over the period). Energy input costs relative to gross output are largest – at just over 25% averaged over the period – in ‘maritime equipment manufacturing’ while energy input costs represent only 3% of gross output in ‘maritime shipbuilding’. This is suggestive of the interconnectedness of the ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’ ocean economic activity group. The ‘maritime equipment manufacturing’ activity produces the materials used in the materials intense-‘maritime shipbuilding’ activity and is relatively more energy intense as a result.
Economic growth can be achieved by increasing the efficiency with which inputs are converted to outputs in a production process and/or increasing the level of inputs to a production process. The OECD have used the GVA factor input shares outlined in the previous section to weight growth in capital and labour inputs in a decomposition of annual ocean economy GVA growth. This enables the contribution of each factor input to ocean economic growth to be understood, as well as the productivity growth that is achieved when GVA increases at a higher rate than the factor inputs combined. The latter measure of productivity captures the effects of changes in knowledge, technologies, processes, and other intangibles that improve the combined use of the other inputs to production and is known as multifactor productivity. Multifactor productivity cannot be measured directly and is calculated as the difference between GVA growth and the combined growth contributions of the other factor inputs.
Average global ocean economy gross value added annual growth rates decomposed into capital, labour and multifactor productivity growth
Note: Arithmetic means of the annual gross value added share-weighted growth rates estimated for each factor input at the level of the global ocean economy between 1995 and 2020.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
Global weighted average annual GVA growth in the ocean economy is estimated to stand at around 3.2% over the period as shown by the final column in Figure 4.4. Growth in capital inputs makes the largest contribution to GVA growth with an average of 2.7 percentage points over the period. Labour inputs’ contribution equates to roughly a third of capital inputs’ at 0.9 percentage points. The red box in column 3 of Figure 4.4 makes up the difference between the contributions of growth in capital and labour inputs and provides an estimate of average multifactor productivity for the global ocean economy. The reported value implies that the average contribution of multifactor productivity growth to GVA growth stood at around negative 0.4 percentage points. This suggests that the global ocean economy as a whole got worse at using intangible factors beyond capital and labour to efficiently convert inputs into outputs over the period.
The OECD has further decomposed the growth accounts estimated and summarised in Figure 4.4 to draw out different components of labour and capital inputs and their contribution to growth in ocean economic activity groups. In Figure 4.5, GVA growth in each ocean economic activity group is split into contributions from growth in hours worked (HOURS), growth in the capital services per hour worked derived from information and communication technologies such as computer hardware/software and telecommunications links (ICT), growth in the capital services per hour worked derived from other forms of capital such as machinery and equipment (NON-ICT), growth in the skills composition of its labour force proxied by increases in education level (LAB-COMP), and multifactor productivity (MFP). In this framework, labour productivity (i.e. the gains in GVA growth achieved in addition to increases in hours worked) is equivalent to the sum of the first four columns in Figure 4.5 (LAB-PROD).
All ocean economic activity groups experienced positive growth in hours worked apart from ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture, and marine fish processing’ (negative 0.08% on average between 1995 and 2020). Despite this, the contribution of growth in the skills composition of the labour force added 0.25 percentage points to GVA growth in the activity group suggesting that the quality of labour inputs increased over the period. The sum of the two labour contributions equals -0.17% (equivalent to aggregate labour inputs such as the value reported for the global ocean economy in Figure 4.4). This implies that enhancements in workforce quality were not sufficient to offset declines in the quantity of hours worked in ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture, and marine fish processing’. The contribution of growth in the labour composition was positive in all other ocean economic activity groups apart from ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ where it reduced GVA growth by 0.39 percentage points.
Three ocean economic activity groups have positive estimated multifactor productivity growth rates in Figure 4.5 – ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’, ‘maritime transport and maritime ports’, and ‘marine and maritime industry trade, transport and R&D services’. ‘Maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’ has a particularly high contribution from multifactor productivity growth rate of 2.2% or more than half of the activity group GVA growth rate. In other words, growth in multifactor productivity in ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’ represents a larger than equivalent share of GVA growth than labour and capital growth combined. The equivalent share is just under a third in ‘maritime transport and maritime ports’ and just under a fifth in ‘marine and maritime industry trade, transport and R&D services’.
In all ocean economic activity groups, contributions from growth in labour productivity outweigh those from growth in hours worked. Labour productivity growth is most significant in ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture, and marine fish processing’ where it contributes just over 100% of GVA growth (negative contributions from growth in hours worked and multifactor productivity make up the difference). Labour productivity growth is least significant in ‘marine and coastal tourism’ and ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ at around 65% of GVA growth a piece.
Average annual contributions to global gross value added growth from various factors for each ocean economic activity group
Note: Arithmetic means of the annual gross value added share-weighted growth rates estimated for each factor input at the level of global ocean economic activity groups between 1995 and 2020.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
The largest labour productivity contribution to an ocean economic activity group’s GVA growth stands at 25.7 percentage points and was realised in ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ where over 90% of GVA growth is attributable to growth in labour productivity. Most of this labour productivity contribution was achieved through increases in non-ICT capital services realised per hour worked (otherwise known as non-ICT capital deepening). ICT capital deepening – increases in ICT capital services per hour worked – was also particularly high in ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ with a contribution of 3.7 percentage points or roughly 15% of GVA growth. The share of GVA growth contributed by ICT-capital deepening is lower in all other ocean economic activity groups (from 2% in ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’ to 10% in ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture, and marine fish processing’).
The estimates in Figure 4.5 suggest non-ICT capital deepening outweighed ICT capital deepening in its contribution to GVA growth on average over the period in all ocean economic activity groups. The ratio of non-ICT capital deepening to ICT capital deepening in ocean economic activity groups other than ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ ranges from 12-to-1 in ‘marine fishing, marine aquaculture and marine fish processing’ to 21-to-1 in ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’. In general, digitalisation and automation enabled by ICTs can drive efficiency gains and enterprises that fail to integrate advancements in the underlying technologies may become less competitive over time (OECD, 2024[5]). An approach to productivity growth that better balances the ICT and non-ICT capital services available to workers may therefore be desirable in certain ocean economic activity groups.
The estimated contributions of growth in hours worked and each component of growth in labour productivity presented in the previous section have been used to project a baseline trajectory of the ocean economy through to 2050.
Initially, individual production functions similar to those presented in Figure 4.4 are estimated on an annual basis for all ocean economic activities in all coastal countries. Future labour productivity growth is modelled on the basis of the trends suggested by these detailed production functions and a gradual convergence towards OECD projections of trend labour productivity (Guillemette and Château, 2023[6]). Growth in hours worked is modelled similarly except that individual country growth in hours worked in each ocean economic activity is assumed to converge towards the United Nations’ 2024 median projection of country working age population growth (15-64 years) (United Nations, 2024[7]). Future GVA growth is calculated as the sum of the combinations from each component in all future years. The GVA growth results are then used to calculate the level of future GVA in each ocean economic activity in all countries in current prices and in real terms and aggregated to form global and regional estimates.
The baseline projection presented here is based on historical trends and is designed to provide a reasonable starting point from which potential future changes can be assessed. However, economies evolve according to regulatory and technology changes, environmental factors, consumer behaviour shifts and many other influences. Past trends can only go so far in helping to understand the future of the ocean economy. The next chapter – Chapter 5 – details powerful changes in broader forces that shape ocean economy production and productivity and are expected to affect ocean economic growth in the coming decades. Chapter 6 then explores two possible scenarios based on these shaping forces.
The baseline projection for the ocean economy based on historical trends suggests all ocean economic activity groups are set to grow in real terms from 2020 until the end of the period in 2050. Figure 4.6 displays chained volume indexes for each ocean economic activity group globally as well as the global ocean economy estimated through the procedure summarised above. The darkest line in each panel represents a chained volume index of GVA growth calculated by summing the baseline projections of growth in hours worked and growth in labour productivity in each ocean economic activity in each country.
Historical and projected global ocean economic activity group gross value added chained volume indexes
Note: Gross value added chained volume indexes created from mean projected hours worked growth and mean projected labour productivity growth given by dark line. Projection intervals calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 80% confidence intervals in hours worked growth and labour productivity growth given by shaded area.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
The baseline projection reaches above three by 2050 (i.e. a tripling of real GVA since 1995) in all ocean economic activity groups apart from ‘marine and coastal tourism’ which hits 2.98 in 2050. The highest level in chained volume terms is reached by ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ which grows exponentially at times to reach a level 3 365 times larger in real terms in the baseline projection than it was in 2000 when the first commercial projects began. Otherwise, the highest volume level is achieved by ‘offshore oil and gas and offshore industry’ which overcomes a period of stagnant growth in the mid-2010s to a baseline projection high of 4.85 in 2050.
The chained volume indexes in Figure 4.6 can be used as the basis for estimating gross value added in real terms. It is assumed that prices in each ocean economic activity group in each country grow at their average rate between 1995 and 2020 in all future years. This allows the annual growth rates projected by the model in volume terms to first be converted to current price and previous year price estimates in future years and subsequently into chained volume measures in monetary terms (with a reference year of 2015).
Figure 4.7 provides the historical and future aggregates of all ocean economic activities globally in real terms. The baseline projection suggests that global ocean economy GVA could grow from around USD 2.6 trillion in 2020 to USD 3.4 trillion then to USD 4.1 trillion in 2040 and finally USD 5.1 trillion in 2050 if historical trends were to continue. This represents roughly a doubling of global ocean economy GVA between 2020 and 2050. Figure 4.7 displays real terms projections along with an indicator of 80 and 95 per cent projection intervals. The projection intervals are calculated from the hours worked and labour productivity models. This suggests the global ocean economy has an 80% chance of being worth between USD 3.8 and 7.1 trillion – and a 95% chance of being between USD 3.3 trillion and USD 9.8 trillion – should previously held trends in hours and labour productivity growth continue in each ocean economic activity.
The real terms growth in aggregate global ocean economy GVA in Figure 4.7 is driven by growth in individual ocean economic activities. Figure 4.8 displays shares of the total ocean economy in each global region attributable to each ocean economic activity group historically and projected into the future.
Historical and projected global ocean economy gross value added in chained volume measures
Note: Chained volumes measures estimated from mean projected hours worked growth and mean projected labour productivity growth and converted to US dollars by referencing the value in 2015. Projection intervals calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 80% and 95% confidence intervals in hours worked growth and labour productivity growth given by line on each bar.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
Historical and projected regional ocean economic activity group current price gross value added as a share of total regional ocean economy gross value added
Note: Historical and projected ocean economic activity group shares of regional ocean economy gross value added in current price US dollars.
Source: OECD Ocean Economy Monitor, January 2025.
‘Marine and coastal tourism’ remains the largest ocean economic activity group as a share of regional ocean economies in ‘Eastern Asia’ (Panel A in Figure 4.8), ‘Europe’ (Panel B), and ‘Northern America’ (Panel E). By far the largest region in terms of the importance of ‘marine and coastal tourism’ is ‘Northern America’ where its share of the regional ocean economy grows from 50% in 2020 to 56% in 2050. The other significant ‘Northern American’ ocean economic activity groups are ‘maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing’ (19% in 2020 falling to 15% by 2050) and ‘maritime transport and maritime ports’ (14% in 2020 falling to 10% by 2050).
In ‘Eastern Asia’, ‘marine and coastal’ tourism makes up at least 50% of the total ocean economy for the entire projection period hitting a peak of 58% in 2030 before gradually declining to 52% in 2050. In ‘Europe’, the activity group is largest in terms of the share of the regional ocean economy in 2019 at 52% (48% in 2020). ‘Marine and coastal tourism’ then begins to lose share to ‘offshore oil and gas and offshore industry’ around 2025 which at that point has a share of 22%. By 2050, ‘marine and coastal tourism’ represents 48% of the European ocean economy and ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ has increased its share to 39%.
Otherwise, in all other regions, GVA in ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ dominates the ocean economy. This is particularly pronounced in ‘Northern Africa and Western Asia’ (Panel D in Figure 4.8) where the activity group never drops below 73% of the ocean economy (1998) and hits a peak of 91% in 2050. ‘Offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ also reaches around 90% in 2050 in ‘Sub-Saharan Africa’ (Panel H) having grown from just under 50% in 2020. ‘Marine and coastal tourism’ in ‘Sub-Saharan Africa’ begins the projection period at 33% of the regional ocean economy before being squeezed through to 2050 by expansion in ‘offshore oil and gas and offshore industry’ when it makes up just 1% of the ocean economy.
In ‘Southern Asia and Central Asia’ (Panel F in Figure 4.8), the share of ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ GVA in the regional ocean economy grows from 52% in 2020 to 56% in 2030 and remains at roughly that level until 2050. The share held by ‘marine and coastal tourism’ in the region falls slightly from 32% in 2020 to 30% in 2030 where it remains for the rest of the projection period. ‘Marine and coastal tourism’ and ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ therefore grow in line with each other in the region from 2030 onwards.
Despite experiencing enormous growth in some countries from the turn of the millennium until the end of the historical period in 2020, ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ does not grow to a considerable size in the baseline projection. The activity group’s largest gain in terms of the share of regional ocean economy GVA was in ‘Eastern Asia’ as shown by the increase in size of the dark green bars towards the end of projection period in Panel A in Figure 4.8. Otherwise, ‘offshore wind and marine renewables’ have no major effect on the size of the ocean economy in any other region.
Growth in ocean economic activity groups often surpassed that of the average industry in the overall economy between 1995 and 2020 (Chapter 3). This Chapter 4 has examined the trends in productivity across various economic factor inputs that helped shape this performance.
Simple measures of productivity indicate that most ocean economic activity groups performed well compared with the average industry in the overall economy between 1995 and 2020. A straightforward measure – growth in gross value added (GVA) per hour worked—indicates that productivity gains relative to the average industry were most notable in ‘offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry’ and ‘maritime transport and maritime ports’.
More detailed productivity measures suggest that more than half of the ocean economic activity groups experienced a decline in multifactor productivity over the period. The contribution of various input factors – ICT capital services, non-ICT capital services, and the education composition of the labour force – to GVA growth and how effectively these inputs are combined through multifactor productivity are estimated. The results suggest that most of the ocean economic activity groups are not leveraging more intangible advancements and improvements in processes that lead to more efficient uses of economic inputs.
Detailed decompositions of the types of capital services that contribute towards GVA growth point towards a lack of readiness for an increasingly digital and automated future. Growth in GVA is primarily driven by capital investments unrelated to information and communication technologies in all ocean economic activity groups. Low contributions to GVA growth from ICT capital services per hour worked in all ocean economic activity groups point towards missed potential GVA growth and raise concerns about the global ocean economy’s preparedness for a digital and automated future
Should historical trends persist, real-terms GVA in most ocean economic activity groups could triple between 2020 and 2050. However, there is little reason to believe they will. The productivity analysis developed in this chapter serves as the foundation for a baseline projection of the future ocean economy through to 2050. However, the future of the ocean economy will of course be shaped by evolving technologies, policy changes, and shifting economic and environmental conditions outlined in Chapters 5 and 6.
The baseline projection using historical trends is used as the basis from which potential future changes are assessed in the remaining chapters. The following chapters dive into these issues by presenting major global shaping forces and their potential effects on the ocean economy’s future trajectory.
References
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