Pandemics are rare but severe shocks for the health of populations and economies. The frequency and intensity of smaller outbreaks have been increasing over the past decades and the risk of local outbreaks escalating into global pandemics remains high. This report examines the potential consequences of future pandemics on population health, health system resilience and the economy across 51 OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries, using advanced epidemiological and economic modelling techniques and scenario-based analyses. It assesses the extent to which eight non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for community infection prevention and control can mitigate health and economic consequences in the early phases of five types of outbreak scenarios before pharmaceutical interventions or vaccines are available at scale.
The central message is clear: in the OECD, investing, on average, almost 6 USD PPP per capita per year in pandemic preparedness and response is a smart investment for both public health and economic resilience. Early implementation of NPIs such as hand hygiene, mask use and physical distancing can save more lives and limit economic disruption than delayed action, which may necessitate the introduction of lockdowns to regain control of transmission. Robust disease surveillance and stockpiling systems are essential for enabling timely and effective response.
