Planning ahead for the next pandemic

Pandemics are rare, but can have substantial consequences for population health, health system resilience and economies. Rapid urbanisation, deforestation, intensive farming, extensive and often unregulated wildlife trade and rising demand for air travel all increase the risk that a local outbreak escalates into a global pandemic. This policy brief examines the potential impacts of future pandemics through scenario-based analyses across 51 OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries, using advanced epidemiological and economic modelling techniques. It assesses the effectiveness of eight non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the early stages of five outbreak scenarios, including Ebola, avian influenza, influenza A, coronavirus and measles-like pandemics, before vaccines or pharmaceutical interventions become widely available. It shows that early scale-up of NPIs such as hand hygiene, mask use and physical distancing save more lives and cause less economic disruption than delayed action, which may leave lockdowns as the only way to regain control of transmission. Robust surveillance and stockpiling systems make timely response possible. Across the OECD, investing nearly USD 6 PPP per capita per year in pandemic preparedness and response pays off in both public health and economic resilience.