What is the outlook for official development assistance (ODA) in the near term? Net ODA fell by 23.3% in 2025, its largest drop ever, following an 8.5% reduction in 2024, and is projected to decrease by a further 6.9% in 2026. This marks the second time on record that ODA fell for three consecutive years, after the 1992-1995 period. These cuts are expected to disproportionately affect the poorest countries. Following steep drops in 2025 (preliminary data), bilateral aid to least developed countries and sub-Saharan Africa is projected to fall by a further 10.9% and 11.6%, respectively, in 2026. Financing for health is likewise expected to decline, falling as much as 63% below its 2022 peak. Amidst geopolitical tensions, with aid budgets under sustained pressure, coordinated and strategic action will be critical to safeguard development gains, support the most vulnerable populations and ensure limited resources are used where they are most needed.
ODA projections for 2026 and the near‑term
Implications for vulnerable countries and sectors
