Modelling trade policy scenarios

COVID-19 has drawn renewed attention to the economic importance of cross border mobility. Frictions in cross border mobility of labour can substantially impact the economy and international trade, by causing a long-term decrease in net migration that would alter the labour supply in many economies. To capture these macro-economic and trade effects, a global macroeconomic model (NiGEM) and a general equilibrium trade model (METRO) were used to simulate a stylised scenario equivalent to a 20% reduction in net-migration accumulated over the past ten years for all economies and regions. In OECD countries, this would translate into a reduction of the overall labour supply, and this shock would shift some economic activity towards non-OECD countries. At the sectoral level, exports of labour intensive manufacturing activities in OECD countries would contract, with electronics (13% of the total reduction of exports in the long term), automobiles (12%) and pharmaceuticals (9%) among the most affected.