This study provides an economic and econometric analysis of agriculture in the economic cycle, with special reference to the recent experience of Brazil. Part One of the paper discusses the economic theory and points to the relevance of classical texts for analysis of agriculture's role in the economic crisis facing developing countries. Part Two of the paper tests the hypothesis that agriculture exercises a stabilising role in the economic cycle using statistical and econometric procedures. It offers a novel application of tests of cointegration and stationarity and concludes on this basis that agriculture does indeed exercise a stabilising role in the economic cycle.

The study was concluded under the Development Centre's programme "Developing Country Agriculture and International Economic Trends", directed by Ian Goldin ...