The OECD has been using economic models and quantitative assessments since the late 1980s to inform policy makers of the costs, benefits and potential tradeoffs of environmental policies and climate change mitigation scenarios. The main environment-economy modelling work of the OECD rests upon the in-house models ENV-Linkages, a dynamic general equilibrium model and ENV-Growth, a macroeconomic growth model based on a conditional convergence framework. This modelling work is aimed to assist governments in understanding the costs of environmental inaction as well as the benefits of policy action for key environmental issues, including climate change, air pollution, resource use and the transition to a more circular economy.
Analysis of the long-term environmental consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and response measures
The tools of the modelling team have been used to assess how the pandemic and response measures affect economic activity and how changes in sectoral and regional economic activity affect environmental pressures. The analysis highlights that the short-term effects are substantially larger than the long-run ones, but there is a long-term effect of 1-3% below pre-Covid baseline projections that may persist.
global material resources outlook to 2060
This report presents global projections of materials use and their environmental consequences, providing a quantitative outlook to 2060 at the global, sectoral and regional levels for 61 different materials (biomass resources, fossil fuels, metals and non-metallic minerals). It explains the economic drivers determining the decoupling of economic growth and materials use, and assesses how the projected shifts in sectoral and regional economic activity influence the use of different materials. The projections include both primary and secondary materials, which provides a deeper understanding of what drives the synergies and trade-offs between extraction and recycling. The report projects a doubling of global primary materials use between today and 2060. Population and converging per capita income growth drive the growth in materials use. However, structural change, especially in non-OECD countries, and technology improvements partially dampen that growth.
key areas of our work