Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia

Nine of the 13 ASEAN Plus Three countries have adopted national action plans on plastic pollution or waste management, with the remaining four in discussion. However, the scope and effectiveness of policies remain uneven across the region. 

In turn, plastic pollution continues to grow. In 2022, 29% of the region’s plastic waste was mismanaged, with greater shares in ASEAN lower middle-income countries (70%). Informal and unsafe practices, such as open burning and dumping, persist in China and most ASEAN Member States.   

Driven by rising incomes and living standards, plastics use in the region is projected to almost double in the absence of more ambitious policies, with ASEAN Member States expected to see a near tripling. In turn, plastic waste is projected to more than double, while plastic leakage to the environment is projected to increase by 68%, primarily originating from ASEAN lower middle-income countries and China.

While tackling plastic pollution is a global challenge, ASEAN Plus Three countries can reap significant benefits from regional action. Relative to business as usual, ambitious action by ASEAN Plus Three countries across the plastic lifecycle can reduce plastics use by 28%, plastic waste by 23% and plastic leakage to the environment by more than 95% in the region. The largest reductions in plastic leakage are projected for China and ASEAN lower middle-income countries.           

The macroeconomic costs of ambitious policy action are projected to be modest for the region (0.8% GDP loss relative to business as usual in 2050). However, ASEAN Member States will shoulder greater costs as a share of GDP compared to Japan, Korea and China collectively (2.4% versus 0.3% GDP loss). ASEAN lower middle-income countries, including Indonesia, will bear the largest burden (2.8% GDP loss).