Preparing for Demographic Change in Campania, Italy

Executive Summary

Preparing for demographic change

The Campania region is a key economic engine for the South of Italy, accounting for nearly half of the EUR 247 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) produced by the 8 southern regions. The region boasts quality tertiary educational institutions, a rich and diverse environmental landscape, historical demographic advantages (i.e., high shares of young people and high fertility rates), and a vibrant cultural heritage that continues to draw students and tourists from around the world.

Despite these strengths, the region experiences consistent youth outmigration and projections of population decline and ageing in the coming decades. In 2022, the number of young people (ages 15-29) dropped slightly in Campania while it increased in both Italy and the EU27, in line with a long-running trend: between 2008 and 2020, Campania experienced a net loss of between 7 000 to 10 000 young people per year to other regions in Italy. Campania’s historical advantages in demography appear to be converging towards national averages, including a rising old-age dependency ratio (i.e., the share of adults aged 65 and older per 100 inhabitants), a declining fertility rate, and accelerating population loss overall. As a result, the European Commission considers Campania to be at risk of falling into a “talent development trap”. The region also exhibits notable internal imbalances across economic, social, and infrastructural dimensions between its more affluent urban and coastal area and poorer rural and inland towns, with many smaller municipalities among the latter group lacking the technical or staff capacity necessary to address demographic challenges. Demographic change in Campania represents an opportunity to rethink land use, service delivery and infrastructure to better integrate urban and rural communities, helping to ensure that residents throughout the region can benefit from its economic and cultural advantages.

Campania has already taken important actions to address challenges associated with demographic change to attract and retain young talent, including by mobilising European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and European Social Fund Plus (ESF+) funding. Additional targeted policies and refinement of approaches in place could enhance efforts to adapt the region to its demographic reality.

Adapting land use and spatial planning

Efficient land use and spatial planning practices are essential for Campania to respond to demographic decline, manage abandoned or vacant housing, and preserve environmental resources. Despite significant recent reforms under Law 5/2024 and investments in urban regeneration and territorial strategies, many local plans remain outdated and do not reflect population trends, leading to low-density sprawl even as many areas lose residents. For instance, between 2010 and 2021, built-up area increased by as much as 30% in many small municipalities that lost up to 20% of their population. High vacancy rates (24.7% region-wide), speculative housing markets, and fragmented planning across small municipalities exacerbate inefficiencies, driving up service costs and weakening regional attractiveness. While tourism and Cohesion Policy investments are providing opportunities for regeneration, housing pressures and poor-quality housing stocks risk deterring young people from settling in the region. Inter-municipal co-ordination remains limited due in large part to local capacity and incentive barriers. To address these challenges, the report provides detailed recommendations in four areas:

• Update and streamline spatial planning tools to align with demographic realities;

• Promote regeneration and densification to enhance sustainability and public service efficiency;

• Match housing supply with demand to alleviate housing pressures and retain young people; and

• Strengthen inter-municipal planning to optimise resource allocation across shrinking municipalities.

Adapting multi-level governance frameworks and subnational finances

While still Italy’s youngest region, Campania is rapidly ageing due to youth outmigration and low fertility, with provinces like Avellino projected to face severe demographic pressures. These challenges coincide with socio-economic disparities, requiring a cross-sectoral and cross-territorial approach. Yet the existing policy initiatives to address demographic change have faced challenges in strategic co-ordination. For example, EU-funded programmes have been packaged into small project sizes, which can fragment programmes and limit their effectiveness in addressing demographic challenges. Moreover, demographic pressures are expected to drive up healthcare costs and erode revenues – which could lead to worsening the fiscal balance by 3.5% points of regional GDP by 2050. Moreover, fragmented local governance, with many small municipalities and limited inter-municipal cooperation, can undermine service delivery and cost-effectiveness, particularly in rural areas, highlighting the need for more coordinated and scalable solutions. To address these challenges, the report provides detailed recommendations in four areas:

• Establish explicit strategies to co-ordinate regional policy initiatives on demographic change;

• Strengthen subnational fiscal capacity to respond to demographic pressures;

• Encourage higher labour force participation and increased digitalisation for greater economic output and tax revenue; and

• Enhance public service efficiency through strengthening the role of metropolitan cities and promoting inter-municipal co-operation and municipal mergers.

Adapting service provision

Campania will need to strengthen accessibility to transport, healthcare, and education services while making better use of its existing resources. Public transport outside the Naples metropolitan area remains limited, constraining access to quality jobs and essential services, particularly in rural and mountainous areas. While the region has invested in roads and recently distributed electric buses to small municipalities, gaps in service delivery persist. In healthcare, an ageing population is expected to lead to increased demand and costs, with current shortages of medical professionals already straining capacity. Preventive and digital health interventions are underway, but their reach and impact remain uneven. Campania will also need to enhance the region’s digital infrastructure to close divides in rural areas and support remote service provision. Campania’s education sector faces declining numbers of school-age children, unmet demand for early childhood education, and persistent inequalities in access to digital tools. To address these challenges, the report provides detailed recommendations in three areas:

• Leverage existing resources to expand access to services through improved transport, digital infrastructure, and community-based initiatives;

• Adapt healthcare provision to meet the needs of an ageing population, strengthen preventive care, and expand telemedicine; and

• Optimise education resources by consolidating networks, diversifying learning models, and expanding early childhood education.