This chapter explores the future of triangular co-operation within the rapidly evolving geopolitical context. Using foresight methodologies, it suggests how development co-operation actors and partners can best prepare for these potential futures and proposes strategies to adapt to four scenarios so that triangular co-operation can continue to contribute effectively to achieving sustainable development.
Global Perspectives on Triangular Co‑operation 2025
Abstract
Triangular co-operation is based on the principle that each country has something to learn, and each has something to offer and share. While there is no globally shared and agreed definition of triangular or trilateral co-operation,1 a common understanding has evolved over time. Initially it was approached as supporting South-South co-operation by involving a Northern partner or international organisation. A broader understanding has since emerged that aligns with the move towards more collaborative and circular ways of working while respecting existing commitments and responsibilities. The mix of actors involved in triangular partnerships may take a variety of forms. In any case, triangular co-operation is understood as co-operation to address a development challenge by involving three or more partners that take on three different roles and encouraging the flow of knowledge between and among them.
The Global Partnership Initiative (GPI) on Effective Triangular Co-operation (2019[1]) describes triangular co-operation as a collaborative model of co-operation that involves three dynamic roles:
beneficiary – requesting support to tackle a specific development challenge
pivotal – sharing relevant domestic experience in addressing the challenge as well as financial resources, knowledge and expertise
facilitator – connecting and supporting the partners financially and with technical expertise.
As illustrated in Figure 1.1, potential partners can include governments at national and subnational level as well as international and regional organisations, international financial institutions, development banks, civil society organisations, private philanthropy, the private sector, and academia. All three partners often take up the roles at the same time or change their roles throughout the lifespan of a triangular co-operation project, enabling genuinely horizontal partnerships.
Source: OECD (2022[2]), Triangular Co-operation with Africa, https://triangular-cooperation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/OECD_Triangular-co-operation-with-Africa.pdf.
Triangular co-operation cannot be seen in isolation. It is embedded in the broader context of geopolitical changes, global challenges and development co-operation. When thinking about the future of triangular co-operation, it is important to consider how the modality has evolved over time and in which geopolitical context. This evolution can be divided into roughly four phases: first, starting with the 1955 Bandung Conference, where newly independent African and Asian states gathered to discuss South-South co-operation based on solidarity and post-colonial development; second, expanding triangular co-operation after the end of the Cold War; third, consolidating triangular co-operation with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; and fourth, continuing into the 2020s with Brazil’s G20 Presidency featuring triangular co-operation as one of the priorities of the G20 Development Working Group and with the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) in 2025. Table 1.1 elaborates the four phases in greater detail.
Note: HIPC = highly indebted poor countries. G8 = Group of Eight. UNOSSC = United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation. UNDP = United Nations Development Programme. UNDESA = United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. G20 = Group of Twenty. BAPA+40 = the Second United Nations High-level Conference on South-South Cooperation.
Source: Authors’ own compilation; Islamic Development Bank (2019[3]), https://www.isdb.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/2019-03/RL%20Policy.pdf.
In today’s global context, any country can share its experiences through triangular co-operation regardless of the region it is in or its income level. Circularity of learning – meaning that all partners learn and that this learning is absorbed by all institutions involved – cannot be easily planned for in project documents. Therefore, if triangular co-operation is to achieve its potential to foster mutual learning and horizontal partnerships, actors will need to change their mindset to become better listeners and sharers, to foster innovation, and to leverage local knowledge and expertise.
The global development co-operation landscape is undergoing a period of profound and accelerating transformation, driven by shifting geopolitical dynamics, evolving financing ecosystems and mounting systemic pressures. The first edition of this report published in 2023 introduced foresight methodologies as a tool to explore potential opportunities and challenges for triangular co-operation in four very different future scenarios: a new sustainable world, a fragmented world, a conflicted world and an unsustainable growth world (OECD/IsDB, 2023[4]). Several of the signals and trends anticipated across the four scenarios have not only materialised but intensified, pointing to a deepening of systemic shifts. These include growing geopolitical fragmentation; the weakening of multilateral norms; the rise of regional blocs as dominant actors; the accelerating pace and impact of climate-related risks, vulnerabilities and impacts; and a marked shift in development co-operation towards more nationally driven agendas. Triangular co-operation seems to be gaining increased political traction as a strategic modality to bridge diverse actors, facilitate technical exchange and reinforce collaborative approaches to development.
Foresight methodologies offer a structured and analytical approach to exploring a range of logical and plausible futures (Box 1.1). Recognising this, the OECD launched a dedicated foresight process to strategically explore and harness the future potential of triangular co-operation, building on previous work for the first edition of this report. This process was initiated at the 8th International Meeting on Triangular Co-operation in Lisbon (7-8 October 2024) and advanced through a series of virtual foresight workshops held in February and March 2025.2
By systematically integrating critical uncertainties, foresight methods support more robust decision making and strategic planning under conditions of complexity and change. Through the early identification of emerging trends, potential disruptions and transformative drivers of change, foresight enables decision makers to anticipate and prepare for future challenges and opportunities before these fully materialise. Traditional planning approaches typically depend on linear extrapolations of historical trends, assuming continuity and stability over time. In contrast, foresight methodologies explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty and complexity by systematically exploring multiple, divergent, yet internally consistent and logically plausible future pathways. This allows for the structured integration of uncertainty into strategic analysis, enhancing the robustness and adaptability of policy and planning processes (OECD, 2025[5]).
The OECD Strategic Foresight Unit’s methodology offers five modules (Figure 1.2) for a structured exploration of the future:
Identify assumptions about the future of triangular co-operation and critically examine how these might be challenged by emerging disruptions.
Explore possible implications of different disruptions to create scenarios for the future.
Construct a set of reference scenarios, each representing a distinct and plausible alternative future for triangular co-operation beyond 2030 based on different interactions of disruptions.
Derive scenario-specific strategic considerations to inform the roles, partnerships and decision-making frameworks of partners in triangular co-operation should any given scenario unfold.
Formulate actionable steps and strategies that stakeholders in triangular co-operation can implement today to enhance resilience and readiness under each alternative future.
Source: OECD (2025[5]), Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy: A Comprehensive Foresight Methodology to Support Sustainable and Future-Ready Public Policy, https://doi.org/10.1787/bcdd9304-en.
Following the approach summarised in Box 1.1, four fictional yet plausible future scenarios were developed based on emerging trends and uncertainties identified in the foresight exercises: rise of regions, nations first, corporate dominion and sustainability leads. Structured discussions around these scenarios pointed to strategic considerations to increase preparedness and adaptability across multiple potential futures. The disruptions are meant to lie outside the comfort zone and move beyond extrapolating from current trends, considering how to address radical changes in global systems (OECD, 2025[5]). Therefore, these scenarios are not forecasts; they are tools to explore possibilities, not predict them. They aim to trigger strategic thinking about the future of triangular co-operation and are not the future that the authors envision or desire.3
1.2.1. Exploring disruptions and identifying key assumptions about the future of triangular co-operation
As this report was being prepared, the development co-operation ecosystem experienced strong disruptions and a remarkably rapid intensification and shift of both signals and trends. Some of the weak signals that were identified through horizon scanning exercises have become realities. Some trends have withered away. In the October 2024 foresight exercise, participants identified a growing acknowledgement of diverse worldviews as critical to shaping plural and sustainable development futures. By mid-2025, however, the foresight dialogue had shifted, with participants more rapidly highlighting constrained development budgets, the development co-operation system in flux, the reorientation of finance towards narrowly defined national interests and the erosion of trust as strong signals of systemic change with potentially disruptive implications for the future of international co-operation.
One of the trends is the emphasis on the dynamics of a multipolar world order, marked by the rising influence of the Global South and a gradual rebalancing of global power from West to East. Other trends include converging pressures, such as growing strain on natural resources; escalating climate-related shocks; and the rapid acceleration of transformative technologies such as AI, big data and digitalisation, which are anticipated to fundamentally reshape the priorities, actors and delivery modalities of development co-operation in the years ahead. All these trends are already affecting the development co-operation community, and their implications are changing rapidly.
Another emerging trend, or strong signal of change, is the perception that traditional multilateral institutions are losing ground amid growing criticism from the Group of 77 (G77) and China that developing countries’ interests are not sufficiently represented and that the institutions’ decision-making lacks balance as development budgets continue to shrink. The strategic relevance of actors such as the private sector, regional alliances and groups of countries in driving sustainability and innovation is growing, as are hybrid finance models.
The authors have included the mapping of the signals and trends derived from the foresight exercise in Annex A as evidence of the need to regularly assess the process, follow trajectories of trends and signals, and also assess the preparedness of the systems to adapt and respond in an agile way. These are organised into six thematic clusters based on the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy as a guiding framework: geopolitics, development co-operation modalities, economy and financing, technology, governance, and environment and social. These six dimensions are also used to structure possible actions for the future of triangular co-operation in each of the scenarios.
The aforementioned signals of change, emerging trends and critical uncertainties are used to derive four fictional but plausible scenarios. These scenario narratives provide a structured basis for stress-testing current assumptions and formulating adaptive action plans tailored to a range of possible futures. The possible scenarios are not mutually exclusive, and some trends and factors might be present in more than one scenario but with different shapes, intensities and paths. This section reviews the key features of each of the four scenarios, summarised in Table 1.1. For each scenario, it also discusses proposals that the triangular co-operation community could consider in the future. These scenarios are presented not as desirable possibilities or options for the future; rather, they can stimulate further reflection and debate on a range of different possible futures, including good and worst cases.
Source: Authors’ own compilation.
Scenario 1: Rise of the regions: Power blocs fuel a new era for triangular co-operation
In the 2023 edition of this report, the fragmented world scenario described growing competition between nations and regions alongside the weakening of the rules-based multilateral system. This edition elaborates that trajectory, envisioning a future where multilateralism continues to erode and regional and subregional blocs, groupings and organisations become the primary arenas for negotiation and co-operation.
As global institutions struggle to reach consensus, regional initiatives step in to fill the gap. In some cases, they complement global efforts; in others, they replace them entirely. The shift is most pronounced in regions with strong institutional depth and political cohesion. Yet even these integrated regions remain internally diverse, with differing priorities that can produce competing regional governance systems and fragmented standards established at the regional rather than global level.
In this multipolar world, the focus shifts from universal solutions to regional collaboration and localised development agendas. National and regional actors assume a greater share of responsibility, tailoring initiatives to their own contexts. In light of the vulnerabilities and risks exposed by geopolitical changes, the new norm is diversifying funding sources across multiple regions. This approach reduces reliance on a single partner, counters power imbalances, and fosters a more resilient and adaptable development framework.
The vacuum left by weakened multilateralism fuels the rise of plurilateral and minilateral groupings such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) including its expanded membership, the G20, and MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Türkiye, Australia). These coalitions, often spanning more than one region, emerge as influential spaces for policy co-ordination and serve as bridges for interregional exchange.
In this scenario, triangular co-operation becomes a frequently used modality inside regional blocs. Over time, curiosity and mutual interest drive countries to extend these partnerships across regions, using triangular arrangements to facilitate knowledge sharing and technical diplomacy (OECD/IsDB, 2023[4]). In an era of competing blocs and geopolitical uncertainty, countries seek to maintain regional ties while at the same time diversifying their partnerships and funding sources across regions. Triangular co-operation helps maintain channels of exchange at the technical level, bridging regions, aligning with local priorities and building new alliances. In doing so, it not only supports regional development strategies but also makes development strategies more resilient and mitigates the risks of fragmentation, keeping collaboration alive in turbulent times.
Potential actions for triangular co-operation
Geopolitics. Regional organisations, platforms and hubs will play a crucial role in strengthening capacities for partnership formation and facilitating triangular co-operation within regions. New opportunities arise by focusing primarily on finding resources – i.e. expertise, knowledge, technology and funding – at the regional level. Development practitioners will need to sharpen cultural skills to partner better with regions and international organisations; matchmaking platforms and initiatives to map resource centres could act as intermediaries between global institutions, regional blocs and individual countries. These regional actors could act as enablers to support learning, scalability and preparedness for future triangular co-operation, while also recognising the inherent differences between countries in the same geographic region.
Building trust among partners across different regional blocs also will be crucial to deepening exchanges beyond regions. Small triangular initiatives to build trust between countries within the same region and between different regions are a useful starting point to allow partners to get to know each other on a technical level. Once the partnership is solid and mutual trust is established, it could be scaled up to include additional partners, countries, regions and/or financing. In this scenario, institutions with cross-regional membership can act as bridge-builders by deploying catalytic capital and technical support across blocs to enable interregional triangular partnerships. The ability of such institutions to convene diverse actors, de-risk investments and embed solutions in public systems positions them as key enablers of interregional co-operation infrastructure.
Development co-operation modalities. Development co-operation agencies and multilateral organisations and banks could strengthen their regional offices, making them hubs and platforms for exchange. Polycentric collaboration frameworks might become the new normal for triangular co-operation, addressing power asymmetries in development co-operation in constructive ways and ensuring circular exchange among all triangular partners. These frameworks could also ensure that more time and effort are devoted to forging new partnerships. For triangular partnerships to be embedded in the overall co-operation context of a country and region, they can be linked to regional and local development co-operation programmes and institutions.
Economy and financing. The role of regional and South-South development banks in triangular co-operation as co-investors and partners for local and regional financial institutions could be strengthened in this scenario to provide alternative funding sources. Triangular co-operation, particularly through regional and Islamic finance institutions, can offer trusted platforms in politically sensitive contexts where neutrality and technical diplomacy are critical. Leveraging trust capital and shared development narratives becomes a strategic asset in re-fragmented global governance settings.
Technology. Innovation incubators and hubs for co-developing technical solutions with regional experts could be established through triangular partnerships and brought to scale, including through regional centres of excellence and cross-regional exchange, after successful pilot projects. Regional organisations could play a key role in regulating digital governance and technical standards, which are increasingly being established at the regional level. These could also offer standardised technology diplomacy curricula and train partners in digital diplomacy and technical negotiation skills. In this and other possible futures, the benefits of using AI throughout the whole triangular co-operation project cycle can be enormous.
Governance. Balancing locally led development and regional initiatives, pilot projects that evolve based on community feedback could be tested and locally defined monitoring and evaluation frameworks created at the local level. Regional knowledge-sharing networks could take up the results of these and other local initiatives and share them within and between regions. In interregional triangular partnerships, peer review systems with rotating evaluation responsibilities to monitor success and results for all partners could be introduced and reinforced.
In addition, creating hybrid governance models that blend formal institutions with agile network-based partnerships to adapt to shifting geopolitical dynamics could facilitate structured dialogue, even when one partner withdraws due to geopolitical changes.
Environment and social. Triangular co-operation can help share valuable experiences in climate change adaptation and mitigation, protection of biodiversity, and environmental sustainability at the regional level. To date, green triangular co-operation and exchange initiatives among small island developing states (SIDS) from different regions are delivering promising results (OECD, 2024[6]). In this scenario, alongside the increase in local and regional co-operation, consolidated lessons in socio-environmental triangular co-operation could be shared through local and regional hubs. Furthermore, carbon offset-linked co-operation could be promoted as an element for new triangular partnerships.
Scenario 2: Nations first: The erosion of multilateralism puts triangular co-operation at risk
In the previous edition of this report, the conflicted world scenario showed development co-operation being instrumentalised for national security, with the result that engagement in triangular co-operation stalled. The nations first scenario in this edition takes that trajectory further: Multilateralism weakens as countries place self-interest above collective action.
Rising geopolitical tensions and increased defence spending push development co-operation lower on countries’ priority lists. Shrinking budgets and domestic pressures in turn drive providers to consolidate scarce official development assistance (ODA) and development finance around projects that serve their own national agendas, often at the expense of partner country priorities. Growing criticism from the Global South over of the domination of the Global North in international organisations accelerates the creation of alternative institutions, further eroding the authority of traditional multilateral bodies.
In this environment, smaller or more experimental initiatives lose funding, while large-scale projects with lower transaction costs are favoured. Countries requiring strong, sustained support to achieve equality and sustainability risk being left behind. At the same time, calls to decolonise development gain momentum, reshaping power dynamics and opening new – but often fragmented – spaces for collaboration outside traditional multilateral channels.
For triangular co-operation, the outlook may be either bleak or promising as a foreign policy tool, depending on the context. Underfunded and perceived as complex, soft power-oriented and misaligned with narrowly defined national interests, in a bleak outlook triangular co-operation steadily declines in scale, scope and influence. By the early 2030s, it risks disappearing altogether, not least due to a dominant anti-development discourse, though the experience of recent decades suggests that when used strategically, triangular co-operation can pool resources efficiently and stretch government budgets further – a potential that could be rediscovered if political priorities shift. However, triangular co-operation is a promising strategic tool to work with geopolitical allies in combating the reach of competitors for influence and markets. Middle powers in each region act as pivotal partners to bridge divides.
Potential actions for triangular co-operation
Geopolitics. Prioritising issue-based partnerships and focusing on cross-cutting challenges such as climate resilience, disaster response and digitalisation can break through geopolitical boundaries and help overcome nationalist divides. This issue-based approach could also stimulate multi-stakeholder triangular partnerships among governments as a parallel effort during turbulent times.
Development co-operation modalities. Creating flexible and adaptive co-operation structures would allow for dynamic participation based on evolving national interests. (Box 3.13 in Chapter 3 presents more ideas for easing the administrative burden in triangular co-operation.) Sharing non-Western development models and integrating indigenous knowledge can contribute to decolonising both knowledge production and knowledge sharing in triangular co-operation. Decentralised and participatory financing mechanisms could organically emerge if central government institutions are retreating, helping empower communities to influence how funding for development projects and partnerships is distributed. Furthermore, triangular initiatives can benefit if they envision the continued strengthening of relationships among people and communities for long-term partnerships even after project funding stops.
Economy and financing. In this future, funding sources beyond the multilateral system and national governments need to be explored so that triangular co-operation demonstrates its ability to leverage resources from different partners and potentially attract seed public funding. For example, hybrid public-private partnerships (PPPs) and blended finance approaches that combine public, private and philanthropic funding for triangular co-operation can foster co-investment between governments, businesses and social enterprises for long-term partnerships. With the decline of multilateral funding, countries in the Global South can turn to alternative financial instruments such as sukuk, waqaf and other forms of Islamic finance.
Scenario 3: Corporate dominion: the privatisation of triangular co-operation
In the 2023 edition of this report, the unsustainable growth scenario highlighted the incentives for engaging the private sector to harness its resources and expertise, thereby driving growth in the absence of sustainability. Building on this trend, corporate dominion envisions a world where governments retreat from development co-operation and the private sector increasingly dominates both funding and implementation. Private wealth, philanthropy, investment funds and corporate entities set global development priorities, often advancing their own interests, which can be tied to corporate goals, self-promotion, personal affinities or the agendas of their networks. Less visible, less bankable or experimental approaches – particularly in social sectors – receive little or no funding, hitting partner countries that once relied heavily on ODA the hardest. In some cases, states fall under de facto corporate rule, with private entities dictating key policy choices while governments struggle to regulate corporate influence.
As the public sector weakens, regulatory frameworks erode, and governments offer partnerships to de-risk private investment in neglected sectors. Technologies such as AI, big data and digitalisation reshape governance, with AI-driven systems fostering nationalism and authoritarianism and often used to control populations and suppress dissent. Corporations hold the keys to AI and digital tools in the absence of strong global regulation, creating a form of digital imperialism. Technological elites consolidate control over knowledge, widening the digital divide, particularly in partner countries, and deepening inequalities that governments and multilateral institutions cannot redress.
In this environment, the space for triangular co-operation contracts as trust-based partnerships become harder to sustain. Yet, triangular co-operation can play a critical role in connecting actors that are still committed to sustainable development, offering a platform for building trust where government-led channels have weakened. Partnerships involving civil society, local communities and public-private alliances have the best chance of surviving, especially when they leverage the comparative advantages of diverse actors. Triangular partnerships can also help mediate between corporate and public interests, providing a neutral platform where priorities can be aligned and power asymmetries corrected. AI will be decisive in shaping how such partnerships are designed, implemented and monitored, offering opportunities to map partners, match resources and scale solutions but also reducing face-to-face interaction and making trust building more complex. In a corporate-dominated world, triangular co-operation may not be widespread but where it persists, it can act as one of the last spaces for horizontal collaboration and shared benefit.
Potential actions for triangular co-operation
Development co-operation modalities. Unlocking the opportunities offered by partnerships with the private sector requires a reimagining of traditional co-operation frameworks, including creating flexible spaces where private firms can join not only as contractors or suppliers but also as co-creators and peers in the pursuit of customised development solutions (Chapter 4). In this future, triangular co-operation could be positioned as a space that connects governments, the private sector and civil society in multi-stakeholder platforms to collectively address development challenges. Win-win-win triangular partnerships with the private sector could achieve the most sustainable development results as each partner has an inherent interest in achieving the agreed project goals.
Finance and economy. New governance models could be supported by novel financing mixes in triangular co-operation in this scenario – for instance by encouraging blended finance approaches where philanthropy partners with governments and the private sector to de-risk investments in development. To build mutual trust and confidence, it will be important to secure the long-term commitment of new partners, demonstrate effectiveness and transparency in the use of philanthropic funds, and ensure alignment with strategic development objectives and long-term sustainability.
Technology. Given the potentially divisive impact of AI, opportunities and risks need to be assessed carefully. While AI systems can perpetuate existing biases, potentially reinforcing inequalities, it may also act as equaliser in contexts where access to digital tools is available for everyone. The digital divide between high- and low-income countries and regions could widen further if access to AI and big data tools is unequal. There is also a risk that AI models and big data applications could be used in ways that conflict with local cultural norms and social values or be used in support of surveillance or authoritarian measures. AI could support matching partners and solutions in triangular co-operation, ease reporting burdens, and identify innovative solutions, e.g. in areas that are now underserved and funded.
Governance. Different forms of multi-stakeholder and PPPs will become the new normal. If documented and evaluated, lessons from initiatives could offer ample learning to position partners in triangular co-operation in this corporate world. Collaborative global and/or regional regulatory bodies with sustainability standards could attempt to guide corporate involvement in development and triangular co-operation initiatives.
Scenario 4: Sustainability leads: Greening triangular co-operation
This scenario builds on two opposing futures from the 2023 edition of this report: a new sustainable development world, in which countries commit to and implement far-reaching measures for sustainable production and consumption, and an unsustainable world, where most countries fail to shift away from growth models that harm the planet. In the sustainability leads scenario presented in this edition, a new world order emerges, either through conviction or in response to economic crises triggered by severe environmental shocks, that prioritises sustainability. Climate adaptation, resource management and intergenerational equity become central pillars of global co-operation. Increasingly frequent humanitarian crises underscore the urgency of systemic change, spurring innovative financing solutions such as debt-for-nature swaps, blended finance and sustainability-linked investments. A cultural shift towards sustainable futures influences decision making worldwide, reorienting development strategies around environmental and human resilience. Yet, tensions persist between advocates of rapid economic growth and those prioritising long-term environmental stability, with balancing immediate needs and future resilience proving a constant challenge.
The outcomes of the UN Summit of the Future and the Pact for the Future gain momentum, embedding intergenerational approaches in development policy and framing public spending as an investment in long-term resilience. While ageing populations in developed economies increase fiscal pressures, they also drive investment towards fast-growing, often developing economies as a means to sustain global growth.
By fostering sustainable investment frameworks, triangular co-operation plays an increasingly promising role in ensuring a just transition to a greener future. It provides a trusted framework for aligning public, private and civil society actors around shared climate and sustainability objectives. Triangular co-operation thrives in this scenario by fostering climate partnerships and facilitating knowledge sharing on sustainable practices. By connecting partners across regions, triangular co-operation accelerates the diffusion of sustainable technologies, climate-smart agriculture, renewable energy solutions and resource-efficient production models. It enables vulnerable developing countries to access both finance and know-how for climate mitigation and adaptation and to contribute their own locally rooted solutions to the global knowledge base and thus to global public goods.
Potential actions for triangular co-operation
Development co-operation modalities. Partners in triangular co-operation can establish platforms for regional and cross-border exchange of best practices, climate data and innovative adaptation solutions, thereby strengthening local capacities for long-term resilience, providing capacity building and facilitating knowledge sharing. New triangular partnerships can support localised adaptation strategies that help empower local communities by providing them with tools, resources and decision-making power to develop and implement adaptation solutions tailored to local climate challenges. Similarly, strengthening local knowledge systems and investing in indigenous and traditional knowledge can enhance long-term sustainability of projects.
Economy and financing. Existing climate-responsive financing models can be made more flexible to connect and amplify triangular co-operation exchanges in the horizontal approach that characterises partnerships with multiple actors. For example, the conservation programmes that emerge from debt-for-nature swaps or the climate-resilient projects that emerge from green bonds can explicitly include triangular exchanges in the form of comprehensive knowledge sharing, co-ordinated action, and support between actors with similar ecosystems or transborder ecosystems.
Especially in the area of resilience to climate and challenges around ageing populations and health care, innovative financial instruments can be complex. Triangular partnerships have proven useful for learning and building trust in advance of the launch of bigger initiatives. This modality can also facilitate knowledge sharing on how to mobilise resources and adapt financial mechanisms to address goals linked to resilience that are agreed and served through horizontal partnerships, for example through interregional and globally integrated approaches to public finances.
Technology. Partners in triangular co-operation can deploy AI and big data for climate risk mapping and to direct resources and interventions to the most vulnerable areas. They can also invest in creating regional early warning systems to improve climate disaster preparedness and response.
Governance. Fostering cross-sectoral collaboration, partners in triangular co-operation can engage the private sector for expertise in green technologies, academic institutions for research on climate impacts, and indigenous communities for locally adapted solutions to drive integrated, resilient development. They can also develop financial instruments, such as micro-insurance and dedicated adaptation funds, to address climate vulnerabilities and increase resilience in high-risk areas. Furthermore, triangular partnerships could facilitate developing countries’ access to emissions reduction markets, enabling them to generate financial resources for climate mitigation projects through triangular initiatives. Triangular co-operation projects should aim to align national policies with regional and global sustainability goals.
Environment and social. In this future, it will be crucial to mainstream climate action across all triangular co-operation initiatives, prioritising projects with environmental goals including protecting biodiversity and ecosystems. Partners in triangular co-operation could address climate resilience as a central goal by incorporating adaptation measures and strategies into their planning and execution and embedding climate resilience and sustainability as core criteria in project design, implementation and evaluation. Partners in triangular co-operation can align their project design with nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans to ensure that efforts contribute to national and local climate goals and are consistent with long-term resilience strategies.
Foresight exercises and scenario development are strategic tools used to explore plausible futures, anticipate risks and opportunities, and inform the design of more robust and adaptive actions and policies. The next step is to pose and answer the question, so, what now? A group of experts4 convened in a focus group to identify what were called strategic “good bets” and “no regret” actions – that is, interventions deemed beneficial across a wide range of plausible futures. Drawing on insights from the four scenarios, the group developed overarching, scenario-independent recommendations that are presented in this section.
The scenarios are a clear call to prepare to partner in more creative ways, including catering to the national and mutual interests of partners (OECD/IsDB, 2023[4]). Multiple crises, budget cuts, widening inequalities and other challenges demand that more be done with fewer resources. The FfD4 Seville Commitment (Compromiso de Sevilla) also calls for a new era of partnerships. Triangular co-operation can lead the way in fostering more genuine partnerships where all partners are learners and knowledge sharers and are not boxed in by traditional assigned roles. Prioritising partnership and lasting results over institutional visibility or control; accounting for the contributions of not just the provider(s) of financing but all partners; and promoting win-win-win models of triangular co-operation are elements of this new era of partnerships. Especially in the scenarios where there was less co-operation, there was strong interest in building bridges and strengthening bonds between regions and stakeholders to help uphold norms and standards in a conflictual or fragmented world. In other scenarios, co-operation was a mainstream element, with triangular partnerships being part of the normal toolkit.
Geopolitics: Connect past achievements, emerging global discussions and future pathways for the development co-operation system. The Second UN High-level Conference on South-South Cooperation (BAPA+40) in 2019 alongside G20 discussions and the FfD4 this year firmly established triangular co-operation on the global development agenda. The essence of triangular co-operation also is embedded in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 17. Still, better triangular action is needed to live up to the narrative, and the narrative needs to reflect all the benefits that triangular co-operation generates, both through and beyond the specific expected outcome of a project. It will be important to take stock and critically assess lessons from the triangular co-operation community to inform the current reform process and inspire change towards more partnership-oriented approaches. Mechanisms such as the IsDB’s Reverse Linkage and regional programmes and centres of excellence can serve as hubs for foresight-informed triangular co-operation, anchoring future-oriented planning in regional systems by adapting to different cultural contexts.
Development co-operation modalities: Forge strong interregional triangular partnerships. In the more fragmented and regional scenarios, triangular co-operation is a tool to build bridges, invest in technical diplomacy (OECD/IsDB, 2023[4]), and continue peer exchange. Investing in interregional triangular co-operation now will foster strong partnerships for the future and increase the likelihood that these projects will be continued across different scenarios, making interregional triangular co-operation another “no regret” recommendation.
Prepare to learn and change and remain flexible and adaptable. In every future scenario, innovations, flexibility, and new mechanisms and instruments are proposed to produce even more ambitious results. Benefitting partners often regard flexibility and adaptability as key strengths of triangular co-operation. They have seen how slowly institutions change and how reluctant national and multilateral organisations are to let go of the business-as-usual mindset. Amplifying channels of triangular co-operation, creating new mechanisms and instruments, bringing in actors that are not traditional to the triangular co-operation ecosystem, and engaging with AI effectively and responsibly – these all require trust among partners. Investing in foresight units or inter-agency task forces can help systematically scan risks, identify inflection points and prepare for long-term development transitions, including in triangular co-operation.
Governance: Expand the network of partners. All four scenarios feature the following elements: "different forms of multi-stakeholder and PPPs will become the new normal", "participatory financing mechanisms", "de-colonising", and "polycentric collaboration frameworks". Also in each scenario, new partners in triangular co-operation, ranging from the private sector to local community groups, are likely to gain in importance. Closely observing how these actors engage in triangular co-operation will help in shaping inclusive triangular partnerships, as will building on their momentum and dynamism and adapting lessons in a bottom-up way to inform policies and strategies. In triangular co-operation, even if one actor shuts down, others will have been empowered; indirectly strengthening individuals can also strengthen the ecosystem. Cross-sector networks of “public entrepreneurs” could support individuals across governments, civil society, the private sector, philanthropy and multilateral development banks to drive innovation in triangular co-operation.
Economy and financing: Spotlight new and innovative supporting mechanisms. Resources for development co-operation are under stress and increasingly scarce, and ODA budgets are one but not the only space to monitor (OECD, 2025[7]). Triangular co-operation drives efficiency gains by pooling resources from several partners. These partnerships leverage additional resources such as sector-specific expertise, in-kind contributions, and access to new markets and networks. Thinking beyond financing, a smart mix of resources and small amounts of funding can go very far in creating both impact at the local, national and regional levels and sustainable practices that lead to mutual-win situations with the private sector.
The different scenarios show that funding mechanisms for triangular co-operation need to be diversified rather than rely mainly on financing provided by governments or international organisations and should include for example impact, social or green bonds; blended finance; microfinance models; and risk insurance, among others. Co-creation of instruments by and among not only financial providers but also potential partners in all roles contributes to testing the partnership readiness of the instrument and horizontality in practice.
Technology: Invest in digital tools, platforms and AI. While Scenario 3 touches on the trend of including AI and other digital tools as “new partners” in triangular co-operation, their growing prominence also features across all scenarios – a new reality that was not as strong when the first edition of this report was being prepared. Investing in digital tools is a “no regret” action. However, unlocking AI’s benefits requires mitigating its risks: Biased algorithms, misuse, and lack of transparency in AI can harm human rights, erode accountability, deepen digital divides and weaken public trust in government (OECD, 2025[8]).
Potential advantages include boosting productivity, responsiveness and accountability of government use of AI. New digital skills need to be developed, regulatory frameworks established, and practices tested with constant learning and feedback loops. Digital tools could help in mapping reforms, policies and innovative solutions to development challenges (see Chapter 4 and Boxes 4.4 and 4.5). These tools could also help in finding partners and projects. But to use their full potential, it is necessary to address the issues of triangular co-operation being underreported (see Chapter 2), under-resourced and understaffed. Triangular partnerships could contribute to the adaptation of AI and digital tools to different contexts, ensuring that technology is not treated as the immediate solution but rather analysing what tool or technology is adequate to respond to and resolve problems in useful and empowering ways. Innovation accelerators could support the spotting, scaling, funding and sharing of (digital) innovations through triangular partnerships.
References
[1] GPI on Effective Triangular Co-operation (2019), Triangular Co-operation in the Era of the 2030 Agenda: Sharing Evidence and Stories from the Field, Global Partnership Initiative (GPI) on Effective Triangular Co-operation, New York, https://triangular-cooperation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Final-GPI-report-BAPA40.pdf.
[3] Islamic Development Bank (2019), Reverse Linkage Policy, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah, https://www.isdb.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/2019-03/RL%20Policy.pdf.
[7] OECD (2025), Cuts in official development assistance: OECD projections for 2025 and the near term, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/8c530629-en.
[8] OECD (2025), Governing with Artificial Intelligence: The State of Play and Way Forward in Core Government Functions, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/795de142-en.
[5] OECD (2025), Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy: A Comprehensive Foresight Methodology to Support Sustainable and Future-Ready Public Policy, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/bcdd9304-en.
[6] OECD (2024), Triangular Co-operation with Small Island Developing States (SIDS), DCD(2024)19, OECD, Paris, https://one.oecd.org/document/DCD(2024)19/en/pdf.
[2] OECD (2022), Triangular Co-operation with Africa, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://triangular-cooperation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/OECD_Triangular-co-operation-with-Africa.pdf.
[4] OECD/IsDB (2023), Global Perspectives on Triangular Co-operation, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/29e2cbc0-en.
← 1. This publication uses the terms triangular and trilateral interchangeably.
← 2. The participants of the foresight exercises were from many different countries and multilateral organisations. As with any exercise of this kind, issues around representativeness and inclusivity arose since the participants were triangular co-operation policy makers, experts and practitioners who travelled to Lisbon to participate in person in discussions around the future of the modality. The participants were then also invited for the follow-up virtual workshops.
← 3. The scenarios and analysis do not represent the corporate views of the OECD or the IsDB.
← 4. The community of triangular co-operation practitioners who met in Lisbon in October 2024 co-created the scenarios and the considerations for actions to prepare for each possible future. In the discussions, it proved challenging to separate out the scenarios and come up with considerations that would be specific to triangular co-operation as most possible actions apply to other modalities of development co-operation as well. Another challenge is to avoid falling back on wishful thinking when anticipating future policies; this is because evidence to underpin the scenarios is scarce and it is difficult to imagine the full implications of each scenario without slipping into normative thinking of what should be done to uphold the value system of today’s world. In this regard, participants bring into the conversation their particular biases from where they stand in the global triangular co-operation system, and such biases are also inherent in the process of creating the four scenarios. A focus group discussion of the co-authors of this report with key triangular co-operation and foresight experts was organised to constructively work with biases and reflect on best bets for the future of triangular co-operation.