This overview introduces how systems innovation can support climate-resilient urban development in intermediary cities, with a focus on Kenya and Mozambique. While their emissions are relatively low, these countries face fast-paced urban growth, making current decisions vital to avoid carbon lock-in and support well-being. Using the OECD’s systems innovation methodology, the report identifies high-leverage points to shift trajectories in four cities: Kiambu, Nakuru, Beira and Quelimane. The analysis highlights emerging risks, such as weakening cycling systems in Quelimane and congestion-inducing planning in Beira, but also opportunities, from rethinking road space in Kiambu and Nakuru to fostering a local bicycle economy in Quelimane. The chapter emphasises the need to reshape infrastructure, spatial development, governance and mobility culture. It concludes with policy recommendations to help cities turn systemic insights into action, paving the way for inclusive, low-emission urban futures.
Climate Mitigation in Intermediary Cities
Abstract
Although Kenya and Mozambique are not major contributors to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both countries have a critical interest in avoiding carbon lock-in. In 2021, Kenya’s CO₂ emissions stood at 22.4 Mt, while Mozambique emitted just 8.6 Mt (IEA-EDGAR, 2022[1]). Combined, these figures represented less than 1% of the European Union’s emissions in the same year. This limited contribution to the global emissions stock has sometimes been cited as an argument to limit climate mitigation efforts in countries with pressing development needs. However, this line of reasoning overlooks the significant local costs associated with carbon-intensive systems, such as congestion, air pollution, energy insecurity, and spatial inequality. For countries like Kenya and Mozambique, avoiding carbon lock-in is not only about contributing to global climate goals; it is also a strategic investment in healthier, more efficient and resilient, and more inclusive urban systems.
Urbanisation in both countries is advancing rapidly, and decisions taken today will shape mobility, accessibility, and land use patterns for decades to come. As intermediary cities grow, their choices regarding infrastructure, planning, and regulation will either entrench unsustainable development paths or unlock transformative opportunities. This report argues that now is the time to think in systems.
Kenya and Mozambique are uniquely positioned: their urban areas are expanding, yet many of the physical and institutional systems that govern urban development are still emerging. This creates a narrow but critical window to avoid replicating the unsustainable models that have led to carbon-intensive, car-dependent cities elsewhere. The experience of Nakuru, Kiambu, Beira and Quelimane illustrates how early decisions – on spatial form, transport investments, and governance – can generate reinforcing feedback loops that are either virtuous or vicious.
The case studies presented in this report show that systems innovation is both necessary and possible. Across all four cities, entry points for transformational change already exist. However, piecemeal interventions or sector-specific responses will not be sufficient. Tackling the underlying causes of congestion, sprawl, and accessibility gaps requires a shift from reactive, fragmented planning to long-term, systemic approaches.
Applying the OECD’s systems innovation methodology, this report maps out how transport, land use, governance, and investment dynamics interact over time. Through participatory workshop sessions, visioning exercises, and systemic tools (e.g. causal loop diagrams), the analysis revealed how structural patterns emerge and persist, and how they might be altered. The analysis identifies high-leverage points where well-designed interventions can disrupt negative trajectories and support more sustainable, inclusive pathways.
The findings underscore that infrastructure, regulation, and social norms are deeply interconnected. Paratransit systems, for example, are shaped not only by demand and regulation, but also by road capacity and urban sprawl. Similarly, low-density development undermines public transport viability while increasing private vehicle use and reinforcing inequities in access to jobs and services.
Engaging a broad range of stakeholders – across government, civil society, and the private sector – has been essential to identifying these dynamics. Through this collaborative set-up, it became clear that systemic barriers can be more easily identified, discussed, and addressed when institutions can come together around a shared long-term vision and have practical tools that allow creating a common understanding of vicious dynamics and levers for change. The visioning process showed that co-creating a shared future encourages dialogue across different perspectives on what a desirable city should look like. It helps identify potential synergies, trade-offs and tensions, particularly in relation to spatial design and the allocation of urban space for multiple functions. These aspects are often overlooked in conventional planning documents and infrastructure strategies, including in the cities analysed in this report.
For Kenya and Mozambique, this is a decisive moment. The urban systems of 2050 will not be determined solely by population growth or economic trends, but by the quality of today’s planning, investment, and governance. Embracing systems thinking is not just a technical exercise, it is a strategic imperative for building cities that are resilient, equitable, and compatible with a low-carbon future.
The transport sector plays a critical role in addressing climate change in both Kenya and Mozambique
As Kenya urbanises, CO₂ emissions from the transport sector are rising at an accelerated pace. The growing number of private vehicles, the predominant reliance on fossil fuels, and rapid urban expansion have contributed to a steep and sustained increase in transport-related emissions. Between 2000 and 2021, emissions from the transport sector more than tripled, from 2.7 Mt to 8.9 Mt CO2. By 2021, transport had become the highest-emitting sector, well ahead of other sources such as power industry (1.1 Mt), buildings (1.07 Mt), and other sectors (2.95 Mt). As shown in Figure 1.1, this trend highlights a growing dependence on carbon-intensive mobility in Kenya, raising concerns about long-term sustainability and climate resilience.
Mozambique presents a similar trajectory, with the transport sector emerging as the dominant source of CO₂ emissions. From 0.85 Mt in 2000, transport emissions rose to 3.4 Mt by 2021, representing a fourfold increase. As of 2021, emissions from transport were more than twice those of the power industry (1.77 Mt), and significantly higher than emissions from other sectors (2.2 Mt) and buildings (0.12 Mt). While emissions from the power sector have grown sharply since 2015, primarily due to increased fossil fuel use in power generation, transport remains the principal driver of Mozambique’s emissions profile, as illustrated in Figure 1.1.
Source: IEA-EDGAR (2022[1]).
Economic development has contributed to the increasing number of motorised vehicles in both countries, which in turn has led to the steady growth of GHG emissions in the transport sector
As in other parts of the world, increasing economic activity has contributed to a higher number of vehicles in Kenya. Indeed, Kenya’s rising income levels are associated with an increasing number of cars and two and three wheelers. Figure 1.2 shows that, between 2005 and 2020, Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased from approximately 500 to 1 900 USD PPP; in other words, income increased by a factor of four in 15 years (World Bank, 2025[2]). An increase of a similar magnitude can be observed in the stock of cars, which increased from approximately 300 000 to 1.2 million vehicles during the same period (ITF, 2023[3]). Two and three wheelers have experienced an even greater increase, from a stock of almost 60 000 to almost 2 million vehicles, i.e. these types of vehicles were multiplied by more than 30 in a period of 15 years (ITF, 2023[3]).
Despite fluctuations in economic growth, Mozambique has also experienced a steady increase in the number of motorised vehicles, including cars, two- and three-wheelers. Figure 1.2 shows that, between 2009 and 2020, Mozambique’s GDP declined from USD 531 to USD 454 (PPP), reflecting economic volatility and external shocks, particularly due to the country’s reliance on extractive industries such as gas production (World Bank, 2023[4]; African Development Bank Group, 2024[5]). A significant slowdown occurred between 2015 and 2016, exacerbating economic instability. Nevertheless, vehicle ownership continued to increase during this period. The stock of cars grew by almost 50%, from 204 000 in 2009 to 300 000 in 2016. Similarly, the number of two- and three-wheelers nearly doubled, rising from 45 000 in 2009 to 84 000 in 2020. This trend suggests that while economic growth has been inconsistent, the demand for motorised transport has continued to rise, particularly for private cars. The sustained increase in two- and three-wheelers may reflect their role as an affordable and efficient transport option in Mozambique. Unlike cars, motorcycles offer lower costs and greater flexibility, making them an attractive choice for mobility, especially in low-income settings. Moreover, they are often used to transport passengers, generating an additional source of income.
If not addressed, fast urban expansion will contribute to carbon lock-in
If urban expansion continues as business as usual, it will lead to rapid land conversion and increased CO2 emissions in Kenya. Projections of urban land expansion suggest that, without significant changes, urban areas will keep growing at a fast pace for the next three decades. Figure 1.3 shows the expected increase in urban surface (i.e. built-up area of urban agglomerations) for every five years between 2020 and 2050 in Kenya. For instance, between 2020 and 2025 the total built-up area is expected to increase by 16%. Moreover, the accumulated effects of its growth rate for the next decades will be significant. Indeed, the built-up area will almost double its size by 2050 from approximately 33 000 to 63 000 km2, equivalent to a 92% growth.
Mozambique is expected to experience rapid land-use change. Urbanisation is progressing at different speeds worldwide, but Africa is urbanising at an exceptionally fast rate (OECD/SWAC, 2024[6]). This is also the case for Mozambique. Figure 1.3 shows Mozambique’s projected urban expansion, measured as the increase in built-up area, for every five-year period between 2020 and 2050. Between 2020 and 2025, the total built-up area is expected to grow by 25%. Over the next three decades, this expansion will accelerate, tripling the country’s urban footprint. By 2050, Mozambique’s built-up area will increase by 213% (compared to 2020 level), from 4 244 km2 to 13 272 km2. This is more than two times higher than expected urban population growth. If continued, this rapid growth will create major challenges for the government, increasing pressure on urban infrastructure and basic services provision (World Bank, 2017[7]).
As urban areas expand, managing them will become increasingly complex. This results from the environmental and social challenges associated with rapid urban growth, as well as an increasing number of stakeholders involved and the need for more robust governance mechanisms (Cities Alliance, 2017[8]). Indeed, local governments will need to address a wide range of urban issues, including traffic congestion, inadequate public services, and environmental pollution (World Bank, 2017[7]). These pressures can strain municipal capacities, making it difficult to ensure efficient service delivery and sustainable urban development. In this context, strategic urban planning will be essential to promote compact, connected, and resilient cities. Without such measures, rapid urban expansion may undermine economic development, elevate CO2 emissions, and widen disparities in living conditions.
Note: Urban surface (built-up area) at five-year intervals and accumulated growth rate from 2020 to 2050. Bars represent total urban surface (Km2), while the line accounts for the percentage of urban population.
Source: OECD/SWAC (2024[6]).
It is important to highlight that urbanisation, when well-planned and managed, can generate a range of positive outcomes. Compact urban forms, strong public transport, and safe non-motorised mobility reduce emissions and enhance quality of life. The challenge arises when urbanisation is rapid and inadequately planned, as in many intermediary cities in Kenya and Mozambique. In such contexts, uncoordinated expansion often results in car-dependence, rising congestion, and emissions. The goal is not to slow urbanisation, but to shape it intentionally, leveraging its potential while avoiding unsustainable, high-emission development.
Addressing the root causes of unsustainable urban development requires moving beyond observed trends, such as those presented in the previous section. While analysing trends is useful for anticipating future outcomes – especially under a business-as-usual trajectory – focusing solely on trends risks confining decision-making to reactive strategies. This often leads policymakers to concentrate on managing consequences, rather than changing the systems that produce them.
The iceberg model presented in Figure 1.4 offers a useful analogy of why we need to go beyond trend. It shows that if we stay at the top of the iceberg, only focusing on the events and patterns we observe, we will only implement policies that react to those events or anticipate the patterns that are bringing undesired results. However, to transform our cities, we need to look below the surface and implement policies that change the structure of our systems and our mental models (how we think about the world). Both the structure of our systems and our mental models are the mechanisms that shape the trends we observe. Hence, solely by changing the way our systems work, and the vision of the world behind our systems, can we truly transform our world.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Systems thinking offers a powerful approach to help intermediary cities identify the root causes of carbon lock-in and poor well-being outcomes. The core objective of the case studies carried out in Nakuru and Kiambu (Kenya), and Beira and Quelimane (Mozambique), is to support these cities in adopting a systemic perspective, particularly regarding transport, land-use, and climate policies. This approach seeks to understand how system structures and feedback mechanisms perpetuate high emissions and limited well-being, while also offering a pathway for redesigning these systems to produce better, more sustainable outcomes.
The analysis builds on well-established concepts from systems thinking, adapted through the OECD’s process for systems innovation for net-zero (OECD, 2022[9]) and through UN-Habitat’s experience and expertise in urban innovation (UN-Habitat, 2025[10]). This process has been specifically tailored to meet the context and needs of intermediary cities in developing countries. The result is a four-step methodology that offers local authorities and stakeholders a practical entry point for systems thinking.
Figure 1.5 illustrates this methodology. The first step is to envision a long-term vision for a well-functioning urban system, and to challenge dominant mental models that have historically shaped unsustainable urban planning. The second step focuses on understanding the current system, mapping the key structures and feedback loops that drive spatial and mobility trends. This analysis lays the groundwork for the third step, which is to identify high-leverage points, places in the system where targeted interventions can unlock transformational change. The final step is to co-design strategic interventions that act on these leverage points to shift the system toward a more sustainable and inclusive trajectory.
In each case study, this four-step process was implemented through a mix of analytical and participatory activities. The work began with a desk review and statistical analysis to understand current trends. This was followed by a series of semi-structured interviews with local actors and a review of official policy documents, allowing for the identification of key contextual insights. The next stage focused on systems mapping, visually capturing the core components and dynamics within each urban system using inputs from both data and stakeholder engagement.
The process culminated in multi-day workshops held in each city. These workshops brought together policymakers, technical staff, and relevant stakeholders to walk through each step of the methodology. The exercises supported participants in creating 2050 sustainable visions for their cities, uncovering system dynamics, identifying strategic entry points, and co-developing actionable ideas for policy intervention. Together, these activities created a foundation for cities to move beyond managing symptoms and toward reshaping systems for long-term transformation.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Kiambu: A dynamic urban area close to Nairobi
Kiambu, located just a few kilometres north of Nairobi, has experienced rapid urbanisation, largely driven by its proximity to Kenya’s capital. Kiambu’s population was estimated in 146 903 in 2019 and it is projected that by 2027 it will grow by about 18%, reaching a population of 172 246 (County Government of Kiambu, 2022[11]). As Nairobi has expanded, Kiambu has increasingly become a residential and commercial extension of the city, offering more affordable housing and development opportunities for people working in the capital. This transformation has led to significant land use changes from agricultural to residential and commercial uses, often occurring without a guiding spatial framework (County Government of Kiambu, 2022[11]; Maina and Waiganjo, 2024[12]). As a result, the county faces rising congestion, intermittent water supply, and poor waste management. In addition, informal land development has strained existing access roads, many of which were originally footpaths (Abuya, 2019[13]).
In terms of transport, Kiambu’s road network is heavily influenced by its role as a commuter town for Nairobi. Many residents travel daily to Nairobi for work, leading to significant pressure on the main roads connecting the two cities. As highlighted during interviews with multiple stakeholders, the reliance on private vehicles, matatus (minibuses), and boda bodas (motorcycle taxis) has resulted in frequent traffic jams, especially during peak hours, making commuting a challenge. Additionally, despite being close to Nairobi, public transport options remain limited and inefficient, with no integrated mass transit system to ease the movement of large numbers of people between the two cities.
Nakuru: A major hub for trade and commerce in the Rift Valley
Nakuru City, the capital of Nakuru County in Kenya’s Rift Valley, is a rapidly growing urban centre located approximately 160 kilometres northwest of Nairobi. Situated along the A104 highway – a major regional corridor connecting Mombasa, Nairobi, and Uganda – the city has developed as a strategic hub for trade and mobility. This location has shaped its urban growth and transport systems, attracting industries, logistics operations, and commerce (Willkomm, Follmann and Dannenberg, 2021[14]). This type of urban development, where cities expand along highways, is common in Kenya and is usually characterised by limited planning for secondary and tertiary roads.
With an estimated population of 570 674 in 2019, Nakuru is Kenya’s third largest urban agglomeration (County Government of Nakuru, 2025[15]). Its sizeable population supports strong consumer demand, stimulating local markets, job creation, and private investment. Tourism also plays a vital economic role, with Lake Nakuru and the surrounding national park attracting domestic and international visitors, boosting hospitality, transport, and service sectors.
However, the city’s rapid expansion has often outpaced infrastructure development. New residential, commercial, and industrial zones – particularly on the periphery – have increased pressure on basic services such as water, waste management, and electricity. To accommodate growing population needs, planners have extended the central business district southward (Mogire, Kagendo and Kweyu, 2022[16]).
Public transport remains largely informal, dominated by matatus, which are privately operated minibuses with low capacity and limited co-ordination. The absence of efficient mass transit has led to increasing traffic congestion, particularly during peak hours, resulting in higher fossil fuel consumption and worsening air quality. These dynamics highlight the need for integrated urban planning and investment in sustainable transport infrastructure to support Nakuru’s continued growth.
Beira: A dynamic commercial hub that is increasingly challenged by climate change
Beira, the capital of Sofala Province, is a vital coastal city in central Mozambique, strategically positioned along the Indian Ocean at the mouth of the Pungwe River. Its location makes it a key logistical and transportation hub, serving not only Mozambique but also landlocked neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia, with well-established rail and road connections.
Beira is Mozambique’s second-largest city. Founded in the late 19th century as a colonial administrative centre, Beira has since evolved into a dynamic urban hub. In the last decades, the city has experienced significant urban growth. In 2020, its population was estimated at 417 000; by 2025, its population is expected to grow further to 627 000 (Melchiorri et al., 2024[17]). Like many rapidly growing coastal cities, it faces complex development challenges, including urban sprawl, lack of resilient infrastructure, and the need for an adequate transport system.
Beira is particularly vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, notably cyclones and rising sea levels. Cyclone Idai in 2019 underscored the city’s exposure to climate-related risks, causing extensive damage to infrastructure, homes, and livelihoods. In response, efforts to enhance climate resilience have become a priority, with initiatives focusing on flood management, coastal protection, and sustainable urban planning.
Moving forward, Beira’s ability to balance economic growth with climate actions will allow the city to adapt to climate change, while avoiding carbon lock-in. Investments in resilient infrastructure, efficient public services, and environmental protection will play a key role in securing a more sustainable future for the city and its residents.
Quelimane: An innovative urban centre at the front of climate action
Quelimane, the capital of Zambezia Province, is a key urban centre in central Mozambique, located along the Rio dos Bons Sinais, just inland from the Indian Ocean. Its economy is driven by commerce, agriculture – particularly sugar and copra production – and fishing. However, the government remains the largest source of formal employment in the city.
In 2023, Quelimane’s population was estimated at over 460 000, with a projected annual growth rate of 2.7% over the next decade (Municipality of Quelimane, 2023[18]). This growth is fuelled by both natural population increase and internal migration from Zambezia Province. As a result, Quelimane faces significant urban planning challenges, including the need for sustainable growth management, improved infrastructure, and enhanced access to basic services. Additionally, its low-lying geography makes it highly vulnerable to flooding, a threat intensified by climate change and inadequate drainage systems.
Quelimane is widely recognised for its strong cycling culture, which distinguishes it from other Mozambican cities. Bicycles are a primary mode of transport, favoured due to the city’s flat terrain, affordability compared to motorised transport, and an ingrained local cycling tradition. This widespread use of bicycles has been largely promoted by the city's leadership since 2015, with efforts to encourage cycling as an affordable transport solution and a means of livelihood creation for its growing population. The city is home to an estimated 5 500 to 6 000 taxi bikes, providing an essential service to residents while reinforcing Quelimane’s identity as a cycling city (Municipality of Quelimane, 2023[18]).
Moving forward, Quelimane’s ability to manage urban expansion, enhance climate resilience, and further develop sustainable mobility solutions will be critical in shaping its future as a liveable and inclusive city.
Paratransit feeds induced demand
Induced demand occurs when road expansion, intended to reduce congestion, ultimately leads to more traffic and congestion. Figure 1.6 (A) shows that, as governments increase road capacity, congestion initially decreases (loop B1). However, this improved traffic flow makes driving more attractive, which increases motor vehicle use and eventually reintroduces congestion (loop B2). This reinforcing cycle illustrates a common policy failure, where the solution exacerbates the original problem.
In Kenya, induced demand is compounded by the role of paratransit. Informal operators – primarily matatus and boda bodas – fill critical gaps in mobility, especially in areas underserved by formal transport systems. Unlike in more regulated contexts, the expansion of road infrastructure in Nakuru and Kiambu stimulates both private car use as well as growth in Matatus. Matatus are central to urban mobility in Kenya, serving 88% of motorised trips in large cities and 72% in smaller ones (Gulyani, 2019[19]). Yet most are old and poorly maintained, contributing significantly to air pollution and GHG emissions (Salon and Gulyani, 2019[20]). Due to limited regulation, the entry of new matatu operators increases as roads improve, adding to congestion (loop B3).
The Nakuru Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan (2014–2030) reflects the oversight of induced demand, prioritising road expansion – such as widening and extending roads along the A104 corridor – as a solution to congestion. While active transport is considered in this plan, infrastructure development largely favours motorised traffic.
Congestion also boosts demand for boda bodas, which can bypass traffic more easily. Their rapid, unregulated growth further amplifies long-term traffic increases (loop R1). This makes induced demand in Kenyan cities both more complex and more difficult to reverse, regardless of whether road capacity keeps pace, as without the development of quality alternatives of public and non-motorised modes the rate of road capacity expansion will solely determine the motorcycle Vs car composition of a rapidly growing fleet.
Sprawl acts as a multiplier of induced demand
Urban sprawl is a defining feature of transport and land-use dynamics in Nakuru and Kiambu. Both counties are undergoing substantial expansion: between 2000 and 2030, Kiambu’s urban area is expected to grow by 41% and Nakuru’s by 87% (Melchiorri et al., 2024[17]). These figures do not capture growth in the broader catchment areas, which are shaped by spatial and transport planning policies. Sprawl typically entails low-density, unplanned, and single-use development, increasing the distance between homes, jobs, and services, and thereby deepening dependence on motorised transport.
Figure 1.6 (B) presents the causal loop diagram for this dynamic. Loop R3 illustrates how growing economic opportunities attract population inflows, which intensify demand for centrally located land. This leads to land scarcity and rising housing prices, pushing development – and informal settlement – towards the periphery. As more people settle farther from the urban core, the catchment area expands, reinforcing a low-density pattern of growth. This expansion weakens spatial efficiency and makes modes such as private cars, matatus, and boda bodas more attractive (loop R2), multiplying traffic volumes and reinforcing induced demand. While greater matatu supply can eventually decrease due to high traffic congestion, boda bodas are not affected by congestion in the same way. They often complement matatus for last-mile connectivity and tend to be an appealing solution at peak hours, since they can manoeuvre better in high traffic flows. Therefore, this type of transport experiences an exponential growth captured by R1.
Portuguese planning has made intermediary cities congestion blind
Beira offers a distinct case of induced demand shaped by its colonial-era design. Portuguese planning endowed the city with a wide, spacious road network, particularly in the central business district (CBD), which remains far from saturation. As a result, the city has remained largely “congestion-blind”: traffic is increasing, but current volumes do not yet overwhelm the oversized infrastructure. Thus, the typical double feedback loop between congestion and infrastructure investment has not yet been “activated”.
Beira’s current “immunity” to congestion is temporary. Once traffic volumes catch up with road capacity – especially in the CBD – congestion will emerge suddenly and may prove harder to manage. Due to this oversized infrastructure by the time congestion appears, the city will be locked into a large vehicle fleet and high car dependency. Moreover, in the case of Beira, it may not be possible to expand road infrastructure around the CBD due to informal settlements that act as a grey belt. A potential risk is that once this happens the city falls into “leapfrog” development supported by road connections that are able to bypass the informal settlement areas around the CBD; increasing urban sprawl which is already a challenge (see more below).
Growing transport demand is met by motorcycles, informal transport and a small but rapidly growing fleet of private SUVs and pickups. Motorbikes dominate mobility in informal areas, navigating narrow and unpaved streets. Simultaneously, poor road quality across the city has led to a shift toward larger vehicles – SUVs and pickups – that further degrade infrastructure and displace safer, low-carbon modes such as walking and cycling, while reinforcing demand for large private vehicles. This dynamic intensifies emissions, reduces accessibility, and narrows future transport options. Without early planning and investment in public and active transport the legacy of congestion-blind planning will result in a deeply entrenched, high-emission transport system.
Urban sprawl compounds the problem. Between 2000 and 2030, Beira’s population is projected to grow by 83%, while its built-up area will expand by 92%, indicating falling densities and rising land consumption. With limited formal housing, low-income populations settle in peripheral informal areas, expanding the city’s catchment and reinforcing reliance on motorised vehicles, in particular motorcycles.
Note: Panel A illustrates induced demand: as congestion worsens, pressure to reduce it increases, prompting government investment in road infrastructure. This expands road capacity for mixed traffic and initially reduces congestion (B1). However, reduced congestion makes driving more attractive, leading to increased car use, traffic volume, and emissions (B2). The expanded capacity also incentivises matatu services, contributing further to traffic and emissions growth (B3). In contrast, congestion boosts the attractiveness of boda bodas, making them more appealing when roads are congested (R1). Thus, continuous road expansion to relieve congestion can drive rapid growth in cars and matatus, while persistent congestion may shift more demand toward boda bodas. Panel A also shows that increasing road capacity expands the catchment area, reducing the density of people and places. Panel B highlights that lower density increases the attractiveness of all motorised transport – cars, matatus, and boda bodas – further raising traffic volumes. This dynamic illustrates how urban sprawl reinforces induced demand. The figure also notes that the rise in matatus and cars is not entirely additive; some substitution occurs, as more attractive matatu services reduce the number of people choosing to drive, indicated by the red arrow in the figure.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
More sustainable transport is possible, but fragile
Quelimane offers a rare example of a virtuous urban mobility cycle in sub-Saharan Africa. The widespread use of taxi bikes, used in over a third of daily trips (Mendiate and Robinson, 2019[21]), has created a virtual cycle that has constrained the expansion and induced demand of motorised informal public transport, limiting the rise of motorised traffic and emissions. This is captured in Figure 1.7 (B4). This success has also supported local livelihoods through a network of bike-related services (Runhungwe and Ferrao, 2022[22]; Nkurunziza et al., 2012[23]). The result is a low-emission, inclusive transport system that many cities seek to emulate.
However, this equilibrium is increasingly fragile. As the city grows, its population is projected to triple between 2000 and 2030, while urban sprawl is gradually expanding Quelimane’s catchment area (Melchiorri et al., 2024[17]). Figure 1.7 also shows that the growing distance from the city centre is diminishing the practicality of taxi bikes. In peripheral areas, motorcycles are emerging as a preferred mode due to their range and speed, reinforcing sprawl and increasing emissions.
Moreover, rising incomes among middle, and high-income groups are driving demand for private cars, including SUVs and pickups. These larger vehicles are often chosen for their ability to navigate poor road conditions but contribute to road degradation and displace safer, low-carbon alternatives such as cycling and walking (as in the case of Beira). Environmental risks compound these pressures. As climate change increases flood exposure – projected to affect over 20% of Quelimane’s population by 2030 – road infrastructure suffers, reducing the reliability of taxi bikes and threatening their viability.
Quelimane’s transport system shows that sustainable modes can dominate when enabled by compact urban form and community acceptance. However, the system remains vulnerable to rising motorisation, infrastructure neglect, and climate risks. Safeguarding this model will require targeted infrastructure for non-motorised transport, resilient planning, and active policies to shift the mindset and aspirations of middle- and high-income groups as the city evolves.
Transforming urban mobility and spatial development in intermediary African cities requires more than technical adjustments. It demands a shift in the underlying systems that shape behaviours, incentives, and outcomes. High-leverage points (HLPs) offer entry points for such change. HLPs are places within a complex system where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes everywhere else (Meadows, 2009[24]). In the context of this report, HLPs are used to identify critical areas within urban and transport systems where targeted action can generate significant, lasting transformation.
Framing HLPs as areas for transformational change allows policymakers to reorient the urban narrative: moving from reactive, trend-driven decision-making to a more proactive, systemic approach. Grouped here into four narrative arcs, each HLP reveals how a specific pattern to shift can be pivoted into a sustainable and inclusive pathway. Rather than reinforcing existing patterns of congestion, sprawl, or inequity, they offer decision-makers a new storyline, one that links climate action to accessibility, and well-being.
The four narrative arcs show that analysing and comparing systemic structures across cities can help understand broader necessary changes that are shared across contexts, while also helping to identify how specific actions and focus within these wider systemic changes and narratives may need to be tailored in each case.
Note: The casual loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in the opposite direction. This causal loop diagram illustrates how efforts to replace paratransit with sustainable active modes in Quelimane interact with urban dynamics. As road infrastructure improves, including public space for active modes, political will and incentives for taxi bikes grow, increasing their numbers (B4). This has been key for limiting the number of paratransit services. However, expanded road capacity and catchment areas reduce density, making private motorcycles and SUVs more attractive (R3). These trends contribute to urban sprawl, weakening active transport systems. Meanwhile, climate shocks and informal settlement patterns influence political choices, shaping investment in road upgrades. The diagram underscores the tension between expanding mixed-traffic infrastructure and promoting compact, active-mode-friendly urban development.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Arc 1: From roads that divide to streets that connect
The pattern to shift: Large and/or growing road infrastructure fuels car use and spatial fragmentation.
The pivot:
Kiambu & Nakuru: Make investment in transport infrastructure a lever for sustainable use of public space.
Beira: Allocating road space strategically to prevent congestion and induce the use of sustainable modes.
Quelimane: Institutionalising space for active transport to sustain Quelimane’s mobility culture.
The new narrative: Streets become enablers of social life, clean air, and sustainable accessibility, rather than channels of congestion, pollution, and stress.
Arc 2: From moving fast to easily accessing places that matter
The pattern to shift: Cities are spreading outward. Services and job opportunities are too far apart. Motorbikes and paratransit services (matatus, boda boda) become a default, not because they are optimal, but because walking, cycling, or using mass public transport becomes impossible.
The pivot:
Kiambu & Nakuru: Avoid a system intense in mobility and poor accessibility.
Beira: Upgrading urban areas to enhance density and accessibility.
Quelimane: Integrating compact urban growth with public transport and public space.
The new narrative: Cities grow not by stretching people thinner, but by bringing people, jobs, and services closer together.
Arc 3: From fragmented fixes to coherent public mobility
The pattern to shift: Informal transport is filling gaps left by weak mobility systems, but it is locking cities into chaotic, low-quality services.
The pivot:
Kiambu & Nakuru: Getting public transport out of the low attractiveness trap. Transitioning from unplanned paratransit to an integrated system of mass and feeder (sustainable) services, in ways that can bring the incumbent on board.
Beira: Investing in mass public transport and active modes to avoid dependency on paratransit.
Quelimane: Enhancing the role of taxi bikes in an integrated public transport system.
The new narrative: Public transport brings together a suite of sustainable alternatives and becomes the spine of the city – efficient, inclusive, and designed to scale – but also opens the possibility of re-orienting urban growth to avoid sprawl and promote access.
Arc 4: From carbon dreams to aspirational sustainability
The pattern to shift: Cars are symbols of success. Sustainable options are seen as second-best.
The pivot:
Kiambu & Nakuru: Promoting a mind shift around progress and building on mass public transport aspirations.
Beira: Reimagining a future with sustainable modes and liberated space for nature and creativity.
Quelimane: Redefining private mobility aspirations by positioning bicycles as a symbol of modernity.
The new narrative: Bicycles and buses become badges of progress, not poverty, and are recognised as enablers of life-quality and resilience.
With the identification of high-leverage points, the next step is to translate these insights into coherent policy action. This section outlines practical pathways for Kiambu, Nakuru, Beira and Quelimane to activate their potential for transformational change. While the recommendations are tailored to local contexts, they converge around shared priorities. For instance, rebalancing road space to serve broader public purposes, integrating land use and mobility to enhance accessibility and proximity, investing early in sustainable modes of transport, strengthening governance to support coherent, inclusive systems and making strategies that address car-centric mental models and aspirations. Taken together, these actions provide a way forward for operationalising the insights of the case studies in support of low-carbon, resilient, and inclusive urban development.
Nakuru and Kiambu: Leveraging investments to shape sustainable futures
Aligning infrastructure with systemic goals: Both Nakuru and Kiambu retain the opportunity to shape the physical systems that will underpin their future mobility and spatial patterns. Rather than locking into car-dependent development models, these cities should ensure that infrastructure investment – particularly in roads – supports sustainable mobility from the outset. Redirecting infrastructure flows to support walking, cycling, and public transport will generate long-term benefits in accessibility, inclusivity, and environmental sustainability. Strategic investments in non-motorised transport (NMT) infrastructure and mass transit can avoid reproducing induced demand and the costly reversals OECD countries have faced due to highly locked-in car-centred systems.
Reframing road infrastructure as public space: Rather than expanding road capacity for cars in response to congestion, Kiambu and Nakuru should treat road development as an opportunity to reshape urban space as they grow. Roads should be developed to serve multiple functions: mobility, recreation, commerce, and social interaction. The focus should shift to complete streets that accommodate all users and contribute to vibrant, accessible neighbourhoods. Traffic-calming measures, car-free zones, and prioritised infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists can help rebalance urban space and foster healthier, more liveable and greener environments.
Planning for proximity: Rapid urban expansion has contributed to growing distances and sprawl, particularly in Nakuru. In both counties, development should be reoriented towards promoting proximity and mixed-use zoning. New housing projects and infrastructure must prioritise connectivity to jobs, services, and public amenities. This entails aligning land-use planning with transport investments and ensuring development is guided by accessibility principles. Informal economic activity, such as street vending, should be integrated into formal planning to enhance inclusivity and coherence in public space use.
Mobilising budgets for transformation: Both counties must realign budgetary priorities to support sustainable mobility and spatial development. In Nakuru, 84% of planned investments focus on housing and transport, yet transport expenditure prioritises road expansion over sustainable alternatives. In Kiambu, road transport receives substantial funding, but little is allocated to NMT or mass transit. Both counties should reallocate resources to develop NMT infrastructure, support compact housing development, and enhance public space. Mixed-use development and climate-aligned housing projects could be supported through green funds and development assistance and should guide the development of housing units already reflected in planning documents.
Reforming public transport governance: Introducing mass public transport, such as bus rapid transit (BRT), will require comprehensive governance reform. Current systems are dominated by informal services with limited co-ordination. Transitioning to structured high-capacity systems requires institutional redesign, sustainable financing, and dialogue with incumbent operators. Concessions and tariff policies must be rule-based and transparent. Recognising transport as a public good is essential. Lessons from Latin America highlight the need for dedicated regulatory bodies and inclusive negotiations with paratransit operators.
Embedding monitoring and communication: To ensure implementation aligns with long-term visions, cities should establish clear indicators to track progress. Indicators could focus on accessibility, mode share, proximity, and public space allocation. Targets such as travel time reductions via sustainable modes, or increased green space coverage in built-up areas (including roads) can also serve as benchmarks for action. Transparent communication and participatory planning – supported by public campaigns and co-design processes – will be essential to build support and create and operationalise sustainable mobility narratives.
Beira: Seizing the window for spatial transformation
Reallocating road space: Beira’s current layout with a rich endowment of public space offers an opportunity to act before congestion and car dependency take hold. The city should reallocate road space to prioritise buses, cycling, and walking, particularly in the CBD. Acting early will avoid the financial and political costs of later retrofitting. Public space improvements should integrate non-motorised mobility with green infrastructure and public amenities.
Revitalising the urban core: Beira’s underutilised central area offers potential for densification and mixed-use development. Many buildings remain vacant or underused. A mapping of available infrastructure and land could guide housing and service development, particularly for low-income populations. Transforming vacant areas into mixed-use housing and activity hubs can limit sprawl, reduce infrastructure costs, and support a more vibrant CBD.
Integrating transport and land use: Expansion into low-risk zones must be planned in co‑ordination with mobility infrastructure. Paratransit services are still in their early stages in Beira, providing a window to plan for a more integrated system. Public transport investments, zoning regulations, and mobility planning must work in tandem to ensure accessibility and spatial equity.
Enhancing climate resilience: Nature-based solutions must be central to Beira’s development strategy. The Chiveve River rehabilitation project shows the potential for green infrastructure to reduce flood risk while supporting urban vitality. However, future initiatives must be accessible for all, particularly low-income groups, by avoiding gated models where access to restored green areas needs to be paid for. Projects should be co-designed with communities and integrated into wider strategies that bring together climate resilience, sustainable accessibility and inclusive urban regeneration. Current projects can serve as inspiration for wider city transformation.
Quelimane: Consolidating a bicycle-centred urban model
Institutionalising active mobility: Quelimane’s widespread use of bicycles and taxi bikes offers a rare opportunity to embed non-motorised transport at the core of the city’s development model. The city must now formalise this mobility pattern through legislation, investment in infrastructure, and planning mechanisms. Wider bike corridors and low-speed streets can be institutionalised and legitimised if part of co-designed complete streets and help lock in accessibility benefits while improving safety and liveability.
Shaping mobility aspirations: To preserve the cycling culture, the city must counter the rising aspiration for private cars. Communications strategies and behavioural campaigns should promote bicycles as modern, aspirational transport options. Middle-income groups should be engaged through inclusive public space planning and the development of appealing cycling infrastructure.
Preparing for multimodality: As Quelimane expands, future mass transit systems must be planned early to ensure they complement, rather than displace, active mobility. Future corridors should be integrated with NMT networks to avoid car-oriented growth. Governance arrangements must be strengthened, and sustainable financing mechanisms explored, to prepare for a seamless multimodal system.
Supporting a local bicycle economy: Quelimane could reinforce its sustainable mobility model by fostering a local bicycle manufacturing and maintenance industry. This would reduce reliance on imports, create jobs, and strengthen the local economy. Public-private partnerships, feasibility studies, and targeted financing can build the foundation for a cycling-centred economy that aligns with the city’s broader development goals.
References
[13] Abuya, D. (2019), “Management of the Effects of Land Use Changes on Urban Infrastructure Capacity: A Case Study of Ruaka Town, Kiambu County, Kenya”, Journal of Geographic Information System, Vol. 8, pp. 158-190.
[5] African Development Bank Group (2024), African Economic Outlook 2024 Driving Africa’s Transformation The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture, African Development Bank Group.
[8] Cities Alliance (2017), Urbanization in Mozambique: Assessing Actors, Processes, and Impacts of urban growth, Cities Alliance.
[11] County Government of Kiambu (2022), County Integrated Development Plan 2023-2027, County Government of Kiambu.
[15] County Government of Nakuru (2025), Nakuru City, https://nakuru.go.ke/nakuru-city/.
[19] Gulyani, S. (2019), Are They Really Being Served : Assessing Effective Infrastructure Access and Quality in 15 Kenyan Cities (English), World Bank Group, Washington, DC.
[1] IEA-EDGAR (2022), CO2 emissions of all world countries - 2022 Report, Publications Office of the European Union, https://doi.org/10.2760/07904.
[3] ITF (2023), Transport data and statistics, International Transport Forum, https://www.itf-oecd.org/transport-data-and-statistics (accessed on 16 January 2024).
[12] Maina, E. and M. Waiganjo (2024), “Urban Sprawl’s Impact on Land Use in Kenya: A Systematic Review of Literature”, African Journal of Empirical Research, Vol. 5, pp. 384-392, https://ajernet.net.
[24] Meadows, D. (2009), Thinking in systems: a primer, Earthscan.
[17] Melchiorri, M. et al. (2024), Stats in the City the GHSL Urban Centre Database 2025, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/3046391.
[21] Mendiate, C. and B. Robinson (2019), Quelimane, Mozambique: Strengthening Bicycle Culture In Africa’s Cycling Capital, Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative, https://transformative-mobility.org/multimedia/quelimane-mozambique-strengthening-bicycle-culture-in-africas-cycling-capital/ (accessed on 24 October 2024).
[16] Mogire, D., J. Kagendo and R. Kweyu (2022), “Effects of Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Population in Urban Centers on Land Use Arrangement: A Case of Nakuru Town, Kenya”, African Journal of Educational and Social Science Research, Vol. 10/3, pp. 127-144, https://doi.org/10.4314/ajessr.v10i3.4.
[18] Municipality of Quelimane (2023), Plano de Estrutura Urbana do Município da Cidade de Quelimane (PEUMCQ), Municipality of Quelimane, Quelimane.
[23] Nkurunziza, A. et al. (2012), “Examining the potential for modal change: Motivators and barriers for bicycle commuting in Dar-es-salaam”, Transport Policy, Vol. 24, pp. 249-259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.09.002.
[9] OECD (2022), Redesigning Ireland’s Transport for Net Zero: Towards Systems that Work for People and the Planet, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b798a4c1-en.
[6] OECD/SWAC (2024), Africapolis (database), OECD Publishing.
[22] Runhungwe, S. and J. Ferrao (2022), “Sociodemographic and Economic Profile of Bicycle-Taxi Riders and Revenue Modelling in Quelimane, Mozambique”, Preprints, https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0130.v1.
[20] Salon, D. and S. Gulyani (2019), “Commuting in Urban Kenya: Unpacking Travel Demand in Large and Small Kenyan Cities”, Sustainability, Vol. 11, p. 3823, https://doi.org/10.3390/SU11143823.
[10] UN-Habitat (2025), Accelerating sustainable urban futures: A practical guide for challenge-driven innovation in cities, United Nations Human Settlements Programme.
[14] Willkomm, M., A. Follmann and P. Dannenberg (2021), “Between Replacement and Intensification: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Different Land Use Types of Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture under Rapid Urban Growth in Nakuru, Kenya”, Professional Geographer, Vol. 73/2, pp. 186-199, https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2020.1835500.
[2] World Bank (2025), National Accounts, World Development Indicators, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (accessed on 16 January 2024).
[4] World Bank (2023), Mozambique Economic Update : Shaping the Future - Why Services Matter for Growth and Jobs, World Bank, http://www.worldbank.org.
[7] World Bank (2017), Republic of Mozambique, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ar/813461525417156845/pdf/Greater-Maputo-urban-poverty-and-inclusive-growth.pdf (accessed on 26 November 2024).