Climate Mitigation in Intermediary Cities

Policies for Systemic Change in Kenya and Mozambique

Report

24 December 2025

3. A systemic approach for climate mitigation in Beira and Quelimane

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Abstract

This chapter examines the urban and mobility systems of Beira and Quelimane using a systems-based framework adapted to intermediary cities in developing countries. It introduces demographic and spatial trends, institutional conditions, and policy frameworks guiding urban growth. Drawing on local stakeholder engagement, it presents 2050 visions for both cities and analyses how these visions differ from existing planning and mobility realities. Through systems mapping and causal loop diagrams, the chapter uncovers dynamics that shape current and future urban patterns, including those related to transport choices, infrastructure use, and land development. Special attention is given to the role of informal settlements, climate vulnerability, and the role of non-motorised transport in promoting sustainable mobility. The chapter also investigates how current infrastructure decisions may influence longer-term accessibility, spatial form, and environmental outcomes.

A critical moment for Mozambique to think in systems

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A systems approach can support Mozambique’s medium-sized cities in shaping a more sustainable development pathway from an early stage. As Mozambique undergoes its rural-to-urban transition, there is a risk that a rapid increase in the stock of motorised vehicles will result in congested streets, worsening air pollution, rising greenhouse gas emissions, urban sprawl, and uncontrolled land conversion – all these risks being seen as unavoidable consequences of urbanisation and economic progress. This has been the trajectory of many countries and cities worldwide, where policies have often focused on mitigating the negative effects of carbon-intensive growth rather than addressing the underlying structural factors that drive these trends.

These environmental and social challenges can, however, be avoided. They stem from a series of policy decisions, investments, planning choices, and broader societal influences, such as market incentives, regulations, and education. These elements shape the way cities expand, how infrastructure is developed, and which mobility options are affordable and accessible to residents. In the case of Mozambique, adapting to and coping with climate change is a challenge that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities to flooding, coastal erosion, and extreme weather events. Addressing these issues requires a systemic approach that integrates climate resilience into urban planning, infrastructure investment, and governance frameworks. By making deliberate choices – today - that prioritise sustainability and climate adaptation, Mozambique’s cities can avoid the pitfalls of unsustainable urbanisation and lay the groundwork for a resilient and inclusive future.

As in the case of Kenya, this chapter presents the results of applying the systems-based methodology introduced in Chapter 1 to the cities of Beira and Quelimane. It outlines the visions for a sustainable future by 2050 and maps the forces currently shaping their urban and transport systems. The chapter identifies high-leverage points where well-designed interventions can redirect development trajectories towards more inclusive, low-carbon, and climate-resilient outcomes. Drawing on participatory processes, it also presents policy ideas co-developed with local stakeholders. These findings underpin the recommendations in Chapter 4, which aim to support Beira and Quelimane in realising their visions and inform current policy action to avoid lock-in to car dependency and emissions-intensive growth.

Mozambique’s urban population will continue to increase in the next decades

Mozambique is set to experience rapid urbanisation in the coming decades, leading to a significant rise in the number of urban dwellers. As shown in Figure 3.1, approximately 12.1 million people lived in urban areas in 2020, representing around 39% of the total population. Projections indicate that by 2050, the urban population will reach 28.5 million, accounting for 50% of the country’s total population. In other words, Mozambique’s urban population is expected to grow by nearly 80% over the next three decades. This urban expansion is primarily driven by natural population growth, although rural-to-urban migration also plays a role (Mahumane and Mulder, 2022[1]). However, urbanisation in Mozambique is not a linear process and will be shaped by various factors, including natural disasters, armed conflicts, and the relocation of populations in response to economic activities (UN-Habitat, 2023[2]).

Figure 3.1. Mozambique’s urban population will continue to grow in the next decades
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Urban built-up area is expanding much faster than urban population

Mozambique is expected to experience rapid land-use change and higher CO₂ emissions. Urbanisation is progressing at different speeds worldwide, but Africa is urbanising at an exceptionally fast rate (OECD/SWAC, 2020[4]). This is also the case for Mozambique. Figure 3.2 shows Mozambique’s projected urban expansion, measured as the increase in built-up area, for every five-year period between 2020 and 2050. Between 2020 and 2025, the total built-up area is expected to grow by 25%. Over the next three decades, this expansion will accelerate, tripling the country’s urban footprint. By 2050, Mozambique’s built-up area will increase by 213% (compared to 2020 level), from 4 244 km² to 13 272 km². This is more than twice the expected urban population growth. If continued, this rapid growth will create major challenges for the government, increasing pressure on urban infrastructure and basic services provision (World Bank, 2017[5]).

Mozambique’s rapid expansion of urban areas surpassing population growth presents significant challenges for sustainable development. This spatial growth process often leads to urban sprawl, escalating infrastructure and service delivery costs, and reducing public transport efficiency (Cities Alliance, 2017[6]). Moreover, low-density development consumes agricultural land, disrupts ecosystems, and increases vulnerability to climate risks (such as flooding), while unplanned urban expansion can also exacerbate socio-economic inequalities by relegating low-income communities to poorly serviced peripheries, limiting their access to employment, education, and healthcare (World Bank, 2017[7]).

As urban areas expand, managing them will become increasingly complex. This results from the environmental and social challenges associated with rapid urban growth, as well as an increasing number of stakeholders involved and the need for more robust governance mechanisms (Cohen, 2006[8]). Indeed, local governments will need to address a wide range of urban issues, including traffic congestion, inadequate public services, and environmental pollution (Satterthwaite, 2017[9]). These pressures can strain municipal capacities, making it difficult to ensure efficient service delivery and sustainable urban development. In this context, strategic urban planning will be essential to promote compact, connected, and resilient cities. Without such measures, rapid urban expansion may undermine economic productivity, elevate CO₂ emissions, and widen disparities in living conditions.

It is important to highlight that urbanisation, when well-planned and managed, can generate a wide range of positive outcomes, including improved access to services, economic opportunities, and more efficient infrastructure. Compact urban forms, strong public transport systems, and safe non-motorised mobility can reduce emissions and enhance quality of life. The challenge arises when urbanisation occurs rapidly and without adequate planning, as is the case in many growing cities in Mozambique. In such contexts, uncoordinated expansion often leads to car-dependent growth, increased congestion, and rising greenhouse gas emissions. The goal, therefore, is not to slow urbanisation, but to shape it intentionally, leveraging its potential while avoiding patterns that lock cities into unsustainable and high-emission pathways.

Figure 3.2. Built-up area will triple in the next three decades
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Mozambique’s growing vehicle fleet is contributing to GHG emissions

Mozambique’s transport sector is the largest contributor to CO₂ emissions. This has been mostly driven by the predominant use of fossil fuels (IEA, 2022[10]). Over the past two decades, emissions from transport have increased sharply, rising from 0.85 Mt in 2000 to 4.34 Mt in 2022. This represents a more than fivefold increase, highlighting the sector’s growing environmental impact. As shown in Figure 3.3 Panel A, transport emissions have consistently exceeded those of other sectors, more than doubling the combined emissions from industry, residential use, and electricity and heat production. By 2022, the transport sector emitted over four times more CO₂ than the industrial sector (1.03 Mt) and nearly 40 times more than the residential sector (0.12 Mt). The electricity and heat production sector saw an increase in emissions over time, reaching 1.68 Mt in 2022, yet it remained significantly below transport emissions.

Despite fluctuations in economic growth, Mozambique has experienced a steady increase in the number of motorised vehicles, including cars, two- and three-wheelers. Figure 3.3 Panel B shows that, between 2009 and 2020, Mozambique’s GDP declined from USD 531 to USD 454 (PPP), reflecting economic volatility and external shocks, particularly due to the country’s reliance on extractive industries such as gas production (World Bank, 2023[11]; African Development Bank Group, 2024[12]). A significant slowdown occurred between 2015 and 2016, exacerbating economic instability. Nevertheless, vehicle ownership continued to increase during this period. The stock of cars grew by almost 50%, from 204 000 in 2009 to 300 000 in 2016. Similarly, the number of two- and three-wheelers nearly doubled, rising from 45 000 in 2009 to 84 000 in 2020. This trend suggests that while economic growth has been inconsistent, the demand for motorised transport has continued to rise, particularly for private cars. The sustained increase in two- and three-wheelers may reflect their role as an affordable and efficient transport option in Mozambique. Unlike cars, motorcycles offer lower costs and greater flexibility, making them an attractive choice for mobility, especially in low-income settings.

Figure 3.3. CO₂ emissions by sector and number of vehicles and GDP per capita in Mozambique
Copy link to Figure 3.3. CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by sector and number of vehicles and GDP per capita in Mozambique

Evidence from both OECD and developing countries suggests that the usage of motorised vehicles evolves along with economic development. In advanced economies, car travel growth has slowed or declined due to ageing populations, urbanisation, shifting social attitudes, and improved transport alternatives (e.g. Japan and UK) (ITF/OECD, 2013[15]). In contrast, developing economies continue to experience rising car use driven by income growth and urban expansion. Moreover, in the case of some developing countries, there is a substitution effect between cars and motorcycles also associated to income levels. Economic growth initially increases two- and three-wheeler ownership at lower income levels, but accelerates when they serve as essential tools for economic activity, such as in the informal transport sector (Gota and Huizenga, 2022[16]). This peaks when income reaches a moderate level; beyond this threshold, car ownership rises sharply, overtaking motorcycles as the dominant mode of private transport (Pongthanaisawan and Sorapipatana, 2010[17]).

To illustrate the relationship between economic development and car/motorcycle usage, Figure 3.4 compares the trajectories of Kenya and Mozambique. Contrary to Mozambique, Kenya has experienced sustained economic growth in the last decades. Figure 3.4 Panel B shows that, between 2005 and 2020, Kenya’s GDP per capita nearly quadrupled from USD 523 to USD 1 970 (PPP), while car ownership rose more steadily, from 9.3 per 1 000 inhabitants in 2005 to 23.2 in 2020, in line with consistent GDP per capita growth. During the same period of time, two- and three-wheelers surged from 1.6 to 38.2 per 1 000 inhabitants (Figure 3.4 Panel A). The latter is the result of a combination of factors, including a zero-rated import duty on motorcycles of up to 250cc that started in 2008 (Kivoi, 2022[18]), as well as the lack of mass public transport services, which opened a market space for paratransit services, such as boda boda (motorcycle taxis). Kenya’s experience shows that rising income, combined with policies that promote motorised transport, and a strong demand for informal transport services, have contributed to the rapid adoption of two- and three-wheelers and an increasing stock of cars.

What does this mean for Mozambique? First, that if its economy stabilises, and urban transport demand increases in line with forecasted urban population growth and spatial expansion, it is likely that the stock of cars will continue to increase in next decades. Second, it is plausible that the stock of two- and three -wheelers experiences fast growth soon, especially if the demand for paratransit services increases along with fast urban expansion as in the case of Kenya. Third, this is not an inevitable, immutable pattern. It is possible to have much less motorcycle and car dependency if cities plan better and intervene to change the structure of their systems to shape mobility trends.

Figure 3.4. Two- and three-wheelers and cars relative to income in Kenya and Mozambique
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Mozambique must adapt urbanisation strategies to build a climate-resilient future

Mozambique is among the countries most affected by natural disasters globally. According to the Global Climate Index, in 2021, it was the most climate-vulnerable country in Africa (Eckstein, Künzel and Schäfer, 2021[19]). Approximately 60% of the population resides along the country’s extensive coastline, where climate shocks cause severe damage to critical infrastructure, affecting millions of people (Pswarayi-Riddihough, 2023[20]). Indeed, recurrent climate shocks, particularly cyclones and floods, have far-reaching consequences, damaging homes, businesses, and vital public infrastructure. These events have led to widespread displacement, forcing thousands of residents to leave their homes, with both urban and rural communities severely affected (Neves et al., 2023[21]). As climate change intensifies, Mozambique faces growing challenges in building resilience and ensuring sustainable urban development, particularly in vulnerable coastal areas.

Sofala and Zambezia are among the Mozambican provinces most severely impacted by hurricanes. Figure 3.5 shows that between 2017 and 2024, more than 1.6 million people were affected in Sofala, while Zambezia recorded 1.2 million affected individuals. This also translated into extensive damage to infrastructure, particularly housing. During the same period, the province of Sofala recorded the highest number of affected houses, with over 154 000 partially destroyed and more than 106 000 completely destroyed. The provinces of Zambezia also experienced significant destruction, with 88 828 houses partially damaged and 132 366 entirely lost (INGD, 2022[22]). The scale of damage underscores the urgent need for resilient housing solutions, improved urban planning, and disaster preparedness measures.

Figure 3.5. Mozambique’s population and people affected by hurricanes per Province.
Copy link to Figure 3.5. Mozambique’s population and people affected by hurricanes per Province.

As two of Mozambique’s largest and fastest-growing coastal intermediary cities, Beira and Quelimane remain highly exposed to climate shocks. Between 2017 and 2024, Beira saw approximately 549 125 people affected by hurricanes, while Quelimane recorded around 120 787 affected residents. Concrete recent examples include the cyclones Idai and Freddy. Cyclone Idai struck Beira on 14 March 2019, causing widespread destruction. Winds exceeding 150 km/h and a 2.5 metre storm surge damaged 90% of the city, disrupting infrastructure, power, and transport. More than half a million people were affected, with many displaced or living in structurally unsafe housing (WMO, 2019[23]; CARE, 2019[24]). Similarly, cyclone Freddy made landfall near Quelimane on 11 March 2023, bringing winds of up to 175 km/h and torrential rainfall. Severe flooding affected low-lying areas, exacerbated by poor drainage and rapid urbanisation. The storm displaced thousands, damaged infrastructure, and underscored the city’s vulnerability to extreme weather (UNDRR, 2023[25]). The scale of displacement and infrastructure loss highlights the severe economic disruptions and the urgent need for resilience-building measures.

Mozambique has developed climate policy frameworks from international commitments to local institutions

Over the past two decades, Mozambique has progressively established institutional frameworks to effectively address climate change (Figure 3.6). Beginning with its Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2003, the country undertook its first greenhouse gas inventories, carried out a comprehensive assessment of climate vulnerabilities, and identified national priorities for managing climate impacts. This process was advanced by the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2008, which outlined urgent adaptation measures aimed at strengthening national capacities.

These initiatives culminated in the development of the National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (NCCAMS) for 2013‑2025, now serving as Mozambique’s central climate policy framework. Initially prioritising adaptation, NCCAMS has since broadened its scope to encompass low-carbon development pathways, capacity building for climate change management, and improving access to international climate finance (World Bank, 2023[26]).

Significant progress in adaptation planning has been achieved at both national and local levels. Since its inception in 2016, Mozambique’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) has offered a structured approach to integrating climate resilience into the country’s broader development strategy. The NAP process aims to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts through targeted adaptation measures, aligned with national development priorities and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A central feature of the NAP is its decentralised approach, promoting Local Adaptation Plans (LAPs). By October 2021, LAPs had been formulated in 123 districts, marking substantial advancement in locally driven adaptation. Additionally, the NAP strategically prioritises critical sectors – such as agriculture, infrastructure, and health – to foster cross-sector collaboration and enhance resilience at all administrative levels (Ministry of Land and Environment, 2023[27]).

Figure 3.6. Evolution of Mozambique’s climate policy
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Aligned with NCCAMS, Mozambique actively engages in international climate processes. This includes its National Strategy for REDD+ (2016‑2030), ratification of the Paris Agreement in 2018, and submission of an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the period 2020‑2025. The updated NDC specifies clear mitigation targets and comprehensive adaptation strategies, committing to a conditional cumulative emission reduction of approximately 40 MtCO₂e by 2025, and an ambitious conditional reduction target of approximately 76.5 MtCO₂e by 2030, contingent upon international assistance. Adaptation remains a critical priority due to Mozambique’s pronounced vulnerability, particularly in major coastal cities such as Maputo, Beira, and Quelimane, which face significant climate risks (Government of Mozambique, 2021[28]). In 2022, Mozambique submitted its Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, providing updated insights on climate vulnerabilities and impacts observed from 2000 to 2018, emission and removal estimates for the period 1995‑2004, and implemented and planned climate actions. The communication also highlights key constraints related to financial resources, technology, and capacity-building needs, crucial for the effective implementation of the Convention.

Mozambique is still building the necessary institutions for addressing climate change

Mozambique has progressively established institutional arrangements to support co-ordinated climate action across sectors and levels of government. The Ministry of Land and Environment (MTA), through its National Directorate of Climate Change, leads the co-ordination of national climate policy and chairs the Inter-Institutional Group on Climate Change (GIIMC). This platform brings together representatives from key ministries, public agencies, civil society, the private sector, academia and the media to support cross-sectoral dialogue and alignment (MECCE, 2025[29]; Government of Mozambique, 2021[28]). Several complementary institutions reinforce this co-ordination effort. The Climate Change Knowledge Management Centre (CGCMC) facilitates technical capacity-building and knowledge exchange, while the Climate Change Network promotes stakeholder engagement and collaboration on climate-related initiatives.

At the strategic level, the National Council for Sustainable Development (NCSD) provides high-level guidance and promotes coherence between climate objectives and broader development strategies (Ministry of Land and Environment, 2023[27]). Climate resilience has also been integrated into disaster risk management. Law 15/2014 on Disaster Management sets out a legal framework for prevention, preparedness and response to climate-related hazards. It mandates the identification of high-risk areas, the approval of contingency plans based on climate forecasts, and the establishment of early warning systems and a dedicated Disaster Management Fund. Although adopted over a decade ago, the law remains a cornerstone of Mozambique’s institutional response to climate risk, ensuring the legal and financial mechanisms necessary for emergency planning and risk reduction (Ministry of Land and Environment, 2023[27]).

Climate objectives are now regularly reflected in Mozambique’s five-year development plans and sectoral strategies. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), in partnership with MTA, plays a central role in mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation priorities into national budgeting and economic planning processes, in line with the NCCAMS and updated NDC (Government of Mozambique, 2021[28]).

Taking systems thinking to Beira and Quelimane

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Intermediary cities are key for ensuring a sustainable and equitable urban transformation in Mozambique. Mozambique’s urban system is marked by a strong concentration of population and economic activity in a few key cities, with Maputo as the dominant metropolis. In 2025, Maputo is expected to reach over 3.5 million inhabitants, reinforcing its position as the country’s economic and administrative hub (Figure 3.7). However, intermediary cities such as Beira and Quelimane are crucial to Mozambique’s sustainable development and climate resilience. Beira, the second-largest city, is expected to have a population of approximately 627 000 in 2025 and plays a strategic role as a transport and trade hub due to its port. It also contributes significantly to the national economy, accounting for approximately 5.5% of Mozambique’s GDP in 2020. Quelimane, with a projected population of 522 000, is another critical urban centre, known for its coastal economy and growing initiatives in sustainable mobility and climate adaptation. Strengthening the resilience and sustainability of intermediary cities like Beira and Quelimane will be essential for mitigating climate risks and fostering balanced urban development in Mozambique.

Beira and Quelimane

Beira: A dynamic commercial hub that is increasingly challenged by climate change

Beira, the capital of Sofala Province, is a vital coastal city in central Mozambique, strategically positioned along the Indian Ocean at the mouth of the Pungwe River (Figure 3.7). Its location makes it a key logistical and transportation hub, serving not only Mozambique but also landlocked neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia, with well-established rail and road connections.

Figure 3.7. Mozambique’s urban centres
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Beira is Mozambique’s second-largest city. Founded in the late 19th century as a colonial administrative centre, Beira has since evolved into a dynamic urban hub. In the last decades, the city has experienced significant urban growth. In 2020, its population was estimated at 417 000; by 2025, it is expected to grow further to 627 000 (Melchiorri et al., 2024[30]). Like many rapidly growing coastal cities, it faces complex development challenges, including urban sprawl, lack of resilient infrastructure, and the need for an adequate transport system.

Beira is particularly vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, notably cyclones and rising sea levels. As discussed in the previous section, cyclone Idai in 2019 underscored the city’s exposure to climate-related risks, causing extensive damage to infrastructure, homes, and livelihoods. In response, efforts to enhance climate resilience have become a priority, with initiatives focusing on flood management, coastal protection, and sustainable urban planning.

Moving forward, it is important for Beira’ to balance economic growth with climate actions that allow the city to adapt to climate change, while avoiding carbon lock-in. Investments in resilient infrastructure, efficient public services, and environmental protection will play a key role in securing a more sustainable future for the city and its residents.

Quelimane: An innovative urban centre at the forefront of climate action

Quelimane, the capital of Zambezia Province, is a key urban centre in central Mozambique, located along the Rio dos Bons Sinais, just inland from the Indian Ocean (see Figure 3.7). Its economy is driven by commerce, agriculture – particularly sugar and copra production – and fishing. However, the government remains the largest source of formal employment in the city.

In 2023, Quelimane’s population was estimated at over 460 000, with a projected annual growth rate of 2.7% over the next decade (Municipality of Quelimane, 2023[31]). This growth is fuelled by both natural population increase and internal migration from Zambezia Province. As a result, Quelimane faces significant urban planning challenges, including the need for sustainable growth management, improved infrastructure, and enhanced access to basic services. Additionally, its low-lying geography makes it highly vulnerable to flooding, a threat intensified by climate change and inadequate drainage systems.

Quelimane is widely recognised for its strong cycling culture, which distinguishes it from other Mozambican cities. Bicycles are a primary mode of transport, favoured due to the city’s flat terrain, its affordability compared to motorised transport, and an ingrained local cycling tradition. This widespread use of bicycles has been largely promoted by the city’s leadership since 2015, with efforts to encourage cycling as an affordable transport solution and a means of livelihood creation for its growing population. The city is home to an estimated 5 500 to 6 000 taxi bikes, providing an essential service to residents while reinforcing Quelimane’s identity as a cycling city (Municipality of Quelimane, 2023[31]).

Moving forward, Quelimane’s ability to manage urban expansion, enhance climate resilience, and further develop sustainable mobility solutions will be critical in shaping its future as a liveable and inclusive city.

The following sections present the results of the four-step methodology applied to Beira and Quelimane. The first section defines the goals of a sustainable urban system. The second section examines the key dynamics driving car dependence and carbon lock-in. The third section identifies high-leverage points where targeted interventions can lead to meaningful change. The fourth section explores policy actions co-designed with local authorities and stakeholders. Finally, the report offers recommendations to guide the transition towards more sustainable, low-carbon, and resilient urban and transport systems.

Envision: What does a sustainable city look like in 2050?

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Transforming transport and urban systems begins with re-evaluating and redefining the outcomes we aspire to achieve. To this end, it is essential to recognise that our mental models have played a pivotal role in shaping the current system. These mental models – simplified constructs of how we perceive and interpret the world – dictate our expectations of how systems should function and what they should achieve. Thus, they greatly influence the policies we implement, what we measure as progress, and the systems we develop. The outcomes produced by these systems then reinforce our beliefs about what is possible or desirable, creating a feedback loop that can hinder systemic change. Therefore, it is crucial to challenge the paradigm of a system that is not yielding the desired results and clearly define the expected outcomes of a new, improved system.

Paradigms set the objectives that systems aim to achieve. The paradigm of a system refers to the underlying set of assumptions, beliefs, and values that shape how a system is designed, operates, and evolves. A widespread belief influencing transport policies globally is that enhancing mobility – characterised by physical movement and speed – automatically improves people’s well-being (Ferdman, 2021[32]; Clark et al., 2020[33]). However, this assumption warrants closer scrutiny. People’s well-being is not maximised by covering long distances quickly but by having easy access to essential destinations such as workplaces, healthcare facilities, social venues, and basic amenities like grocery stores (Maket, Kanó and Vas, 2024[34]). Consequently, prioritising mobility as the main goal of transport systems has led not only to environmental challenges but also to the development of urban areas that require extensive travel yet lack proximity and accessibility.

Addressing the challenges faced by cities like Beira and Quelimane requires a paradigm shift. This involves reassessing existing goals and policy decisions to transition our focus from mobility to accessibility. Such a shift is essential to prevent the entrenchment of car-dependent and sprawling systems characterised by issues that impede urban well-being, including unequal and inadequate access, high emissions and pollution, health concerns, and road safety problems. This is not merely a theoretical change; it is a practical strategy to avoid further embedding inefficient and unsustainable practices in urban planning and street design. It is also an appeal to envision and develop transport systems that genuinely meet people’s needs while respecting environmental limits.

An important challenge and opportunity lie in crafting a clear and shared vision of what sustainable and accessible systems in Beira and Quelimane would look like. This section focuses on identifying how local authorities, the private sector, and civil society in both Beira and Quelimane envision a sustainable city. It summarises insights from workshops where participants were invited to imagine their cities in 2050, assuming Beira and Quelimane have followed a sustainable development path. The section also compares these visions with existing transport, urban, and spatial goals. The findings suggest that most stakeholders in Beira and Quelimane envision a system that emphasises accessibility as a means to maximise well-being.

Envisioning Beira in 2050

What would Beira’s streets look like in 2050?

During Beira’s workshop, participants worked together to portrait a sustainable vision of the city for 2050. In other words, what would the city look like if it managed to reach sustainability by 2050? Participants were asked to answer a series of questions, such as: how are people moving? what has disappeared? what has appeared? and what type of new activities are present? Box 3.1 summarises some of the results from the envisioning exercise. Based on these inputs, the common vision for Beira considers a dynamic urban landscape where accessibility, environmental sustainability, and innovative urban planning converge to create a more liveable city. The different aspects capturing this vision are the following.

Mobility and transport modes: By 2050, Beira’s residents will move through the city using diverse, clean, and efficient modes of transport. The streets will host electric vehicles, bicycles, motorbikes, buses, and pedestrians. A notable shift will be the complete eradication of fossil fuel-powered vehicles, signalling the city’s transition towards electric and sustainable transport. Bicycles will play a prominent role, and the infrastructure will reflect this with dedicated cycle paths, pedestrian lanes, and even aerial bridges for safe crossing. The focus on mobility will emphasise inclusivity, with specific provisions for people with disabilities to ensure equitable access to public spaces.

In addition to street-level transport, Beira will introduce more advanced systems like a subway or electric trains, efficiently transporting both people and goods across the city. Public transport will be prioritised, reflecting a shift toward collective mobility solutions that reduce congestion and carbon emissions. The roads themselves will be more spacious, with designated lanes for each type of transport, ensuring smooth and safe flows of traffic.

Urban design and infrastructure: The streets of Beira will be characterised by enhanced infrastructure that supports the city’s sustainability goals and the well-being of its residents. Wide, well-maintained roads will facilitate movement, while mangroves and green spaces will become integral features of the urban landscape. The city will have an inclusive road profile that caters to all, including pedestrians and cyclists. Underground power systems will replace traditional above-ground infrastructure, creating a more streamlined, hazard-free environment. Additionally, drainage systems and pathways will be modernised to cope with environmental challenges.

Garbage containers, once prominent on Beira’s streets, will be replaced with more efficient point-to-point waste collection systems, reducing visual clutter and promoting cleanliness. Similarly, sidewalks will no longer host parked vehicles or garbage bins, instead offering space for leisure and movement. Trees will line the streets, contributing to greener public spaces and a healthier environment.

Disappearing elements: A key feature of this transformation is the elimination of precarious housing and the disorganised elements of the current urban fabric. Streets will no longer be dominated by street commerce or informal settlements; instead, they will give way to formalised commerce and residential zones, ensuring safer and more organised public spaces. The chaotic landscape of open ditches and cluttered trees will also disappear, replaced by well-designed drainage systems and green areas. These changes will reflect a conscious effort to beautify and optimise the city’s spaces while addressing long-standing challenges.

Emerging activities and spaces: The reimagined streets of Beira will offer space for a variety of new activities that cater to the city’s growing needs. Commercial zones, such as restaurants, bars, supermarkets, and canteens, will be integrated into urban areas, offering services and leisure to the public. Additionally, new residential developments like condominiums and health stations will emerge, making the city more self-sufficient. Sports and recreational activities will also flourish, with tennis courts, football stadiums, and even canoeing facilities becoming prominent features in public spaces. Tourism will be bolstered by electric train systems, allowing visitors to explore the city sustainably.

Sustainability and inclusivity: The future streets of Beira will prioritise sustainability and inclusivity. Green spaces, such as parks and mangroves, will provide respite and enhance the city’s resilience to climate change. The reliance on electric vehicles and non-motorised forms of transport will reduce pollution and support the city’s commitment to environmental preservation. Streets will be designed for all, including marginalised groups such as the disabled, ensuring that everyone can navigate the city easily and safely.

Box 3.1. Picturing a sustainable Beira in 2050

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Figure 3.8 presents word clouds that reflect the answers to a series of questions that helped workshop participants to imagine the streets of Beira in 2050. In these figures, word size indicates the frequency of each response, i.e. larger words correspond to answers given more frequently.

Figure 3.8. Envisioning a sustainable version of Beira in 2050
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How are people moving?

By 2050, mobility in Beira is diverse and multimodal, with people relying heavily on bicycles, motorcycles, and walking for short distances. Efficient public transport, including buses and a subway system, provides accessible and sustainable options for longer trips. Private vehicles still exist but are complemented by electric motorcycles and bicycles, reflecting a shift towards cleaner, more sustainable transportation methods.

What has disappeared?

By 2050, fossil-fuel vehicles, precarious housing, and cluttered urban infrastructure have vanished from Beira. The streets are free from garbage containers, cluttered trees, and wide ditches, while benches and parking on sidewalks have been removed. Street commerce has shifted into more organised spaces, and inaccessible roads have been upgraded, creating a more orderly and liveable city environment.

What has appeared?

Electric vehicles, efficient public transport, and well-organised pedestrian and bicycle lanes now define Beira’s transport landscape in 2050. Mangroves have reemerged as a part of green urban spaces, while wide, accessible roads and footbridges make movement easier for all. Inclusive road profiles, road signs, and abundant green areas support a safer, more sustainable environment for residents.

New features in the city?

By 2050, Beira has transformed into a vibrant city with diverse activities, including solid waste collection, paved roads, and enhanced drainage systems. Public amenities like football stadiums, tennis courts, universities, and health stations are thriving. New green spaces, restaurants, bars, and supermarkets contribute to an active social life, while efficient public transport and electric trams offer seamless connectivity. The city also features underground power systems and modern residential areas like condominiums.

Envisioning Quelimane in 2050

What would Quelimane’s streets look like in 2050?

During Quelimane’s workshop, participants collaborated to envision a sustainable future for the city in 2050. As in the case of Beira, they explored what Quelimane would look like if it successfully achieved sustainability by that year. Participants were asked to answer a series of questions, such as: How are people moving? What has disappeared? What has appeared? What types of new activities are present? Figure 3.9 summarises some of the main results from the envisioning exercise. Drawing from this work, a common vision emerges that emphasises a shift towards cleaner, more efficient transportation, improved urban infrastructure, and the creation of new spaces for both physical and recreational activities.

Mobility and transport modes: Quelimane’s residents will benefit from a diverse range of mobility options that reflect an increased emphasis on sustainability and safety. Electric vehicles, electric bicycles, and gas-powered public transport will dominate the roads. Bicycles will remain a popular mode of transport, supported by a network of well-designed cycle paths. Pedestrians, cyclists, and wheelchair users will no longer compete for the same space; instead, dedicated paths, ramps, and passenger stops will ensure safe and seamless mobility for all.

Public transport will be enhanced with the introduction of electric trains, buses, and an intermodal transportation system. The presence of boats and electric trains will signify better maritime and rail transport, facilitating both intra-city and regional connectivity. Public transportation will be inclusive and accessible, encouraging the reduction of private vehicle usage. In addition, pedestrians will benefit from more extensive crossings, and there will be improved connectivity between different modes of transport, ensuring that mobility within the city is both efficient and environmentally friendly.

Urban design and infrastructure: The physical layout of Quelimane’s streets in 2050 will reflect a conscious effort to create a more orderly, sustainable, and aesthetically pleasing urban environment. Heavy, animal-powered, and manual vehicles will disappear from the city’s centre. The city centre will benefit from public parking spaces and a more organised flow of traffic. The shift away from diesel, gasoline-powered cars, and motorbikes will contribute to cleaner air and less traffic congestion.

Roads will be modernised, with improvements in access, sanitation, and overall maintenance. The once bumpy and hazardous roads will give way to smooth, well-maintained pathways that facilitate seamless movement for vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians. New green initiatives will also emerge, such as the reduction of greenhouse gases and the creation of a healthier urban environment. Trees, gardens, and biodiversity centres will flourish, bringing nature closer to the urban landscape while promoting environmental sustainability.

Disappearing elements: Key challenges that currently plague Quelimane’s streets, such as the disorderly competition for space between pedestrians, cyclists, and cars, will disappear. The reduction in private vehicle usage, the complete disappearance of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles, and the removal of bicycles outside their designated lanes will free up space for cleaner, more efficient transportation. Additionally, the elimination of diesel-powered cars and motorbikes will mark a transition towards more modern and sustainable transportation options.

Emerging spaces and activities: With this transformation, Quelimane’s streets will become a hub for new physical, cultural, and recreational activities. The wide cycle paths and pedestrian-friendly infrastructure will encourage physical activities such as walking and cycling. New leisure spaces, such as parks, botanical gardens, and cultural centres will emerge, offering residents opportunities for relaxation and recreation.

Sports activities will also thrive, with the appearance of motocross tracks, skating rinks, sports stadiums, and cultural centres. The city will cater to diverse sporting interests, from conventional activities to more niche offerings like canoeing, made possible by enhanced maritime transport. New centres of growth, including biodiversity hubs, will contribute to both horizontal and vertical urban development.

Sustainability and inclusivity: Sustainability will be a key theme in the transformation of Quelimane’s streets. The introduction of electric buses, electric trains, and electric vehicles will significantly reduce the city’s carbon footprint. New access roads and public transport infrastructure will enhance mobility while promoting inclusivity, ensuring that people of all ages and abilities can move freely and safely through the city. In particular, cultural activities, sporting events, and inclusive services such as ice cream shops and quality playgrounds will become central features of public life.

Box 3.2. Picturing a sustainable Quelimane in 2050

Copy link to Box 3.2. Picturing a sustainable Quelimane in 2050

Figure 3.9 presents word clouds that reflect the answers to a series of questions that helped workshop participants to imagine the streets of Quelimane in 2050. These figures use word size to represent how often each response was mentioned. i.e. more frequently cited answers appear in larger text.

Figure 3.9. Envisioning a sustainable version of Quelimane in 2050
Copy link to Figure 3.9. Envisioning a sustainable version of Quelimane in 2050

How are people moving?

By 2050, mobility in Quelimane is marked by a diverse range of transport modes. Residents enjoy safe mobility through bicycles, buses, electric trains, boats, roller skates, and walking. The use of hydrogen-powered cars, electric vehicles, and gas-fuelled trains also points to a significant shift towards cleaner energy. Public transport and cycling have become integral to urban mobility, supported by safe, accessible routes for pedestrians, cyclists, and public transport users.

What has disappeared?

Several elements that once cluttered or obstructed urban spaces have disappeared in Quelimane by 2050. The reduction in the number of private cars, fossil-fuel-powered motorbikes, and heavy vehicles, alongside the elimination of wood and diesel trains, has greatly improved the environment. Disputes over shared space between different transport modes have also been resolved, and roads are no longer bumpy or inefficient.

What has appeared?

A range of new infrastructure has emerged, including cycle paths, intermodal transport centres, ramps, and passenger stops. Improved access roads, better road sanitation, and maritime transport systems have also enhanced connectivity. New public spaces, such as leisure areas, biodiversity centres, cultural hubs, and botanical gardens, are complemented by sustainable initiatives like the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and healthier environments.

Is there space for new activities? What kind of activities?

By 2050, Quelimane boasts a wide array of activities that reflect both cultural enrichment and a commitment to sustainability. The city features spaces for physical exercise, motocross tracks, skating rinks, sport stadiums, and playgrounds. Cultural centres and quality sporting events are a major draw, while new activities like surfing, canoeing, and electric bus transport offer innovative recreational and transport options.

Understand: The system behind the trends

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A central contribution to this analysis lies in uncovering the system dynamics that drive high emission levels while limiting development goals. Gaining insights into these underlying dynamics can reveal how climate policy can serve as a tool for enhancing the well-being of urban populations and provide a better understanding of what needs to change in order to achieve the vision discussed in the previous section. System thinking offers a range of methodologies, including causal loop diagrams (CLDs), which allow for visualising and mapping the structure and behaviour of systems. Through CLDs, we can better understand the non-linear interactions that contribute to the escalation of greenhouse gas emissions, while also mapping out the systemic structure. In practical terms, CLDs help explain why there is often a divergence between the outcomes of a system and the intended goals.

This section presents a series of CLDs that map the dynamics shaping the transport and urban systems of Beira and Quelimane. These diagrams were constructed based on available city data, an extensive review of available literature, a set of semi-structured interviews, and the feedback gathered during workshops held in both cities. The initial objective was to explore whether key dynamics typically observed in car-dependent systems were also present in these cities. These dynamics are the presence of induced demand, sprawl, and the role of paratransit services shaping the efficiency of the current public transport system (see Annex A for explanations on induced demand and sprawl; see Box 3.3 for more information on paratransit services in Mozambique). The rationale behind this approach is that identifying such dynamics early on can offer these cities a valuable opportunity to intervene and reshape their systems before unsustainable outcomes worsen and system lock-in leads to higher costs for future interventions. Guidance on interpreting causal loop diagrams is provided in the Annex.

The CLDs reveal that the transport systems in Beira and Quelimane are influenced by different sets of dynamics. As of now, neither city is entrenched in the patterns associated with car-dependence. Furthermore, although paratransit services are present, they have not yet become a significant source of traffic congestion. Nonetheless, rapid urban expansion and the growth of informal settlements are beginning to influence transport choices in both cities. It is essential to note that both cities are expected to continue expanding in the coming decades, and as their economies and societies evolve, the current low-congestion equilibrium is likely to shift.

Despite the absence of car-dependent transport systems in Beira and Quelimane, recent trends indicate a steady increase in CO₂ emissions from the transport sector in both cities. Figure 3.10 shows that, while emissions from industry remain the dominant source, and residential emissions have generally declined or remained low, transport emissions have grown considerably over the past three decades. In Beira, transport-related CO₂ emissions increased from approximately 5 300 metric tonnes in 1990 to nearly 15 000 metric tonnes in 2020. Similarly, Quelimane saw a rise from 370 metric tonnes in 1990 to over 2 000 metric tonnes in 2020. These figures suggest a growing reliance on motorised transport, albeit from a relatively low baseline.

Given the ongoing urban expansion and economic development in both cities, this upward trajectory in transport emissions underscores the need for proactive policy interventions to promote sustainable mobility. Without strategic planning, increasing motorisation could exacerbate congestion, air pollution, and carbon emissions, shifting the cities towards a more car-dependent future. As Beira and Quelimane continue to grow, integrating low-carbon transport solutions, including improved public transport and non-motorised mobility infrastructure, will be crucial in maintaining accessibility while mitigating environmental impacts.

Figure 3.10. CO₂ emissions in Beira and Quelimane
Copy link to Figure 3.10. CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in Beira and Quelimane

Mapping Beira’s system

Beira shows a very particular urban development pattern that challenges its long-term sustainability. Beira’s city centre was developed by the Portuguese before Mozambique’s independence in 1975. The centre has been developed with a strong focus on wide boulevards and an overall orderly planning. However, in recent decades, major areas surrounding the city centre have experienced a fast development of informal settlements. The latter has created what can be considered as a “grey belt” surrounding the city centre. This type of urbanisation has a significant impact on the capacity of local governments to provide public services. In particular, providing transport services is increasingly challenging, since the lack of planning has limited the public space available for streets that can fit different transport users, such as cars, public transport, as well as non-motorised transport. Moreover, this has pushed future expansion towards the current hinterland, further contributing to sprawl.

A city centre waiting for congestion

The interaction between urban sprawl and induced demand often leads to expanding territories and growing traffic. In most cities, as traffic increases, authorities respond by building more roads to reduce congestion, which, paradoxically, leads to more car use and eventually more traffic (Nass, Mogridge and Sandberg, 2001[35]). This dynamic perpetuates induced demand: new roads alleviate congestion only temporarily before they attract additional vehicles. At the same time, sprawl is fuelled by these road networks, as improved connectivity encourages development in distant areas, increasing the city’s catchment zone.

In Beira, however, this process unfolds differently due to its historic urban characteristics:

The city centre was planned with an emphasis on wide boulevards, offering a very large road capacity well beyond current traffic levels. While traffic is growing, it remains far below the threshold that would overwhelm the existing road network.
Unlike many cities where peripheral expansion leads to new road construction, Beira faces a spatial constraint. Informal settlements around the city limit authorities’ ability to expand road capacity in nearby areas. As a result, the demand for transportation is increasingly being met by paratransit services, particularly motorcycles, which are often the only vehicles able to navigate the narrow streets of these informal areas.

Figure 3.11 shows how these characteristics shape induced demand as well as city expansion in Beira. The first thing to highlight is that, contrary to most cities, the pressure to reduce congestion is disconnected from investment in road infrastructure (B1). This is not driven by deliberate policy decisions, but by the physical and socio-economic constraints that limit road expansion, in areas where informal settlements dominate. Although there are not recent estimates of the extent of informal settlements, previous data suggests that in 2012 around 75% of Beira’s population resided in informal settlements (World Bank, 2012[36]). As a result, the top balancing loop in Figure 3.11, which could reduce congestion through infrastructure development, becomes inactive (B1). This leaves the system largely influenced by the bottom loop that accelerates congestion over time (B2, B3, R1).

Beira is currently situated in the lower part of the system depicted in Figure 3.11, where congestion has not yet become a significant concern. The top balancing loop that would typically be activated in response to traffic congestion remains inactive. However, when congestion eventually emerges, it may prove particularly difficult to manage. This is because congestion is relative, i.e. it results from the interplay between the number of vehicles and the spatial capacity of the road network. In cities with limited infrastructure, congestion may arise even with a small vehicle fleet. In contrast, Beira’s central business district (CBD) is characterised by wide boulevards and relatively spacious roadways, which can absorb a growing number of vehicles without immediate pressure on traffic flow. As a result, congestion is likely to be perceived only at a later stage, once the vehicle stock has already grown significantly. When congestion does occur, it will be within a context of a large and entrenched vehicle fleet, making mitigation more complex and costly.

Figure 3.11. Beira city centre waiting for congestion
Copy link to Figure 3.11. Beira city centre waiting for congestion

Contrary to other cities, it will be very difficult for Beira to expand road capacity. As the city continues to grow, the stock of motorised vehicles will continue to increase. However, without the possibility to expand road capacity in the CBD due to the presence of informal settlements, the system tends to fill up the existing road space with more cars and motorbikes. Over time, the city reaches the point where the road network in the CBD is saturated, resulting in persistent traffic congestion. For motorbikes, this dynamic is self-reinforcing: due to the lack of alternatives – such as reliable public transport or safe active modes like cycling – residents continue to rely on motorcycles, creating a vicious cycle of congestion and emissions.

Another distinctive feature of Beira’s urban landscape is the historical design of the road network. Much of the city’s avenues were laid out during the colonial period by Portuguese planners (Segerlin and Cannizzaro, 2021[37]). However, many of these roads were never properly paved, leading to poor road conditions in large sections of the city. This adds an additional layer of complexity to the city’s transport dynamics:

First, while road expansion may not be a feasible solution to congestion, there is a potential role for investment in upgrading and paving the existing road network. Paving roads could temporarily alleviate some of the pressure by improving traffic flow, but it is not a long-term solution to the problem of induced demand.
Second, the poor state of the roads has led to a shift in the type of vehicles being used. Larger vehicles, such as SUVs and pickups, have become the preferred mode of transport due to their ability to handle rough road conditions. This shift towards larger vehicles, however, presents new challenges. SUVs and pickups are more damaging to the road infrastructure, leading to faster degradation of any improvements made (R3). This creates a cycle where the very vehicles that are most suited to the road conditions are also those that contribute the most to the deterioration of the infrastructure.
Furthermore, the dominance of large vehicles in Beira’s streets makes it increasingly difficult and unsafe for residents to use active transport modes such as walking or cycling. Without dedicated spaces for pedestrians and cyclists, the growing presence of large vehicles on the roads marginalises these more sustainable forms of transport. This not only leads to higher levels of GHG emissions but also reduces the overall quality of life by limiting mobility options and increasing the risk of accidents.

Beira’s transport system is caught in a reinforcing loop where poor road conditions, induced demand for motorised vehicles, and the dominance of large SUVs and pickups all contribute to worsening traffic congestion and increasing GHG emissions. To break this cycle, investments in road upgrades alone are insufficient. A broader, more systemic approach is needed – one that addresses the need for alternative modes of transport, improves the infrastructure for active transport, and considers ways to limit the dominance of large, emission-intensive vehicles. The implementation of these actions will benefit from early interventions, since there is a high risk that space for large vehicles is institutionalised, increasing the costs for switching to other transport alternatives in the long term.

Box 3.3. Understanding paratransit services in Mozambique

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Paratransit services play a crucial role in Mozambique’s urban transport system, providing mobility solutions where formal public transport is insufficient or absent. These informal and privately operated services are widespread in cities such as Maputo, Beira, Nampula, and Quelimane, catering to the daily commuting needs of millions of residents.

The most common forms of paratransit services in Mozambique include:

Chapas (minibuses or small vans) – The most prevalent mode of transport in urban areas, chapas operate on fixed routes but without strict schedules, allowing for flexible service provision. They are often overcrowded and poorly regulated but remain affordable and accessible for the majority of urban commuters.
Mylove (open-back trucks) – More common in peri-urban and rural areas, these trucks are used for transporting passengers, often in areas where formal transport options are unavailable. Their use poses significant safety concerns due to the lack of proper seating and protection.
Txopelas (three-wheeled motorised taxis) – Resembling tuk-tuks, txopelas provide short-distance transport within urban and suburban areas. They are particularly popular for their affordability and manoeuvrability in congested streets.
Mototáxis (motorcycle taxis) – Used extensively for quick and flexible transport, mototáxis are common in both urban and rural areas, providing last-mile connectivity where larger vehicles cannot operate efficiently.

In Mozambique, paratransit services are essential to urban mobility. Chapas dominate the transport landscape, offering a flexible and relatively inexpensive alternative to formal bus services. Additionally, mototáxis and txopelas are widely used for short trips within neighbourhoods. While these services enhance accessibility, their informal nature presents regulatory, safety, and operational challenges, including poor vehicle maintenance, irregular fare structures, and traffic congestion.

The development of informal settlements is strongly connected to the use of motorcycles and urban sprawl

Beira’s population continues to grow. Although this process has been mainly driven by natural population growth, internal migration has also contributed to urban population growth during the last decades. Figure 3.12 shows that, between 2000 and 2030, Beira’s population increased by more than 80% compared to 2000 levels. Moreover, as Beira continues with its urbanisation process, the city is creating agglomeration economies1 that create job opportunities and access to basic services, which attract migrants from both rural areas and urban settlements across Sofala province. Figure 3.13 shows that these dynamics create a feedback loop, in which more economic opportunities attract more people, leading to further urban population growth (R1).

Figure 3.12. Beira’s population and built-up area growth compared to 2000 levels
Copy link to Figure 3.12. Beira’s population and built-up area growth compared to 2000 levels

Although increased population generates economic benefits, it also comes with notable challenges. As more firms and people concentrate in the city, the space for housing decreases, leading to congestion and rising housing costs (Klaesson, Johansson and Karlsson, 2013[38]). This increase in the cost of living and lack of affordable housing forces low-income populations, including migrants, to relocate to informal settlements on the city’s periphery (mid-section of Figure 3.13). Figure 3.12 shows that, between 2000 and 2030, Beira’s built-up area is expected to expand significantly, outpacing population growth. By 2030, projections indicate an 83% population increase and a 92% expansion in built-up space. This pattern suggests the presence of urban sprawl, where land consumption exceeds demographic growth, leading to lower densities. As a result, Beira expands, with a growing catchment area that complicates the dynamics of urban mobility and land use (bottom of Figure 3.13).

Figure 3.13. Sprawl is on the rise
Copy link to Figure 3.13. Sprawl is on the rise

The ongoing city expansion significantly influences transport options. Informal and unplanned settlements, which often lack sufficient public space for transport infrastructure, reinforce the attractiveness of motorbikes as a mode of transport. Narrow roads and lack of formal public transit systems make motorbikes, both private and taxi services, the more viable and efficient option for navigating these peripheral areas. As more people rely on motorbikes, their supply increases, making it easier for people to travel longer distances. This, in turn, expands the catchment area further, creating a feedback loop where urban sprawl, motorbike use, and accessibility to the periphery all reinforce each other. The overall result is a city that continues to expand (bottom of Figure 3.13). The process of city expansion is captured by Figure 3.14, which presents the boundaries of Beira at different points in time according to the GHSL Urban Centre Database provided by the European Commission. The figure shows Beira’s urban expansion, from an estimated area of 69 km² in 2000, to 93 km² in 2020, and an expected area of 116 km²in 2030.

This dynamic also poses long-term challenges for sustainable urban development and GHG emissions. Motorbike proliferation, while offering flexibility in the short term, contributes to congestion and increased emissions over time. Furthermore, as the city continues to expand without adequate public transport infrastructure, these transport-related emissions will likely increase, diminishing overall well-being and mobility for many residents. Addressing these issues requires a policy approach that not only mitigates the negative effects of sprawl but also promotes integrated public transport systems that reduce the dependency on motorbikes and create more sustainable transport solutions for the future.

Figure 3.14. Urban expansion in Beira between 2000 and 2030
Copy link to Figure 3.14. Urban expansion in Beira between 2000 and 2030

A critical question for Beira’s future development is how the city will evolve beyond the current belt of informal settlements that surround the city centre. Based on insights from interviews conducted, one of the main objectives of Beira’s urban development strategy is to provide improved services to populations in areas with low accessibility. This includes efforts to enhance public infrastructure and extend basic services to peripheral areas. However, as public investment in basic services – such as paved roads and utilities – increases in these outer areas, this is likely to generate an induced demand for motor vehicles. Improved infrastructure in the periphery makes these areas more attractive for both residents and businesses, leading to further urban sprawl and a greater reliance on private motorised transport. This demand for vehicles, particularly in the absence of adequate public transport alternatives, will eventually increase traffic congestion in both the periphery and the city centre.

The investment in public mass transport plays a critical role in shaping the city’s transport dynamics. As seen in Figure 3.15, an infrastructure gap currently exists in Beira, where limited public space and resources for mass transport hinder the ability to provide efficient services. This infrastructure gap forces residents to rely heavily on paratransit services, including motorbikes and informal taxis, which, while flexible, contribute to higher emissions and congestion (R4).

Figure 3.15. Paratransit hindering the deployment of mass public transport
Copy link to Figure 3.15. Paratransit hindering the deployment of mass public transport

This reliance on paratransit services reinforces the attractiveness of private vehicle use, especially for those who can afford it, as driving becomes a preferable option over unreliable public transport. The result is a feedback loop where the attractiveness of driving, combined with limited investment in mass public transport, leads to further dependence on paratransit, exacerbating congestion and making the public transport system less efficient.

Beira faces a complex challenge in balancing the expansion of basic infrastructure and services with sustainable transport development. Without deliberate efforts to invest in public transport infrastructure, the city’s sprawl will likely continue to drive increased motor vehicle use and associated GHG emissions. At the same time, the cost and feasibility of providing efficient mass public transport will become more difficult as the city expands and informal settlements grow, further complicating efforts to curb traffic congestion and ensure equitable access to transport services. Moreover, Beira currently benefits from a large amount of public space, which is a key feature to build on. Indeed, investing in public transport is a priority that will require mobilising a significant amount of resources. Estimates suggest that expanding Beira’s road network to cover 80% of the metropolitan area while maintaining spatial density, would require USD 71 million for construction, and USD 4 million annually for maintenance; additionally, achieving full public transit coverage would demand USD 49 million in capital investment and between USD 46 million and USD 74 million per year for operations and upkeep (UN-HABITAT, 2020[39]).

Mapping Quelimane’s system

Quelimane has successfully established a virtuous cycle in its city centre, largely due to the widespread use of taxi bikes as the primary mode of transport. This reliance on non-motorised transport has effectively limited the expansion of motorised paratransit services, such as taxi motorbikes, txopelas (three-wheeled vehicles), and vans. Indeed, it is estimated that over a third of journeys take place by bicycle in Quelimane (Mendiate and Robinson, 2019[40]). As a result, the city has managed to keep traffic congestion and pollution at bay, achieving an equilibrium that many other cities around the world are striving for.

The extensive deployment of taxi bikes has not only reduced traffic and emissions but has also stimulated local economic activity. It has generated diverse livelihood opportunities, from bike mechanics to the distribution of bicycle parts, helping to address the growing demand for jobs as the urban population continues to expand. Although there are no estimates of the extent of this economic spillover in Quelimane, previous studies show that this local ecosystem of bicycle-related services has supported job creation and economic resilience (Runhungwe and Ferrao, 2022[41]; Nkurunziza et al., 2012[42]).

Despite this achievement, the current equilibrium is being challenged by several factors. Urban sprawl is expanding the city’s footprint, making longer commutes more common and reducing the practicality of taxi bikes for some residents. Moreover, the slow pace of developing dedicated bike lanes is undermining the safety and efficiency of non-motorised transport. As income levels rise among certain segments of the population, there is also a shift away from active modes of transport, with a growing preference for private motorised vehicles, which could eventually destabilise the existing balance.

To sustain and enhance the benefits of this taxi-bike-based system, the mindset that fostered its widespread adoption must be complemented by the development of supportive infrastructure. The city needs to accelerate the deployment of NMT infrastructure to ensure the safety of cyclists and encourage broader use of bicycles. In addition, targeted incentives could be introduced to encourage the middle- and higher-income classes to embrace active transport, particularly for short trips within the city. By addressing these emerging challenges, Quelimane can continue to preserve its low-emission transport model and maintain a sustainable, inclusive urban mobility system.

Taxi bikes have hindered induced demand

In Quelimane, as in Beira, the layout of the city centre is based on large avenues, which initially provided the potential for significant motorised traffic. In Figure 3.16, this is captured on the balancing loop B1. So far, these large avenues have offered enough road capacity to avoid congestion. In other words, Quelimane has not yet faced pressure to reduce congestion and eventually trigger B2 and B3, i.e. create induced demand for private car and paratransit services.

The widespread adoption of taxi bikes in Quelimane has played a key role in preventing the development of motorised paratransit services, such as motorbikes and minivans (this is captured in B4). Indeed, in 2022, there were 5 500 taxi bikes registered in Quelimane (Runhungwe and Ferrao, 2022[41]). In many cities around the world, investments in road infrastructure have typically led to an increase in the use of private cars and paratransit services, resulting in traffic congestion and creating high demand for even more road capacity. Quelimane has managed to resist this trend by offering a high supply of taxi bikes, which has effectively reduced the number of motorised vehicles on the roads (B4). By limiting the growth of motorised paratransit services, the city has successfully diverted the demand for transport to a sustainable, non-motorised mode. In this way, the city has managed to keep traffic levels low and reduce associated pollution. However, people interviewed during this project highlighted that as the city continues to expand and travel distances increase, the use of motorbikes (which are significantly cheaper than cars) is starting to grow.

Figure 3.16. Replacing paratransit with sustainable active modes
Copy link to Figure 3.16. Replacing paratransit with sustainable active modes

Figure 3.16 shows that, despite the success of taxi bikes in Quelimane, they have not had a significant impact on the attractiveness of private cars. The shift in transport patterns brought about by taxi bikes has largely affected low-income groups, while middle- and high-income households remain inclined towards private car ownership (Mendiate, Soria-lara and Monzon, 2020[43]). As in many African countries, car ownership is seen as a symbol of status and success, making it an aspirational goal for those who can afford it.

Another critical issue in Quelimane relates to the types of vehicles currently in use. Although there are not estimates for the stock of vehicles in the city, several people interviewed as well as workshop participants highlighted the increasing number of SUVs and pick-ups, which occupy significant road space and generate higher levels of GHG emissions. These vehicles are particularly attractive because of the limited availability of paved roads in the city. Driving on unpaved roads, especially during the rainy season, can be challenging, which drives demand for robust vehicles like SUVs and pickups. This situation is similar to Beira, where many of the city centre’s streets were not paved, leaving them in poor condition, which in turn induces the purchase of SUVs and pickups. Ironically, the more these vehicles circulate, the more they damage the unpaved roads, which reinforces the demand for such vehicles. Figure 3.16 shows that this creates a feedback loop, in which the damage caused by heavy vehicles leads to further deterioration of the roads, which in turn increases demand for larger, more robust vehicles capable of handling these conditions (B3).

Moving forward, addressing the dual challenge of urban expansion and rising motorbike and private car use will require a more comprehensive approach. This could involve improving road conditions to reduce the necessity for large vehicles while continuing to promote the benefits of non-motorised transport. The city will also need to provide adequate infrastructure, such as dedicated bike lanes, to support the continued use of taxi bikes and ensure that this sustainable mode of transport remains attractive as Quelimane grows.

Motorcycles are playing an important role shaping urban expansion

Quelimane is experiencing an urbanisation process characterised by high population growth. This process is driven by natural population growth and internal migration from Zambezia province (top of the CLD in Figure 3.18). In Quelimane, this trend has been particularly pronounced compared to Beira. Between 2000 and 2030, the city’s population is projected to grow from approximately 173 000 to nearly 646 000, an increase of 273% (Figure 3.17). In other words, Quelimane’s population is expected to triple within three decades.

Figure 3.17. Quelimane’s population and built-up area 2005-30 compared to 2000 levels
Copy link to Figure 3.17. Quelimane’s population and built-up area 2005-30 compared to 2000 levels

Population growth has influenced urban expansion, as shown in the mid-section of Figure 3.18. However, in Quelimane, built-up expansion has occurred at a slower rate. Between 2000 and 2030, the city’s built-up area is projected to increase by 75% (Figure 3.17), indicating that while Quelimane is growing, it has not yet experienced rapid spatial expansion. This may be attributed to physical barriers and the relatively low presence of motorised vehicles. As shown in Figure 3.18, this dynamic has kept average distance low, creating incentives for taxi bikes. Moreover, the widespread use of taxi bikes has also likely played a role in maintaining a compact urban form by providing an accessible and flexible transport alternative to paratransit within the city.

Figure 3.18. Motorbikes may take over taxi bikes due to sprawl
Copy link to Figure 3.18. Motorbikes may take over taxi bikes due to sprawl

While Quelimane is not experiencing the same scale of informal settlements forming a continuous belt around the city centre as in Beira, and built-up area is not growing as fast as its population, the development of such settlements is still extending the city’s footprint, contributing to a wider catchment area. This can be observed in Figure 3.19, where the area of the estimated boundaries for the urban centre encompassing Quelimane are expected to increase from 43 to 56 km2 (according to the definition provided by the GHS Urban Centre Database). It is, however, important to consider that Quelimane’s expansion is limited by geographical constraints including the type of soil and physical barriers such as mangroves and the Bons Sinais river.

Figure 3.19. Urban expansion in Quelimane between 2000 and 2030
Copy link to Figure 3.19. Urban expansion in Quelimane between 2000 and 2030

The relationship between two-wheel transport modes and urban sprawl is becoming increasingly evident in Quelimane, much like in Beira. The top portion of the CLD in Figure 3.18 illustrates the same dynamic: as the urban population grows, driven by both migration and natural increase, informal settlements begin to expand. This contributes to urban sprawl by increasing the catchment area (R1). As Quelimane’s built-up environment continues to expand, both taxi bikes and motorbikes are emerging as practical transport solutions to reach the city’s outermost areas (R2). Initially, taxi bikes are a more attractive option due to their affordability and availability, but as distances from the city centre increase, the utility of taxi bikes diminishes. Motorbikes then become a more attractive alternative, as they can cover longer distances more quickly and efficiently than non-motorised bikes.

The rising stock of motorbikes enhances accessibility to peripheral areas, reinforcing the expansion of the catchment area. This expanded accessibility in turn drives further urban sprawl. Essentially, motorbikes play a dual role: they facilitate mobility to remote areas, but they also indirectly contribute to the further spread of the urban area by making these far-flung locations more reachable. In Figure 3.18 this dynamic creates a feedback loop, where increasing motorbike use both supports and exacerbates sprawl, as seen in the reinforcing loop (R2) in the diagram.

As sprawl continues, the growing distance to the city centre will progressively reduce the attractiveness of taxi bikes for daily commuting. While taxi bikes remain an essential part of Quelimane’s transport ecosystem, the increasing distance due to sprawl favours motorised two-wheelers, particularly for accessing remote areas with limited infrastructure. If this trend continues unchecked, it may lead to further motorisation and growing emissions, similar to the dynamics observed in other expanding urban areas in the region. To mitigate this dynamic, the city will need to address the challenges of sprawl by implementing policies that promote more sustainable modes of transport, while also investing in better infrastructure to support non-motorised mobility. This could include enhancing bike lanes, improving public transport links, and limiting the extent of urban sprawl through strategic urban planning.

Urbanisation in Quelimane has significantly increased the city’s exposure to flooding, posing significant challenges to the population but also to the sustainability of taxi bikes. Figure 3.20 shows that, between 2000 and 2030, the population exposed to 100‑year return period floods will have nearly doubled, from 12.05% to 20.39%, while built-up areas exposed to these floods will have increased from 15.23% to 26.84%. Similarly, exposure to coastal floods with a 100‑year return period has risen sharply, with the affected population growing from 2.89% to 7.20% and built-up areas from 5.14% to 12.04%.

Figure 3.20. Quelimane’s exposure to flooding between 2000 and 2030
Copy link to Figure 3.20. Quelimane’s exposure to flooding between 2000 and 2030

Figure 3.18 shows that as floods become more frequent and severe, road infrastructure deteriorates, reducing the efficiency of active transport modes like cycling and walking. Flooded or damaged streets reduce road capacity, increasing congestion and making travel less predictable for taxi bike operators. Consequently, the declining reliability and attractiveness of cycling as a transport option could reduce demand for taxi bikes, threatening their economic viability. Given that taxi bikes are a key component of Quelimane’s urban mobility, addressing flood risks through resilient infrastructure and improved drainage is critical. Without such measures, the increasing exposure to flooding may erode the sustainability of this important transport mode and contribute to the development of paratransit services and sprawl.

Identify: High-leverage points

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Understanding a system and its dynamics is essential for identifying potential high-leverage points (HLPs). HLPs are strategic intervention points within a system where targeted actions can shift structural dynamics to achieve desirable outcomes while reducing unintended consequences (Meadows, 2009[44]). These points can be identified through various approaches. In the case of Beira and Quelimane, they have emerged from the analysis of the causal loop diagrams presented in the previous section, as well as from the review of relevant policy documents and insights gained from stakeholder workshops.

These HLPs offer policymakers an opportunity to design and implement interventions that steer urban development towards the envisioned 2050 future outlined in these case studies. Furthermore, they served as the foundation for the policy solutions co-developed with local stakeholders in Beira and Quelimane, which are discussed in the following section. This section begins by presenting the HLPs identified for Beira, followed by those for Quelimane.

Beira’s high-leverage points

Beira has a unique opportunity to shape its urban future by proactively addressing key structural challenges before they become entrenched. The city’s development trajectory is at a crossroads, where decisions made today will determine its long-term sustainability, accessibility, and resilience.

A crucial first step is ensuring that urban space is allocated efficiently before congestion and car dependency take hold. Beira’s wide roads present an opportunity to prioritise non-motorised transport and dedicated lanes for public transit, rather than allowing them to be gradually occupied by private vehicles. By securing space for sustainable mobility now, the city can pre-empt future transport bottlenecks and enhance accessibility for all.

Sustainable mobility, however, depends not only on transport infrastructure but also on urban form. Beira can reinforce compact development by directing population growth towards well-serviced areas, upgrading underutilised buildings, and investing in social housing. By reducing urban sprawl and promoting mixed-use development, the city can limit the need for long commutes and create vibrant, accessible neighbourhoods.

Yet, even with well-planned spaces and efficient land use, mobility will remain a challenge unless Beira addresses its dependence on informal transport. The dominance of paratransit is preventing the establishment of an integrated public transport system. Without intervention, this cycle will become harder to break, making mass transit solutions increasingly costly and difficult to implement. The city must act now to create the necessary conditions – both spatially and institutionally – for a functional, efficient public transport system.

These issues have been captured in three high-leverage points that, if strategically addressed, can drive transformational change. Figure 3.21 presents Beira’s system and high-leverage points. The following paragraphs provide a detailed description of these high-leverage points and describe the areas for policy action that can lead to transformational change.

Figure 3.21. Beira’s system and high leverage points.
Copy link to Figure 3.21. Beira’s system and high leverage points.

HLP 1: Allocating road space strategically to prevent congestion

Proactive road space allocation in Beira’s central business district (CBD) presents a crucial opportunity to shape the city’s mobility system before congestion and car dependency become entrenched. Rather than allowing existing wide roads to be gradually occupied by private vehicles, Beira can strategically reallocate space now to prioritise non-motorised transport, mass public transport, and green infrastructure. This approach will not only prevent future traffic bottlenecks but also promote sustainable mobility and public well-being.

The causal loop diagram in Figure 3.22 underscores that investment in road expansion within the CBD is no longer a viable long-term option. Once congestion takes hold, the pressure to expand roads will intensify, yet physical and financial constraints will make further expansion impossible. Instead of reacting to rising congestion levels in the future, Beira must act pre-emptively by optimising the use of its existing road infrastructure. This means reallocating current road space to support active transport and public transit while limiting the capacity available for private cars. By implementing these changes now, Beira can prevent the reinforcing cycle in which added road capacity attracts more private vehicles, exacerbating congestion. This shift, represented in the causal loop diagram by converting key feedback relationships from negative (red) to positive (blue), ensures that road space contributes to sustainable urban mobility rather than inducing additional traffic demand.

By securing space for walking, cycling, and public transport now, the city can avoid the common pattern where road expansion leads to induced demand for private cars. Green and recreational spaces along transport corridors can further enhance the attractiveness of non-motorised modes by providing shaded, pedestrian-friendly environments. In turn, this would increase the share of people using active transport, reducing pressure on road infrastructure and mitigating the long-term risks of congestion.

Unlike many cities where reallocating space is politically and logistically challenging due to high car dependency, Beira still has the flexibility to implement these changes with minimal disruption. Acting now allows the city to embed sustainable mobility principles before road space becomes contested, ensuring a smoother transition toward a resilient, multi-modal transport system. By prioritising strategic road space reallocation, Beira can prevent congestion before it takes over the CBD, setting a precedent for sustainable urban development.

Figure 3.22. Distribute space in Beira’s CBD before it becomes too disruptive
Copy link to Figure 3.22. Distribute space in Beira’s CBD before it becomes too disruptive

HL 2: Upgrading urban areas to enhance density and accessibility

Beira has a critical opportunity to guide its urban growth towards a more compact and sustainable form by addressing land scarcity and limiting unplanned expansion in the periphery. A key strategy to achieve this is urban upgrading, revitalising underutilised spaces, upgrading informal settlements, and promoting investment in social housing within the central business district (CBD). By making efficient use of existing infrastructure and services, Beira can accommodate its growing population without exacerbating urban sprawl.

The causal loop in Figure 3.23 highlights the interplay between land scarcity in the CBD, informal settlement expansion, and transport infrastructure. Without intervention, high housing costs in the city centre push lower-income residents to the periphery, reinforcing a cycle of informal settlement growth and increasing the average distance between homes and economic hubs. This, in turn, reduces population density in central areas, making mass public transport less viable while increasing dependence on cars and paratransit services.

Figure 3.23. Channel population towards compact development
Copy link to Figure 3.23. Channel population towards compact development

To break this cycle, Beira must prioritise urban upgrading as a means of alleviating land scarcity. By repurposing abandoned buildings, expanding affordable housing, and integrating informal settlements into the urban fabric, the city can create a more inclusive and denser urban environment. This shift would limit housing price differentials between the CBD and the periphery, reducing the incentive for low-income households to settle further from the city core.

Furthermore, compact development enhances the feasibility of efficient public transport. As shown in the causal loop diagram, a larger population in well-serviced locations increases the viability of mass public transit, allowing for better mobility solutions that do not depend on continued road expansion. However, limiting road expansion alone will not effectively curb sprawl. Instead, Beira must adopt a mixed land-use approach, ensuring that residential areas are closely integrated with offices, retail spaces, schools, and public services. By proactively guiding population growth towards existing urban areas and investing in urban upgrading, Beira can create a self-reinforcing cycle of sustainability, one that fosters economic agglomeration, improves accessibility, and limits inefficient urban expansion.

HLP 3: Strengthening investment in mass public transport to break dependency on paratransit

Beira’s reliance on paratransit services, particularly motorcycle taxis, presents a significant barrier to the development of a well-functioning public transport system. As the city expands, this dependency reduces the demand for formal mass transit, creating a cycle in which the infrastructure gap continues to grow. Without intervention, this self-reinforcing loop will make it increasingly difficult to justify and secure investment in an integrated, efficient public transport system. The causal loop diagram in Figure 3.24 highlights how this dynamic is exacerbated by limited public funding for mass transport. As reliance on paratransit services increases, investment in public transport remains insufficient, further widening the infrastructure gap. Additionally, informal settlements on the periphery consume available space that could otherwise be allocated to public transit infrastructure. This reduces the feasibility of large-scale transport investments while increasing the cost of implementing a formal system. Over time, these constraints make it more difficult to redirect mobility patterns toward efficient, high-capacity transport solutions.

Figure 3.24. Getting mass public transport out of the trap
Copy link to Figure 3.24. Getting mass public transport out of the trap

To break this cycle, Beira must prioritise the reallocation of funding towards public transport, ensuring that investments in mass transit infrastructure are not delayed until it becomes cost prohibitive. Redirecting financial resources to public transport can help close the infrastructure gap, making formal transit systems more efficient and attractive. As depicted in the causal loop diagram, this shift would transform a reinforcing negative loop into a more balanced system, where public transport investment improves service quality, increases ridership, and gradually reduces reliance on paratransit. However, investment alone will not be enough. To fully integrate mass public transport into Beira’s mobility landscape, city authorities must also secure space for transit infrastructure before it is permanently occupied by informal services or private vehicles. This requires proactive urban planning, ensuring that future transport corridors are designed to accommodate high-capacity transit rather than reactive road expansion that further entrenches car dependency.

By acting now to reallocate funding and secure the necessary infrastructure for mass public transport, Beira can avoid becoming locked into an unsustainable transport model. A well-integrated public transit system will not only enhance mobility and reduce congestion but also contribute to more equitable and climate-resilient urban development.

Quelimane’s high-leverage points

Quelimane has a unique opportunity to solidify its status as a leading cycling city while planning for future urban expansion in a way that prioritises sustainable mobility. However, without strategic interventions, the increasing presence of private vehicles could gradually undermine the city’s current advantages. To maintain its strengths and shape a more resilient urban future, three high-leverage points (HLPs) must be addressed in a coherent and integrated manner.

The first step is to institutionalise the optimal use of space before car dependency takes hold. Quelimane’s streets are currently dominated by bicycles, creating a more inclusive and accessible urban environment. However, as SUVs and pickups become more common, the lack of designated cycling infrastructure threatens this balance. By securing protected lanes for cyclists and pedestrians now, while also introducing speed limits and traffic-calming measures, the city can preserve its non-motorised transport culture and prevent future conflicts between transport modes.

Yet infrastructure alone is not enough. A lasting transformation requires a shift in aspirations, moving away from the idea that private cars are a symbol of status and success. To achieve this, bicycles must be positioned as desirable and aspirational modes of transport. Expanding local production of high-quality bicycles, including electric models, could make them more affordable while also fostering economic opportunities. The city government could help to set up an ecosystem where the private sector can consolidate this new industry. Strengthening the bicycle industry would not only support the city’s mobility goals but also generate employment, reinforcing the broader benefits of a bike-friendly urban landscape.

Planning for compact urban growth in co-ordination with public transport and quality public spaces will help mitigate urban sprawl. While mass transit is not yet a pressing necessity, early planning for future transport infrastructure and well-connected public spaces will ensure sustainable urban expansion.

At the same time, Quelimane’s widely used taxi bike system must evolve to meet the needs of a growing city. As urban distances increase, enhancing the comfort, efficiency, and operational conditions of taxi bikes will be essential to maintaining their role as a viable transport option. Upgrading vehicles, introducing electric models, and improving service conditions can ensure that taxi bikes remain a competitive alternative to motorised transport, particularly for middle-income users who might otherwise shift towards car ownership. The government can help to pilot some of these initiatives.

By addressing these four high-leverage interventions, Quelimane can shift towards a model for sustainable urban mobility. Protecting space for cyclists, reshaping transport aspirations, and modernising taxi bikes will collectively enable the city to grow without succumbing to car dependency, ensuring a liveable and economically vibrant urban environment for years to come. Quelimane’s system and high-leverage points are presented in Figure 3.25.

Figure 3.25. Quelimane’s system and high-leverage points
Copy link to Figure 3.25. Quelimane’s system and high-leverage points

HLP 1: Institutionalising space for non-motorised transport to sustain Quelimane’s mobility culture

Quelimane has a unique opportunity to consolidate its position as a leading cycling city by proactively institutionalising the optimal use of road space. The widespread adoption of bicycles has created a naturally calmer traffic environment compared to other urban centres, but this advantage is now at risk as private vehicle ownership – including both cars and motorbikes – continues to grow. Without decisive action, the increasing presence of motorised vehicles will erode the current balance, making it increasingly difficult to reclaim space for active transport in the future.

The causal loop diagram in Figure 3.26 highlights that investing in non-motorised transport (NMT) infrastructure is essential to breaking the reinforcing feedback loop that favours cars and congestion. As illustrated in the diagram, road expansion traditionally increases capacity for mixed traffic, which in turn fuels private vehicle ownership and traffic volume, reinforcing congestion (red arrows). However, by prioritising investment in dedicated cycling and pedestrian infrastructure, Quelimane can shift this dynamic. Expanding protected bike lanes and pedestrian paths, alongside green spaces, will ensure that non‑motorised modes remain attractive and viable transport options (blue arrows). This intervention not only preserves the city’s bike culture but also prevents the structural conditions that drive car dependency.

Furthermore, securing dedicated space for NMT must be complemented by policies and interventions that reinforce its use. Traffic-calming measures, public awareness campaigns, and restrictions on vehicle access in key areas can help sustain the prominence of cycling and walking. Ensuring that NMT infrastructure is fully integrated into urban planning and transport policies will further safeguard these modes from being sidelined as the city develops.

By acting now to institutionalise the optimal use of space, Quelimane can safeguard its cycling culture, mitigate future congestion, and establish a long-term model for sustainable urban mobility. This proactive approach will not only maintain accessibility for cyclists and pedestrians but also prevent the gradual encroachment of car and motorbike dominance, ensuring a more liveable, efficient, and resilient city for future generations.

HLP 2: Redefining mobility aspirations by positioning bicycles as a symbol of modernity

Ensuring the safe and efficient use of bicycles through proper infrastructure is essential, but infrastructure alone will not be enough to sustain Quelimane’s cycling culture. To truly shift transportation habits, societal aspirations must evolve, moving away from the perception that cars and motorbikes represent status and success. Instead, bicycles must be positioned as desirable, modern, and aspirational modes of transport.

The causal loop diagram in Figure 3.26 highlights the role of incentives in shaping transport choices. As illustrated in the area labelled B, political will can also drive incentives that encourage private bike ownership. Strengthening policies that support bicycle adoption – such as subsidies for locally manufactured bikes, tax reductions on imports, or targeted financing options – can reinforce the existing cycling culture while preventing the transition to motorised transport. By ensuring that bicycles remain an accessible and attractive option, these incentives can counterbalance the pressures leading towards increased car ownership.

This cultural shift also requires making high-quality, stylish bicycles more affordable. Currently, such models remain expensive due to import costs, limiting their appeal as an alternative to private vehicles. However, Quelimane has an opportunity to foster a local bicycle manufacturing industry, which would not only reduce costs but also generate employment and economic growth. Strengthening local production could reinforce the visibility of bicycles as a preferred transport option while addressing broader regional challenges related to job creation and industrial development.

The well-established taxi bike sector offers a strong foundation for expanding this transformation. By introducing higher-end bicycles, including electric models, the sector could attract a wider range of users, including middle-income residents who might otherwise transition to motorbikes or cars. Additionally, the growth of this sector could stimulate employment through the expansion of bike repair services, assembly operations, and retail markets.

By positioning bicycles as symbols of modernity and progress – supported by strong governmental incentives – Quelimane can counter the growing social pressures towards car ownership. This shift would not only help sustain the city’s cycling culture but also create a more inclusive, economically vibrant, and environmentally sustainable urban mobility system.

Figure 3.26. Securing active mobility to avoid carbon lock-in
Copy link to Figure 3.26. Securing active mobility to avoid carbon lock-in

HL 3: Integrating compact urban growth with public transport and public space

Quelimane’s urban expansion presents both opportunities and risks for sustainable development. Without proactive planning, the city faces the challenge of uncontrolled sprawl, which could lead to increased reliance on private vehicles and paratransit, further straining urban mobility. To prevent this, it is essential to co-ordinate urban growth with investments in transport infrastructure and public spaces, ensuring a compact, accessible, and environmentally sustainable city.

The causal loop diagram in Figure 3.27 highlights how unplanned peripheral expansion – particularly the spread of informal settlements – limits the availability of public space for future mass transit infrastructure (Area C). As informal settlements grow without structured planning, space for efficient public transport is progressively reduced, reinforcing dependence on paratransit and motorcycles. This self-reinforcing loop makes it increasingly difficult and costly to introduce a structured public transport system in the future. To disrupt this cycle, urban policies must prioritise compact development, ensuring that new settlements integrate transport corridors, designated space for public transport, and pedestrian-friendly infrastructure from the outset.

While Quelimane’s government currently cannot financially sustain an extensive mass transit system, preparing for future deployment is critical. In the short term, upgrading the existing taxi bike system can improve accessibility and reduce the immediate reliance on cars and motorcycles. However, as the city continues to grow, early investments in public transport infrastructure are essential to prevent a trajectory of increasing congestion and inefficiency. The CLD illustrates how reliance on paratransit can become entrenched; without strategic investments in mass transport, the infrastructure gap widens, making transition to a more sustainable system increasingly difficult.

Beyond transport, ensuring sufficient public spaces is crucial for both urban liveability and the long-term viability of public transport. Well-planned public spaces not only facilitate transport infrastructure but also enhance social interaction, economic activity, and environmental resilience. A compact urban form with well-connected public spaces and transit networks will reduce the need for long commutes, alleviate congestion, and encourage a culture of sustainable mobility.

By proactively integrating compact urban growth with transport planning and public space preservation, Quelimane can avoid the pitfalls of unstructured expansion. Taking action now will ensure that the city remains accessible, efficient, and resilient, securing a sustainable urban future for its residents.

HLP 4: Enhancing the role of taxi bikes in an integrated public transport system

Quelimane’s taxi bike system has emerged as a successful and sustainable mobility option, offering an alternative to conventional paratransit services. However, as the city continues to grow, the system must evolve to remain an efficient and viable transport mode. Increasing urban distances and shifting commuter needs could make private vehicles and motorcycles more attractive unless proactive measures are taken to upgrade the taxi bike system and integrate it into the broader public transport network.

The causal loop in diagram in Figure 3.27 highlights how the current limitations of mass public transport (area D) reinforce dependence on paratransit. Without strategic investment, the infrastructure gap widens, increasing reliance on informal transport solutions. To prevent taxi bikes from being sidelined, targeted upgrades should focus on improving their capacity, comfort, and efficiency. Expanding the fleet to include electric bikes and larger models capable of carrying passengers and cargo will enhance service flexibility, making taxi bikes a more competitive option for a growing and diverse urban population.

Upgrading taxi bikes will also play a crucial role in making them attractive to middle- and high-income users who might otherwise shift towards car ownership. Introducing modern, well-designed models with improved safety features and weather protection can position taxi bikes as a practical and aspirational mobility choice. Electrification, in particular, could improve service efficiency, and contribute to sustainability goals.

Additionally, improving the taxi bike system offers economic benefits beyond transportation. Strengthening local bicycle production and assembly capabilities can reduce costs, create employment opportunities, and stimulate economic growth. As previously discussed, by fostering a local industry that produces high‑quality, affordable electric and cargo bikes, Quelimane can reinforce its identity as a cycling city while supporting long-term transport sustainability.

Integrating taxi bikes within a well-planned public transport system will be key to ensuring their continued relevance. This requires dedicated infrastructure, clear regulatory frameworks, and incentives that position taxi bikes as a complementary mode within a broader multimodal network. By making strategic investments now, Quelimane can sustain the success of its taxi bike system while preventing the unchecked expansion of motorised transport, ensuring a more accessible, efficient, and inclusive urban mobility future.

Figure 3.27. Promoting compact urban growth and the role of taxi bikes in the public transport system
Copy link to Figure 3.27. Promoting compact urban growth and the role of taxi bikes in the public transport system

Co-design: A roadmap to systemic change

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Addressing climate change in Mozambique requires systemic transformations at the city level. This is a complex challenge that depends on policymakers’ ability to initiate structural shifts in urban and transport systems, while also fostering changes in mindsets and behavioural patterns. These shifts are not always immediately apparent but are essential for enhancing climate resilience and sustainability. In the context of this report, this raises a fundamental question: what actions are necessary to trigger systemic change and strengthen climate mitigation and adaptation in cities like Beira and Quelimane?

A critical step in answering this question was the identification of high-leverage points (HLPs), as presented in the previous section. The final stage of this process, co-design, aimed to address these leverage points by identifying strategic interventions that can drive systemic change. Participants in the workshops held in Beira and Quelimane engaged with the OECD and UN-Habitat to collaboratively develop targeted actions that respond to these HLPs.

The co-design exercise fostered a structured and inclusive dialogue among diverse stakeholders. This included municipal authorities responsible for urban planning, transport management, and climate adaptation, as well as key actors influencing policy implementation and financing, such as private sector representatives, civil society organisations, and international development partners. Ensuring the effectiveness of policy actions requires breaking silos and building synergies across these diverse perspectives. Without such dialogue, strategies risk being fragmented and unable to capitalise on complementarities and trade-offs across sectors.

The co-design process resulted in three key outcomes. First, it encouraged policymakers and stakeholders to conceptualise policies with a systemic approach, ensuring that interventions are not isolated measures but part of a broader transformation towards a shared long-term vision. This approach moves beyond incremental changes and seeks to drive fundamental structural shifts. Second, it helped operationalise policies by defining measurable indicators and key targets for tracking progress. This ensures that proposed interventions are not only aspirational but also actionable and assessable, allowing decision-makers to monitor systemic evolution over time. Third, the co-design exercise facilitated the identification of key actors and their roles within the urban and transport systems. By analysing the positioning of different stakeholders – whether as enablers, potential allies, or sources of resistance – the process enhances the feasibility of implementation and provides strategies for building broader coalitions of support.

The remainder of this section presents the key actions identified through the co-design exercises conducted in Beira and Quelimane. It is important to emphasise that these outcomes should not be interpreted as prescriptive policy recommendations exclusively for these cities. Instead, they serve as a set of innovative and context-relevant ideas designed to inspire local and national authorities. These insights can guide future policy reforms, inform urban and transport planning instruments (e.g. mobility strategies, climate adaptation frameworks), and support the broader goal of fostering resilient and sustainable urban development in Mozambique.

Co-designing policy strategies in Beira

Beira’s workshop participants were divided into four groups, with each group assigned a specific policy-oriented question to address the high-leverage points. These questions were:

How to avoid future traffic congestion in the city centre?
How to improve the use of space in the city centre to attract urban population growth?
How to create sustainable development in the periphery?
How to channel investment into formal public transport?

Given the interconnected nature of HLPs within the system, some degree of overlap was inevitable, leading to certain actors and issues appearing across multiple HLPs. For example, while urban development is primarily associated with the second HLP, it is also referenced in the first. Similarly, road reallocation, which is most directly linked to the first HLP, is discussed as a strategy for addressing the fourth. These overlaps are significant, as they highlight the necessity of tackling the root causes of carbon lock-in through strategies that incorporate co-ordinated and multi-faceted policy actions.

How to avoid future traffic congestion in the city centre?

As Beira continues to grow, addressing traffic congestion in the city centre has become a pressing challenge. Congestion not only impairs mobility but also affects air quality, economic efficiency, and overall urban liveability (Nadrian et al., 2022[45]). Workshop participants recognised that a comprehensive approach was needed to tackle this issue, integrating public awareness, regulatory enforcement, and improved co-ordination among stakeholders. A key discussion point was the role of civic education in fostering a culture of responsible road use and encouraging the adoption of sustainable transport options. Additionally, participants emphasised the need for stricter traffic regulation enforcement, particularly regarding illegal parking and road safety violations. Collaborative traffic management was also highlighted as a crucial mechanism to ensure long-term urban mobility planning. By aligning enforcement mechanisms, public engagement efforts, and governance structures, Beira can proactively manage congestion and create a more efficient, accessible urban core.

Policy actions:

Strengthening civic education on urban mobility was identified as a foundational measure to promote behavioural change. Public awareness campaigns should inform residents about the negative impacts of congestion and the benefits of using alternative transport modes, such as walking, cycling, and public transport. Schools, community centres, and digital media can serve as platforms for continuous engagement, ensuring that urban mobility awareness becomes embedded in the city’s culture.
Enhancing enforcement of traffic regulations was seen as critical to reducing congestion and promoting safer road use. Implementing a structured system of fines for illegal parking, reckless driving, and unauthorised access to restricted zones can act as a deterrent to behaviours that contribute to congestion. Automated enforcement tools, such as traffic cameras and digital monitoring systems, can improve compliance and ensure consistent application of rules.
Establishing a co-ordinated traffic management system emerged as a key priority. Effective mobility governance requires collaboration between municipal authorities, traffic police, and urban planners to optimise road network efficiency. Joint traffic management strategies, such as real-time traffic signal adjustments and data-driven interventions, can enhance traffic flow and minimise bottlenecks. Proactive planning should also incorporate congestion mitigation measures into future urban development projects to prevent exacerbation of traffic issues.

By implementing these policy actions, together with key partners, Beira can reduce congestion while fostering a more sustainable and orderly urban environment. Strengthening civic education will cultivate a culture of responsible mobility, while stricter enforcement will reinforce compliance with traffic regulations. Improved co-ordination among stakeholders will enable more responsive and adaptive traffic management, ensuring that urban expansion does not compromise mobility. Collectively, these measures will contribute to a more efficient transport system, reducing travel times, enhancing road safety, and improving the quality of life for Beira’s residents.

How to improve the use of space in the city centre to attract urban population growth?

Optimising the use of urban space is a key factor in fostering a dynamic and attractive city centre, encouraging urban population growth and economic activity. In Beira, workshop participants highlighted that inefficient land use, physical barriers to mobility, and weak enforcement of urban planning regulations hinder the city’s potential for structured urban expansion. A more strategic approach to spatial management, including the removal of obstructive elements and stricter regulatory compliance, was seen as essential to creating a well-organised and accessible city centre. Additionally, participants stressed that improving public infrastructure and ensuring adequate urban amenities would make Beira’s central areas more liveable and economically vibrant.

Policy actions:

Reclaiming public space through the removal of physical obstacles was identified as a priority measure. Objects such as temporary tents, electric poles, trees obstructing pathways, and unplanned housing encroachments currently limit mobility and create disorderly environments. Their removal would facilitate better traffic flow, improve accessibility for pedestrians and cyclists, and allow for the development of essential urban infrastructure. Expanding roads where necessary – while ensuring the integration of pedestrian walkways, cycling lanes, and public transport corridors – would create a more efficient and inclusive urban mobility system.
Strengthening legal enforcement of urban planning regulations was seen as critical to ensuring long-term spatial order in the city centre. Strict adherence to zoning laws, building codes, and environmental standards would prevent illegal encroachments and disorganised urban growth. Municipal authorities, in collaboration with private developers and community stakeholders, should enhance regulatory oversight and swiftly address violations to maintain an orderly and sustainable urban landscape.

By implementing these policies, Beira can enhance accessibility, improve safety, and create a more structured urban environment. The expected outcomes include better-organised road networks, improved lighting, and the installation of traffic signals to enhance mobility and security. Additionally, pedestrian-friendly infrastructure such as footbridges will facilitate safe crossings, minimising disruptions to vehicular flow. Expanding public amenities – including recreational spaces, healthcare facilities, schools, and hospitality services – will further enhance the attractiveness of the city centre for both residents and businesses. Collectively, these measures will contribute to making Beira’s core a more functional, inclusive, and appealing urban hub, supporting sustainable growth and economic development.

How to create sustainable development in the periphery?

Ensuring sustainable development in Beira’s periphery is essential for balanced urban growth, economic inclusion, and long-term resilience. Workshop participants identified the need for a more strategic approach to peripheral development, underpinned by strengthened urban planning capacity, improved financial mobilisation, and enhanced community engagement. A key discussion point was the importance of integrating mixed-use development to foster self-sustaining neighbourhoods that reduce dependency on the city centre for employment and services. Additionally, participants highlighted the necessity of investing in critical infrastructure, particularly transport links, to ensure that peripheral areas remain well-connected and fully integrated into Beira’s broader urban fabric.

Policy actions:

Enhancing urban planning capacity for sustainable peripheral development was identified as a priority. Strengthening the skills and technical capacity of urban planners and municipal authorities will enable the design and implementation of comprehensive development strategies. These strategies should prioritise mixed-use developments that integrate residential, commercial, and industrial spaces, fostering local economic activity and reducing the need for long commutes. Additionally, ensuring that transport infrastructure is embedded in planning processes will improve connectivity between the periphery and the city centre, enabling greater access to employment and services.
Mobilising financial resources for infrastructure and services was seen as a fundamental enabler of sustainable peripheral development. Strengthening the ability of local authorities to attract and manage funding – whether through public budgets, private investments, or international financial institutions – will ensure that development initiatives have adequate resources. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can play a critical role in financing infrastructure improvements, particularly in the provision of transport, energy, and water services.
Strengthening community engagement in development planning was considered essential for fostering public support and ensuring that policies reflect local needs. Community participation creates a sense of ownership and encourages residents to contribute to the success of projects, improving their long-term sustainability. Moreover, enhanced engagement can improve transparency and accountability, enabling citizens to monitor progress and provide feedback to local authorities.

By implementing these policy actions, Beira can promote sustainable growth in its peripheral areas, ensuring they develop as well-planned, connected, and economically vibrant neighbourhoods. The expected outcomes include improved transport infrastructure, facilitating smoother mobility between the periphery and the city centre. Well-planned mixed-use development will reduce the need for extensive travel, supporting local employment and services while fostering more self-sufficient communities. Strengthened public service provision, including transport and essential infrastructure, will enhance the overall quality of life for residents, ensuring that peripheral areas are fully integrated into the city’s long-term development strategy.

How to channel investment into formal public transport?

Formalising public transport systems is essential for fostering inclusive, efficient, and sustainable urban mobility. In Beira, workshop participants highlighted that targeted investment in public transport infrastructure and services is needed to enhance accessibility, reduce congestion, and support climate resilience. A key focus was on improving the road network to facilitate the efficient operation of buses and other public transport modes. Additionally, the adoption of electric vehicles was seen as a critical step towards reducing the environmental impact of urban mobility. Participants also emphasised the potential benefits of integrating green spaces within transport hubs, ensuring that urban mobility investments contribute to a more liveable and sustainable city.

Policy actions:

Expanding and upgrading road infrastructure was identified as a fundamental prerequisite for strengthening the public transport system. Investing in the construction and maintenance of roads will improve connectivity and ensure that buses, trams, and other formal public transport services can operate safely and efficiently. Special attention should be given to the development of dedicated public transport lanes to enhance travel times, reduce congestion, and improve service reliability. Additionally, an inclusive road network that prioritises accessibility will ensure that all residents – regardless of their location – can benefit from an efficient transport system.
Promoting the transition to electric public transport vehicles was considered a forward-looking policy that aligns with global climate goals. The adoption of electric buses and trams would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable urban environment. To support this transition, investments in charging infrastructure and renewable energy integration should be prioritised, ensuring that the shift towards electric mobility is both feasible and scalable.
Integrating green spaces within transport infrastructure was seen as a strategy to enhance urban liveability while reinforcing climate adaptation efforts. By incorporating parks, pedestrian-friendly areas, and recreational spaces around transport hubs, the city can create multifunctional environments that serve both mobility and social purposes. Green spaces not only provide respite from the urban landscape but also act as carbon sinks, helping to mitigate the environmental impacts of urbanisation.

By implementing these policy actions, Beira can develop a more efficient and sustainable public transport system that enhances accessibility while minimising its environmental footprint. The expected outcomes include the creation of a well-connected and inclusive transport network, ensuring that all residents can access safe and reliable mobility options. The introduction of electric vehicles will contribute to reducing emissions, improving air quality, and advancing the city’s climate resilience. Furthermore, the integration of green spaces with transport facilities will enhance the overall quality of life, creating healthier and more attractive urban environments for residents and visitors alike.

Indicators and targets for Beira

During the workshop in Beira, stakeholders engaged in an exercise to define policy objectives, measurable indicators, and targets to guide the implementation of urban development policies towards 2050. This exercise, structured around the four high-leverage points identified in prior discussions, provided a framework for stakeholders to articulate and quantify their aspirations for Beira’s future. The process not only helped refine policy priorities but also strengthened participants’ capacity to think critically about outcomes, monitoring frameworks, and the cross-sectoral nature of urban indicators.

Table 3.1 presents the policy objectives discussed by each group of participants, the series of indicators identified, as well as targets set to ensure Beira’s vision. While some objectives lent themselves more easily to quantifiable measures, others proved more challenging, revealing gaps in data availability and technical knowledge. In several cases, participants found it difficult to move beyond general aspirations to define concrete targets, highlighting the need for further refinement and technical support in the development of a robust monitoring framework. The results from this exercise can be summarised as follows:

The first group focused on strategies to mitigate future congestion in Beira’s city centre. They identified key indicators such as the number of rehabilitated abandoned buildings repurposed for parking, the total new parking space created (in square metres), and the number of community-led partnerships and initiatives aimed at addressing congestion. The targets set for 2050 included ensuring that 80% of vehicles are parked within designated municipal parking facilities and achieving full operationalisation of all alternative routes. While these measures aim to alleviate parking constraints, they do not fully capture broader mobility challenges, such as demand-side interventions to reduce car dependency. Complementary indicators – such as average commute times, modal share of non-motorised and public transport, or congestion levels – could provide a more comprehensive assessment of progress towards sustainable urban mobility.
The second group addressed how urban planning could enhance the appeal of Beira’s city centre, attract population growth, and strengthen economic activity. They proposed measuring the amount of revenue collected through visits by national and foreign tourists, as well as municipal taxes paid by residents. Their target for 2050 was a net increase in the city’s revenue. However, this approach presents limitations, as municipal revenue alone does not fully capture the broader quality of life and attractiveness of the city centre. Additional indicators – such as population density, commercial space occupancy rates, or the percentage of land dedicated to mixed-use development – could provide a more nuanced picture of urban vibrancy. Likewise, defining specific revenue growth targets or linking them to economic productivity metrics would help sharpen the monitoring framework.
The third group focused on fostering sustainable development in Beira’s peripheral areas, emphasising the expansion of public infrastructure and services. Proposed indicators included the number of newly developed streets, schools, health centres, and markets, as well as total public infrastructure spending. Their targets for 2050 included a decrease in pollution levels, higher satisfaction with public services among households, and improved mobility for residents. While these indicators capture key dimensions of peripheral development, they could be further refined to assess the adequacy and accessibility of services. For instance, indicators such as the proportion of the population living within a 15-minute walk of essential services, improvements in air quality indices, or travel time reductions to employment centres could strengthen the monitoring framework. Furthermore, defining specific benchmarks for pollution reduction and mobility improvements would enhance clarity in measuring progress.
The fourth group examined the need to expand and improve formal public transport services, particularly in response to Beira’s reliance on informal transport. They identified key indicators such as accessibility by driving time to current and future urban areas, accessibility by public transport (measured as travel time to key destinations), and the number of people relying on informal transport services. Their primary target for 2050 was a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. While reducing emissions is a crucial long-term objective, achieving this goal requires more granular targets linked to modal shifts and transport efficiency. Additional indicators – such as public transport ridership rates, fleet electrification levels, or investments in non-motorised transport infrastructure – could help track progress more effectively. Furthermore, defining interim targets for transport system expansion, affordability, and reliability would provide clearer pathways to the overarching goal of decarbonisation.

Group	Objectives	Indicators	Targets for 2050
1	Avoid future traffic congestion in the city centre	Number of rehabilitated abandoned buildings; new space for parking (m2); number of partnerships and activities involving communities in search of a common solution.	80% of vehicles parked within the municipal park;100% of alternative routes open for circulation
2	Improve the use of space in the city centre to attract urban population growth	Amount of revenue collected through visits by national and foreign tourists, and resident taxes.	Net increase in the city’s revenue
3	Create sustainable development in the periphery	Number of new appropriate streets, schools, health centres, and markets; spending on public infrastructure	Decrease in pollution levels; higher household satisfaction with public services; increase in people’s mobility
4	Channel investments into "formal" public transport	Accessibility (driving time) to current areas of the city and those that may appear over time; accessibility by public systems (time to reach certain areas of the city using public transport systems); people using informal transport system.	Reduction of GHG transport emissions.

Source: Authors’ compilation.

Building capacity for data-driven policy implementation in Beira

Beyond producing measurable outputs, this exercise contributed to building the capacity of local stakeholders in key ways. Many participants initially struggled with articulating indicators and targets, revealing gaps in experience with outcome-based planning. However, by engaging in structured discussions, they developed a stronger appreciation for the importance of defining clear metrics and tracking progress over time.

A particularly valuable aspect of the exercise was its encouragement of intersectoral thinking. Participants began to see connections between different policy areas – such as how improved transport accessibility could drive economic activity, or how urban density could influence municipal revenue. This systems-thinking approach is crucial for ensuring that policies are designed with long-term, integrated solutions in mind rather than isolated interventions.

Going forward, further technical assistance may be needed to refine the proposed indicators and establish realistic, actionable targets. This could include training on data collection methodologies, participatory monitoring approaches, and best practices for linking indicators to broader sustainability goals. By embedding a robust monitoring culture within policy processes, Beira can strengthen its ability to track progress and make data-driven adjustments towards a more sustainable and inclusive urban future.

Beira’s actors shaping transformation policies

While identifying transformative actions, participants in Beira’s workshop worked together to identify those actors that would matter for the implementation of these policies. This allowed to build a stakeholder mapping for Beira. This mapping is presented in Figure 3.28. It shows that there is strong support from key government entities and international actors, offering a solid foundation for addressing the HLPs. However, opposition from political parties and higher levels of government, as well as the concerns of disadvantaged groups will require careful negotiation, inclusive policy design, and targeted communication strategies to ensure successful policy adoption and implementation.

The stakeholder analysis from Beira’s workshop provides a distinct perspective on the actors involved in the implementation of these policies in the city’s urban and transport systems. The distribution of actors across the four quadrants indicates the political and social dynamics that will shape the effectiveness of any policy action aimed at transforming the city by 2050.

For avoiding future traffic congestion in the city centre, the local government emerges as a strong supporter with high influence (Panel A in Figure 3.28). This provides a solid institutional foundation for advancing necessary policy measures. However, the presence of the central government and local opposition political groups as low-influence opponents suggests potential resistance rooted in political dynamics rather than direct decision-making power. Civil society, non-governmental organisations, religious leaders, and local leaders support the initiative but have limited influence, indicating the need for strategies to amplify their role. Strengthening engagement with the central government, developing multi-level governance mechanisms, and ensuring cross-level policy alignment will be essential to prevent bureaucratic bottlenecks and political resistance.

Optimising land use in the city centre to attract urban population growth presents a significant challenge due to opposition from high-income groups, who were considered to hold considerable influence (Panel B in Figure 3.28). Potential resistance from this group may stem from concerns over property values, land-use changes, or shifts in socio-economic dynamics. At the same time, disadvantaged populations, despite their lower influence, were also considered to oppose the initiative, potentially due to fears of exclusion or displacement. The President of the Municipality was seen as a high-influence supporter, who could play a crucial role in advancing this agenda, but the absence of additional supporting actors, particularly among civil society or grassroots organisations, suggests a need for broader coalition-building. Addressing concerns from both high-income and disadvantaged populations through inclusive urban planning and equitable spatial policies will be key to ensuring successful implementation.

For creating sustainable development in the periphery, donor organisations were positioned as high-influence supporters, representing a crucial source of funding and technical expertise (Panel C in Figure 3.28). However, participants assumed opposition from local political groups, which suggests that governance and political considerations may hinder the adoption of proposed interventions. Disadvantaged populations, despite being primary beneficiaries, were considered to express opposition, likely due to concerns over affordability, accessibility, or past experiences of inadequate service delivery. Civil society organisations, while considered to be supportive, hold limited influence, reinforcing the need for stronger grassroots engagement. To overcome resistance, policies should ensure that development in the periphery is inclusive, participatory, and responsive to the needs of vulnerable communities while leveraging donor funding in ways that align with local priorities.

Figure 3.28. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies in Beira
Copy link to Figure 3.28. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies in Beira

To attract investment into formal public transport, the local government and non-governmental entities were seen as important supporters. This indicates a favourable policy environment for advancing reforms (Diagram D in Figure 3.28). However, community leaders, while supportive, were considered to have low influence, meaning that public engagement and demand-side pressures may be insufficient to drive sustained investment. Ensuring financial and political commitment to public transport improvements will require not only institutional support but also efforts to build a strong constituency for sustainable mobility, including private sector stakeholders and user groups.

Quelimane’s policy actions

As in Beira, workshop participants in Quelimane were divided into four groups, each addressing an HLP identified in the diagnostic exercise to drive systemic change. To this end, each group addressed one of the following questions:

How to develop streets that utilise space efficiently and sustainably?
How to shift aspirations from large cars to sustainable cycling?
How to create sustainable development in the periphery, including public transport?
How to upgrade taxi bike services to ensure future success?

Given the interconnected nature of these HLPs, policy actions naturally overlapped across them. Participants also worked on defining targets and indicators and identifying stakeholders who could either support or oppose the implementation of the proposed policies. Through this exercise, they aimed to develop strategies to curb carbon-intensive growth while enhancing accessibility, equity, and sustainability in Quelimane.

How to develop streets that utilise space efficiently and sustainably?

Efficient and sustainable street development is essential for fostering an inclusive, liveable, and environmentally resilient urban environment in Quelimane. Workshop participants identified the need for a holistic approach that integrates governance, infrastructure investment, environmental management, and public engagement. A key discussion point was the importance of ensuring that streets are designed to support multiple modes of transport, including pedestrians, cyclists, and public transport users, rather than being dominated by private vehicles. Additionally, participants highlighted the role of green infrastructure in improving urban resilience and the necessity of strengthening solid waste management to maintain clean and functional streets.

Policy actions:

Strengthening governance to support sustainable street development was identified as a foundational requirement. Transparent and accountable governance structures are needed to ensure that urban planning prioritises inclusive, long-term street design. Policies should promote streets that accommodate diverse transport needs, ensuring they remain functional as the city grows and demand for mobility increases. Institutional co-ordination among municipal authorities, urban planners, and transport agencies will be critical in implementing sustainable street designs effectively.
Investing in green infrastructure to enhance street sustainability was highlighted as an important policy action. Green elements such as tree-lined streets, urban gardens, and permeable surfaces can provide essential environmental services, including improved air quality, rainwater absorption to reduce flooding, and mitigation of the urban heat island effect. These interventions contribute to a more attractive and comfortable urban environment, encouraging walking and cycling while enhancing climate resilience.
Promoting sustainable transport options was seen as essential to reducing congestion, air pollution, and reliance on private vehicles. Expanding dedicated cycle lanes, pedestrian walkways, and bus lanes will ensure that streets facilitate safe and efficient movement for all users. Encouraging the use of bicycles and public transport can improve urban mobility while also contributing to lower carbon emissions and healthier lifestyles.
Improving solid waste management to maintain clean and functional streets was recognised as a key priority. Establishing systematic waste collection, recycling, and disposal mechanisms will prevent littering and illegal dumping, ensuring that streets remain clean and environmentally sustainable. Encouraging waste reuse – such as converting organic waste into compost or biofertiliser – can support local agricultural activities and contribute to a circular economy.
Raising public awareness through education and community engagement was identified as crucial for the long-term success of sustainable street initiatives. Public education campaigns should inform residents about the benefits of sustainable street design, green infrastructure, and environmentally friendly transport options. Community engagement initiatives can foster a sense of shared responsibility, encouraging residents to actively participate in maintaining clean, safe, and accessible public spaces.
Establishing a robust monitoring and evaluation framework was considered essential to track the effectiveness of street development initiatives. Regular assessments should be conducted to measure progress, identify areas for improvement, and ensure that policies are being implemented as intended. Data collection and performance indicators should be used to guide decision-making, ensuring that interventions remain relevant and effective over time.

By implementing these policy actions, Quelimane can create an urban environment that is not only more accessible and efficient but also environmentally sustainable. The expected outcomes include improved mobility through well-designed transport infrastructure, cleaner and healthier streets due to better waste management, and enhanced urban resilience through green infrastructure. These measures will contribute to a higher quality of life for residents while supporting the city’s long-term sustainability goals.

How to shift aspirations from large cars to sustainable cycling?

Encouraging residents of Quelimane to view bicycles as a desirable and practical alternative to private cars requires a multifaceted approach that combines infrastructure investment, financial incentives, and cultural transformation. Workshop participants recognised that promoting cycling as a mainstream transport option would not only reduce congestion and improve air quality but also foster a healthier urban lifestyle. A key discussion point was the importance of improving cycling infrastructure to enhance safety and accessibility. Additionally, participants highlighted the need for financial support mechanisms and innovative promotional strategies to reshape public perceptions of bicycles as a modern and aspirational mode of transport.

Policy actions:

Expanding and upgrading cycle infrastructure was identified as a critical policy action. Developing a network of dedicated cycle lanes will improve safety and encourage more residents to adopt cycling. Retrofitting existing roads to include cycling infrastructure will ensure that cyclists have safe and direct access to key destinations across the city.
Improving bicycle quality and establishing a local cycling industry was seen as essential to supporting widespread bicycle use. Ensuring that bicycles are durable, affordable, and easily accessible will encourage more residents to use them for daily commutes. Establishing bicycle and motorbike repair workshops will provide essential maintenance services while also creating local employment opportunities, contributing to the growth of a sustainable transport economy.
Providing financial incentives for cycling was highlighted as an effective means of reducing economic barriers to bicycle ownership and use. Creating credit schemes for bicycle taxi drivers and offering tax reductions on bicycle acquisition and registration would make cycling more affordable for residents. These financial policies will help expand access to bicycles and encourage their adoption as a viable transport option.
Promoting electric bicycles (e‑bikes) as an innovative mobility solution was seen as a way to increase the appeal of cycling while reducing physical effort. E‑bikes combine the benefits of cycling with the convenience of assisted mobility, making them particularly attractive for longer commutes and diverse user groups. Awareness campaigns can highlight the advantages of e‑bikes, such as reduced emissions, lower transport costs, and enhanced urban mobility.
Using urban marketing and eco-tourism to reinforce Quelimane’s identity as a “City of Bicycles” was recognised as a strategic initiative to transform public perceptions of cycling. Marketing campaigns can highlight the environmental, economic, and health benefits of bicycles, promoting them as an aspirational and modern mode of transport. Additionally, the development of eco‑tourism routes featuring scenic cycling paths and cultural attractions will position Quelimane as a leading destination for sustainable tourism, bringing economic benefits while reinforcing cycling as an integral part of the city’s identity.

By implementing these policy actions, participants agreed that Quelimane coud foster a cycling culture that prioritises safety, affordability, and accessibility. The expected outcomes include improved cycling conditions, a reduction in road accidents, and increased bicycle use across all demographics. As more residents opt for bicycles over cars, traffic congestion will decrease, air quality will improve, and the city will attract eco‑tourism, boosting local economic activity. Over time, cycling will become embedded in the city’s transport culture, positioning Quelimane as a regional leader in sustainable urban mobility.

How to create sustainable development in the periphery, including public transport?

Ensuring sustainable development in Quelimane’s peripheral areas is essential for promoting balanced urban growth and improving residents’ quality of life. Workshop participants highlighted that a holistic approach is needed, one that integrates inclusive governance, investment in cycling infrastructure, and improved environmental sanitation. A key discussion point was the importance of engaging local communities in the planning and decision-making process to ensure that development initiatives align with residents’ needs. Additionally, participants emphasised the role of non-motorised transport in improving accessibility and mobility, particularly for low-income communities, while also underscoring the need for better sanitation services to enhance public health and environmental sustainability.

Policy actions:

Strengthening inclusive governance in peripheral development was identified as a critical step. Ensuring that all stakeholders – including local communities, businesses, and government agencies – are involved in urban planning will help align development initiatives with residents’ needs. By promoting collaborative governance, the city can foster a sense of ownership and commitment among all actors, ensuring that peripheral development is both inclusive and sustainable.
Expanding cycling infrastructure to support sustainable mobility was seen as a key policy action. Constructing dedicated cycle paths in peripheral areas will provide residents with safe and efficient transport options, reducing dependence on private vehicles or inadequate public transport. Cycling offers an affordable and environmentally friendly alternative, particularly for low-income residents, while also helping to decrease congestion and emissions. Integrating cycling into urban mobility planning will ensure that peripheral areas are well-connected to the rest of the city.
Improving sanitation services and solid waste management was recognised as essential to ensuring a clean and healthy urban environment. Establishing regular waste collection services and organising community‑led cleaning campaigns will help prevent the accumulation of waste, which contributes to the spread of diseases such as malaria and waterborne illnesses. Involving residents in environmental stewardship initiatives will reinforce sustainable practices and ensure long-term improvements in sanitation.

By implementing these policy actions, Quelimane can create a more sustainable and liveable environment in its peripheral areas. The expected outcomes include improved access to municipal services, enhanced public health through better sanitation, and a reduction in transport-related emissions. Strengthening cycling infrastructure will improve mobility and connectivity, while inclusive governance will ensure that development efforts reflect the aspirations of the local population. Collectively, these measures will contribute to a more balanced and resilient urban growth strategy for the city.

How to upgrade taxi bike services to ensure future success?

Taxi bike services play a crucial role in Quelimane’s urban transport system, providing an affordable and accessible mobility option for residents. Workshop participants emphasised that upgrading this mode of transport is essential to ensuring its long-term success while improving safety, efficiency, and professionalism. Key discussions centred around the need for licensing regulations to enhance the quality of service and the importance of investing in dedicated infrastructure to improve operational safety. By formalising and supporting taxi bike services, Quelimane can strengthen this sustainable transport mode and integrate it more effectively into the city’s broader mobility network.

Policy actions:

Introducing mandatory licensing for taxi bike operators was identified as a critical measure to improve safety and professionalise the sector. Establishing a licensing system will ensure that all drivers undergo proper training, adhere to traffic regulations, and operate responsibly. This policy will not only reduce the risk of accidents but also enhance the credibility of taxi bike services, recognising them as an integral component of the city’s transport system.
Expanding dedicated infrastructure for taxi bike operations was considered essential for improving both safety and efficiency. Developing exclusive cycle paths and designated lanes for taxi bikes will enable them to operate without interference from motor vehicles, reducing the likelihood of collisions and ensuring smoother travel. Infrastructure improvements should also include designated pick-up and drop-off zones, ensuring better organisation and reducing congestion in high-demand areas.

By implementing these policy actions, Quelimane can foster a safer, more professional, and well-integrated taxi bike industry. The expected outcomes include improved road safety through regulated licensing, a more efficient and organised transport service, and enhanced mobility for residents. Supporting taxi bike services within a structured framework will contribute to the city’s overall transport resilience, ensuring that this sustainable mobility option continues to thrive as Quelimane grows.

Indicators and targets for Quelimane

During the workshop held in Quelimane, stakeholders participated in a structured exercise to define policy objectives, measurable indicators, and targets for the city’s sustainable urban development by 2050. The discussions revolved around the high-leverage points, ensuring that policy priorities were linked to concrete monitoring frameworks.

Table 3.2 provides detailed information on the indicators and targets proposed to guide the policy actions proposed by the participants. Beyond identifying technical outputs, the process pushed participants to adopt a results-oriented approach, encouraging them to think critically about how to define progress. While some groups successfully developed specific indicators and targets, others encountered challenges in setting precise benchmarks. This highlighted gaps in technical capacity and data availability, reinforcing the need for further refinement. The discussions also helped participants recognise the interconnected nature of urban issues, demonstrating how mobility, environmental quality, and public services influence each other. The results from this exercise can be summarised as follows:

The first group concentrated on strategies to create streets that optimise space use while promoting environmental sustainability. Their proposed indicators included carbon emissions levels, the number of trips made using sustainable transport modes, the installation of energy-efficient public lighting, and air and water quality levels measured through pollution indicators. The group set ambitious targets for 2050: increasing biodiversity by 60%, cutting carbon emissions by 40%, ensuring that 80% of trips use sustainable transport, improving energy efficiency by 30%, and enhancing air and water quality by 60% and 80%, respectively. Although these indicators provide a strong foundation for tracking sustainability improvements, additional metrics could offer a more comprehensive assessment of urban transformation. For instance, measuring the share of road space allocated to pedestrians and cyclists, monitoring the expansion of green infrastructure, or tracking the reduction of particulate matter (e.g. PM2.5) concentrations would complement the proposed indicators. Establishing baseline data for biodiversity and pollution levels is also essential to accurately measure progress over time.
The second group explored how to promote a cultural shift from private car ownership to increased bicycle use. Their proposed indicators included the number of bicycles purchased, the volume of cyclists on roads, the decline in motorised vehicle ownership, the quantity of fuel sold, and the number of eco-tourism points designed for cyclists. To achieve their vision, the group set targets such as increasing the use of sustainable transport, growing the number of electric vehicles, reducing fossil fuel sales by 60%, and positioning Quelimane as an eco-tourism hub by 2050. These proposed indicators reflect key aspects of sustainable mobility but could benefit from further refinement. For example, measuring the modal share of cycling, assessing the availability of bicycle parking infrastructure, and tracking the expansion of dedicated cycling lanes would provide a more precise picture of progress. Additionally, establishing interim targets – such as achieving a 30% reduction in fuel sales by 2030 – would help maintain momentum and assess whether policy measures are effective.
The third group focused on fostering sustainable urban growth in Quelimane’s peripheral areas, with an emphasis on improving public transport and expanding access to essential services. Their proposed indicators included investment levels in built infrastructure, mapping of essential services, average travel times, and the degree of urbanisation. The group set ambitious targets for 2050, aiming for 90% of the population to have access to basic public services, improvements in community health outcomes, and a significant reduction in traffic accidents. Although these objectives align with sustainable development priorities, greater specificity in the indicators would enhance their effectiveness. More detailed measures, such as the proportion of the population within a 15-minute walk of schools and health facilities, reductions in average commuting times, and the percentage of new urban developments integrating public transport networks, would provide stronger monitoring tools. Setting clear benchmarks for accident reduction – such as halving road fatalities by 2050 – would further enhance the precision of these targets.
The fourth group examined strategies to professionalise and improve bike taxi services in Quelimane. Their proposed indicators included the number of bike taxi drivers by city location and the number of individuals interested in entering the profession. To formalise and regulate the sector, the group set targets for 2050, including ensuring that all bike taxi drivers are registered and licensed with ATAMOZ, improving service quality through mandatory reflective vests and helmets, and expanding the network of bike lanes. While these measures provide a solid framework for enhancing bike taxi services, additional indicators could offer a more in-depth evaluation of progress. Customer satisfaction levels, average earnings of bike taxi operators, and the percentage of total trips completed via bike taxis would help assess the impact of formalisation. Furthermore, establishing incremental targets – such as licensing 50% of operators by 2030 – could create a clearer roadmap for achieving long-term goals.

Group	Objectives	Indicators	Targets for 2050
1	Develop streets that use space sustainably	Level of carbon emissions; number of trips in sustainable means of transport; number of public lights with energy-saving technology; air quality levels (levels of different pollutants); water quality.	Increase in biodiversity (60%); reduction of carbon emissions (40%); increased use of sustainable means of transport (80%); increased energy efficiency (30%); improved air quality (60%); improved water quality (80%).
2	Changing trends from owning large cars to improved bicycles	Number of bicycles bought; number of cyclists on road; number of motorised vehicles; number of eco-tourism points for cyclists; quantity of fuel sold.	Increased use of sustainable transport; increased number of electric vehicles; 60% reduction in the sale of fossil fuels; and make Quelimane an eco-tourist city
3	Create sustainable development in the periphery including public transport	Amount of investment in built infrastructure; mapping of services; average driving time; urbanisation level.	90% of the population with access to basic public services; increase the health levels of the community; reduction in the number of accidents.
4	Improving bike taxi services to ensure their success in the future	Number of taxi drivers by city location; number of people interested in starting a taxi service.	By 2050, all taxi drivers registered and licensed with ATAMOZ; improve the service quality using reflecting vests and helmets; increased number of bike lanes.

Source: Authors’ compilation.

Building capacity for data-driven policy implementation in Quelimane

This exercise played a crucial role in building local stakeholders’ capacity to design and evaluate policy implementation frameworks. Many participants initially faced difficulties in linking their policy objectives to measurable indicators and targets. However, through structured discussions, they gained a deeper understanding of the importance of defining clear benchmarks and using evidence-based approaches to track progress.

A key takeaway from the exercise was the recognition that urban challenges are interlinked and require integrated solutions. Participants began to appreciate the synergies between different policy areas, such as the ways in which mobility policies can influence economic activity, environmental health, and social equity. This systems-thinking approach is essential for ensuring that urban interventions are mutually reinforcing and contribute to a broader vision of sustainability.

To enhance the effectiveness of policy monitoring in Quelimane, additional technical support may be needed. Future initiatives could focus on refining proposed indicators, defining clearer baselines, and developing participatory monitoring mechanisms. Establishing an urban observatory – responsible for tracking key metrics and engaging local stakeholders in data collection – could institutionalise monitoring efforts and enhance accountability. By embedding a culture of evidence-based planning, the city can strengthen its ability to make data-driven policy adjustments and achieve its long-term sustainability goals.

Quelimane’s actors shaping transformation policies

As in the case of Beira, during Quelimane’s workshop, participants identified the actors that could affect the implementation of transformative policies. Figure 3.29 presents the stakeholder mapping resulting from this exercise, providing insights into the diverse groups that will either support or oppose the implementation of policy actions aimed at addressing high-leverage points in the urban and transport systems. The distribution of actors across the four quadrants highlights both the areas of strength and the potential obstacles to achieving the desired urban transformations by 2050.

For developing streets that utilise space efficiently and sustainably, development co-operation agencies emerge as the primary high-influence supporters, suggesting strong potential for external financial and technical assistance (Panel A in Figure 3.29). However, participants anticipated significant opposition from the central and provincial governments, as well as from other political parties, which indicates potential political and administrative resistance to spatial reorganisation efforts, as well as a lack of multi-level governance mechanisms. Additionally, elite groups, while possessing low influence, were anticipated to oppose this initiative, likely due to vested interests in existing urban layouts that prioritise private vehicle ownership and exclusive land-use patterns. Civil society organisations (CSOs), while supportive, were seen as having limited influence, indicating a gap in grassroots advocacy that could be crucial for policy traction. Addressing these challenges will require promoting a constructive dialogue with national and regional government bodies to align urban development priorities and mitigate political resistance while strengthening local advocacy networks.

Shifting aspirations from large cars to sustainable cycling could benefit from considerable high-influence support from the bicycle industry, taxi bike operators, Quelimane’s municipal tourism and marketing departments, and, overall, the local government (Panel B in Figure 3.29). This signals an institutional and commercial interest in cycling as a viable transport mode. However, opposition from car drivers, fossil fuel sellers, and entrepreneurs presents a significant economic barrier, as these actors stand to lose from reduced private car reliance. The automotive industry, though lower in influence, was also considered to oppose the transition, reinforcing concerns about economic displacement. On the other hand, environmental NGOs, pedestrians, the Ministry of Health, and the public transport department, while lower in influence, were considered supportive, reflecting the broader health and sustainability benefits of increased cycling. To advance this agenda, policies should emphasise economic incentives for sustainable mobility, such as investment in cycling infrastructure, financial support for the bicycle industry, and public awareness campaigns demonstrating the benefits of reduced car dependency.

Promoting sustainable development in the periphery, including public transport, was considered to be primarily supported by the City Council, a high-influence actor with direct control over urban planning policies (Panel C in Figure 3.29). However, participants anticipated strong opposition from the central, provincial, and district governments, which suggests a real governance challenge, where local and national priorities may not be fully aligned. Resistance from administrative figures, such as the permanent secretary and head of locality, further indicates bureaucratic hurdles that could impede progress. While councillors, heads of posts, and directors were considered to be supportive, their lower influence limits their ability to drive substantive policy change. Overcoming this opposition will require political negotiation and co‑ordinated urban planning efforts to ensure that peripheral development aligns with national economic and infrastructure strategies.

Upgrading taxi bike services for long-term success, was seen to be strongly backed by the Zambezia Taxi and Motorcycle Drivers Association (CACQ) and the Municipal Council, indicating strong support from both transport service providers and local authorities (Panel D in Figure 3.29). However, the Zambezia Provincial Transport Directorate (DOTZ), as a high-influence opponent, presents a regulatory challenge. Opposition from private motor vehicle owners, although lower in influence, reflects tensions over the use of public road space. The Zambezia Public Transport Association (ATPZ) was considered to be supportive but having limited influence, highlighting the need for broader institutional backing. Addressing regulatory resistance will require integrating taxi bike services into formal transport planning frameworks while ensuring that regulatory structures balance competition and service quality.

Figure 3.29. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies in Quelimane
Copy link to Figure 3.29. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies in Quelimane

Overall, the findings underscore the challenges of multi-level governance alignment, strategic stakeholder engagement, and evidence-based advocacy to overcome resistance and build coalitions for sustainable urban transformation. Ensuring policy success will require balancing economic and political interests while strengthening institutional capacity for long-term urban and transport development in Quelimane.

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← 1. Agglomeration economies refer to the concentration of businesses and workers in a single area, which can enhance productivity, innovation, and efficiency (Klaesson, Johansson and Karlsson, 2013[38]).

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