This chapter applies a systems thinking approach to the urban and transport sectors in the intermediary Kenyan cities of Nakuru and Kiambu. It presents the main trends shaping urbanisation and car dependence, as well as institutional frameworks, focusing on the interplay between land-use planning, transport infrastructure, and environmental outcomes. Through participatory workshops, the chapter explores how local actors envision their cities in 2050 and maps the dynamics currently shaping urban growth and accessibility. Using causal loop diagrams and system mapping, it identifies how different components of the system – such as public investment, informal transport, and road expansion – interact to influence emissions and mobility choices. The analysis reveals structural patterns that drive current development trajectories and explores how they may evolve over time.
Climate Mitigation in Intermediary Cities
Abstract
A systems approach can support Kenyan intermediary cities in transforming early and adopting a more sustainable development pathway. As Kenya undergoes its rural-to-urban transition, there is a risk that policymakers and society may view trends like the rapid growth of private vehicle ownership, air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, urban sprawl, and fast land conversion as inevitable costs of development and urbanisation. This has been the experience of many countries and cities around the world. As a result, efforts have often focused more on adapting to or minimising the negative impacts of carbon-intensive activities and lifestyle choices, rather than addressing the root causes within urban systems that drive these outcomes.
To move forward, it is crucial to recognise that trends such as rising emissions, pollution, and other environmental and health challenges are not inevitable. They are the result of a series of decisions and actions, including investments, policies, regulations, advertising, and education. These factors shape how cities are organised and influence the daily choices and behaviours that are available, affordable, and convenient for the population. As such, identifying these factors and understanding the way they interact with each other, allows to think about the necessary actions to change the structure of our systems, and the trends we observe.
This chapter presents the results of applying the systems-based methodology introduced in Chapter 1 to the counties of Kiambu and Nakuru. It outlines the vision and dynamics characterising their urban and transport systems, with the main objective of identifying high-leverage points that can help shift current outcomes towards more sustainable futures. The chapter also introduces innovative policy ideas developed through a co-design exercise. Together, these insights lay the groundwork for the recommendations in Chapter 4, which aim to support a transition towards more sustainable and inclusive urban development pathways that preserve and enhance the sustainable mobility assets these cities still retain. Rather than viewing unsustainable trends as inevitable, the analysis identifies opportunities for system change, where targeted investments and planning decisions can steer urban growth away from car dependency. By focusing on strategic interventions at key leverage points, the chapter seeks to empower local and national stakeholders to shape urbanisation in ways that promote accessibility, reduce emissions, and improve well-being.
Kenya has the opportunity of defining a new urbanisation model
Kenya’s urban population will continue growing in the coming decades. As shown in Figure 2.1, in 2020, Kenya’s urban areas hosted almost 39 million people (81% of its total population). By 2050, estimates suggest that the urban population will reach 69.8 million people, accounting for 93% of its total population. In other words, within three decades, Kenya’s urban population is projected to increase by almost 80%. As such, there is a key opportunity to change future economic, environmental, and social outcomes via strategic decisions that can help in planning and shaping cities differently.
Note: Urban population and share in total population between 2020-50.
Source: OECD/SWAC (2024[1]).
If urban expansion continues as business as usual, it will lead to rapid land conversion and increased CO2 emissions. Projections of urban land expansion suggest that, without significant changes, urban areas will keep growing at a fast pace for the next three decades. Figure 2.2 shows the expected increase in urban surface (i.e. built-up area of urban agglomerations) for every five years between 2020 and 2050 in Kenya. For instance, between 2020 and 2025 the total built-up area is expected to increase by 16%. Moreover, the accumulated effects of its growth rate for the next decades will be significant. Indeed, the built-up area will almost double its size by 2050 from approximately 33 000 to 63 000 km2, equivalent to a 92% growth. These patterns show that the urban’ surface’s accumulated growth rate in Kenya has been higher than its urban population growth. In other words, urban growth – on average – is becoming more expansive than compact (Seto et al., 2011[2]). The latter scenario brings critical challenges for county governments such as addressing an increasing demand for public services delivery and housing, while limiting negative effects on rural households, biodiversity, and the environment (Profiroiu et al., 2020[3]).
Note: Urban surface (built-up area) at five-year intervals and accumulated growth rate from 2020 to 2050.
Source: OECD/SWAC (2024[1]).
While Kenya urbanises, GHG emissions are growing
Greenhouse gas emissions in Kenya have risen steadily over the past two decades. In 2000, total emissions stood at 41.3 MtCO₂e, increasing to nearly 108 MtCO₂e by 2020 (see Figure 2.3). This growth reflects Kenya’s expanding economy, population growth, and increasing demand for energy, transport, and agricultural production. Emissions grew gradually in the early 2000s, but more pronounced increases occurred from 2006 to 2008 and again from 2015 onwards. In response to this growing emissions trajectory, Kenya has committed to ambitious climate action under the Paris Agreement. In its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in 2020, the country pledged to reduce its GHG emissions by 32% by 2030 relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (Republic of Kenya, 2020[4]). This target is partially conditional: 13% of the reduction is unconditional, to be achieved with domestic resources, while the remaining 19% is conditional on international support, including climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.
Kenya needs to avoid car-dependency
Revisiting the structure of the land-use and transport systems that are being put into place is paramount to changing city organisation and related impacts. Avoiding the lock-in of car dependency is key. Car-dependency not only leads to high traffic levels, but it is strongly interconnected with urban sprawl (Mattioli et al., 2020[5]). The interaction of these two phenomena leads to a series of issues that hinder the well-being of the population (Conceição et al., 2023[6]). For instance, economically, it burdens both public infrastructures and individuals with high costs; socially, it can lead to isolation and poor health as car-centric designs often lack pedestrian-friendly sidewalks as well as equitable access to green spaces, exacerbating social inequality and negatively affecting health due to reduced physical activity, exposure to pollutants (contributing to problems like respiratory diseases and obesity); and, environmentally, it exacerbates climate change through significant greenhouse gas emissions and land conversion, while demanding extensive resources for vehicle production (Yan, Liu and He, 2021[7]; Karimi et al., 2022[8]; Wang and Zhu, 2024[9]).
GHG emissions between 2000 and 2023
Note: Data expressed in CO2 equivalent emissions
Source: World Bank (2025[10]).
Addressing emissions in the transport sector will be key for achieving net zero goals
Although Kenya’s transport sector plays a vital role in supporting economic activity, it is also a key source of a series of negative externalities. It is the country’s largest consumer of petroleum products, accounting for more than two-thirds of national petroleum consumption (UNEP, 2017[11]). Transport is also one of the fastest-growing sectors, with light-duty vehicles expanding at an average rate of 12% per year. However, as motorisation increases, the sector contributes significantly to urban air pollution, emitting up to 40% of all particulate matter in urban areas and acting as an indirect source of ozone (O3) (UNEP, 2017[11]). As will be further discussed below, the large stock of second-hand vehicles, poor vehicle maintenance, and frequent traffic congestion further exacerbate these impacts.
As Kenya urbanises, CO2 emissions from the transport sector are rising fast. The predominant use of fossil fuels, an increasing number of private vehicles, and fast urbanisation have led to a steep increase in CO2 emissions in the last two decades. Figure 2.4 shows that, between 2000 and 2020, CO2 emissions from transport increased from 3 Mt to 10 Mt; by 2020, transport was the sector with the highest CO2 emission levels, more than three times higher than the industry sector, and almost ten times higher than sectors such as residential, electricity and heat producers, and commercial and public services.
According to the Transport Sector Annual Report (2019-2020) by the Ministry of Transport, Infrastructure, Housing, Urban Development and Public Works, total domestic transport sector emissions in Kenya amounted to 12.343 MtCO2eq in 2019 (excluding emissions from waterborne navigation), an increase of about 4.6 Mt from 2010. Considering the sectoral emissions target of 3.46 MtCO2eq in 2030 against a 21 MtCO2eq baseline, annual emissions in 2030 should not exceed 17.54 MtCO2eq. The following additional findings were also reported:
Road transport: Responsible for 12.09 MtCO2eq in 2019.
Rail transport: Responsible for 0.062 MtCO2eq in 2019, with a high value of 0.120 MtCO2eq in 2015 due to increased activity during the construction of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).1
Aviation: Responsible for 0.188 MtCO2eq in 2019, with emissions calculated based on fuel consumed by all civil aviation domestic flights (passenger and freight).
To address the transport sector’s growing climate footprint, Kenya’s government has prioritised several low-carbon development actions in its Mitigation Technical Analysis Report (MTAR) 2018–2022. These include:
Implementing a Mass Rapid Transit System (Bus Rapid Transit and Light Rail) in Greater Nairobi, expected to reduce emissions by 0.66 MtCO₂e annually by 2022 and 2.3 MtCO₂e by 2030.
Shifting freight from road to rail between Nairobi and Mombasa, with estimated reductions of 0.82 MtCO₂e annually by 2022 and 1.1 MtCO₂e by 2030.
Improving fuel efficiency in heavy-duty trucks, projected to cut emissions by 0.97 MtCO₂e annually by 2030.
Electrifying the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) between Nairobi and Mombasa, with expected reductions of 0.24 MtCO₂e annually by 2022 and 0.32 MtCO₂e by 2030.
1. For rail transport, fuel data recorded may have included the values of all fuel used during the transportation of materials and equipment used in construction of the SGR.
Source: Government of Kenya (2018[12]) and Ministry of Roads and Transport (2023[13]).
Vehicle ownership in Kenya is expected to continue growing
As in other parts of the world, increasing economic activity has contributed to a higher number of vehicles in Kenya. Indeed, Kenya’s rising income levels are associated with an increasing number of cars and two-and three-wheelers. Between 2005 and 2020, Kenya’s GDP per capita increased from approximately 500 to 1 900 USD PPP; in other words, income increased by a factor of 4 in 15 years (World Bank, 2025[10]). An increase of a similar magnitude can be observed in the stock of cars, which increased from approximately 300 000 to 1.2 million vehicles during the same period (ITF, 2023[14]). Two- and three-wheelers have experienced an even greater increase, from a stock of almost 60 000 to almost 2 million vehicles, i.e. these types of vehicles were multiplied by more than 30 in a period of 15 years (ITF, 2023[14]). Thus, for every dollar, 7.5 times more two- and three-wheelers were added into the fleet.
Source: ITF (2022[15]) and World Bank (2025[10]).
The experience of countries around the world shows that two- and three-wheelers have followed different stages as economies transform. Evidence suggests that in some countries the amount of two- and three-wheelers (per 1000 population) increased at low-income levels. However, as income increased, the number of private cars stabilised and even decreased. Figure 2.5 shows that the latter is the case for the United States and Canada, which show remarkably low levels of two- and three-wheelers at the highest income levels. High-income countries in Asia like Japan also show a decreasing trend as income increases. In contrast, countries like Thailand that have experienced fast economic growth, have experienced a steep growing trend in the number of two- and three-wheelers.
Private cars have followed a different process. They have tended to increase the most when income reaches middle levels and eventually stabilise. However, contrary to two- and three-wheelers, the stock of private cars does not tend to decrease. Moreover, it takes a long time to reach a saturation level (this process therefore follows an s-curve). This is also the case for OECD countries like the United States, Canada, France and Japan (Figure 2.5).
What does this mean for Kenya? It suggests that, if Kenya were to follow the same trends as those seen in other countries, it would face a challenging future with high economic, environmental and social costs coming from transport. Motorcycles would typically grow rapidly at low-income levels and be followed by a certain stabilisation when car ownership accelerates. It is likely that – as in other developing countries – motorcycles do not stabilise at mid-income levels and continue to grow for several decades. In terms of cars, saturation levels of car ownership differ across countries, but in general this has happened at much higher levels than Kenya’s current car ownership. The latter suggests that if following international trends, car ownership in Kenya would not be expected to reach a saturation point anytime soon, which would also lead to cars growing (with a certain substation rate with motorcycles) for still many decades to come.
Note: Country data for the period 1990-2021.
Source: International Transport Forum (2023).
This is a very challenging scenario for Kenya. Although the number of vehicles is still low (38 per 1 000 population in the case of two- and three-wheelers, and 23 per 1 000 in cars), many cities are already experiencing high costs associated to high traffic levels, such as air pollution, accidents, congestion, etc. Moreover, if Kenya’s vehicle growth rate reaches the levels seen in other countries, Kenya’s future vehicle stock will significantly grow.
Kenya is further confronted with a high polluting vehicle fleet. Kenya’s fleet is mainly composed of second-hand imported vehicles (99%) (Goyns, 2008[16]). To address this issue, the country has imposed a ban on importing used passenger vehicles older than eight years or exceeding 150 000 km (University of Nairobi Enterprises and Services, 2014[17]). Between 2010 and 2012, 90% of Kenya’s imported light-duty vehicles came from Japan and Europe. Despite Japan’s stringent fuel economy standards, a comparison with their 2004 fleet reveals that the fuel economy of Kenya’s overall fleet is two to three times worse. This means that the newest available technologies seldomly get to the fleet. Indeed, electric vehicle providers are not fully established in Kenya. Therefore, relying on technological change to reduce the impacts of a rapidly growing fleet will be even more challenging than in other places. High rates of motorised vehicles will also bring issues that go beyond pollution, such as limited accessibility, road safety, environmental impacts, and never-ending road congestion, among others (Wasike, 2001[18]).
Avoiding a car-dependent system requires rethinking the role of sustainable transport modes
Despite being the dominant mode of transport in Kenyan cities, non-motorised transport (NMT) is not a priority in Kenya’s mobility strategies. NMT encompasses walking, cycling, and a range of small-wheeled and low-speed modes such as cycle rickshaws, push scooters, hand carts, roller skates, etc. These modes play a critical role in reducing traffic congestion, promoting healthier lifestyles, and improving air quality. Although mobility data across Kenyan cities is scarce, evidence from Nairobi shows that walking accounts for 39% of daily trips, only after the use of matatus and public transport, which represented 46% of daily trips (Figure 2.6). However, it is very likely that most people walk out of necessity due to the prohibitive cost of other modes of transport. Moreover, the infrastructure to support NMT remains inadequate, unsafe, and poorly connected. Without targeted investment in both soft and hard infrastructure for NMT, rising incomes combined with rapid urbanisation may encourage a shift towards private motorised vehicles. In this context, cities risk locking themselves into car-dependent, carbon-intensive systems, with long-term environmental, economic, and social costs.
Note: Public transport includes: Matatus (minibuses with private operators), buses (with private operators), ride hailing (Uber, Bolt), and boda boda (motorcycle taxis).
Source: TUMI (2023[19]).
Kenya has developed a series of institutional frameworks to address climate change
Kenya has progressively built a comprehensive climate policy framework over the past two decades. An increasing exposure to climate shocks, and the alignment with global initiatives to curb GHG emissions have driven Kenya to develop a comprehensive framework for addressing climate change. Figure 2.7 presents the evolution of climate policy in Kenya. The foundation of this framework was laid with the launch of Vision 2030 in 2008, followed by the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) in 2010, the country’s first major climate policy. This led to the development of the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), first implemented for 2013‑17 and subsequently updated for 2018‑22 and 2023‑27. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2015‑2030 and Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy (2017‑2026) further integrated adaptation priorities across sectors.
The enactment of the Climate Change Act in 2016 marked a major milestone, creating a legal framework to co-ordinate mitigation and adaptation efforts and institutionalising the NCCAP. That same year, Kenya ratified the Paris Agreement. The government subsequently introduced complementary instruments such as the Climate Risk Management Framework, National Climate Change Policy, and National Climate Finance Policy (all introduced in 2017‑18). In 2020, Kenya submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), committing to a 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to a business-as-usual scenario. Figure 2.7 outlines these milestones, showing how Kenya’s climate policy has evolved from strategic planning to a more integrated, legally anchored system. This progression reflects Kenya’s growing recognition of climate change as a national development challenge requiring sustained, cross-sectoral action.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
These institutional frameworks have played a key role in the deployment of climate policies at subnational level
Kenya’s climate governance system – established under the Climate Change Act (2016) – defines clear institutional responsibilities across national and county levels. At the national level, the National Climate Change Council (NCCC), chaired by the President, provides overarching co-ordination. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry serves as the Council’s Secretariat, supported by the Climate Change Directorate, which leads national climate planning, monitoring, and reporting. The National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) ensures regulatory compliance.
Kenya’s counties operate within a devolved system of government that includes both executive and legislative branches. The executive is headed by a Governor, who is supported by a Deputy Governor and a team of County Executive Committee Members (CECMs), each responsible for overseeing specific departments such as health, transport, environment, or finance. The legislative branch is the County Assembly, composed of elected Members of the County Assembly (MCAs), each representing a ward within the county. The County Assembly plays a key role in debating and approving policies, budgets, and plans, providing oversight of the executive, and ensuring public accountability at the local level.
County governments are mandated to mainstream climate change in development planning, particularly through County Integrated Development Plans (CIDPs). The Act requires counties to designate a County Executive Committee Member (CECM) to oversee climate actions, submit regular progress reports, and establish Climate Change Units (CCUs) to co-ordinate local implementation. Counties are also expected to develop Climate Action Plans aligned with national priorities, enabling them to access climate finance and support local resilience efforts.
The Council of Governors, represented on the NCCC, supports co-ordination across counties and advocates for county-level priorities. Figure 2.8 illustrates the current institutional arrangements, highlighting how national leadership, technical agencies, and devolved governments are expected to work together to implement Kenya’s climate commitments and foster climate-resilient development across the territory.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
In addition to Kenya’s core climate policies and strategies, several broader policy instruments play a critical role in shaping climate action at the subnational level. These policy tools are presented in Annex Table 2.A.1. While not always explicitly labelled as climate-focused, these frameworks influence how counties plan, finance, and implement low-carbon and climate-resilient development. For example, the National Spatial Plan (2015‑2025) provides guidelines for managing urbanisation, transportation, and land use, which are key to building climate-resilient settlements. Similarly, the National Urban Development Policy (2016) promotes sustainable infrastructure and municipal services that reduce emissions and enhance resilience. Financial frameworks such as the National Policy on Climate Finance and the County Climate Change Fund support counties in accessing and managing resources for local climate priorities. Other instruments – such as the Forests Act and the County Climate Information Services Plan – contribute to mitigation and adaptation efforts by supporting ecosystem protection and data-informed decision-making. Together, these instruments complement national climate strategies and help mainstream climate action across county-level planning and service delivery.
Kenya has developed an innovative mechanism to channel climate finance directly to the local level through the County Climate Change Fund (CCCF). The CCCF combines legislation enacted by county governments with a dedicated fund to support climate actions that are identified and prioritised by local communities.
Initially introduced by a multi-stakeholder coalition to strengthen local planning and adaptation capacity in some of Kenya’s most climate-vulnerable regions, the CCCF has since evolved to also support mitigation efforts and influence national policy frameworks (Crick et al., 2019[20]).
The mechanism allows counties to access, manage, and utilise climate finance from diverse sources in a more co-ordinated and transparent manner. These sources include county development budgets, the National Climate Change Fund, and contributions from domestic and international partners (CIF, 2024[21]). The fund is designed and managed by county governments, with a strong emphasis on local ownership.
To ensure equitable and efficient allocation:
70% of the CCCF is directed to community-level investments in adaptation
30% is reserved for county-level infrastructure and administrative costs.
Importantly, communities are informed of their available budgets in advance, enabling them to identify and implement projects within defined financial limits.
The CCCF has been piloted in Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Kitui, Vihiga, and Tharaka Nithi, where counties allocated between 1% and 2% of their development budgets to the fund (Crick et al., 2019[20]). Based on the success of these pilots, the model is now being scaled up nationally.
Kenya faces a range of climate risks, which are intensified by its growing population and rapid urbanisation. Increasing pressure on natural resources, combined with the country’s diverse topography – cooler highlands, warmer lowlands, and coastal areas – means that climate change impacts will vary across regions (World Bank, 2021[22]). Heavy reliance on rain-fed smallholder agriculture and fisheries in Lake Victoria makes Kenya particularly vulnerable to droughts, rising sea levels, increasing temperatures, and changes in precipitation (World Bank, 2021[22]). Floods and droughts are the most frequent and damaging climate hazards, causing major socio-economic losses.
Droughts: Between 1998 and 2000, droughts affected an average of 4.8 million people and caused economic losses estimated at USD 20 billion due to impacts on crops, livestock, fisheries, and forest fires (Government of Kenya, 2018[12]; World Bank, 2021[22]).
Floods: Flooding is a major driver of displacement, with over 300 000 people forced to migrate in 2000 alone. By 2030, it is estimated that 267 000 people will be at risk of coastal flooding (Government of Kenya, 2018[12]; World Bank, 2021[22]).
Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Rapid urbanisation, urban sprawl, low socio-economic conditions, and limited county service delivery make Kenya’s cities highly exposed to climate risks. Floods particularly threaten informal settlements in Nairobi and in intermediary cities, where housing is often built with inadequate materials and located on riparian or hazard-prone land. Poor drainage and waste management systems further exacerbate these risks (Douglas et al., 2018[23]). Urban residents in informal settlements face disproportionate impacts compared to those in formal housing, and local economies in intermediary cities are heavily affected. These vulnerabilities have also spurred locally driven climate change solutions, particularly in Nairobi’s informal settlements (UN-Habitat, 2024[24]). Specific cases illustrate these vulnerabilities:
Mombasa: In 2016, floods affected over 60 000 people. A sea level rise of 0.3 metres could submerge 17% of Mombasa’s area, reducing land available for housing and agriculture, and causing economic losses due to waterlogging and salinisation (Awuor, Orindi and Adwera, 2008[25]).
Intermediary cities: Flood risks are rising in intermediary cities, where built-up areas exposed to flooding expanded between 1990 and 2015. For example, exposure in Kilifi increased from 0.29 to 0.48 km², and in Garissa from 1.94 to 2.35 km². In Kisumu, floods have contaminated limited water resources, particularly affecting informal settlements and increasing the spread of waterborne diseases (Masimbe, 2018[26]).
Although Nairobi plays a fundamental role in Kenya’s urban system, intermediary cities like Nakuru and Kiambu will play a key role for avoiding carbon lock-in in the next decades. Kenya’s urban system is dominated by Nairobi. In 2020, Nairobi – Kenya’s capital city – reached 4.9 million inhabitants (KNBS, 2019[27]), making it the largest city in the country, three times bigger than the second largest one (Mombasa). Nairobi and Mombasa were the only two urban centres in 2019 with over one million inhabitants in the country (Figure 2.9). Beyond its population size, Nairobi is also the main economic engine of the country. In 2022, it accounted for 28% of Kenya’s Gross County Product (GCP), only followed by Kiambu county which accounted for 6% (KNBS, 2023[28]). The city connects with neighbouring countries such as Tanzania, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda, through four important road networks. These road networks also connect Nairobi to other urban areas in the country, including Mombasa, Kisumu, Kisii, Kitale, Garissa, Moyale, Nakuru and Eldoret.
Nairobi’s dominance in Kenya’s urban system has reinforced regional inequalities and placed growing pressure on the capital’s development. This primacy dates back to the colonial period, when Nairobi was established as the administrative and economic centre (Anderson, 2001[29]). Since independence, concentrated public investment has continued to favour the metropolitan region (Obudho and Aduwo, 1992[30]; Ojal, 2025[31]), strengthening the perception that Nairobi offers greater opportunities than other cities. This uneven pattern of development has led to growing territorial disparities, as more urbanised areas continue to attract resources while less developed areas fall further behind.
Intermediary cities like Nakuru and Kiambu will become increasingly important players in national development processes. These small and medium-sized cities are pivotal to the country’s urbanisation process. Due to their intermediation role, linking rural areas to regional capitals, these cities serve as nodes for the distribution of goods and services, or hubs for agricultural trade, manufacturing, and service industries (OECD/UN-Habitat, 2022[32]).
Source: Melchiorri, et al. (2024[33]).
In particular, they constitute a core to the flow of population and economic activities (e.g. goods and services between urban and rural areas). Thus, they can also provide employment opportunities and reduce the migration pressure on larger cities like Nairobi and Mombasa, promoting a more balanced regional development. According to Kenya’s 2019 census, intermediary cities (cities with a population between 50 000 and 1 million) were home to 43% of the total urban population (KNBS, 2019[27]). Managing urbanisation across intermediary cities is a priority for ensuring that fast population growth and built-up expansion do not compromise national development efforts to reduce urban poverty, improve resilience to climate shocks, and avoid carbon lock-in (OECD/UN ECA/AfDB, 2022[34]).
Kiambu and Nakuru: Two counties hosting dynamic intermediary cities
Kiambu: A dynamic urban area close to Nairobi
Kiambu, located just a few kilometres north of Nairobi, has experienced rapid urbanisation, largely driven by its proximity to Kenya’s capital (see Figure 2.9). Kiambu’s population was estimated at 146 903 in 2019 and it is projected that by 2027 it will grow by about 18%, reaching a population of 172 246 (County Government of Kiambu, 2022[35]). As Nairobi has expanded, Kiambu has increasingly become a residential and commercial extension of the city, offering more affordable housing and development opportunities for people working in the capital. This transformation has led to significant land use changes from agricultural to residential and commercial uses, often occurring without a guiding spatial framework (County Government of Kiambu, 2022[35]; Maina and Waiganjo, 2024[36]). As a result, the county faces rising congestion, intermittent water supply, and poor waste management. In addition, irregular land development has strained existing access roads, many of which were originally footpaths (Abuya, 2019[37]).
Ruiru, one of Kiambu’s most important municipalities, reflects many of these trends. Strategically located between Nairobi and Thika, the city’s closeness to the capital has significantly shaped its urban development. Improved road infrastructure, including the northern and eastern bypasses and the Thika Superhighway, has spurred demand for land and housing (County Government of Kiambu, 2022[35]). As a result, its population has grown from about 10 000 in 1969 to 150 000 in 2019 and is projected to double by 2029 (County Government of Kiambu, 2022[35]).
Mobility challenges in Ruiru mirror the effects of rapid, unplanned growth. Although the municipality is well connected to Nairobi and the wider metropolitan area via major roads and the commuter rail line, transport remains dominated by matatus, motorcycle taxis, and private vehicles. To address these challenges, in 2017, UN-Habitat supported the development of a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) for Ruiru. As part of this process, a Rapid Assessment for Urban Mobility found that 86.3% of travellers begin their journeys by walking, though only 51.4% complete their trips entirely on foot. Cycling accounts for 5% of commutes, while matatus (56.3%) and motorcycles (21.9%) dominate the second leg of most trips (UN-Habitat, 2017[38]). These findings underscored the need for greater modal integration, enhanced NMT infrastructure, and improved first- and last-mile connectivity to support inclusive and low-carbon mobility in Ruiru. However, both the review of policy documents and interviews during the elaboration of this work showed that the SUMP has not been implemented. Moreover, many relevant features of this plan are not considered in Ruiru’s plans.
It is worth noting that at the time of preparing the 2023‑2027 County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP), Kiambu County had not yet established an institutional framework to mainstream climate action. Still, the county set out ambitious objectives, including the development of a County Energy Plan, a County Climate Change Action Plan, the establishment of a Climate Change Resource Centre, and investments in emission reduction and climate resilience (County Government of Kiambu, 2022[35]).
Nakuru: A major hub for trade and commerce in the Rift Valley
Nakuru City, the capital of Nakuru county, is located in Kenya’s Rift Valley. It is a rapidly growing urban centre positioned approximately 160 kilometres northwest of Nairobi (see Figure 2.9). It sits along the A104 highway, a major transport corridor connecting Mombasa, Nairobi and Uganda, which has played a pivotal role in shaping both its urban development and transport systems. Nakuru City population in 2019 was estimated at 570 674 inhabitants (County Government of Nakuru, 2025[39]), making it the third largest urban agglomeration in the country. This has been an important asset, since Nakuru’s large population provides a strong foundation for economic activity, with robust consumer demand stimulating local markets, job creation, and private investment. Tourism also plays a vital role in the city’s economy. Nakuru City borders Lake Nakuru, a key attraction known for its biodiversity, including large flocks of pink flamingos. The adjacent Lake Nakuru National Park draws both domestic and international tourists, generating income and supporting livelihoods in the hospitality, transport, and service sectors.
The city’s strategic location along the A104 has made it a key hub for trade and commerce, facilitating the movement of goods and people across East Africa. This connectivity has attracted businesses, industries, and logistics operations, contributing to Nakuru’s expansion as an industrial and commercial hub (Willkomm, Follmann and Dannenberg, 2021[40]). As a result, the city has experienced significant urban growth, with new residential, commercial, and industrial zones emerging, especially on its outskirts. However, this expansion has often outpaced infrastructure development, leading to challenges in managing basic services like water, waste management, and electricity. Indeed, as a result of population influx in Nakuru City, urban planners extended the central district business area southwards in order to accommodate daily needs of Nakuru dwellers (Mogire, Kagendo and Kweyu, 2022[41]).
Public transport infrastructure remains underdeveloped, with no efficient mass transit options. Public transport in Nakuru is dominated by informal paratransit services, particularly matatus, which operate with low passenger capacity and limited co-ordination. Increasing traffic congestion – especially during peak hours – leads to higher fossil fuel consumption, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and worsening local air quality. Although efforts are in place, pedestrian and cycling infrastructure is also limited, making non-motorised transport challenging. The city’s geography, which includes flat plains and some hilly areas, further complicates infrastructure development, especially in terms of extending road networks and ensuring accessibility to newly developed areas (County Government of Nakuru, 2018[42]).
In terms of transport, the A104 highway has heavily influenced Nakuru’s mobility patterns. The road forms the backbone of the city’s transport system, supporting a high volume of freight traffic as well as local commuters. The heavy reliance on road transport, including matatus, boda bodas (motorcycle taxis), and private cars, has resulted in increasing traffic congestion, particularly in the city centre and along major routes. This congestion is compounded by the influx of transit vehicles passing through the city on the A104.
To address its environmental challenges, Nakuru County is laying some of the foundations for a climate governance framework. Annex Table 2.A.1 presents the main climate policy tools developed by Nakuru. It shows that since 2018, the city has developed a series of co-ordinated policies and regulations aimed at mainstreaming climate action across sectors. These include the County Climate Change Act (2021), which created a legally mandated Climate Change Fund, and the updated County Climate Action Plan (2023 2027). Additional laws on waste, water, and energy contribute to reducing emissions and building resilience. The 2023 Climate Change Framework Policy further embeds climate considerations into planning and budgeting. Together, these tools signal Nakuru’s growing concern to address climate change at the local level.
How can systems thinking help Kiambu and Nakuru address their challenges?
Addressing the root causes of unsustainable cities requires going beyond observed trends such as those presented in the previous section. Looking at data trends can be useful, since it allows to understand potential future outcomes, especially those that are likely to come if policy and action remains in its business-as-usual configuration. Yet, focusing solely on trends leads decision-makers to focus on how to anticipate and cope with these trends rather than channelling efforts to changing them.
Systems thinking can help Kiambu and Nakuru to identify the root causes contributing to carbon lock-in and poor well-being outcomes. Indeed, these case studies aim at accompanying Nakuru and Kiambu in adopting a systemic approach to look at their climate, transport, and land-use policies. A key goal of this work is to understand the structure of the system, as well as the mechanisms contributing to locking-in these cities into high emissions and poor well-being outcomes. This analysis builds on several well-established tools from the systems thinking literature, as well as on the OECD’s process for systems innovation to achieve net-zero (OECD, 2022[43]) and UN-Habitat’s work and expertise in challenge-driven innovation in cities (UN-Habitat, 2025[44]). This process has been redesigned to address the needs of intermediary cities in developing countries. The result is a four-step process that guides the case studies and allows local authorities and stakeholders to take a systemic approach in a practical way (See Chapter 1). The following sections summarise the results for each of these steps.
A key step for transforming transport and urban systems lies in questioning and redefining the economic, social, and environmental outcomes. In other words, change the paradigm, i.e. the shared ideas in the minds of the society, that are at the source of these systems (Meadows, 2009[45]). Paradigms or shared mental models largely determine the types of investment decisions and policies that are put into place, what gets measured and conceived as progress, and as a result the type of systems that are developed. In turn, the results that our systems achieve further perpetuate beliefs about what is desirable or possible, creating a cycle that can make systemic change and the shift towards more sustainable development pathways difficult. Questioning the paradigm behind a system that is not bringing desired results and reimagining the expected outcomes that a desired system would achieve is therefore fundamental.
Addressing the challenges of urban areas like Nakuru and Kiambu requires rethinking the paradigm with which policy and investment decisions are being made. A challenge, as well as an opportunity, lies in recognising and avoiding key mental models and assumptions that have led other cities to the development of unsustainable systems. One of the predominant ideas shaping transport policy across cities and countries has been that increasing mobility, characterised by physical movement and speed, invariably contributes to people’s well-being (ITF, 2019[46]). This conflation has driven many urban areas and countries to be locked in car-dependent systems (ITF, 2019[46]; OECD, 2021[47]). These systems are mobility intensive but are proximity poor, as well as limited in delivering convenient, equitable, healthy and sustainable access to essential destinations, such as workplace, health facilities, social gatherings, or basic amenities like grocery stores (OECD, 2021[47]). Revisiting the goals and policy decisions in Nakuru and Kiambu to shift focus from mobility to sustainable accessibility will be crucial to avoid that these cities are locked in car-dependent and sprawled systems. This shift is not merely a theoretical adjustment. It is a practical strategy to avoid further entrenching of inefficient and unsustainable practices in spatial planning and street design. Moreover, there is a need for drawing a clear picture and a shared vision of what sustainable and accessible systems in each city would look like. This implies envisioning and co-creating transport systems that truly serve the needs of people, while respecting planetary boundaries.
This section focuses on identifying what a sustainable transport system would look like according to local authorities, the private sector, and civil society in both Nakuru and Kiambu. It summarises the results from a series of exercises during a workshop in each city, where participants were invited to imagine a typical street and their territory in 2050 if their cities had followed a sustainable development path. The section also compares some of the expected goals conveyed during the exercises by the different groups with existing transport, urban, and spatial plans. Results confirm that most stakeholders envision a system that privileges accessibility to maximise well-being.
Envisioning Nakuru in 2050
What would Nakuru’s streets look like in 2050?
During the workshop, participants were grouped in four small teams and worked together to build a shared vision of the streets of Nakuru in 2050. Some of the main questions they addressed are presented in Box 2.4.
Overall, the collective vision from the participants for the city streets in 2050 is a pedestrian-friendly environment, combining green infrastructure with accessible, enjoyable, and diverse modes of transport. This can be further broken down as follows:
Increased green spaces and pedestrianisation: All groups emphasised transforming streets into greener, more pedestrian-friendly areas. This includes the creation of green spaces, pedestrian sidewalks, and recreational zones, particularly where parking lots or motorised vehicle lanes currently exist.
Reduction of motorised transport in the CBD: A common vision was to reduce the reliance on motorised vehicles. This includes reducing regular car traffic and parking lots, while reducing the reliance on traditional public transport like matatus (minibuses) and boda bodas (motorcycle taxis). Emergency and delivery vehicles might still operate, but in a much-reduced capacity.
Promotion of sustainable and enjoyable transport modes: There was a strong focus on sustainable transport modes such as walking, cycling, scooters, cable cars, and escalators. The use of electric and hybrid vehicles was also mentioned, along with innovative transport solutions like Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, light rails, and trams.
Enhanced accessibility and inclusivity: The need for streets that cater to a diverse range of users, including children, people with disabilities, and tourists, was highlighted. This includes safer crossings, dedicated lanes for non-motorised transport, and recreational spaces for activities like cycling and skating.
Urban design and infrastructure improvements: The elimination of roundabouts, creating shaded areas, introducing expressways above town, and ensuring adequate infrastructure for green spaces, lighting, drainage, and street furniture, were mentioned.
Community and commerce: A vibrant street life with shops, markets, malls, hotels, musicians, and other cultural elements was envisioned, enhancing the street’s role as a community and commercial hub.
Strategic implementation: Some groups suggested specific strategies like nighttime deliveries to reduce daytime traffic congestion, closing certain roads to vehicles, and dedicating a significant portion of the roads for pedestrians. Moreover, the development of mass transit services was at the core of the discussion.
This vision is line with the answers collected during the interviews with representatives from the local government, as well as local stakeholders in advance of the workshop. When asking what Nakuru would look like in 30 years, interviewees highlighted that the city would have a transport sector that accommodates users without everyone being on private vehicles, it would be a green city, and there would be mass transit to connect to other parts of the country. Yet, some parts of this vision clash with the fact that several participants, as well as interviewees, acknowledged the importance of owning a private car within the Kenyan society. Participants mentioned that owning a car is not just a convenient means of transport but a symbol of success and status. Addressing the latter, i.e. changing the mental models behind car use, will be key to achieve this vision. Overall, Nakuru’s vision is one that not only requires the adoption of green technologies, but a restructuring of the spatial dynamics among individuals and economic activities, as well as different use of public space.
Figure 2.10 presents word clouds that reflect the answers to a series of questions that helped workshop participants in imagining the streets of Nakuru in 2050. In these figures, the frequency of a given answer is captured by a word’s size, i.e. bigger words capture more frequent answers. Overall, the responses indicate a shift towards more sustainable and inclusive modes of transport, reduced reliance on private vehicles, and a more active and diverse street life.
Note: These words represent the answers provided by the participants to a workshop organised in Nakuru in October 2023. The size of the words represents the frequency of the words given to answer each question.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
How are people moving?
The dominant modes of transportation are pedestrian, cycling, and skating, with mentions of scooters and BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) systems. Elevated trains, cable cars, and light rail were also noted. The repeated emphasis on pedestrian and cycling indicates a significant interest in shifting towards these modes of transportation. There is also a notable presence of safe roads, crossings, and order in the streets, suggesting an environment conducive to these modes of travel.
What has disappeared?
There has been a notable reduction in parking lots, bus terminus, and on-street parking, indicating a decrease in vehicle-centric facilities. Other disappeared elements include street families (homeless), boda boda shades (motorbike taxi stands), and unutilised spaces. Roundabouts and two-way roads are also less common, pointing towards changes in road design. The reduction in informal businesses and temporary structures suggests urban formalisation. There is also a notable decrease in pollution and darkness, indicating improvements in environmental and lighting conditions.
Who is on the streets?
The streets are primarily occupied by cyclists, businesspeople, tourists, artists, pedestrians, and motorists. There is also a presence of traders and a security team, reflecting a diverse and active street life. The inclusion of Persons Living with Disabilities (PLWD) suggests an inclusive environment.
What type of vehicles are in the street?
The streets are seeing a variety of vehicles, notably electric and hybrid vehicles, motorbikes, cable cars, and trains. There is a significant presence of mass transport and BRT fleets, alongside private vehicles. The use of shared bicycles (park and pay systems) and private bicycles is also noted. Skates, electric bikes, and light rails are mentioned, along with delivery vehicles and general public transport.
What do Nakuru’s plans envision and how do they compare with the vision reflected in the case study?
Nakuru Town has a vision focused on improving mobility by developing sustainable public transport and limiting congestion. The strategic plans for Nakuru Town outline a vision aimed at transforming the urban landscape by improving safety, efficiency, and convenience. Nakuru Town’s Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan for the period 2014-2034 (Nakuru Town, 2022[48]) articulates a roadmap for the next decade. The vision of the city centres on improving the movement of people and goods within the town, enhancing regional connectivity, and fostering mobility. To achieve this vision, the city aims to develop a transport system that ensures the preservation of physical and environmental integrity. It considers public transport as the primary mode, supported by other transport methods, diverting through-traffic away from high-density areas, with the overall goal of minimising time, transportations costs, and related accidents. This vision further breaks down into different goals:
Better access: Goods and services will be readily accessible to a large portion of residents, in terms of both time and financial resources.
Equitable transport policies: Benefits of transport policies will be maximised and fairly distributed, while negative impacts will be minimised and equally shared.
Enhanced urban planning: The city’s layout will facilitate free movement and easy access to green spaces, with fixed borders to limit horizontal expansion.
Improved environmental quality: The city will maintain a clean environment with good air quality and low noise levels, fostering a sense of civic responsibility.
Better public transport: Comprehensive public transport coverage will be affordable and accessible citywide.
Less dependence on car use: Residents will have the option to use a car but will not be forced to do so to access jobs, education, and social services. In addition, the city will be easy to enter and exit, with motorised transport users bearing the associated costs instead of the broader society.
Nakuru’s strategic urban development plan also highlights a series of significant transportation and urban challenges (Nakuru Town, 2022[48]):
Inadequate parking within the CBD, leading to obstructed entrances and impeded traffic flow due to uncontrolled roadside parking.
Congestion affects all transport modes and socio-economic groups, worsened by insufficient non-motorised transport facilities, poor road conditions, and inadequate public transport services.
Ineffective traffic control measures, poor intersection designs, and frequent accidents further exacerbate transport-related issues.
Uncontrolled land use development and the mixed use of busy CBD roads limit space for walking and cycling.
An overabundance of small, low-cost vehicles like matatus and motorcycles leads to inefficient use of the road network.
The visioning exercise from the workshop and the official plans of Nakuru demonstrate notable differences, particularly in their approaches to accessibility and mobility. The workshop emphasised the need to enable accessibility more robustly, highlighting the spatial tensions and trade-offs between car use and promoting proximity and access through alternative modes of transport. The workshop’s discussions underscored that enhancing convenience for car users limits space for other objectives, such as efficient service distribution, access to green spaces and the development of street amenities. In contrast, the city’s plans seem to overlook these tensions and implications. The workshop also stressed the importance of creating a system that reduces car use and enhances conditions for sustainable transport modes as a means for achieving overall sustainability outcomes (e.g. air quality, a greener and safer city, good and fair access to services). The focus on walking, cycling, micro-mobility, and other less common active modes (e.g. skating) as central transport modes was prominent, with some participants highlighting that these could be the principal mode of transport in central areas. In contrast, the city’s plans appear to maintain a mobility-focused mindset that does not fully acknowledge the environmental and spatial costs of prioritising car use, even while fostering other modes. The development of public transport is mentioned as the primary mode, while the role of active modes is limited. This contrasts discussions during the workshop. Additionally, the workshop envisioned streets not solely as links but as vibrant places, integrating musicians, artisans, and shops, as well as providing areas for recreation, which is not reflected in the city’s plans.
Despite these differences, both the visioning exercise and Nakuru’s official plans share several strategic objectives. They both prioritise the strategic role of public transport in the city’s development, recognising its importance in reducing private traffic congestion. Furthermore, both the workshop and the city’s plans align in their commitment to environmental objectives, aiming to reduce pollution. They also share a common goal, acknowledging the need to enhance connectivity and ensure that residents can easily reach essential services and amenities. This shared focus on public transport and environmental goals highlights a mutual understanding of the importance of sustainable development for Nakuru’s future.
Envisioning Kiambu in 2050
What would Kiambu’s streets look like in 2050?
Kiambu’s vision for 2050 reflects a shift towards a city with a lower intensity of motorised vehicles and more prominent green spaces that lead to better environmental quality.
Box 2.5 summarises the results from the envisioning exercise carried out during the workshop. These results suggest a vision that requires a strong shift towards green spaces, NMT, and a mass public transportation system; it also considers a different use of space, including organised commercial areas. The collective vision can be summarised as follows:
Enhanced green spaces: All groups emphasise creating more green areas, underscoring environmental focus and aesthetic improvements.
Smart urban design: There is a clear vision for efficiently designed streets, with smart allocation for different transport modes, and infrastructure like central tree reservations.
More non-motorised and public transport: A shift towards pedestrian, cycling, and public transit (like BRT, railways) is evident, reducing reliance on private vehicles.
Adoption of innovative transport modes: The future street incorporates electric and alternative transport options, such as electric tuk-tuks, cargo motorbikes, and high-capacity vehicles.
Less private vehicle usage: There is a consensus on reducing private cars, with a significant move towards mass transit and non-motorised transportation.
Organised urban lifestyle and commercial activity: The envisioned street includes organised markets, recreational areas, and a focus on environmental and social improvements like reduced pollution and increased safety.
Elimination of traditional road elements: The disappearance of roadside parking, petrol stations, and traditional road crossings, replaced by bridges and organised vendor spaces, indicates a transformation towards a more efficient and environmentally friendly urban landscape.
Kiambu’s vision is, up to a certain extent, influenced by its proximity to Nairobi. As in the case of Nakuru, this envisioning exercise highlights a more predominant role of NMT and public transport. Yet, during the workshop many participants highlighted the need for proper infrastructure and safety for the adoption of these types of transport, as well as the need for a shift in the current mental models that have made bicycles a mode of transport for low-income classes.
Overall, the workshop responses reflect a vision for a more sustainable, inclusive, and efficient urban transport system, with a significant shift towards non-motorised and public modes of transport, a diverse street life, and a cleaner, safer urban environment. Figure 2.11 presents the answers to a series of questions that helped the participants of the workshop to picture the streets of Kiambu in 2050. In these figures, the frequency of a given answer is captured by a word’s size, i.e. bigger words capture more frequent answers.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Based on the responses from the workshop participants, the following summary encapsulates the key insights from each question:
How are people moving?
The dominant modes of transportation are walking, cycling, and mass public transport, with frequent mentions of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and railways. The inclusion of electric tuk-tuks and electric motorbikes shows a shift towards more sustainable forms of transport. The reference to separate lanes for certain modes suggests an interest in dedicated infrastructure for safer and more efficient travel, especially for cyclists and pedestrians.
What has disappeared?
There is a notable decrease in private motorists, small capacity public operators, hawkers along streets, and petrol stations. The disappearance of traditional elements like parking lots, traffic congestion, street pollution, noise, accidents, and street crimes reflect a vision of a safer, cleaner, and more orderly urban space. The removal of dual carriages points towards a transformation in road design.
Who is on the streets?
Streets are populated by a diverse group including motorists, cyclists, pedestrians, and skaters, with special mentions of people relaxing in green spaces, children, persons living with disabilities, the elderly, and essential service providers. This diversity indicates a vibrant street life with spaces that cater to various needs and activities that include, but go beyond, transport. The mention of few private cars and organised vendors suggests a move towards less car-dependent and more organised urban environments.
What types of vehicles are on the street?
The streets are primarily occupied by mass public transport and a variety of environmentally friendly vehicles including electric and hybrid vehicles. The emphasis on non-motorised vehicles, high-capacity buses, and bicycles signifies a shift towards sustainable transportation and a reduction in reliance on traditional motor vehicles.
What do Kiambu’s plans envision?
Kiambu’s County Integrated Development Plan (2023-2027) is one of the main documents articulating the county’s vision. It delineates the actions on pivotal sectors including road infrastructure, transportation, public works, and utilities. It aims to position the county as a regional frontrunner by delivering high-quality, sustainable, and green infrastructure. To achieve this vision, the county has envisaged a series of sector-specific objectives. These include ensuring connectivity across the county through an efficient, safe, and reliable all-weather road network, complemented by well-structured bus parks; as well as overseeing the construction and maintenance of safe, health-conscious, and efficient buildings.
Kiambu’s vision is also shaped by its Transport Mobility Plan (2017). The plan envisions to establish a sustainable transport system that enhances accessibility, safety, and quality of life for its residents. The vision includes increasing the share of walking, cycling, and public transport trips while reducing dependence on private motor vehicles. This approach aims to promote environmental sustainability, economic development, and social equity. To achieve this vision, the county has outlined a series of key strategies:
Improving infrastructure for walking and cycling to make these modes safe, attractive, and convenient. This includes building dedicated footpaths and cycling tracks, implementing traffic calming measures, and ensuring proper street lighting and amenities.
Enhancing the quality and reach of public transport services. This involves upgrading bus services, establishing mass rapid transit (MRT) systems, and ensuring that public transport stops are accessible and well-integrated with other modes of transport. Moreover, this also includes managing paratransit, by regulating and improving services to complement formal public transport.
Integrating land use and transport planning. This is key to minimising the need for travel and encouraging sustainable transport modes, while promoting transit-oriented development (TOD) and ensuring that new developments are located near existing transport infrastructure.
Kiambu’s vision foresees a city that prioritises better infrastructure and addresses the needs of a growing population with higher environmental demands. While the county strategic plan focuses on the role of infrastructure to improve mobility, its transportation plan brings forward the need to integrate transport and land use planning to promote sustainable urban development.
Just as in the case of Nakuru, the visioning exercise from the workshop and the vision reflected in the planning documents in Kiambu show some similarities as well as some differences. On the one hand, they share the pursuit of a much larger role for public transport (including mass transit) and active modes. Nonetheless the vision outlined in the planning documents tends to concentrate more on the development of diverse mobility infrastructure, while the visioning exercise during the workshop focused on revisiting the allocation and use of space between modes, and different street functions (e.g. places for recreation) and identifying some of the spatial tensions between transport modes (especially car and matatu) and desired changes (e.g. improved green spaces). Discussions also focused on imagining the future role of diverse motorised modes (e.g. matatus, tuk-tuks, boda-bodas, electric bicycles, electric cargo bikes) considering different city areas. As described above, the transportation plan highlights the need to integrate transport and land-use planning and Transport Oriented Development (TOD). During the visioning exercise discussions focused on some more detailed issues around this desired objective, such as the need to co‑ordinate mass transit with matatu stations, or the need to reorganise street vendors. Discussions also made more prominent the need to rethink space use and design as a pre-requisite to increase convenience, safety and accessibility.
A key contribution of this work is understanding the dynamics that are behind growing emission levels and other undesirable results in intermediary cities; and which impede advancing towards the type of future envisioned by stakeholders in these cities (see previous section). Understanding the dynamics that are at the root of multiple challenges can bring light to the ways in which climate policy can be a tool for improving well-being if focused on the shift towards more virtuous dynamics. To this end, systems thinking uses a series of tools like causal loop diagrams (CLD) that allow to map and make visible the system structure and its dynamics. CLDs allow to visualise (non-linear) relationships at the root of increasing GHG emissions, while mapping the structure of a given system. In practice, CLDs help to understand why there is a mismatch between the results of a given system and the desired vision and results. Detail on how to read causal loop diagrams can be found in the Annex.
This section provides a series of CLDs that map the systems shaping the transport and urban systems of Nakuru and Kiambu. These CLDs were developed based on available literature, a series of semi-structured interviews, as well as the discussion and feedback received during the workshops in both cities. A starting point was to investigate whether some of the most relevant dynamics found in a typical car-dependent system can be found in these cities. Identifying early on the appearance of these dynamics, which lie behind unsustainable results, provides a key opportunity for these cities to focus action on reshaping the system before undesirable results emerge and system lock-in imposes a higher cost to change course.
The CLDs developed show that transport systems in Nakuru and Kiambu share the main dynamics of a typical car-dependent system. This type of system is mainly driven by three main dynamics that increase traffic exponentially until reaching high levels of vehicles per capita. These dynamics are induced demand, sprawl and the low attractiveness trap of sustainable modes of transport (OECD, 2021[47]; OECD, 2022[43]). There are, however, relevant differences in the way these dynamics play out in Nakuru and Kiambu, compared to a car-dependent system in an OECD country. These main differences are:
Paratransit services not being regulated, become an important part of induced demand, and a relevant source of traffic. Thus, private cars do not dominate total traffic. Vehicles such as boda-boda (motorcycle-based paratransit services) and matatus (small vans providing semi-formal transport services, with low regulation) are an important part of the vehicle ecosystem, providing service to millions of people a day, being the backbone of Kenya’s public road transport services (Kimani, Kibua and Masinde, 2004[49]), and the core of Kenya’s passenger and freight traffic (Republic of Kenya, 2009[50]). Matatus tend to increase with road expansion, becoming an extra source of induced demand. However, when congestion builds up, boda-bodas grow the most.
Sprawl is characterised by informal and unplanned settlements. Fast population growth and built-up expansion have been common features of these cities in the last decades. This has translated into the development of informal settlements and slums that challenge the provision of public services and stem sprawl.
Public transport is characterised by a lack of formal, integrated, and structured services (e.g. a network of mass transit and feeder services); which translate into a lack of competitiveness.
The following sections explore how paratransit services, sprawl, and the absence of an integrated public transport network (including mass transit services) are shaping the transport and urban systems in both cities.
Induced demand in Kiambu and Nakuru
The first dynamic that characterises the systems found in Nakuru and Kiambu is induced demand. Induced traffic happens when, as a response to congestion, governments invest in more road infrastructure and expand road capacity, which aims to reduced congestion. However, the overall result of expanding road capacity is more congestion in the long-term. Induced demand is an example of a policy fix that fails, i.e. a situation in which by trying to fix a problem the selected solution ends up making it worse. Figure 2.12 shows the CLD that reflects the key dynamics behind induced demand.
From a systemic point of view, induced demand is characterised by two balancing loops. In Figure 2.12, the loop B1 shows that as the pressure to reduce congestion increases, governments increase investment in road infrastructure. This increases the capacity for mixed motorised traffic and reduces congestion in the short term. This is the intended effect of the road expansion policy. Nevertheless, as congestion decreases, the attractiveness to drive cars increases (loop B2), leading to more motorised vehicles in the streets and eventually to congestion again. This is the unintended effect. The way in which B1 and B2 interact is that while B2 increases traffic until reaching the maximum amount of traffic that the existing amount of roads would allow for, B1 by adding road capacity, increases the level of traffic at which that equilibrium would be reached, and this process is repeated over time. Key strategies in the studied cities have indeed an important focus on road infrastructure expansion. Proposed solutions to congestion in the Nakuru Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan (2014-2030) involve for instance establishing missing links, widening roads, and creating new ones, with a focus on the A104 transport corridor. Although the development of NMT is mentioned as one of the main solutions, discussions and interviews highlighted that infrastructure development tends to be biased towards cars and motorised traffic.
As mentioned, in the case of Nakuru and Kiambu the unintended effect of road expansion also accounts for a higher supply of matatus. This is a key difference to induced demand in most developed cities, where public transport services and routes are rationed and planned. Figure 2.12 also shows that, due to limited regulation and control of the paratransit sector, the incentives for providing matatu services increases as road infrastructure expands. Following a similar logic as in the case of cars, this eventually increases the number of matatus on the roads, contributing to traffic and increasing congestion in the long-term (loop B3). Matatus play a key role in the Kenyan transport ecosystem. Almost 92% of Kenyan households have a matatu service available within a 20-minute walk, which helps to explain why matatus account for almost 88% of motorised trips in the largest cities, and 72% of trips in the medium and small cities in the country (Gulyani, 2019[51]). In addition to the latter, the dominance of matatus can be explained by the fact that public transport in Kenya is organised as a private service, i.e. it is provided by private operators without a centralised planning agent. As such, as road capacity increases, more people can decide to acquire a vehicle and provide matatu services. This is done through Savings and Credit Cooperative Organization (SACCO). A SACCO is a member-owned cooperative that manages and regulates groups of matatu operators in Kenya. Although matatus address an increasing demand for transportation in cities, most of these vehicles are old and poorly maintained, contributing to air pollution and GHG emissions (Salon and Gulyani, 2019[52]).
Note: The causal loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in opposite directions. In this figure, B1 loop describes how as congestion increases, the pressures to reduce it increase, governments increase investment in road infrastructure, which increases the capacity for mixed motorised traffic and reduces congestion. B2 describes how as congestion decreases the attractiveness to drive increases causing the number of cars to increase and in turn traffic volumes increase, increasing congestion. B3 describes how as congestion decreases, incentives for providing matatu services increase, which increases the number of matatus, which increases traffic volumes and in turn increases congestion. Finally, R1 shows a reinforcing loop, associated to the increasing number of boda boda in the streets, since the supply of these vehicles increases with road capacity, and becomes more attractive with higher levels of congestion.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Another key feature of induced demand in Kiambu and Nakuru is that, with the current system structure, traffic will grow even if road infrastructure lags. As also shown in Figure 2.12, an additional challenge for Nakuru and Kiambu is that boda bodas become more attractive as congestion grows (loop R1). This results from the fact that boda bodas can move faster on congested roads. In addition, as in the case of matatus, the regulation of boda bodas is limited, allowing for a growing number of service providers. Thus, all things equal, different levels of road expansion will impact the share of boda bodas (with respect to matatus) with overall traffic significantly growing in either case.
Induced demand has a direct effect on the level of CO2 emissions. As new road infrastructure makes private cars, matatus, and boda boda more attractive, higher levels of traffic lead to higher levels of CO2 emissions. This can already be observed in both Kiambu and Nakuru, where the transport sector is not only the main contributor of CO2 but has experienced a fast increase in the last two decades. In Kiambu, between 2000 and 2020, transport emissions increased from 3 422 to 8 786 tonnes, i.e. an increase of almost 160% (Figure 2.13). By 2020, the transport sector accounted for 89% of CO2 emissions in this city. A similar pattern can be observed in Nakuru, where CO2 emissions from the transport sector have surged since 2000. Indeed, Nakuru’s transport increased from 8 980 tonnes in 2000 to 32 112 in 2020 (Figure 2.13). In other words, the emissions from the transport sector more than tripled in the space of two decades.
Note: Emissions by sector: Industry (IND), Residential (RES), and Transport (TRA).
Source: Melchiorri, et al. (2024[33]).
Nakuru and Kiambu are experiencing a fast urban expansion
The second dynamic characterising Nakuru and Kiambu systems is urban sprawl. As shown in Figure 2.14, both urban centres are still expanding. Between 2000 and 2030, the area of Kiambu’s urban agglomeration is expected to increase by 41%, while Nakuru’s is expected to increase by 87%. However, these changes do not consider the catchment area1 of these urban centres. Spatial planning and transport policies will shape the relationship of these urban centres with their corresponding catchment areas as well as the extent of urban sprawl. Urban sprawl commonly refers to the spread of a city’s built-up area, often characterised by low-density and unplanned development. This expansion typically results in increased reliance on motorised modes of transportation, due to greater distances between residential, commercial, and industrial areas (worsened by single-use development). Figure 2.15 presents the CLD for this dynamic. Since sprawl is intrinsically connected to induced demand, the CLD captured by Figure 2.12 is also included here.
Note: Both figures include the estimated boundaries for the periods 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030. In the background, both figures show the extent of built-up areas in 2020.
Source: Melchiorri, et al. (2024[33]).
In Figure 2.15, the first significant loop is R3. It showcases the relationship between economic opportunities and urban population growth. Enhanced economic opportunities and access to services in cities attract migration, leading to a larger urban population. This growth further intensifies the demand for land, especially in CBD, creating land scarcity. Land scarcity increases housing price differentials between the CBD and peripheral areas, as well as the number of informal settlements in the periphery. The resulting spread of settlements increases the catchment area, making distant areas, which were previously considered too far or inconvenient, more attractive for residential and commercial development as well as for informal or unplanned settlements. As the population grows, the result is a larger catchment area. This expansion is usually characterised by low-density, unplanned, and single use development, i.e. urban sprawl.
Catchment area expansion is conducive to a decrease in the density of people and places, which makes modes of transport like cars, matatus, and boda bodas more attractive (loop R2). This further increases the number of these vehicles on the roads, and the traffic volume. Thus, sprawl also reinforces induced demand. Figure 2.15 also shows that there is a substitution effect between cars and matatus, where higher supply of matatus reduces the share of the population that will choose to drive. This substitution effect is not present with boda bodas, since information from interviews and discussion during workshops suggest that boda bodas tend to act like a last mile service, i.e. they complement the service provided by matatus by taking people to areas that are usually only accessible by motorbikes.
What is driving sprawl in Kenya? Multiple factors contribute to urban sprawl, including rapid population growth from both natural increase and rural-urban migration, which outpaces local governments’ ability to provide adequate planning and services (Albert et al., 2020[53]). Additionally, a lack of comprehensive urban and road planning (and investment) results in haphazard development and inefficient land use, further decreasing density and increasing distances between destinations. Furthermore, weak land use regulation, particularly in cities like Kiambu and Nakuru, facilitates the conversion of agricultural land to urban areas, exacerbating the issue across other intermediary cities (Albert et al., 2020[53]). Box 2.6 provides additional insights on sprawl in Kenya.
Note: The causal loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in opposite directions. The right causal loop diagram shows that as road capacity for mixed traffic increases, all else equal, the catchment area will increase and in turn this will reduce the density of people and places. The left causal loop diagram shows that as the density of people and places decreases, the attractiveness of driving and matatus increases, which increases the number of both cars and matatus on the roads, and the traffic volume; thus, sprawl reinforces induced demand. The figure shows that the effect on increasing matatus and cars is not 100% additional as there is some substitution between these vehicles, where the more attractive the matatus services the lower the population that will choose to drive (this is indicated with the red arrow in the figure).
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Some of the negative effects associated to sprawl are starting to become evident in Kenya. Sprawl can increase the cost of infrastructure development and maintenance, as services like roads, electricity, and water must be extended over larger areas. This is already manifesting in Ruaka Town and Kiambu County, where rapid land use changes strain existing infrastructure, leading to issues like traffic congestion, air pollution, inadequate water supply, and overburdened sewer systems (Abuya, 2019[37]). In Nairobi and Nyeri, unplanned city expansion has led to the loss of agricultural land and natural habitats, and it is increasingly encroaching upon areas susceptible to natural hazards (Fekete, 2023[54]).
In Kenya, sprawl is also associated with several social problems, including the creation of slums. It does so through economic and social segregation, pushing lower-income populations to underfunded inner-city or peripheral areas. This results in inadequate infrastructure, informal settlements, and deteriorating living conditions. According to UN-Habitat, in 2020, Kenya’s population living in slums accounted for 50% of the total urban population (UN-Habitat, 2020[55]). Urban dwellers living in slums face tenure insecurities, inadequate infrastructure, and socio-economic challenges such as extreme poverty, unemployment, and inadequate access to education and healthcare, alongside environmental challenges like poor sanitation, lack of clean water, and vulnerability to environmental hazards and disasters (Cities Alliance, 2021[56]).
Low attractiveness trap of sustainable modes of transport in Kiambu and Nakuru
A “low attractiveness trap” emerges when transport and land-use systems, by design, make sustainable modes of transport less appealing. In the case of cities like Nakuru and Kiambu, three different dynamics contribute to the existence of this trap. Figure 2.17 presents these dynamics and shows their effect on the attractiveness of motorised vehicles, i.e. matatus, boda bodas, and cars.
The first dynamic results from the fact that road infrastructure is designed to privilege motorised vehicles. This diminishes the space for other transport modes (Figure 2.17, top loop). Indeed, as road capacity increases, there is less space for safe and convenient cycling and walking (in the road network connecting people and places of interest). As the attractiveness of these active modes of transport decreases, fewer people use them, which in turn makes other motorised modes of transport more attractive. Eventually, as more people shift away from active modes and opt for motorised modes, this exacerbates traffic and congestion.
The second dynamic comes from the fact that “public” transport services are delivered by private operators, without central planning or minimum service quality standardisation (Figure 2.17, loop B4). In the absence of such standardisation, quality depends on the decisions of providers who have low incentives to increase service quality. Indeed, providing better quality implies higher costs and less available investment (since these services do not receive financial support). Nonetheless, the lack of efficient and attractive public transport (including mass transit) increases the attractiveness of paratransit services despite their low quality (at least until people have incomes that are high enough to get a car).
Finally, the third dynamic contributing to the trap follows from the persistent reliance on matatus (Figure 2.17, loop B5). Indeed, the lack of an efficient and integrated public transport network has been “solved” by fully relying on matatus. However, the matatu system cannot replace an efficient and integrated public transport network. In addition, if this situation persists, the infrastructure gap will continue to grow. Moreover, this is exacerbated by sprawl, as with less density – all else equal – any investment in public mass transit will have less impact on creating an integrated network. This further creates the impression that reliance on the matatu system is easier to cope with than the really hard task of developing an integrated public transport network.
Urban sprawl is a complex phenomenon that encompasses a range of physical, social, and environmental factors, making it challenging to define and measure. As such, there are different ways to assess sprawl beyond changes in the total amount of built-up area. Land-use patterns and the nature of the built-up area provide insights into the spatial aspect of sprawl, while population density and the distribution of residential and commercial zones can shed light on its socio-economic dimensions.
Different metrics suggest that sprawl is not only present but has increased in both Kiambu and Nakuru counties during the period 2000-20. Nakuru, however, seems to have experienced the fastest increase in sprawl during this period. This can be seen in Figure 2.16, which presents three different dimensions for capturing sprawl. For instance, between 2000 and 2020, the built-up surface area of Nakuru county increased from 6% to 35%, while in Kiambu this share increased from 30% to 48% It is important to note that although Nairobi’s built-up surface also increased during this period, it increased at a lower rate (A). A noticeable feature of Nakuru’s urban expansion is the significant increase in the level of dispersion (B) and land uptake (C) experienced between 2000 and 2020. Indeed, during this period the dispersion of built-up areas grew from 46.4 to 48.7 UPU per m2, while land uptake increased from 367 to 1 094 m2 per inhabitant.
Note: Selected counties in 2000 and 2020. This figure describes sprawl through different metrics: A. the percentage of the built-up area, B. built-up dispersion, and C. land uptake per person. The Percentage of Built-up Area (PBA) tells us what portion of a region is developed. This is simply the developed land area compared to the total area of the region. A higher percentage means more of the region is covered with buildings and infrastructure. Built-up Dispersion (DIS) allows to understand how spread out the buildings and development areas are in a city or region. It is calculated by looking at the distance between different points in these built-up areas. It is measured as Urban Permeation Units per square metre of built-up area (UPU/m²). The larger the number, the more spread out the area is, indicating a less compact urban layout. Land Uptake per Person (LUP) measures how much land is used on average for each person or job in the built-up area. It is found by dividing the total built-up area by the number of people in that area. Its unit is square metres per inhabitant (m² per inhabitant). Higher values suggest that people or jobs are using more land, indicating a lower density or more spacious setting.
Source: Authors’ computations using data from Pesaresi & Politis (2023[57]).
Note: The causal loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in opposite directions. This causal loop diagram highlights three reinforcing dynamics that hinder the shift to sustainable mobility. In loop A, increasing road capacity for mixed traffic reduces space for active and public transport, lowering the attractiveness of active modes. This boosts the appeal of matatus, boda bodas, and private cars. Loop B shows a quality trap: high service costs limit investment in matatus and boda bodas, reducing service quality and discouraging users. Loop C illustrates a structural trap: continued reliance on matatus delays investment in integrated mass/public transport, reinforcing infrastructure gaps. Together, these loops show how road expansion and fragmented investment in mass public transport undermine sustainable mobility, locking cities into inefficient, informal systems and discouraging mode shift towards active and collective transport.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Understanding the system and its dynamics, is key for identifying potential high-leverage points (HLPs). HLPs are places in the system where interventions can support producing more of what we want and less of what is undesirable (Meadows, 2009[45]). HLPs are identified through multiple means. In the case of Nakuru and Kiambu, they have been captured through the analysis of the causal loop diagrams presented in the previous section, as well as from reviews of policy documents and the interventions and discussions carried out during the workshops. These HLPs could allow policymakers to plan and implement actions that shift the outcomes from the current system towards the vision for 2050 portrayed in this case study. In fact, these HLPs were the basis for the policy solutions co‑designed with multiple stakeholders in Kiambu and Nakuru presented in the following section. Figure 2.18 shows the complete CLD, capturing the three dynamics discussed in the previous section, including the three HLPs identified for both cities.
Note: The causal loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in opposite directions. This figure brings together all the dynamics discussed before, while highlighting the high leverage points within the system.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
HLP 1: Make investment in transport infrastructure a lever for sustainable use of public space
This HLP is twofold. First, it aims to break the link between the pressure to reduce congestion and the expansion of road infrastructure for motorised traffic (see Figure 2.18). Second, it aims to change the polarity of the relationship between road infrastructure expansion and the allocation of space for non-motorised modes and urban functions other than transport. This will allow to support sustainable transport options, while also creating a better balance between urban space used for mobility, and proximity to services, recreation and green spaces, etc. (Figure 2.19).
Severing the connection between pressure to reduce congestion and road expansion will have significant implications for the system’s structure. Firstly, it will halt the continuous expansion of road capacity for motorised traffic each time congestion arises, preventing the lock-in of a system geared towards excessive use of motorised, particularly individual vehicles. While car usage is currently low, it is growing in both Nakuru and Kiambu. Global experience indicates that once an oversized capacity of road infrastructure dedicated to cars and other motorised traffic is established, it becomes a key factor perpetuating car dependence (OECD, 2021[47]; OECD, 2022[43]). This excessive capacity is problematic because it offers a continuous advantage to the use of cars and other motorised modes, at the expense of alternative and more sustainable transportation methods.
Reallocating road infrastructure is very challenging. Once space is allocated to motorised vehicles and the number of car users increases, reallocating and redesigning the space becomes a contentious, difficult, and costly process, as many cities worldwide are currently experiencing. The system mapping above demonstrates that expanding road infrastructure is fostering increased traffic and car use by creating induced demand and encouraging urban sprawl. Therefore, breaking this link before the system becomes irreversibly locked in is essential. Additionally, reducing the rapid expansion of roads will help prevent the acceleration of sprawl, control the increase in travel distances, and preserve the attractiveness of sustainable transportation modes (see Figure 2.18).
Changing the relationship between road infrastructure and the allocation of space for sustainable modes is also crucial (Figure 2.19). In rapidly growing cities like Nakuru and Kiambu, transportation connections and infrastructure need to expand and improve. Road infrastructure remains important and simply halting its expansion could lead to increased reliance on motorcycles. However, if these cities ensure that during necessary road expansion ample space is allocated for ensuring safe and convenient travel of sustainable modes, then these transport modes could become key actors and absorb relevant shares of trips. In other words, rather than road infrastructure being linked to induced demand of motorised traffic, it could start inducing the use of sustainable options. Modes such as walking, cycling and micromobility are not only less carbon intensive but also provide access with a lower spatial footprint. As such, the same amount of road space could provide more access, while also helping to significantly delay the pace at which congestion would build up (which would also help in producing much less pressure to reduce it). Allocating space towards sustainable modes can also include public transport. Matatus today often get stuck in mixed traffic and thus rethinking road allocation could significantly help in improving the service. This said, as discussed before limited regulation has led to the accelerated growth of these services in ways that have also made them part of rapidly growing traffic and congestion. Thus, other actions in the system are necessary (see more in HLP 3).
Overall, if relevant shares of mobility are being absorbed through sustainable modes, motorcycle usage could remain at manageable levels and without being replaced by car use. Promoting sustainable modes could also help control the proliferation of matatus by reducing the population’s dependence on these vehicles. This strategy could be complemented by upgrading and integrating matatus into a comprehensive and efficient transport system (see HLP 3).
Note: The causal loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in opposite directions. This causal loop diagram identifies three high-leverage points (HLPs) to shift urban mobility systems. HLP (A) focuses on reversing the typical relationship between road expansion and space allocation by ensuring that new road infrastructure also increases infrastructure for non-motorised and public transport. HLP (B) highlights the need to link congestion pressures to investments in mass/public transport, instead of defaulting to road expansion. HLP (C) proposes addressing congestion not by increasing road capacity, but by managing demand and improving sustainable alternatives. Together, these HLPs challenge car-centric planning and open space for inclusive, low-emission mobility systems.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
HLP 2: Avoid a system intense in mobility and poor accessibility
The second potential high-leverage point identified also concerns the physical structure of the system but extends beyond public space. As previously discussed, induced demand, increasing population growth, and the development of informal settlements contribute to the expansion of catchment areas (Figure 2.20). This expansion leads to decreased densities of people and places, resulting in longer travel distances and increasing the attractiveness of motorised vehicles. Interviews revealed that decisions about new roads – and prioritising their use for cars – especially in the context of weak planning and land regulation, have significantly influenced citizens’ choices regarding new developments in both Nakuru and Kiambu. Addressing this issue will initiate changes that can transform these cities. However, it is necessary to rethink, strengthen, and enhance spatial planning and regulation to prevent the increase of scattered and single-use developments, a topic extensively discussed during the workshop. Furthermore, as highlighted in the section on sprawl above, various market and social conditions also contribute to sprawl and single-use development, which needs to be addressed.
Changing the physical structure of a city – particularly the location of residential or commercial areas and services – can be especially challenging. Moreover, as argued by Donella Meadows (2009[45]), changing infrastructure can have long-term transformative effects, but is costly and takes time (see Box 2.7). As discussed in OECD (2022[43]), reallocating road space can influence the location of services and amenities to some extent, but this approach has limitations. Therefore, rethinking location, zoning, and development design before the coming decades – when both cities are expected to significantly increase their populations – will be particularly important.
As see in Figure 2.20, development and zoning decisions have a crucial impact on the density of people and places in the city. When catchment areas expand rapidly, this density tends to drop, increasing average distances that people need to travel to access services and opportunities. This disincentivises the use of sustainable modes like walking and cycling, which are particularly competitive for shorter distances, and incentivises the use of motorised modes. In particular, private modes become more attractive, as public services need a minimum density level to ensure profitability. In the case of Nakuru and Kiambu, this issue has become evident as matatus are not providing services in the further outskirts that have been rapidly growing in the latest decades. Low densities also limit the potential development of micro-mobility that could have a role in mid-sized trips (around 5-6 km). For this reason, spatial planning (including for roads) can play a crucial role in addressing relevant issues found to have an important impact in the expansion of the catchment area, including the development of informal settlements and promoting road space allocation. In parallel, mixed development that integrates residential, commercial, and entertainment spaces can foster work-life environments, reducing lengthy commutes as well as the associated externalities.
Note: The causal loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in opposite directions. The figure illustrates the areas captured by this HLP. It shows how strategies like spatial planning and mixed development can help to address the expansion of catchment areas. Indeed, both strategies decrease housing price differentials and informal settlements on catchment areas. As this takes place, density does not reduce too fast, which further limits the attractiveness of motorised transport.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
HLP 3: Getting mass public transport out of the low attractiveness trap
The third potential high-leverage point involves freeing collective transport from the current systemic trap. Implementing the two previous leverage points will help prevent widening the gap between cars and collective modes by avoiding rapid expansion of road infrastructure that favours only cars and low-capacity motorised vehicles (see Figure 2.21). However, the existing gap between collective and private modes has also arisen due to a lack of investment in mass transit and the current arrangement between the government and providers of collective modes like matatus and boda bodas. In this arrangement, the absence of stringent regulation compensates for the lack of financial support, but together they keep the system in a low-quality trap. This trap is further perpetuated by the absence of mass transit that could serve strategic corridors and form the backbone of an integrated system with potential synergies with active travel.
Breaking collective modes out of this trap highlights several potential interventions that rank high in Meadows’ framework (see Box 2.7). Since current regulations contribute to the low-attractiveness trap of existing collective modes, there is a need to explore changes in these rules (HLP 8 in the framework). New connections and structures may also be necessary (HLP 9 in the framework). In terms of physical infrastructure, the lack of mass transit connections is a significant gap, as extensively discussed in the workshops addressing this leverage point. Institutionally, establishing links between potential mass transit systems and current operators of existing collective modes – possibly by creating new institutions or organisations – is also a relevant discussion that was addressed during the workshops. The need for improved information flows (HLP 7 in the framework), especially by bringing incumbent operators together with policy experts and practitioners, was another key finding from the two-day workshop.
Alongside the expansion of road infrastructure, there has been no corresponding development of mass transit infrastructure. The lack of investment in developing a mass public transport system contributes to relying on matatus, which in turn increase the public infrastructure gap, which decreases the incentives for a mass public transport system (see Figure 2.21). As the cities expand, the gap between road capacity for cars and public transport capacity is rapidly growing. The larger this gap becomes, the more the system becomes locked into generating increased traffic and car usage. Therefore, changing investment decisions to reverse this gap as soon as possible – before the physical structure becomes fully developed and difficult to change – is crucial for progress.
Note: The causal loop diagram defines the relationship between different parts of the system. In this diagram, blue arrows indicate that two variables move in the same direction. In contrast, red arrows indicate that two variables move in opposite directions. This causal loop diagram highlights two key high-leverage points (HLPs) to improve urban mobility systems. HLP (B4) addresses the “quality trap” for matatus and boda bodas: high service costs and low investment reduce service quality, limiting user demand and discouraging reinvestment. Breaking this trap requires government support, improved standards, and funding to raise service quality. HLP (B5) focuses on the structural reliance on matatus, which delays investment in integrated mass/public transport (MPT), reinforcing infrastructure gaps. Strengthening willingness and funding for MPT can shift reliance away from informal systems, creating a more efficient, inclusive, and sustainable transport network.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
HLP 4: Promoting a mind shift and building on mass public transport aspirations
Shifting the public’s perception towards adopting sustainable modes of transport is also a key leverage point. Building on the current perceptions and aspirations for mass public transport (MPT) represents a transformative opportunity to foster sustainable urban development in Nakuru and Kiambu (see Figure 2.21). The identified preference for MPT over matatus, as highlighted in interviews and workshops conducted in both cities, underscores its symbolic association with modernity, progress, and enhanced quality of life. Leveraging this aspiration presents a high-leverage point to drive systemic change toward more sustainable urban mobility systems.
Promoting a mind shift for public transport has far-reaching implications. MPT, as a high-capacity, efficient, and low-emission alternative to private cars and informal transport modes, can significantly mitigate the risks of carbon lock-in. By reducing reliance on private vehicles, MPT adoption contributes to decreased greenhouse gas emissions, alleviation of traffic congestion, and improved air quality. This aligns with global and national climate goals while simultaneously enhancing the wellbeing of the urban population.
The public acceptance and aspirations for MPT can be critical in facilitating this transition. Public campaigns, strategic investments in high-quality infrastructure, and the demonstration of well-managed, reliable MPT systems can shape societal norms, making MPT a preferred mode of transport. Furthermore, targeted incentives, such as subsidised fares or improved connectivity to underserved areas, can accelerate behavioural changes, particularly among early adopters.
A relevant caveat is, however, that building on these aspirations should not override the necessity to move away from a system that is mobility intensive (as explained in HLP 3). Thus, it is important that mass transit is seen as a means to better utilise urban space and make necessary mobility more efficient (and less carbon intensive), but not as an excuse to ignore the need to reverse sprawl. Moreover, emphasising the complementarities between mass transit and other modes, such as active modes, will be important to changing current mental models (e.g. walking and cycling being modes for low-income people only) that are today ingrained in society.
High-leverage points (HLPs) are critical spots within a system where small interventions can lead to significant, long-lasting changes. The concept, introduced by Donella Meadows, stems from systems thinking and highlights how understanding the structure and dynamics of a system allows for more effective policy design. In her framework, Meadows outlines a hierarchy of 12 leverage points, ranking them from those with the least impact to the most transformative:
1. Constants, parameters, numbers: These are things like taxes, subsidies, and standards. While they are easy to change, they often have the least impact because they don’t alter the system’s structure.
2. The size of buffers: Buffers are the reserves of resources within a system (e.g. water storage or financial savings). Increasing buffer size can improve stability but can also make systems less responsive to changes.
3. Structure of material stocks and flows: This involves how resources move through a system, like transportation networks. Changing infrastructure can have long-term effects but is often slow and costly.
4. Length of delays: Delays in feedback loops, such as how quickly a system responds to changes, affect stability. Reducing delays can improve responsiveness but may also lead to instability if overdone.
5. Strength of negative feedback loops: Negative feedback stabilises systems (e.g. regulation to prevent overheating). Strengthening these loops can enhance system stability.
6. Gain around positive feedback loops: Positive feedback amplifies change (e.g. compounding growth). Increasing the gain of positive loops can rapidly accelerate growth or innovation but can also lead to runaway processes.
7. Structure of information flows: Who has access to information and how it is shared greatly influences system behaviour. Increasing transparency or improving data flow can shift decision-making and system outcomes.
8. Rules of the system: Changing rules, such as regulations or laws, can fundamentally alter system behaviour. Shifting who sets the rules can redistribute power and change outcomes.
9. Power to add, change, evolve system structure: The ability to self-organise allows systems to evolve. Encouraging this adaptability can help systems become more resilient to external shocks.
10. Goals of the system: Changing the overarching goals (e.g. from profit-maximisation to sustainability) reshapes the entire system’s behaviour and outcomes.
11. Mindset or paradigm out of which the system arises: Deeply embedded societal assumptions, like valuing economic growth over well-being, shape the entire system. Changing paradigms can lead to transformative changes across all sectors.
12. Power to transcend paradigms: The most powerful leverage point involves the ability to shift beyond current ways of thinking and envision entirely new systems. It reflects openness to continuous learning and change.
These 12 leverage points provide policymakers with a roadmap for understanding where to intervene in a system. By targeting the higher leverage points, policy interventions can lead to more impactful, sustainable, and resilient outcomes.
Source: Meadows (2009[45]).
Addressing climate change requires systemic change at the city level. This is a complex challenge that hinges on the ability of policymakers to instigate change in current systems’ structures, as well as shifts in mindsets – both of which might not be evident at first sight. This report, therefore, poses a critical question: what actions are essential for triggering systemic change and enhancing climate mitigation and resilience in cities like Nakuru and Kiambu?
A preliminary step towards answering this question involved identifying potential high-leverage points, presented in the previous section. The fourth and last step of the process, co-design aims to address these high-leverage points by identifying actions that can trigger systemic change. Participants in the workshop organised in Kiambu and Nakuru worked together with the OECD and UN-Habitat to discuss and co-design strategies for each of the high leverage points.
The co-design exercise enabled a constructive dialogue across different stakeholders. This included government areas responsible for planning, co-ordinating, and implementing transport and urban policies, as well as actors that play a key role in shaping and financing these policies, such as the private sector, NGOs, and international organisations. The effectiveness of policy actions is contingent upon this dialogue. Without bringing all these different voices together, policy strategies risk being silo‑oriented, and incapable of identifying policy complementarities and trade-offs.
The co-design exercise led to three key achievements. First, it encouraged policymakers and stakeholders to design policies and strategies with a systemic perspective, ensuring that interventions are not isolated measures but part of a broader effort to transform the system towards a shared, long-term vision. This approach moves beyond incremental improvements, aiming for deep structural change. Second, it helped operationalise policies by defining relevant indicators and key targets to measure success. This ensures that policies are not only aspirational but also actionable and trackable, allowing decision‑makers to assess whether the system is evolving in the intended direction. Finally, the co‑design exercise facilitates the identification of key actors and their roles within the system. By assessing whether these actors are natural allies or require further engagement to support transformational policies, the process enhances the feasibility of implementation. This step is crucial in recognising potential resistance and creating strategies to bring hesitant or opposing stakeholders on board.
The rest of this section looks at actions that can be implemented to address these HLPs, delving into the results of the co-design exercises conducted during workshops in Nakuru and Kiambu. It is important to highlight that these results are not direct policy recommendations for the cities of Nakuru and Kiambu. Instead, they should be seen as a series of innovative ideas to inspire local and national authorities and can provide guidance for areas of future policy reform, as well as constituting a basis for planning instruments (e.g. mobility plan, climate change policy).
Co-designing strategies in Nakuru
Participants in the workshop were divided into four groups. Each group was assigned a HLP to work on. It is important to note that, since HLPs are interconnected within the system, there is a natural overlap. Thus, some actors and issues appear in more than one HLP. For instance, urban development – in principle – linked directly to the second HLP, is mentioned in the first HLP. Road reallocation being more directly linked to the first HLP, is brought up as a means for addressing the fourth HLP. These overlaps are relevant, since they show that addressing root causes of carbon lock-in require strategies that consider multiple and co-ordinated policy actions.
How to reduce congestion while enhancing space for sustainable modes as well as green and public spaces (HLP 1)?
When policymakers and stakeholders began developing a strategy focusing on HLP 1, they recognised the central role of space in shaping transport policy. This led to a more integrated approach to discussing public and private space planning, emphasising the need to rethink how urban space overall is allocated and utilised. A key issue that emerged was the allocation of space to parking, which was critically questioned as stakeholders highlighted the opportunity cost of dedicating large areas to private vehicles instead of for more sustainable use. Another crucial aspect discussed was the importance of planning for green spaces, not only for environmental and recreational purposes but also as a key component of urban resilience. Additionally, participants stressed that dedicating space to public transport infrastructure is essential to making it a viable and competitive option. By ensuring that public transport has adequate infrastructure – such as dedicated lanes and well-planned stops – cities can enhance efficiency and attract more users, reducing reliance on private cars and contributing to a low-carbon urban future.
Policy actions for HLP 1
Reducing parking spaces within the Central Business District (CBD) was seen as a strategic measure. Limiting parking availability acts as a deterrent to driving personal vehicles into densely populated urban areas. Coupled with policies on hourly parking fees, this approach makes the use of private cars less economically attractive. The expected outcome is a reduction in the number of private vehicles circulating and lingering within the CBD, thereby freeing up space for active transport modes like walking and cycling. This creates a more pedestrian-friendly environment and contributes to improved air quality due to reduced vehicular emissions.
The design and implementation of a comprehensive land-use policy appeared crucial in guiding sustainable urban development and addressing the first HLP. Such a policy would prioritise the allocation of land for green and recreational spaces, ensuring that urban growth (including roads) does not come at the expense of environmental well-being. Participants considered that by integrating green spaces into urban planning, the city can enhance biodiversity, provide essential ecological services, and offer recreational areas that improve the quality of life for residents. Moreover, increased green and recreational spaces contribute to the city’s aesthetic appeal and serve as vital areas for community engagement and physical activity.
Participants considered that these actions could collectively address HLP 1 by reallocating urban space to favour active and mass transport over private vehicle use, and by preserving areas for green spaces. The expected outcomes align with the overarching goal of sustainable urban development identified in the envisioning exercise conducted in the framework of this study. Participants mentioned that reducing the number of private vehicles in the CBD alleviates traffic congestion, enhances road safety, and reduces environmental pollution. Furthermore, expanding green and recreational spaces within the city supports environmental sustainability and provides social benefits. Green areas were also mentioned as potential carbon sinks that could help in mitigating the impacts of climate change, while offering residents places for leisure and social interaction, fostering a sense of community and promoting public health through opportunities for physical activity.
The discussion highlighted that to effectively implement these policies, collaboration among government agencies, stakeholders, and the community will be essential. Moreover, communication could play a pivotal role. Stakeholders mentioned that public awareness campaigns can educate citizens on the benefits of using public transport and engaging in active transport modes. However, as also mentioned later in the text regarding other HLPs, discussions on the need for channelling investments into public transport infrastructure, such as for expanding bus fleets and improving service reliability, were also highlighted as necessary to make mass transport a viable alternative to private cars. Additionally, developing safe and accessible pedestrian and cycling infrastructure was acknowledged as encouraging active transport and enhancing the overall mobility network.
How can better planning promote proximity and access rather than mobility (HLP 2)?
When policymakers and stakeholders developed a strategy focusing on HLP 2 they recognised the need to align their Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) with broader spatial policies. This understanding highlighted the importance of integrating transport planning with land-use strategies to create more compact, well-connected urban environments that reduce dependency on private vehicles. A key shift in thinking emerged around capital investment planning, with participants acknowledging the need to change investment priorities. Like the discussions in HLP 1, there was a strong emphasis on bringing green space investment to the centre of urban development strategies. This shift in focus not only supports sustainable mobility but also enhances urban resilience by bringing focus to the need for incorporating nature-based solutions into city planning.
The systemic approach to transport problems also led to broader discussions on climate adaptation and mitigation. Similarly to discussions regarding HLP 1, participants observed that interventions aimed at transforming the transport system – such as promoting compact urban forms and enhancing green spaces – could also contribute to creating carbon sinks, which help mitigate emissions while improving overall urban liveability. Finally, stakeholders recognised the need to make urban sprawl reduction an explicit policy goal. Without clear objectives to limit sprawl, cities risk continuing unsustainable expansion patterns that increase car dependency, infrastructure costs, and environmental degradation. Making sprawl reduction a core priority would help ensure that urban growth supports accessibility, sustainability, and resilience.
Policy actions for HLP 2
The design and implementation of a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) was considered vital in promoting efficient and environmentally friendly transportation options. It was recognised by participants that the SUMP can act as a guide for aligning policy actions towards the 2050 vision of Nakuru that was developed through the workshops, while guiding investment into sustainable transport modes (for instance, investing in non-motorised transport infrastructure such as walkways and cycle lanes). The plan was considered as a means to guide the development of mass transport systems like Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and the adoption of e-mobility solutions. These initiatives aim to reduce traffic congestion, decrease travel times, and lower pollution levels by offering reliable alternatives to private vehicle use. The SUMP, however, would have to be aligned with spatial planning efforts, as discussed when addressing the first HLP. Moreover, the SUMP should consider the functional urban area (FUA) of Nakuru to provide a more comprehensive framework for action and align with zoning regulation.
Zoning regulations were discussed during the workshop and were considered as instrumental in organising urban spaces effectively. Participants highlighted that by strategically combining areas for residential, commercial, and industrial use, the city can minimise travel distances and promote mixed-use developments. This strategic zoning enhances accessibility to essential services and amenities, reducing reliance on long commutes and promoting a functional compact city. For this reason, zoning regulations were highlighted as essential and overall spatial planning is strategically designed in line with the SUMP.
A Capital Investment Plan would complement the SUMP by outlining specific infrastructural projects essential for achieving the city’s strategic objectives. This includes the construction, expansion, and rehabilitation of roads to improve connectivity. NMT infrastructure, as well as investment in greening, beautification, and landscaping projects enhances the urban environment, contributing to increased carbon sinks and tree cover, which are vital for mitigating the impacts of climate change.
The digitalisation of government services also emerged as an important tool among participants in shaping urban mobility patterns, with both synergies and trade-offs in play. On the one hand, expanding digital services was said to reduce the need for long commutes by allowing residents to access administrative and public services remotely. This was seen as contributing to a more sustainable urban system by decreasing travel demand, easing congestion, and lowering carbon emissions. However, stakeholders also highlighted the need to balance digital connectivity with the physical accessibility of services, ensuring that urban planning does not overlook those who still rely on in-person interactions. Moreover, an important consideration is the potential impact on commercial traffic. While digitalisation may reduce individual travel needs, it could lead to increased logistical movements, especially as demand for e-commerce and delivery services grows. In terms of transport, the implementation of seamless payment systems in public transport can enhance user convenience and encourage the use of mass transit options. These actions could align with the SUMP to consolidate a Smart City Integrated Policy for Nakuru.
Participants agreed that the expected outcomes of these policy actions are multifaceted. For instance, it was considered that through a SUMP that aligns with spatial planning, and a coherent capital investment plan, Nakuru can advance to consolidate a functional compact city that limits urban sprawl as a key goal, making it easier for residents to access services and amenities. These strategies were expected to reduce travel times, which improves the overall well-being of citizens by decreasing the stress associated with long commutes and freeing up time for other activities. The digitalisation of services was also considered to add to these efforts. Moreover, participants considered that the decongestion of urban areas is expected to reduce the economic costs associated with traffic delays and further reduce pollution levels and traffic accidents.
How to provide attractive public transport, while addressing limitations of boda bodas and matatus (HLP 3)?
Participants agreed that creating an attractive public transport system in Nakuru requires addressing the limitations of existing modes, such as boda bodas and matatus, and overcoming delays in establishing efficient mass transit networks. Moreover, when participants focused on a strategy for addressing HLP 3, they shifted away from the idea of outright banning certain transport services and instead explored how to transition towards more sustainable alternatives. The conversation evolved towards phasing out detrimental vehicles, while ensuring that transport services continue to evolve in ways that support accessibility, efficiency, and sustainability.
The discussions also underscored the strong connections between sustainable transport, economic development, and industrial and workforce policies. Participants recognised that transitioning to cleaner transport modes cannot happen in isolation, it requires co-ordinated efforts to support local industries, create green jobs, and develop skills that match the needs of a low-carbon transport system. Without addressing these broader economic dimensions, transport policies risk facing resistance or failing to deliver lasting change.
While there was strong support for improving mass transit and formalising matatus, participants also highlighted that central urban areas should prioritise active mobility. This was seen as designing city centres in ways that encourage walking and cycling, ensuring that space is not just allocated for vehicles but supports a more human-centred, low-carbon urban environment.
A key takeaway from this exercise was the robustness of a systems-based approach to facilitate dialogue between actors with conflicting interests. By framing transport issues within a broader systemic perspective, discussions moved beyond isolated disputes toward more comprehensive solutions that accommodate diverse needs and perspectives.
Finally, participants engaged in a critical conversation about mental models and public perception. They acknowledged that achieving a sustainable transition requires not only technical solutions but also a shift in public attitudes and behaviours. This consideration highlighted the need for awareness and education campaigns to bring the population on board, ensuring that people understand, support, and actively participate in the transformation of urban mobility.
Policy actions for HLP 3
One key policy action discussed by workshop participants was the transition from motorbikes to electric bikes for both passenger and cargo transport. This shift to electric mobility was considered to align with global efforts to promote clean energy and reduce carbon emissions. Electric bikes were considered to offer numerous benefits, including lower operating costs, reduced noise pollution, and decreased environmental impact. By adopting electric bikes, participants saw an opportunity for the city to modernise the boda boda sector, making it more sustainable and appealing to environmentally conscious users.
Establishing spare parts hubs for electric bikes and investing in technical expertise were considered critical for the sustainability of the electric transport initiative. Ensuring the availability of spare parts and maintenance services was seen as essential for the reliability of electric vehicles. Developing a skilled workforce through training and capacity-building programmes was considered key to support the long-term viability of the electric mobility sector, while creating job opportunities.
In the case of matatus, an extensive discussion during the workshop focused on redefining their role. In particular, it was proposed to concentrate matatu services within the CBD. By optimising matatu operations for intra-city travel, it was considered that the city could enhance the efficiency and reliability of public transport services. This reorganisation could reduce traffic congestion caused by matatus operating on long and often overlapping routes. Overall, participants believed that concentrating matatu services within the town could improve accessibility and reduce waiting times for passengers, making public transport a more attractive option.
The introduction of larger capacity vehicles, such as buses, was considered as a service that could focus on areas outside the CBD due to space limitations and current urban planning constraints. Participants considered that deploying larger vehicles in less congested areas maximises passenger capacity and minimises the number of vehicles on the road, contributing to reduced traffic congestion and improved air quality. This strategic deployment was seen as a policy option that could ensure that mass transport options are available where they can operate most efficiently.
Participants considered that the main expected outcome of these policy actions was the development of an attractive public transport system that meets the needs of Nakuru’s residents. Modernising transport services and introducing efficient mass transit options were seen as actions that could increase public transport usage, reduce reliance on private vehicles, and enhance overall mobility. Overall, it was agreed that an improved public transport system could significantly contribute to decongested roads, lower environmental pollution, and a more sustainable urban environment.
During the discussion, it was agreed that implementing these policies would require collaboration with stakeholders, including transport operators, regulatory bodies, and the community. Engaging with boda boda and matatu operators was considered essential to facilitate the transition to new modes of operation and vehicle types. Providing incentives, such as subsidies or financing options, was also considered key to encourage operators to adopt electric vehicles and adjust their services accordingly.
Public awareness campaigns were considered to play a crucial role in promoting the benefits of the new transport options and addressing potential concerns. It was agreed that educating the public about the environmental advantages, cost savings, and improved service quality would help to build support for the initiatives. Participants highlighted that a key aspect of this strategy will be demonstrating the reliability and efficiency of electric bikes, reorganising matatu services, and creating synergies between them.
Although shifting mindsets through public awareness and education will play an important role, it was considered that the successful implementation of these actions will not be possible without the right infrastructure. Indeed, participants emphasised that infrastructure development, including the installation of charging stations for electric bikes and the creation of dedicated lanes for buses and matatus will be necessary to reduce the use of private cars. Moreover, they agreed that by integrating these services with other modes of transport, such as walking and cycling networks, these actions will lead to a comprehensive mobility system that caters to various user preferences.
How to shift mindsets to avoid a car-centric future (HLP 4)?
It was broadly agreed by participants that achieving sustainable urban mobility in Nakuru not only requires infrastructural and policy changes, but also a fundamental shift in societal attitudes towards transportation. When participants developed a strategy focusing on HLP4, they recognised that behavioural change requires a combination of actions. A key realisation was that the way public infrastructure is designed directly influences people’s mobility choices and mindsets. It was agreed that well-planned urban spaces that prioritise sustainable transport can naturally encourage walking, cycling, and public transport use, while car-centric designs reinforce automobile dependency.
An important insight was the need for a dual strategy: applying disincentives for car use while simultaneously creating strong incentives for public transport. Participants discussed policies such as congestion pricing, parking restrictions, and reallocation of road space to active and mass transport, coupled with investments in high-quality, reliable public transit. They agreed that these approaches, when implemented together, can effectively shift travel behaviour and reduce urban carbon footprints.
Additionally, the discussion acknowledged the broader system-wide impacts of transport policies, emphasising the role of education, public awareness campaigns, and participatory planning in shaping long-term behavioural change. The education system, particularly youth engagement, was identified as a critical area for intervention, as younger generations can be key drivers of sustainable mobility shifts. Complementary public campaigns and inclusive planning processes were also highlighted as essential tools for fostering a cultural shift away from car dependency and towards a more sustainable urban future.
Policy actions for HLP 4
Pedestrianisation of streets was seen as a key policy action for promoting behavioural change. This action seemed key for transforming the urban landscape to prioritise people over cars. By designating certain streets as pedestrian-only zones, the city could create safe and accessible spaces for walking, socialising, and commerce. It was considered that this initiative would further encourage residents to walk for short trips, reducing the reliance on private vehicles and contributing to decreased traffic congestion and pollution. Pedestrianised areas were also considered key to enhance the vibrancy of the city, attracting businesses and fostering community interactions.
Incentivising the use of mass public transport (MPT) and non-motorised transport (NMT) was considered essential for encouraging behaviour change. Participants highlighted that incentives could take various forms, such as subsidised fares, tax benefits, or rewards programmes for frequent users. These measures could make sustainable transport options more economically attractive and significantly increase their adoption. Additionally, it was considered that disincentives for car use, such as congestion charges or increased parking fees (as discussed in the case of HLP1), could complement these efforts.
Integrating sustainable energy curricula into educational institutions was seen as a long-term strategy to cultivate environmental awareness and responsibility among the younger generation. It was agreed that by incorporating topics on sustainable transport, energy conservation, and environmental stewardship into the curriculum, schools can foster a culture that values sustainability. Participants considered that educated youths are more likely to adopt and advocate for sustainable practices, influencing broader societal attitudes over time.
Overall, it was broadly agreed that engaging the community through awareness campaigns, education, and participatory planning processes is crucial to successfully shift mindsets. Participants agreed that highlighting the benefits of sustainable transport, such as health improvements, cost savings, and environmental protection, could help build public support. Moreover, showcasing successful examples and providing platforms for community input would ensure that policies are responsive to residents’ needs and preferences.
As mobility needs grow in Kenyan cities, so do the environmental and social challenges linked to road congestion, air pollution, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Responding to these challenges calls for approaches that go beyond infrastructure provision to consider how people move, why they move, and how systems shape those choices.
The Avoid–Shift–Improve (ASI) framework, frequently used by UN-Habitat (Figure 2.22), offers a structured lens for developing integrated transport and land-use strategies that support climate mitigation:
Avoid: Reduce or eliminate the need for motorised travel through compact urban development and better land-use planning.
Shift: Promote a transition to more sustainable modes such as walking, cycling, and public transport.
Improve: Increase the efficiency of vehicles and fuels through cleaner technologies and innovation.
The ASI approach complements broader systems thinking by highlighting the multiple entry points available to reduce emissions and improve urban mobility. It draws attention to the importance of combining spatial, behavioural, and technological measures rather than treating them in isolation. In intermediary cities, where resources and institutional capacity may be constrained, the ASI framework reaffirms the need to prioritise actions that deliver co-benefits – such as improved air quality, reduced travel costs, and greater access to opportunities – while advancing long-term sustainability goals.
Source: GIZ (2019[58]).
Indicators and targets to monitor success in transforming Nakuru
Stakeholders were also asked to collaboratively think about key outcomes that would indicate that the policies and actions implemented were successful in making the changes related to the different HLPs, thus triggering systemic change towards the 2050 vision for Nakuru. They were also asked to think about indicators, and targets that could help monitor success. The discussions were organised around the four HLPs. Table 2.1 showcases the results from this exercise.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
The first group was tasked with HLP 1 and thus with ensuring planning and investment of infrastructure results in adequate stocks of space for active and mass transport, and green and recreational space. Participants highlighted that reducing congestion, increasing green and recreational spaces, and expanding mass public transport systems would be key outcomes that would be seen if change with respect to HLP 1 were made. To measure these outcomes, indicators such as travel time, the percentage of space allocated to green areas, and the population using mass transport were proposed. Participants brought forward the idea that by 2050, travel time should be halved, green space increased to 30%, and at least three new mass transport systems established.
To address HLP 2, the second group’s outcome focused on guiding city growth to ensure proximity and accessibility. Key actions considered included reducing walking or cycling distances to daily activities to a maximum of 15 minutes, decentralising government services, and achieving a compact city with efficient infrastructure. Indicators such as maximum distance to services, population density, and public transport usage were proposed. Targets included a fully functioning compact city, 15-minute accessibility, and the integration of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Non-Motorised Transport (NMT).
The third group addressed the third HLP by focusing on safety, efficiency, accessibility, and reliability in public transport systems. Actions included reducing transport-related accidents, enhancing planned routes, and improving environmental sustainability. Proposed indicators included accident reduction rates, reliability of public transport services, and reductions in carbon emissions. Targets for 2050 included a 50% reduction in accidents, an 80% reduction in fatalities, and a 60-90% reduction in carbon emissions, alongside 24-hour public transport service availability.
Finally, for addressing HLP 4, the fourth group’s objective sought to shift mindsets to avoid a car-centric future by promoting mass rapid transport, formulating supportive policies, and ensuring budgetary allocations for infrastructure and sensitisation programmes. Indicators included the number of people using BRT and trams, the extent of policy implementation, and investment in MPT and NMT. Targets included achieving 70% population use of public transport, full BRT coverage of Nakuru and neighbouring municipalities, and annual sensitisation campaigns supported by significant financial investments.
Together, these objectives, indicators, and targets aimed to create policy alternatives for guiding Nakuru’s sustainable urban development. Overall, through the proposed indicators, participants aimed to inform policy actions that reduce congestion, improve safety and accessibility, promote green spaces, and enhance public transport infrastructure, ultimately creating an inclusive, efficient, and environmentally sustainable urban system by 2050.
Which key actors and stakeholders have to be considered for Nakuru’s transformation strategy?
During the workshop, participants worked together to identify key actors for moving forward with the policy actions needed to address the different HLPs. These results offer a valuable framework for understanding the complexity of stakeholder engagement when addressing HLPs. Figure 2.23 shows the diagrams for each HLP. Key actors are distributed across four quadrants, based on their level of influence and their stance towards the proposed policy actions, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for effective policy implementation.
For HLP 1, which focuses on reducing congestion while enhancing green and public spaces, it was agreed during the discussion that there is strong support from influential actors, including national and county governments, the Ministry of Environment, and development partners. Their alignment signals the importance of multi-level co-ordination mechanisms for policy and funding initiatives. However, participants considered that opposition exists among other high-influence actors, such as the business community and public transport operators (like boda boda), reflecting concerns about potential disruptions to commercial activities or transport operations. Low-influence opposition was expected to come from hawkers and street families, which highlights the need for inclusive solutions that address the socio-economic vulnerabilities of marginalised groups. The discussion highlighted the potential support of NMT users and law enforcement officers, which could provide an entry point for building momentum at the community level that helps move forward innovative solutions towards place making strategies.
Note: The figures encompass all the answers of the participants, who originally designed these diagrams on their own.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Participants agreed that addressing HLP2, which seeks to promote proximity and access over mobility, would require co-ordination across a wide array of high-influence supporters, including private investors, research institutions, and citizens. The latter suggests significant potential for innovative mechanisms that promote participatory and inclusive planning. However, participants identified transport operators and segments of the political class as influential opposition, underscoring the challenge of realigning entrenched interests with long-term urban planning objectives. Moreover, addressing informal traders’ resistance, despite them being considered as a low-influence group, remains essential for ensuring positive social outcomes. The expected support from faith-based organisations and NMT users presents an opportunity to foster grassroots advocacy for policies that prioritise proximity and accessibility.
Participants agreed that, to address HLP 3, it was important to consider the roles of high-influence supporters, such as national and county governments, international partners, and private investors, who offer a foundation for large-scale interventions. However, this will require strengthening the capacity for deploying multi-level co-ordination mechanisms. The implementation of these mechanisms should further consider the fact that there may be significant opposition from the operators central to public transport today (boda bodas, tuk-tuks, and matatus), which poses a critical challenge. These concerns likely stem from fears of increased regulation or competition, which must be addressed through engagement and incentives that connect mass public transport to efficiently regulated paratransit services. While private car owners and taxis were considered to have relatively low influence, their potential resistance reflects broader tensions about the transition to a more inclusive and efficient transport system, which could translate into less road space allocated for cars or stringent parking regulations. Encouragingly, academia and business stakeholders were seen as supporters, who could advance data-driven and innovative solutions to help facilitate a mindset shift towards more sustainable transport.
Finally, for addressing HLP 4, national and county governments, development partners, the political class, the civil society, and the private sector were considered to be aligned in favour of this transition. This presents a good opportunity to leverage public-private collaboration to deploy communication campaigns and innovative solutions that promote NMT. However, participants assumed resistance from public transport operators and segments of the political class, which suggests potential friction in implementing mindset-shifting campaigns. Low-influence support was considered to come from academia and NMT users. Despite their low influence, these actors can help sustain advocacy efforts. Participants considered opposition coming from private car owners, underscoring the need for targeted behaviour change initiatives to address deeply ingrained car-centric aspirations.
Co-designing strategies in Kiambu
How to reduce congestion while enhancing space for sustainable modes as well as green and public spaces (HLP 1)?
During Kiambu’s workshop, participants – mainly policymakers and stakeholders – considered that the private sector could play a key role in expanding green and public spaces (HLP 1). This was seen as an opportunity to establish clear guidelines and partnerships that ensure private contributions align with public interests. Moving forward, however, integrating discussions on the balance between public and private space will be essential to guarantee accessibility and long-term benefits for all residents.
A key takeaway from the discussions was the critical role of data in designing transformative policies. Participants acknowledged that without reliable spatial and mobility data, it is difficult to make informed decisions about space allocation and transport planning. Moreover, strengthening data collection and analysis was considered key to support more precise and accessibility-driven policy interventions, ensuring that transport investments enhance accessibility rather than reinforce existing congestion patterns.
Participants also saw public transport as a dual solution, not only to ease congestion but also to free up space for public and green areas. It was considered that, by reducing the dominance of private vehicles, well-planned transit systems can create opportunities for expanded pedestrian zones, parks, and shared public spaces. To fully leverage this potential, participants agreed that it would be important to define specific policy mechanisms and investments that integrate public transport planning with urban space management, ensuring that mobility solutions contribute to a greener and more inclusive city.
Policy actions for HLP 1
The establishment of PPPs for the implementation and operationalisation of infrastructure development was seen as a critical policy action. It was considered that, by collaborating with private entities, the government can leverage additional resources, expertise, and efficiencies that are often beyond the capacity of the public sector alone. These partnerships were seen as instruments with the potential to accelerate the development of infrastructure projects such as mass transport systems and recreational facilities. Although only briefly discussed, participants also highlighted some potential caveats related to PPPs. These limitations are usually due to misaligned public and private interests, leading to suboptimal outcomes for public welfare, as well as high transaction costs and lengthy contract negotiations which can delay project delivery.
Generating people-centred data on land use and green spaces was also considered a pivotal policy action. Accurate and up-to-date data on existing land use and green spaces was seen as a key instrument that would allow for informed decision-making regarding land acquisition and compensation. This data collection could involve mapping and classification of land use, assessing its utilisation and identifying areas lacking green spaces. With this information, the government could plan for the expansion and enhancement of public and recreational facilities, ensuring they meet the community’s needs.
Reducing carbon emissions was seen as a significant environmental outcome stemming from these initiatives. Participants broadly agreed on the need for an efficient mass transport system that encourages residents to opt for public transportation over private vehicles, leading to fewer cars on the road and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, expanding green spaces was considered as a key policy action that contributes to carbon sequestration, improving air quality and mitigating the urban heat island effect.
How can better planning promote proximity rather than mobility (HLP 2)?
When policymakers and stakeholders in Kiambu developed a strategy focusing on guiding city growth to ensure proximity and accessibility (HLP 2), they recognised the fundamental role of a master plan based on maximising accessibility rather than simply improving mobility. This shift in perspective highlighted the need to plan urban spaces in a way that reduces travel distances and improves connectivity between residential areas, workplaces, and essential services. By prioritising accessibility, participants considered that Kiambu could move away from car-dependent development and towards a more integrated and efficient urban system.
For this strategy to be effective, stakeholders identified better and more precise data as a necessary condition. Improved data collection and analysis would not only support better transport and land-use planning but also help anticipate demand for public services and guide investment decisions. Moreover, strengthening data-driven decision-making could allow Kiambu to align infrastructure and service provision with actual urban dynamics, ensuring resources are allocated where they are most needed.
Similar to discussions under HLP 1, public-private partnerships (PPPs) were seen as a tool to promote accessibility. However, participants agreed that to fully capitalise on their potential, stakeholders need to define clear areas of action where PPPs can contribute most effectively. Moving forward, there was broad agreement on the need to identify specific projects, governance structures, and investment frameworks to ensure that PPPs support accessibility in a way that aligns with broader urban development goals.
Policy actions for HLP 2
Strengthening planning and zoning instruments was considered as a foundational policy action. Participants saw zoning regulations as a necessary tool for managing land use effectively, preventing haphazard development and urban sprawl. It was considered that, by delineating specific zones for residential, commercial, industrial, and recreational purposes, the city could promote a balanced urban environment. Participants argued that strategic zoning could facilitate the development of a master plan that serves as a blueprint for future growth. Building regulations were seen to complement this by ensuring that constructions meet safety standards and align with the city’s aesthetic and functional objectives.
As in the case of the first HLP, collecting data was considered essential for informed decision-making. Gathering population statistics, demographic data, status of amenities, and commuting and traffic data was seen as a necessary input for a comprehensive understanding of the current urban-transport landscape. This information could help identify the needs of a growing population, as well as the gaps in the provision of transport infrastructure and public services, allowing policymakers to prioritise areas for promoting accessibility. Moreover, data-driven insights were considered key to guide capital investment plans in order to allocate resources efficiently, targeting projects that will have the most significant impact on proximity and accessibility.
Modernising business models by transitioning from traditional practices to digital platforms was seen as an interesting way to enhance efficiency and service delivery. Digitalisation automates processes, centralises information, and makes services more accessible to residents and businesses. Thus, participants considered that such platforms could not only reduce transaction costs, but also translate into a lower number of trips, time saving, and less cars in the streets.
Public-private partnerships were also considered to play a pivotal role in infrastructure development for promoting proximity. During the discussion, participants focused on the assumption that by collaborating with private entities, the government can leverage additional capital, technical expertise, and innovative solutions for infrastructure projects that promote proximity. In particular, PPPs were considered necessary for the implementation of mass transport projects, such as the construction of a BRT.
The expected outcomes of these policy actions were considered multifaceted. The development of a comprehensive master plan and updated building regulations were seen as outcomes that would ensure that city growth is guided by strategic objectives. A capital investment plan rooted in robust data which would enable targeted resource allocation thereby maximising the impact of investments, was also considered as a concrete outcome.
How to provide attractive public transport, while addressing limitations in Boda Bodas and Matatus (HLP 3)?
Participants developed a strategy focusing on improving the service provided by boda bodas and matatus, while addressing inefficiencies in the provision of mass public transit (HLP 3). To this end, they recognised that not all transport challenges can be solved through new infrastructure investments alone. Instead, they emphasised the importance of maximising the efficiency of existing paratransit services, which currently dominate urban mobility. Setting clear standards and pricing schemes was seen as an effective way to improve service quality of paratransit services, enhance reliability, and ensure that informal transport integrates more effectively into the broader urban transport system.
A major policy insight was the role of public space in shaping sustainable public transport. Participants acknowledged that dedicated lanes for public transport are not only necessary for improving efficiency and reliability but also contribute to broader social benefits, such as reducing road accidents. There was broad agreement that by prioritising space for collective transport over private vehicles, Kiambu can create a safer and more accessible urban environment while reinforcing sustainable mobility choices.
Additionally, there was strong consensus on the need to integrate paratransit providers into the deployment of mass rapid transit (MRT) planning from the earliest stages. Participants recognised that failing to engage informal transport operators could lead to resistance and undermine efforts to develop an efficient, well co‑ordinated transit system. It was broadly agreed that, by actively involving paratransit providers in the planning process, Kiambu can ensure that MRT investments complement rather than displace existing services, creating a smoother transition towards a more integrated and sustainable transport network.
Policy actions for HLP 3
Involving paratransit service providers during the design and implementation phases of MRTs was considered to be crucial for the successful rollout of new infrastructure. It was agreed that engaging operators, drivers, and other stakeholders would ensure that the system meets practical needs and garners support from those who will be using and operating it daily. Moreover, this could lead to higher uptake of MRT services by both users and service providers.
Streamlining the operation of the mass transport system through public regulation was seen as a policy action that could ensure efficiency and reliability. Participants considered that regulations can standardise service quality, scheduling, and pricing, making public transport more user-friendly. Enhanced and regulated mass transport operations were seen as instruments to increase the uptake of MRT services, which could improve in quality, making them more attractive for commuters and a real alternative to private vehicles.
In line with the latter, another policy action extensively discussed was the designation of dedicated lanes for MRT use, an infrastructure investment that could significantly improve efficiency and safety. It was agreed that dedicated lanes prevent MRT vehicles from getting caught in general traffic congestion, ensuring timely services. As such, this improvement could lead to a reduction in traffic congestion overall, as more commuters would opt for the faster and more reliable MRT options. Participants also agreed that this could enhance safety, as dedicated lanes tend to reduce the likelihood of accidents involving MRT vehicles and other road users.
Participants considered that the expected outcomes of these policy actions included a significant increase in the efficiency and reliability of MRT services, which could encourage more commuters to use public transport, alleviating traffic congestion and reducing emissions from private vehicles.
Indicators and targets for Kiambu
During the workshop, stakeholders identified critical policy objectives and developed corresponding indicators and targets to address the HLPs that could guide urban and transport development by 2050. The four groups addressed distinct yet interconnected priorities.
The first group focused on increasing space for active and mass transportation, as well as green recreational areas (HLP 1). Key selected indicators included the number of green spaces, mass transport users, and kilometres of designated transport lanes, with a target of reclaiming 10 to 12 green spaces per sub-county and achieving 1 000 kilometres of designated transport lanes.
The second group emphasised improving access to essential services (HLP 2). They proposed indicators such as time taken to access services, the distance to amenities, and population-to-services ratios. By 2050, they aimed to ensure access within 15 minutes, implement reliable mass transit systems, and design self-contained neighbourhoods to curb urban sprawl.
The third group prioritised enhancing public transport systems to reduce emissions, accidents, and congestion (HLP 3). Their targets included reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80%, halving traffic congestion and accidents, and increasing public transport usage to 60% by 2050. They also highlighted the importance of ensuring accessibility for vulnerable populations.
The fourth group advocated for a shift away from car-centric urban planning (HLP 4). Their indicators focused on increasing the use of non-motorised transport, reducing low-capacity vehicle usage, and promoting public transport and carpooling. By 2050, they aimed to integrate non-motorised transport into all road designs and reduce low-capacity vehicles in city centres to below 10%.
These objectives and their corresponding metrics provide a comprehensive framework for sustainable urban and transport development, ensuring environmental, social, and economic benefits.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Which key actors and stakeholders have to be considered for Kiambu’s transformation strategy?
Figure 2.24 presents the classification of key actors in the context of an urban development strategy, as derived from Kiambu’s workshop. This figure reveals a complex stakeholder landscape pivotal to the success of urban development strategies. It emphasises the need for nuanced engagement across all quadrants. As in the case of Nakuru discussed above, high-influence supporters offer critical backing for policy and implementation, while high-influence opponents highlight the necessity for inclusive planning and concertation processes. Low-influence stakeholders, both supporters and opponents, underscore the importance of community engagement and social legitimacy. Effective urban development strategies that would help achieve Kiambu’s vision therefore hinge on a balanced approach that addresses concerns, leverages support, and fosters broad-based collaboration.
Note: The figure encompasses all the answers of the participants, who originally designed this diagram on their own.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
For addressing HLP 1, participants in Kiambu’s workshop saw significant opposition from high-influence actors such as matatu and boda boda operators. It was assumed that these groups view interventions as potentially disruptive to their operations, making their engagement crucial for success. Private motorists and low-income vendors, while low in influence, were considered to also resist such changes, reflecting concerns over equity and accessibility. Governments, development partners, and the business community were some of the main actors seen as influential supporters, offering a robust foundation for advancing initiatives. Research institutions, though low in influence, were considered to provide essential evidence to persuade stakeholders in Quadrants II and III, emphasising the broader benefits of integrating mobility solutions with green space enhancements.
In HLP 2, national and county governments, supported by academia and development partners, were considered as key high-influence advocates. However, participants saw potential opposition of saccos, developers, and media, highlighting tension between immediate economic interests and long-term planning goals. Civil society and informal businesses were seen to have limited influence, yet grassroots resistance cannot be ignored. This landscape suggests that inclusive stakeholder engagement is necessary to align economic incentives with spatial strategies, ensuring proximity-based planning reflects broader societal needs.
For addressing HLP 3, participants assumed entrenched resistance from influential political actors and community-based savings and development groups (CSDs). This highlights the need to overcome barriers tied to entrenched interests and operational inefficiencies. Opposition from low-influence actors was assumed to come from taxi operators and boda boda associations, reflecting concerns about job security and adaptability to changes in public transport systems. Participants considered that the support of development partners, local financial institutions, and CSOs provides a strong coalition to drive reform. Engaging Quadrant IV actors, such as resident associations and public institutions, could amplify demand for better public transport while offering a platform to integrate marginalised voices.
For addressing HLP 4, engineers, urban planners, and county governments were considered as actors to provide high-influence support, advocating for integrated urban design and sustainable transport solutions. However, certain policymakers and segments of the public transport sector were expected to resist, reflecting a gap in alignment between long-term planning and immediate operational priorities. Religious leaders and street vendors were seen as actors who would oppose these shifts, suggesting the need to frame policies in ways that align with cultural and socioeconomic realities. Support from learning institutions, civil society, and pedestrians was seen as an opportunity to build grassroots movements that challenge car-centric aspirations while advocating for liveable urban spaces.
In summary, the actor mapping across these HLPs illustrates the interplay between supporters and opponents at varying levels of influence. Successful interventions will depend on leveraging the support of high-influence advocates while engaging resistant stakeholders through dialogue, incentives, and targeted capacity-building efforts. Balancing short-term needs with long-term aspirations will be critical in creating inclusive, sustainable urban solutions for Kiambu.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
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← 1. A catchment area refers to the geographic area from which a city draws its resources, services, or population. This concept is often used in relation to specific facilities or services, such as schools, hospitals, or shopping centres, to define the area they serve.