The economy is projected to expand by 1.9% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. Consumption will be supported by the gradual improvement in the labour market, remittances, and the increasing share of the population vaccinated. Exports will continue to benefit from deep integration in global value chains and a gradual recovery in tourism. Planned public infrastructure projects will benefit investment. Inflation will stand at 6.9% in 2022 and edge down to 4.4% in 2023.
Mexico is recovering from a pandemic that had deep economic and social impacts. Informal workers, women and youth were particularly hit, exacerbating long-standing social challenges. Mexico’s solid macroeconomic policy framework safeguarded macroeconomic stability. But medium term growth prospects have weakened and growth over the past two decades has been low. Poverty rates and regional inequalities remain high. Informality, ﬁnancial exclusion or corruption have hindered productivity growth. Low female participation rates and weak investment since 2015 have also impacted medium-term growth prospects. Maintaining and strengthening Mexico’s solid macroeconomic policy framework is key for stability.
The pandemic highlighted how recent increases in poverty, inequalities and gender gaps, exacerbate a long-standing challenge to increase inclusiveness. Raising living standards will require boosting productivity growth by improving the business climate, including through fighting corruption and enhancing the skills across the population.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities