The Mexican economy is projected to expand by 5% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. Manufacturing exports will support growth benefiting from the strong recovery and policy support in the United States. Private consumption will strengthen gradually, aided by remittances and the rollout of vaccines. Inflation increased in the first half of 2021 due to a low-base effect and higher energy prices, but it is expected to edge down amid large spare capacity. Poverty, inequalities and gender gaps have widened again due to the pandemic.
The pandemic highlighted how recent increases in poverty, inequalities and gender gaps, exacerbate a long-standing challenge to increase inclusiveness. Raising living standards will require boosting productivity growth by improving the business climate, including through fighting corruption and enhancing the skills across the population.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities
Moderate growth is underpinned by a strong macroeconomic framework. Commitment to fiscal targets, sound debt management, a flexible exchange rate and an appropriate monetary policy stance have supported moderate growth in spite of several headwinds in recent years.