Publications & Documents

Predicting future economic trends appropriately is essential to economic policy making. Currently, the DSGE model approach is a benchmark economic forecasting technique widely employed. However, large external shocks, such as large-scale natural disasters and COVID-19, challenge current approaches to economic forecasting. Multiple approaches will be needed in this situation, including reduced-form model and indicator-based approaches. This paper discusses different forecasting approaches, by comparing forecasts during normal times and crisis periods. The Medium-term Projection Framework (MPF), used in the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India series, receives particular attention. The paper also examines challenges unique to developing Asia and large external shock periods. The measurement of potential output, difficulties in modelling the credit channel, and the incorporation of Big Data pose challenges regarding developing Asian countries, and large external shocks may force deviation from assumptions of traditional frameworks such as rational expectations. Finally, this paper points out that natural disasters will be a useful proxy for large shocks in Developing Asia.

A growing number of investors and corporates aim at coupling financial returns in developing countries with positive social, economic and environmental impacts. However, the way they measure those impacts can be at odds with actual managing practices, and important aspects such as transparency, the protection of human rights and local stakeholder consultation are not systematically taken into account. In order to help mend these gaps, the OECD-UNDP Impact Standards for Financing Sustainable Development (IS-FSD) provide a framework for donors, development finance institutions and their private sector partners to make financial decisions and manage projects in ways that generate a positive impact on sustainable development, and improves the transparency of development results. The Standards, approved by the OECD Development Assistance Committee in March 2021, constitute a best practice guide and self-assessment tool. They are built around four areas: Strategy, management approach, transparency and governance.

Au cours de la décennie écoulée, l’Irlande a realisé des progrès inégaux en matière de découplage entre les principales pressions environnementales et l’activité économique. Les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, la production de déchets et la pollution de l’eau par les éléments nutritifs ont augmenté avec la forte croissance économique entre le milieu des années 2010 et le début de la pandémie de COVID-19. Le peuplement dispersé place, de loin, le transport routier en tête des modes de transports. Les politiques en matière de climat, d'économie circulaire et de biodiversité ont pris un nouvel élan, avec des initiatives politiques ambitieuses et de grands plans d'investissement public. Il convient de les mettre en œuvre sans tarder pour atténuer les pressions grandissantes exercées par l'intensification des pratiques agricoles, le développement démographique, l'étalement urbain et le trafic routier. Il est essentiel d'encourager les entreprises et les ménages à agir. Il faut pour cela fournir des signaux de prix cohérents pour l'utilisation de l'énergie et des ressources naturelles et pour mieux gérer la demande de déplacements, tout en tenant compte de l'accessibilité financière, de l'impact sur l'emploi et des disparités régionales. Ce rapport est le troisième Examen environnemental de l’Irlande. Il évalue les progrès réalisés en matière de croissance verte et de développement durable, avec un chapitre spécial consacré à la mobilité et au transport de marchandises durables. Cette version abrégée contient le résumé, ainsi que l’évaluation et les recommandations officielles du rapport, qui reposent sur les trois chapitres consacrés aux évolutions et faits récents, à la gouvernance et à la croissance verte, ainsi que sur le chapitre qui examinent en détail la soutenabilité de la mobilité et du transport de marchandises. La version intégrale du rapport est disponible en anglais sur le site de l’OCDE.

For many private sector actors, especially micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), it remains challenging to understand how the impacts of climate change may influence their business profitability and continuity over time, and how they can manage climate risks. This working paper explores how governments and development co-operation providers can further engage with the private sector to address these challenges and strengthen its resilience to the negative impacts of climate change. The paper focuses on different roles of the private sector in strengthening climate resilience. It then examines how governments and development co-operation can foster such roles through enhancing domestic institutions and networks, policy frameworks, climate and weather data and information, and financing mechanisms. The proposed actions draw from the experiences of three case studies: Guatemala, the Philippines and Senegal.

Blockchain is mainstreaming, but the number of blockchain for development use-cases with proven success beyond the pilot stage remain relatively few. This paper outlines key blockchain concepts and implications in order to help policymakers reach realistic conclusions when considering its use. The paper surveys the broad landscape of blockchain for development to identify where the technology can optimise development impact and minimise harm. It subsequently critically examines four successful applications, including the World Food Programme’s Building Blocks, Oxfam’s UnBlocked Cash project, KfW’s TruBudget and Seso Global. As part of the on-going work co-ordinated by the OECD’s Blockchain Policy Centre, this paper asserts that post-COVID-19, Development Assistance Committee (DAC) donors and their development partners have a unique opportunity to shape blockchain’s implementation.

Pursuing sustainable development requires a whole-of-society effort, where the public sector engages with citizens, the private sector and civil society organisations. With this goal in mind, in 2014, the Nuevo León (Mexico) government created the Nuevo León’s Council for Strategic Planning to develop, inter alia, a 2015-2030 Strategic Plan. This review provides an assessment of Nuevo León’s monitoring and evaluation systems for this Strategic Plan, as essential tools for achieving long-term objectives and delivering results. The review also assesses the general role of the Council in providing policy advice. It draws on a wealth of comparative international experiences in promoting sustainable development through long-term planning, as well as in monitoring and evaluation of policy priorities through inclusive and participatory processes. The report’s recommendations seek to promote an evidence-informed approach to public governance, and, ultimately, help Nuevo León deliver better results for citizens, paving the way for inclusive and sustainable development.