The Problems and Prospects Faced by Pay-As-You‑Go Pension Systems

Without further reforms, pay-as-you-go pension systems throughout most of continental Europe face unsustainable financial imbalances as their population ages. Though this paper describes the Greek pension system, which will face especially severe financial strains, it sheds light on the pension problems of other continental European countries, as these countries’ systems share many common features. The main focus of the paper is on the factors of the Greek pay-as-you-go system which result in its future unsustainability. Exacerbating the deteriorating demographics, the system is characterised by very generous pensions relative to contributions for the pre-1993 generation of workers, as well as other incentives/provisions to retire early. To highlight these facets, the study provides simulations of the generosity of different categories of individual pensions under different scenarios as well as projections of aggregate pension expenditures and revenues. It concludes with options ...