OECD review of the Italian Parliamentary Budget Office

Executive summary

The Italian Parliamentary Budget Office (Ufficio Parlamentare di Bilancio, UPB) was established as a statutory body in 2014 and over the subsequent decade has become a key part of Italy’s institutional landscape. It is an independent body that promotes transparent public finances, assesses the government’s macro-fiscal forecasts and compliance with fiscal rules in addition to carrying out sectoral analysis and providing technical support to parliamentary committees.

Undertaken at the request of the UPB a decade after its establishment, this first external review assesses the UPB’s progress since its inception. The review looks at the challenges and future opportunities the UPB faces in carrying out its work and generating a positive impact. The Review is based on the OECD Principles for Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs); it also benchmarks the UPB against similar institutions across the OECD. It considers the UPB’s mandate, resources, independence, core outputs, and its overall impact.

In its early years, the UPB prioritised developing its solid reputation as an independent body with rigorous analysis and strong relationships with parliament. This has largely been a success: stakeholders hold its analytical capacity in very high regard. The UPB has since broadened the scope of its analysis to look more widely at key fiscal challenges, including long-term fiscal sustainability. This work has also been valued and viewed positively by a wide range of stakeholders. The UPB has strengthened its relationships with key stakeholders in the national context and is generally held in very high esteem by national and international peers.

As compared to OECD peers, the UPB has strong safeguards on independence, considerable capacity, and a well-developed communications apparatus as shown by the OECD’s 2024 Fiscal Advocacy Index. However, there is scope to improve the wider impact of its work. Moreover, the fiscal context in which the UPB operates presents challenges. Public debt in Italy is among the highest in the OECD as a share of GDP. The EU’s new fiscal framework, budgetary pressures related to ageing, and, more recently, defence together make up a difficult landscape. In this context, the UPB plays a critical role in empowering political and public understanding of the overall fiscal challenges facing Italian citizens and policymakers. It can help inform the debate around key budget choices, shedding light on the difficult trade-offs involved.

Key recommendations

1. Reinforce institutional arrangements

The UPB would benefit from addressing vulnerabilities in its governance and resourcing models. Currently, all Council members serve concurrent 6-year terms, creating a risk of operational disruption and a significant loss of institutional knowledge if terms expire simultaneously. Introducing staggered appointments would help ensure continuity and avoid unnecessary uncertainty. Another challenge is the UPB’s heavy reliance on seconded experts among its staff. Out of 32 total staff units, 26 are seconded or on leave from other public institutions, representing just over 80% of the workforce when Council members are excluded. Recruiting more permanent internal analytical staff would help further bolster institutional resilience and capacity. Finally, although the UPB benefits from a stable funding agreement, this is fixed in nominal terms and should be updated regularly to reflect wage and price developments, ensuring resources remain commensurate with its mandate.

2. Broaden analytical focus

The UPB’s current workload is heavily concentrated on in-depth analytical tasks. Much of its activity involves assessing and endorsing government forecasts, monitoring compliance with fiscal rules, and conducting sectoral analysis. While these functions are essential, this focus limits the institution’s ability to address Italy’s most pressing long-term fiscal risks and challenges. To broaden priorities and align more strongly with requirements of the EU’s new fiscal framework, the UPB should strengthen its work in these more strategic areas. This effort could be supported by streamlining internal processes, including assessing economic models and shared datasets with a view to consolidating or streamlining them while maintaining their reliability. In the short term, the UPB has scope to reallocate resources to these strategic areas while respecting the statutory cap. However, removing this cap remains a necessary long-term recommendation to ensure sustainable capacity.

3. Strengthen domestic visibility and impact

The UPB’s reports are highly regarded by technical experts for their depth and rigour. However, their length and technical language may limit accessibility for non-specialist audiences, reducing their broader impact on public debate. To address this, the UPB could complement its detailed reports with shorter, plain-language summaries, more accessible visual materials, and more proactive outreach. Systematically tracking media engagement and refreshing its digital identity would further enhance its ability to promote fiscal responsibility within the wider national conversation.

These recommendations are designed to ensure that the UPB continues to fulfil its mandate effectively and sustainably. If implemented, they would ensure that the institution’s capacity to enhance its important role in empowering political and public understanding around budgetary policy at a time when Italy’s fiscal situation is likely to be challenging.

The UPB can mature from its early years as an institution focused on EU fiscal rules and parliamentary support. It could fulfil the role of a stronger fiscal advocate – a prominent, independent body that champions long-run fiscal sustainability. This would form a central part of helping Italy’s public finances stay on a sustainable path, in line with the leading institutions of its kind across the OECD.