The UPB has established itself as a cornerstone of fiscal transparency in Italy. Its success demonstrates the value of independence and technical rigour in enabling effective oversight. Today, the UPB is widely recognised as a leading institution in Europe, providing credible analysis that supports parliamentary decision making.
However, this review highlights that resilience cannot be assumed. Italy’s fiscal landscape is becoming more complex, marked by high debt, an ageing population, and new EU rules. These developments amplify the need for a strong, independent UPB. They also expose structural vulnerabilities that Italy must address to safeguard the institution’s role.
Three priorities stand out. First, stability ensures credibility. Currently, all Council terms end simultaneously, creating uncertainty. Staggering these appointments would ensure continuity. Furthermore, the UPB relies too heavily on seconded staff and operates under a frozen budget. Recruiting permanent staff and establishing a secure funding model will build further institutional resilience.
Second, analytical capacity must match new demands. The reformed EU framework shifts the focus to longer-term planning. The UPB must broaden its workload to prioritise this focus, including assessing the impact of critical risks. Streamlining economic models without reducing their reliability could help free up some resources needed to broaden its workload while maintaining agility and quality.
Third, reputation depends on reach. Technical excellence alone is insufficient if the public cannot understand it. The UPB must move beyond dense reports for experts. Shorter documents, plain language, and a proactive media strategy will help the UPB engage a wider audience. This will empower the UPB to act as a strong fiscal advocate.
Looking ahead, the UPB’s role will become even more pivotal. Italy’s path to debt sustainability is narrow and challenges abound. The public needs an independent referee to scrutinise these commitments and explain difficult trade-offs. Doing so requires an institution that is agile, resilient, and proactive.
By implementing the recommendations in this Review, the UPB can cement its position as a guardian of the public finances in Italy. Legislative refinements and strategic shifts will enable the UPB to meet rising expectations without compromising independence or rigour. In doing so, the UPB will continue to exemplify OECD good practice, strengthening Parliament and ensuring Italians have a trusted source of impartial analysis.