OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035

4. Sugar

Abstract

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world sugar markets for the period 2026‑2035. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for sugar crops (sugar beet and sugarcane) and the sweetener complex, including raw sugar, white sugar, molasses and high fructose corn syrup. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world sugar markets over the next decade.

4.1. Projection highlights

Global sugar demand is projected to strengthen mainly in South and Southeastern Asia and Africa over the next decade, driven by population growth, rapid urbanisation and rising disposable incomes. Combined, these regions will account for virtually all of the world’s consumption growth over the next decade. Demand growth in Africa and Asia is expected to be primarily driven by population expansion, with per capita sugar consumption projected to rise by 4% and 13%, respectively, although levels are projected to remain well below the level in high-income countries.

Across North America, Europe and parts of Latin America, consumption is anticipated to decline further. The combination of shrinking populations and shifting consumer preferences, supported by health-conscious policies such as sugar taxes and labelling laws, will continue to drive widespread product reformulation and curb consumption growth. In East Asia, demand will remain low in Japan due to cultural preferences, while in People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), minimal growth is anticipated as government targets and urban health trends will shift consumption patterns.

On the supply side, Brazil and India will continue to dominate the global sugar market. Brazil is expected to further strengthen its leading position through operational efficiencies and expanded capacity while India is anticipated to increase output through agronomic improvements and higher sucrose recovery rates. Together, these two countries are expected to account for 42% of global sugar output, heavily impacting global price dynamics over the coming decade.

Sugarcane will maintain its dominance, providing over 85% of total sugar crop output, while the sugar beet sector faces a structural squeeze due to regulatory and environmental pressures, in Europe. Trends in sugar crop-based ethanol output in the two main producers, Brazil and India, will remain a dominant factor influencing global sugar supply.

The export market is remaining concentrated, with Brazil maintaining a dominant share (55% in 2035), followed by Thailand. In contrast, the import market remains highly diversified, with the most significant demand growth located in emerging economies across Africa and Asia, where domestic production remains limited. Raw sugar continues to account for about 60% of global sugar trade.

Sugar markets will remain subject to many uncertainties, mainly future demand dynamics in Asia and Africa and extreme weather-driven production risks. While a shift toward processed foods and confectionery products is anticipated, heightened health awareness together with stricter health regulations and sugar consumption taxes would alter demand projections. While a productivity recovery is anticipated in the baseline, it remains unclear if major producers can overcome recent extreme weather-driven yield declines. In addition, flexibility between sugar and ethanol production is a key uncertainty of the sugar sector, particularly in Brazil and India.

4.2. Current market trends

International sugar markets are likely to shift toward a production surplus in the 2025/26 (October/September) season, largely reflecting expectations of higher global output and only modest growth in world consumption.

Global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to recover from the reduced level recorded in 2024/25. The increase will mainly be driven by a rebound in India following the weather-related decline in the previous season. Similarly, in Thailand, improved sugar recovery rates are expected to support higher production. Greater output is also anticipated in China, reflecting higher production of sugarcane and sugar beet. In Brazil, production is expected to remain broadly in line with the previous season’s level. The final outcome will, however, depend on the progress of the harvest in key southern growing regions, which begins in April, and on the share of sugarcane allocated to sugar rather than ethanol production. These gains are likely to more than offset the lower output anticipated in the European Union due to reduced sugar beet plantings despite generally good yields.

World sugar consumption is expected to increase slightly in 2025/26 compared with the previous season, amid prospects for relatively steady global economic growth in 2026 and lower sugar prices. The expansion in consumption is expected to be largely supported by population‑driven demand growth in Africa, while demand developments in Asia are expected to be underpinned by continued population growth and the food and beverage industry.

World sugar trade in 2025/26 is predicted to remain broadly in line with the previous year’s level. On the export side, shipments from Brazil are projected to remain close to the level recorded in the previous season, while export availabilities from Thailand are anticipated to increase. By contrast, exports from the European Union are expected to be lower. On the demand side, imports by Indonesia are anticipated to increase, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest importer together with China, while purchases by the United States are projected to decline significantly, reflecting increased domestic sugar production.

International prices of sugar have generally declined since the start of the 2025/26 season in October, reaching in February 2026 their lowest level since October 2020. The decline has been driven mainly by expectations of ample global sugar supplies in the current season.

4.3.  Market projections

4.3.1. Consumption

Over the next ten years, global sugar consumption is projected to expand by 1% p.a. to reach 199 million tonnes (Mt) by 2035, largely driven by population growth. Global average per capita consumption is projected to increase only marginally, rising by about 2% compared with the base period (October 2023-September 2026). This global average masks significant regional differences, with consumption growth concentrated in Asia and Africa, while demand in other regions is expected to stagnate or decline.

Sugar, a fibre-free carbohydrate, is a common ingredient in numerous food and beverage products and represents a key source of energy in the human diet. However, high levels of sugar consumption are associated with health concerns. he World Health Organization therefore recommends that intake of free sugars (i.e. sugar added to foods during production or cooking as well as sugars present in honey, syrups and fruit juices) be limited to less than 10% of total daily energy intake. Over the next decade, per capita caloric sweetener consumption is expected to grow mainly in Asia. The largest increase will take place in the highly populated regions of South and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, consumption in the Americas, Oceania and Europe is anticipated to stagnate or fall due to health concerns, new consumption taxes and product reformulations. These trends will be accompanied by consumption gaps in every region. (Figure 4.1). In sub-Saharan Africa, per capita consumption of sugar is projected to grow steadily but still remain significantly below more affluent regions.

Consumption growth is mainly concentrated in Asia and Africa

With the projected rapid growth in population and income in Asia, and in population in Africa, the two regions are expected to account for virtually all of the increase in global demand compared to the reference period (October 2023-September 2025), at 76% and 28% of the world total growth, respectively, more than compensating for stagnant or declining demand in other regions. In both regions, per capita consumption is anticipated to remain significantly below the level in high-income countries by 2035.

In Asia, except for China, population growth, although slower than in the past decade, and income growth associated with stronger demand for processed food and beverage products are expected to sustain the increase over the next decade. India is expected to contribute the most to the overall increase in sugar consumption, followed by Indonesia and Pakistan then China and Viet Nam. Least developed countries in Asia will increase their per capita food consumption; however, they are projected to reach only 12 kg by 2035, remaining significantly below the regional average of 16 kg per annum. In China, the Food and Nutrition Development Guideline (2025-2030) officially limits added sugar to 25 g per day (9.1 kg/year) to curb rising consumption. To meet Healthy China 2030 rules, the food industry is lowering sugar in its recipes, specifically targeting urban youth who are the largest consumers. While new supermarkets are bringing more sugary products to rural areas, the national average is expected to stay steady (8.2 kg/capita) and remain lower than in neighbouring countries.

Across Africa, least developed sub-Saharan countries are foreseen to record only low growth in per capita consumption, reaching 9 kg in 2035, as income growth is not sufficient to drive significant dietary shifts toward higher consumption of high-value food items. In North Africa, consumption growth is projected to remain modest overall, varying across countries. Nevertheless, per capita consumption levels are expected to remain comparatively high, ranging from about 25 kg per year in the region’s least developed countries to around 40 kg in other countries. In South Africa, the declining trend in per capita sugar consumption recorded in recent years – amid government measures to discourage its use, including the Sugar-Sweetened Beverage taxation and public health campaigns – is expected to persist over the next decade; with many food manufacturers reformulating their products to reduce sugar content.

Compared to other regions, Latin America currently exhibits the highest levels of caloric sweetener consumption. This sustained intake over the past 15 years has raised significant public health concerns, particularly regarding rising rates of obesity and chronic diseases. In response, a growing coalition of countries – including Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru – has adopted excise taxes on sugar‑sweetened beverages, along with front‑of‑package warning labels, to curb soft drink consumption. Brazil has recently joined this trend by modifying its tax credit system to effectively increase the price of sugary concentrates. Argentina, meanwhile, has placed a particular emphasis on consumer transparency through the implementation of mandatory front‑of‑package warning labels. the region is projected to see a steady absolute decline in per capita sugar consumption through 2035 led by Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Peru.

Europe is expected to remain the region with the highest per capita sugar consumption, despite a projected decline over the outlook period. For more than a decade, European countries have accelerated measures to curb excessive sugar consumption, pressuring the food industry to reformulate product recipes while guiding consumers toward healthier dietary choices. Over the next decade, as consumers become more diet conscious, the region will experience the biggest decline in consumption among the regions covered in this Outlook, reflecting a gradual reduction in the consumption of sugar-rich products. Nevertheless, average sugar consumption in Europe is expected to remain higher than in other regions; the decline is anticipated to be more pronounced in the European Union, a pattern also anticipated in the United Kingdom and Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”). Conversely, per capita sugar consumption is expected to moderately increase in Ukraine and some other European countries, driven by economic recovery.

Minimal changes are expected in Japan, except for the decrease in volume due to population decline. Per capita consumption levels are projected to decline in high sugar‑consuming countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada. In the United States, the decline will be less visible because manufacturers continue to use high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in confectionery and processed goods.

The high fructose corn syrup market will stabilise

HFCS, the other caloric sweetener, is used primarily in beverages as a substitute for sugar. Unlike sugar, it is a liquid product and therefore less easily traded. Global consumption will remain the domain of a limited group of countries, with no major changes. The largest producer, the United States, will remain the main consumer but the debate surrounding whether HFCS poses a greater potential health risk than sugar is expected to continue, and the downward trend that started in the mid-2000s is expected to continue; by 2035, HFCS is foreseen to represent 33% of the caloric sweetener consumption compared to 35% during the base period. HFCS production in the United States is projected to slightly decline to 6.4 Mt. Mexico is the third-largest consumer and government efforts to reduce caloric sweetener consumption are expected to continue over the next ten years, leading to lower consumption of HFCS sweetened soft drinks.

In China, the world’s second-largest producer and consumer of HFCS, consumption will stay steady and low over the next decade, remaining far behind Japan and Korea (6 kg/capita) while still exceeding the European Union, where it remains uncompetitive at just 2.5 kg/capita.

4.3.2. Production

Sugar production is a capital-intensive sector, which requires substantial input costs, including energy for sugar beet and fertilisers in cane and beet to increase yield and sugar content. Remunerative domestic prices recorded in the early 2020s have encouraged investments in the sector and are expected to sustain further growth and development in the coming decade. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 12% over the Outlook period.

Expanded processing capacity underpins production growth

Global sugar production is expected to grow from 181 Mt during the base period to 203 Mt by 2035, 60% of the growth will come from Asia and 30% from Latin America (Figure 4.2).

Asia will remain the leading sugar-producing region. India, Thailand, Pakistan and China are expected to provide the largest shares of the region’s total sugar supply, increasing their sugar production, respectively, by 6.2 Mt, 2.5 Mt, 1.8 Mt and 1.2 Mt by 2035 compared to the base period. In India, sugar production is expected to grow at a slightly higher growth rate than in the past decade. In Thailand, Pakistan and China, governments are pursuing policy initiatives relevant to the sugar sector, including Thailand’s Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) model within a broader sustainability framework, Pakistan’s planned deregulation to enhance efficiency and capacity utilisation, and China’s subsidies for industrial upgrading.

Latin America is the second-largest sugar-producing region, with Brazil the world’s leading supplier. Brazil’s sugar production is anticipated to reach 50.2 Mt by 2035, capturing approximately 34% global market share. This growth is underpinned by recent investments in processing and crystallisation capacity, alongside an expanding corn‑based ethanol sector. By fulfilling domestic fuel mandates, corn ethanol will complement sugarcane-based biofuel and effectively free up feedstock for increased sugar production.

Africa is also expected to contribute to the global sugar supply, with its share of production increasing mainly thanks to sub-Saharan countries, along with a rising contribution from Egypt, the continent’s largest sugar producer. Government support measures and foreign investments are expected to contribute to increased sugar production. The availability of agro-ecologically suitable zones for sugarcane cultivation in sub-Saharan Africa, together with the potential for sugar beet area expansion in Egypt and scope for improvements in production efficiency.

Production in OECD Member countries is foreseen to continue to lose market shares. In 2035, the region will supply 20% of global production, compared to 22% in the base period. Although it will retain its position as the main producer of this regional market in 2035 (36%), the European Union’s sugar production is expected to decline. Higher supply is foreseen in Mexico, where strategic investments in mechanisation and the adoption of high-sucrose cane varieties are expected to drive a production recovery (+0.9 Mt). In the Republic of Türkiye, sugar beet production growth (+0.6 Mt) is supported by government measures.

Yield improvements drive sugar production growth

Growth in global sugar production over the Outlook period is expected to be increasingly underpinned by higher yields rather than area expansion in the main sugarcane‑producing countries. In particular, India, Brazil and Thailand are expected to see production gains reflecting improvements in varieties, agricultural management practices and higher sugar recovery rates.

Brazil will remain the world’s leading sugarcane producer, but its growth strategy has shifted from land expansion to vertical yield optimisation. Driven by recent droughts, the sector is investing heavily in irrigation, biological pest controls and drought-resistant “super cane” varieties. With land availability constrained by competition from more profitable crops like soybeans and maize, production gains are expected to rely on better yields.

In India, the growth in sugarcane production is projected to stem mostly from higher crop yields, with only limited expansion in acreage. Government support measures play a crucial role in sustaining sugarcane production. These measures include setting fair and remunerative prices to ensure farmers receive adequate compensation and support for research and development of improved sugarcane varieties. Additionally, the government collaborates closely with industry organisations, such as the Indian Sugar Mills Association, on issues affecting the development of the sugar sector. Similarly, sugarcane production in Thailand over the next decade is also expected to come mainly from higher yields, supported by government initiatives aimed at improving cultivation practices and sustainability, within broader policy frameworks such as the Bio-Circular-Green model. The cultivated area is anticipated to remain relatively stable, sustained by attractive farm‑gate prices that incentivise farmers to continue sugarcane farming. In China, the government continues to drive sugarcane production by subsidising “virus-free” and high-sucrose seeds to boost yields, while using floor prices and high import tariffs – including the 2025 hikes on sugar syrups and sugar-containing premixes – to protect farmers. Despite these supports, growth through 2035 will remain moderate, as rising costs and competition for land from more profitable crops like citrus fruit limit further expansion.

Prospects are less robust for sugar beet. Processing this crop requires more energy and fertilisers to maximise yield and sugar content than the production of sugar from sugarcane and this may negatively impact industrial profit margins. Increases in beet production are anticipated mainly in Egypt, Türkiye, the United States and China, resulting in an overall increase of 1.3 Mt.

In Egypt, remunerative procurement prices, along with efforts to adopt improved seed varieties and expand sugar beet processing capacities are expected to boost sugar beet production. Notably, the Canal Sugar Factory, recognised as the world’s largest beet sugar production facility, began operations in 2021 with an annual output capacity of 900 000 tonnes. These developments are projected to increase sugar beet production by 4.8 Mt compared to the base period.

In the United States and China, higher yields will help the crop keep market shares, where both sugar crops are cultivated. Sugar beet production will account for 49% and 11% respectively, of the respective total national sugar crops.

In Europe, not much change is expected in Ukraine and Russia over the next decade. In the European Union, high input costs compared to other crops and stricter environmental legislation of plant protection products will encourage producers to switch to more profitable crops, with financially vulnerable producers likely to be among the first affected. In Türkiye, the world’s fourth-largest producer of sugar beet after the European Union, Russia and the United States, sustained yield increases over the past decade driven by improved seed quality and modernised production practices are expected to support further growth in sugar production over the next decade.

Biofuel expansion intensifies competition for sugarcane

During the last decade, 81% of world sugar crops were used to produce sugar, but this share is expected to decline slightly to 80% by 2035. In the major sugarcane-producing countries, support for biofuel production will intensify competition between the main uses of sugarcane, sugar or ethanol, especially since factories often have the built-in option to switch from one to the other (Figure 4.3). In Brazil, the crop will continue to be used for sugar and ethanol, but the sugar share will slightly increase throughout the Outlook period, supported by the maturation of second-generation biofuels derived from non-food materials like bagasse and straw. In India, a growing share is expected to be allocated to ethanol over the Outlook period. In 2035, Brazil and India are expected to remain the main producers, with respectively 34% and 27% of the world’s sugarcane, 25% and 18% of global sugar production, and 72% and 23% of global sugarcane-based ethanol production. Very little ethanol is produced directly from sugarcane in Thailand because molasses or cassava are mainly used. In contrast, producers in Argentina are ambitiously expanding the direct use of sugarcane juice for ethanol to take advantage of increasing domestic blending mandates.

4.3.3. Trade

Sugar trade to remain robust over the Outlook period

Sugar will remain a highly traded product. Most of the trade will continue to be made up of raw sugar, and its share is expected to rise slightly, from 62% in the base period to 63% by 2035. Raw sugar is usually shipped in bulk, like other basic commodities such as cereals or soybeans, and most of these shipments will continue to go to refineries for further processing (Figure 4.4). Intended for human consumption, refined sugar trade is more costly as it requires greater protection against moisture and contamination during handling and transport. As a result, refined sugar trade often tends to be more regional than raw sugar, though significant long‑distance flows still occur.

During the last decade, imports supplied 36% of global sugar consumption. This share is expected to decline marginally by 2035 to 34%, reflecting strong demand but slightly improved domestic supply in some regions.

Asia and Africa are remaining the major importing regions, representing respectively 58% and 28% of global imports. Across Africa, higher domestic sugar production is expected to reduce the region’s dependence on sugar imports, with the share of imports in consumption declining from 72% in the base period to a projected 69% in 2035. At the same time, moderate consumption growth in least developed sub-Saharan countries is expected to increase the share of imported white sugar for direct consumption. No significant changes are expected in Asia in terms of trade; imports of raw sugar will continue to increase, mainly driven by the key buyers – Indonesia and China – although China (included in the developed and East Asia aggregate) will reduce its imports by about 2 Mt. In Indonesia, a sustained increase in consumption is expected to be covered mainly by imports, which are projected to grow by 2.6% p.a. over the Outlook period.

In Latin America, sugar imports are anticipated to decline, largely due to Mexico’s introduction of exceptionally high sugar import tariffs in November 2025, which are expected to curb imports and reduce the region’s aggregate import needs. Elsewhere, little change is foreseen. In the United States, a traditionally sugar‑deficit country, imports are expected to remain constrained.

On the export side, sugar markets are projected to remain highly concentrated, and thus reliant on market developments in a small number of countries. By 2035, the two traditional key exporters are anticipated to account for two-thirds of the market: Brazil (72% of raw, 28% of white) and Thailand (10% of raw, 20% of white). Brazil will by far remain the world’s leading global supplier of raw sugar, and, together with Thailand, one of the main suppliers of white sugar. Australia is expected to follow, supplying about 4.5% of the world sugar market in 2035, mainly in raw form. White sugar exports are more geographically diversified than raw sugar exports, as the white‑sugar premium provides higher returns, encouraging some countries – particularly in the Middle East – to use their refining capacity to re‑export white sugar.

Brazil serves distant export destinations and continues to face logistical bottlenecks at its ports at the beginning of the Outlook period. Given the country’s strong profitability on international markets and the current tightness in global sugar supplies, investments in storage facilities, port capacity and vessel infrastructure are expected to continue. The lack of structural white‑sugar supplies from Brazil – where exporters prioritise raw shipments through bulk terminals due to lower hygiene requirements – is projected to persist through 2035. Over the Outlook period, Brazilian sugar exports are anticipated to increase by 4.6 Mt, reaching 40 Mt in 2035, with white‑sugar shipments rising from 14% during the base period to 19%.

Thailand’s share of sugar exports is expected to increase from 11% with a volume of 7 Mt in the base period to 13% and reach 9.6 Mt by 2035. In India, sugar exports are projected to be cut almost in half, reflecting the government’s strategy of meeting domestic needs while diverting more sugarcane toward the ethanol‑blending programme.

4.3.4. Prices

Prices will likely recover in the next few years then drop in real terms

At the start of the Outlook, prices are low, prompting farmers to begin shifting toward more profitable crops. Although the market is expected to tighten significantly in 2026, international sugar prices are likely to remain under pressure as stock releases in India and Thailand offset shrinking production. Over the rest of the Outlook period, real prices are projected to ease slightly, supported by continued productivity gains boosting export availabilities. However, this downward pressure will be partially offset by assumed stable real international crude oil prices following current increases which, combined with improvements in refining efficiency, are expected to incentivise the use of sugar crops for ethanol production, thereby providing some support to sugar prices (Figure 4.5).

The white sugar premium (the price difference between white and raw sugar) is expected to remain stable over the next few years before rising slightly in real terms over the Outlook period, reflecting the declining share of white sugar in total export availabilities.

4.4. Risks and uncertainties

This Outlook yield projections assume normal weather conditions, with no climatic shocks, while accounting for a trend toward drier, or wetter, conditions, depending on area. Rising sugar yields supported by improved cane and beet varieties, better pest and disease control, more efficient irrigation or drainage systems, sound harvest practices, and improvements in sugar recovery rates, are anticipated. Adverse weather or slower yield growth could greatly impact output and prices, particularly due to the high concentration of sugar exporters and their geographical concentration in two main regions: Brazil and monsoon Asia. Similarly, any deviation of the white sugar premium from the assumed increase in this Outlook could also affect country decisions on refining capacity and delivery strategies. Furthermore, national policy shifts, input costs and the relative profitability of alternative crops remain key factors influencing growers’ planting decisions. In addition, pest pressure could increase if extreme weather events intensify or if changes in plant protection practices reduce the effectiveness of pest control.

Growth in sugar consumption in Asia and Africa is expected to drive continued expansion in global demand. However, the sector is increasingly adapting to rising health awareness and a more health‑oriented policy environment, prompting companies to innovate and reformulate their product portfolios. Consumption levels may diverge from current projections, given the uncertainty surrounding strong demand growth in emerging economies against the persistent downward trend in sugar use observed in many developed countries.

Sugar markets will remain potentially vulnerable to any disruptions in Brazil due to the extreme concentration of raw sugar supply, with the country accounting for 46% of global exports. This concentration is particularly problematic for large refineries in the Middle East and North Africa, which rely heavily on imported raw sugar, as well as for large importing markets such as China and Indonesia. This makes international trade highly sensitive to logistical bottlenecks at Brazilian ports, disruptions to trade routes, rising freight costs, yield shocks or shifts in Brazil’s ethanol‑to‑sugar production ratio. In addition, heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly those affecting global shipping lanes, energy markets or trade flows, could further amplify these vulnerabilities and lead to additional supply chain disruptions.

If the European Commission were to include sugar in the EU Deforestation Regulation, large producers may need to ensure traceability across their production systems in order to preserve access to the European market. Some actors are already preparing for this possibility, with several large firms beginning to adopt satellite‑based monitoring tools and digital platforms such as the Bonsucro ClimateCane Tracker. Smaller exporters in regions classified as “low risk”, particularly emerging producers in Africa and Central America, could gain competitiveness and reshape trade patterns over the coming decade. This could exert upward pressure on sugar prices relative to current baseline projections if compliance requirements increase costs or limit supply from major exporters.

Given that 24% of global sugar crops are foreseen to be used for ethanol production in 2035 compared to 18% in the base period, including 52% of the domestic crop in Brazil, the relative price movements between crude oil and sugar remain a major source of uncertainty as they affect the competitiveness and profitability of sugar production relative to sugar crop-based ethanol production. In Brazil, when ethanol prices fall below 70% of the gasoline prices, ethanol becomes the more economical fuel choice for consumers. India has achieved the 20% ethanol blending target (E20) in the current ethanol supply year, running from November to October, five years ahead of the original 2030 target; this progress has been supported by sustained policy reforms and rapidly expanding distillation capacity, allowing greater flexibility in allocating sugarcane-derived feedstocks between sugar and ethanol production. The increase in use of sugarcane-derived feedstocks for ethanol production over the past decade highlights the evolving relationship between sugar production and ethanol supply, although recent developments also point to a growing role for alternative feedstocks. The extent to which sugarcane-derived feedstocks are diverted to ethanol production could influence the exportable availability of sugar and thereby affect global sugar market balances over the outlook period.