OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035

2. Cereals

Abstract

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world cereal markets for the period 2026‑2035. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for wheat, rice, maize and other coarse grains. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world cereal markets over the next decade.

2.1. Projection highlights

Global cereal consumption is projected to expand, driven by a steady increase in food demand and on the account of a slower expansion in feed and biofuels uses. Food use grows broadly in line with population – particularly in Africa and Asia – with modest increases in per capita consumption, and is projected to account for 40% of total use by 2035. Feed use expands alongside livestock production, especially in middle-income countries, and is projected to represent 34% of total use by 2035. Wheat and rice remain the main cereals for food consumption, whereas maize and other coarse grains account for the bulk of feed use.

Global cereal production is projected to increase steadily, reaching a record 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035. Growth is mainly the result of yield improvements, while harvested areas expand only marginally. Average cereal yields are expected to rise, reflecting technological progress and improved production practices.

International trade is projected to expand, with the share of production traded globally rising from 17% at present to 18% by 2035. Import demand increases in regions where domestic production growth does not keep pace with consumption, particularly in least developed countries. Most countries in Africa and parts of Asia are expected to remain or become net cereal importers, as population and income growth outstrip domestic supply potential. The Americas and parts of Europe are projected to remain key net exporters of wheat, maize and other coarse grains, while Asian countries continue to dominate global rice exports.

In real terms, international cereal prices are projected to decline slightly over the medium term, as productivity gains and efficiency improvements offset upward cost pressures.

Cereal market projections remain subject to uncertainty over the coming decade. Weather variability, evolving policy frameworks, geopolitical tensions affecting energy and input markets, and changes in demand growth in low- and middle-income countries could alter consumption and production patterns, trade flows and price developments. In addition, domestic food price movements may diverge from international commodity price trends as processing, transport and other local cost components play an important role in shaping consumer prices.

2.2. Current market trends

Monthly maize prices remained relatively stable throughout 2025, ranging between USD 183 per tonne (t) and USD 221/t (US No. 2, yellow, FOB Gulf). Prices began to increase gradually from August 2025, reaching USD 211/t in February 2026, although they remained below year-on-year. This environment reflected comfortable global supply conditions following strong harvests and exports in major producing countries, particularly in the Americas.

Monthly wheat prices were more stable in 2025 than in recent years, ranging from USD 230/t to USD 264/t (US No. 2, HRW, FOB Gulf). Prices generally declined during the second half of 2025 and remained below year-on-year in February 2026. Ample export supplies from major producers, particularly in the Black Sea region, together with favourable harvest outcomes in several exporting countries, contributed to easing price pressures in global markets.

Monthly barley prices remained broadly stable throughout 2025 but increased from November onward due to strong demand for feed grains and tighter supply conditions in some exporting countries. As a result, prices reached USD 245/t (feed, FOB Rouen) in February 2026, above their year-earlier level.

Monthly rice prices followed a different trajectory. Having remained elevated during 2024, they declined steadily throughout 2025 reaching a nine-year monthly low in October. The decline was largely driven by the removal of export restrictions in India, which increased exportable supplies on global markets. Prices have begun to recover, reaching USD 392/t (FAO All Rice Price Index normalised to India 5%) in February 2026, as global demand remains robust, particularly in African markets.

2.3. Market projections

2.3.1. Consumption

Asian countries will lead consumption growth

Global cereal consumption is projected to continue expanding over the coming decade driven by population growth, rising per-capita food demand, and increasing feed demand for livestock production. Food use will remain the dominant component of cereal demand, followed by feed use. By 2035, 40% of cereals are expected to be consumed directly as food, while about 34% will be used for animal feed, both increasing slightly from current levels. Biofuels and other industrial uses will account for the remaining quarter. These shares vary across cereal types: wheat and rice are primarily consumed as food, whereas maize and other coarse grains are mainly used as feed (Figure 2.1).

Between 49% and 64% of global cereal consumption is projected to occur in the five largest consuming countries for each commodity by 2035 (Figure 2.2), indicating a lower degree of concentration than for production. Total cereal use is projected to increase by 12% from the base period level to reach 3.25 billion tonnes (bln t) by 2035, with higher food and feed uses accounting for most of the growth. Asian countries are expected to account for more than half of the increase in global consumption. Food consumption is projected to grow broadly in line with population, while feed use growth will be driven by the expansion and intensification of livestock production.

Global wheat consumption is projected to increase by about 10% by 2035 relative to the base period. Food use will continue to dominate wheat consumption, accounting for about two-thirds of total use and increasing by around 59 million tonnes (Mt) globally. Growth in wheat consumption is expected to be somewhat slower than in the previous decade, reflecting slower growth in feed use. India and Pakistan together are expected to account for around one-third of the consumption increase, reflecting population and per-capita demand growth.

In Asia, wheat remains a staple food for a large share of the population and is widely used in processed food products. In North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, consumption is expanding beyond traditional consumers, driven by urbanisation, rising demand for processed foods and the competitive pricing of imported wheat relative to domestically produced staples. As a result, demand for milling-quality wheat used in baking and food processing is increasing, with supplies coming mainly from exporters in North America, Australia and the European Union. Growth in food use is expected to be led by countries in South Asia, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, the use of wheat for ethanol production is projected to decline by about 15% relative to the base period.

Rice food consumption is expected to continue to grow over the projection period, although at a slower pace than in the previous decade. Growth is driven mainly by Asia and Africa and largely reflects population increases. On a per capita basis, small decreases in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected, while moderate increases in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions are foreseen (Table 2.1).

Table 2.1. Rice per capita food consumption by region

	kg/person/year		Growth rate (% p.a.)
	2023‑2025 average	2035
Africa	26.0	29.6	1.0
Asia	72.2	72.1	-0.1
Europe	6.8	7.0	0.3
Latin America and Caribbean	25.4	25.2	-0.2
North America	11.5	11.6	0.5
Oceania	19.0	20.4	0.6
World	50.7	50.8	-0.1

Notes: The last column displays the least-squares average annual growth rate, 2026‑2035 (see the Glossary).

Maize consumption remains driven by feed demand, which is projected to increase more slowly than in the previous decade. Expanding livestock production – particularly in Asia – is expected to support increasing demand for feed grains. Feed use is projected to account for roughly half of total maize consumption by 2035, as in the base period, reaching 747 Mt (+103 Mt from the base period).

People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) will remain one of the largest consumers of maize, although expansion in use is expected to moderate. The rebuilding of pig herds after the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak has supported strong feed demand in recent years, but future expansion in the livestock sector is projected to be more gradual. In addition, improvements in feed efficiency and greater use of alternative feed ingredients – supported by government policies aimed at strengthening domestic feed self-sufficiency – are expected to further limit increases in maize use.

Food consumption of maize will continue to expand mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, where white maize remains a key staple crop, providing a significant share of daily caloric intake and thus remaining central to food security. Population growth in the region is expected to support continued increases in food use, broadly in line with the strong growth observed over the previous decade.

Globally, maize use for biofuel production is projected to increase more slowly than in the past decade, reflecting the maturity of ethanol markets in several major producing countries and slower growth in gasoline consumption in some regions. Brazil and India are expected to account for most of the increase in maize-based ethanol production over the projection period.

Consumption of other coarse grains – including barley, sorghum, rye, oats and millets – is projected to grow slightly faster than in the previous decade. Demand increases are expected to be concentrated in Africa, where these cereals are mainly used for food, and in Asia, where they are primarily used for feed. In high-income countries, consumption remains broadly stable. As a result, the share of other coarse grains used for food is projected to rise from about 27% in the base period to 31% by 2035, while the share used for feed declines from around 56% to 52%. In sub-Saharan Africa, millets remain an important staple crop due to its resilience to harsh climatic conditions and its adaptability to diverse agroecological environments. The brewing industry plays a significant role in the use of barley for human consumption, particularly in countries such as China, the United States, Brazil, Mexico and the European Union.

Cereals tend to have relatively low levels of food loss and waste compared to more perishable foods. Nevertheless, losses still occur along the supply chain, particularly during transport, storage and processing, while additional waste arises at the distribution and household levels. Total food loss and waste is assumed to remain broadly stable at current levels, around 14‑15% of global cereal production, highlighting the importance of continued efforts to reduce losses through improved infrastructure, technological innovation and consumer awareness.

2.3.2. Production

Yield improvements sustain production growth

Global cereal production over the coming decade is expected to rely increasingly on productivity gains rather than expansion of cultivated land. Over the past decade, the global harvested area of cereals expanded by around 0.5% per annum (p.a.). In the coming decade, this growth is projected to slow markedly to about 0.1% p.a., adding around 15 million hectares (ha) to the base period level and bringing global harvested area to roughly 763 million ha by 2035. Latin America and the Caribbean together with Asia are expected to account for about 60% of this increase. In both regions, rising cropping intensity – particularly through double cropping – supports expansion, while some countries in Latin America bring additional land into cultivation and parts of Asia benefit from improvements in irrigation and land management. In Asia, India is projected to account for about one-third of the global increase in harvested area, mainly for wheat and rice. Globally, wheat and maize areas are expected to expand by about 2% and 4%, respectively, relative to the base period, while rice and other coarse grains area remaining broadly stable. Urbanisation and environmental policies are expected to limit further expansion of agricultural land, implying that future production growth will depend primarily on improvements in yields.

Global average yields are projected to grow by around 0.9% p.a. in the next decade, slightly faster than in the previous decade, reaching 4.2 t/ha by 2035. Continued advances in crop genetics, improved farm management practices and more efficient input use are expected to support these productivity gains. Average yields are projected to reach about 3.9 t/ha for wheat, 6.5 t/ha for maize, 3.5 t/ha for rice and 2.3 t/ha for other coarse grains by 2035 (Figure 2.3).

Despite these improvements, significant regional disparities in productivity are expected to persist due to natural conditions as well as differences in production intensity and technology. In high-yielding regions, yield growth is slowing as marginal gains from existing technologies diminish and environmental constraints become more binding. In lower-yielding regions, progress is more uneven. Some countries benefit from rapid modernisation and increased investment in agricultural technology while others face structural constraints such as limited infrastructure, weak input markets and vulnerability to extreme weather conditions. As a result, limited convergence in yields between regions is expected over the projection period. Improving access to technologies, inputs, financing and knowledge will thus remain critical for equitable productivity gains and strengthening global food security.

Total cereal production is projected to reach 3.24 bln t in 2035. Reflecting differences in productivity growth and resource availability, cereal production in low- and lower middle-income countries is projected to expand twice as fast as in upper middle- and high-income countries. This faster growth reflects lower initial yield levels, which allow greater potential for catch-up, and increasing investment in agricultural development aimed at strengthening domestic food supplies. In higher income countries, production growth is expected to be more moderate because productivity levels are already high and opportunities for land expansion limited.

Between 51% and 72% of global cereal production is projected to occur in the five largest producing countries for each commodity by 2035, indicating a higher degree of concentration than observed for consumption (Figure 2.4). This concentration reflects uneven access to natural resources and variations in technological development, investment and policy support across countries. Regionally, Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to experience relatively strong production growth, supported by technological progress, improved infrastructure and expanding cropping systems. In Africa, cereal production is also expected to increase strongly, reflecting the commercialisation of agriculture which results in yield improvements alongside continued area expansion supported by stabilising investment incentives. In North America, production growth will mainly be driven by yield gains, as harvested area expands only modestly. In Europe, sustainability policies and land constraints are expected to keep harvested area broadly stable, with moderate yield improvements supporting production growth. Oceania and Asia are projected to see more moderate increases in production over the coming decade.

Global wheat production is projected to increase by 74 Mt from current levels to reach 877 Mt by 2035. India, one of the world’s largest wheat producers, is projected to contribute a significant share of the global increase (29%), owing to both yield improvements and policies supporting modest expansion of harvested area. Production increases are also expected in Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”), Argentina and Pakistan, together accounting for another 40% of the global expansion. By 2035, China, India and the European Union are projected to produce roughly two-thirds of global wheat output.

Global maize production is projected to increase by around 171 Mt from current levels to reach 1.43 bln t by 2035. The largest absolute increases relative to the base period are expected in Brazil, China and the United States. In Brazil, where second-crop maize production is closely linked to soybean rotations and responds strongly to global market signals, production growth is projected to exceed the global average growth. Maize production is also expected to grow relatively rapidly in sub-Saharan Africa as yields gradually improve and strong demand for local white maize provides investment incentives.

Global rice production is projected to increase by around 50 Mt from current levels to reach 601 Mt by 2035. Much of this growth is expected to originate from yield improvements in low- and lower middle-income countries. Asian countries, which dominate global rice production, will account for the bulk of the increase. India, projected to remain the world’s largest rice producer, is expected to account for more than half of the global production expansion, followed by least developed Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In China, rice production is projected to grow slowly, driven mainly by yield gains. At the same time, cultivated area is expected to decline gradually as production becomes more efficient and less productive land is withdrawn from cultivation. Reductions in rice area in China, Viet Nam, Brazil, and Pakistan are expected to be offset by expansion in India, Indonesia and Nigeria.

Global production of other coarse grains – including sorghum, barley, millets, rye, and oats – is projected to increase by around 35 Mt from current levels to reach 331 Mt by 2035. African countries are expected to contribute roughly half of this increase, reflecting the continued importance of these crops in local food systems and their adaptability to semi-arid environments. Sub-Saharan Africa, India, Ethiopia, and Nigeria are projected to contribute the largest increases in production. In contrast, production changes in major developed producers are expected to be modest, with stronger growth in Canada, more limited increases in the European Union, and slight declines in the United States.

2.3.3. Trade

Moderate growth and shifting trade shares

International trade plays an important role in balancing regional differences between cereal production and consumption. During the base period, global cereal trade accounted for 17% of total production. This share is projected to increase to 18% by 2035 as demand in several import-dependent regions continues to outpace domestic production under the baseline assumptions.

The traditional pattern of the Americas and Europe supplying major importing regions in Asia and Africa is expected to persist (Figure 2.5). Economic development and urbanisation are increasing per capita food demand, while population growth and expanding livestock sectors are further raising cereal use in many importing regions. This growing demand is expected to be increasingly met by major exporting regions with competitive production systems and well-established export infrastructure.

Global wheat exports are projected to increase by about 31 Mt from the base period to reach 235 Mt by 2035. Export growth from the major suppliers is expected to slow compared with the previous decade as global demand growth moderates. Russia is projected to maintain its position as the world’s largest wheat exporter, accounting for about one‑quarter of global trade, with exports approaching 60 Mt by 2035. The European Union is expected to remain the second-largest exporter, with shipments exceeding 32 Mt. Canada and the United States are projected to remain competitive exporters and together account for around one-quarter of global wheat trade. Population growth and rising domestic consumption are expected to absorb most of the additional output in India, keeping its wheat trade balance only marginally negative by 2035.

Export markets remain partially segmented by wheat quality. The United States, Canada, Australia and the European Union are expected to remain important suppliers of higher protein wheat, particularly to Asian markets. Russia will continue to play a growing role in global wheat trade but is projected to remain particularly competitive in price-sensitive markets such as North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and Western Asia. Import demand from North Africa and the Near East is projected to increase slightly as population growth and limited domestic production capacity sustain demand in international markets.

Global maize exports are projected to increase by around 34 Mt from the base period to reach about 218 Mt by 2035. Global maize trade will remain highly concentrated, with the four largest exporters – the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine – accounting for about 90% of world exports (Figure 2.6). The United States is projected to remain the largest exporter, with export volumes continuing to grow. Brazil is expected to continue expanding its export presence as second-crop maize production linked to soybean rotations supports rising output, although a growing share of maize production is also expected to be used for ethanol production. Export growth from Brazil is projected to remain above the global average, although it will slow compared with the previous decade.

China’s maize imports are projected to remain relatively low compared to recent years, fluctuating between 7 Mt and 13 Mt. While feed demand continues to grow to supply the domestic livestock sector, import volumes will remain dependent on domestic production levels, feed substitution, and policy decisions related to stock management and trade. In sub‑Saharan Africa, maize production is expected to continue meeting most domestic food demand, leaving the region largely self-sufficient overall. White maize will remain a key staple food crop, while South Africa is projected to remain a key exporter and continue supplying mainly regional markets.

International trade in other coarse grains – primarily barley and sorghum – remains much less than that of wheat or maize. Global exports are projected to increase by around 9 Mt to reach about 55 Mt by 2035. The European Union, Russia and Canada are expected to account for most of this increase. Together with Australia and Argentina, these exporters are projected to account for about 81% of global exports by 2035. Import demand will remain concentrated in a relatively small number of markets. China, Saudi Arabia, countries in North Africa and the Near East, as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, are projected to absorb about 70% of global imports.

Global rice trade will grow faster than other cereals in the coming decade, increasing by about 22 Mt to reach 81 Mt by 2035. Following the removal of export restrictions imposed in 2022 and 2023, India is projected to regain much of the export market share it temporarily lost, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest rice exporter. Exports from the five largest rice exporters – India, Viet Nam, Thailand, Pakistan and the United States – are projected to become even more dominant. Their combined share of global exports is expected to rise from around 77% in the base period to about 81% by 2035, largely reflecting India’s expanding role in global markets.

Historically, Indica rice has accounted for the bulk of rice traded internationally. Demand for other rice varieties, however, is expected to continue growing over the projection period. Import demand in African countries is projected to expand faster than the global average, as consumption growth continues to outpace domestic production. African countries are projected to increase their share of global rice imports from 35% currently to 45% by 2035, while Asia’s share is expected to decline from 46% to 39%, despite continued growth in import volumes.

2.3.4. Prices

Nominal prices for cereals are projected to continue their upward medium-term trends (Figure 2.7). Wheat prices are expected to reach about 307 USD/t by 2035. Maize and other coarse grain prices are projected to reach around 236 USD/t and 256 USD/t, respectively. Rice prices are also expected to stabilise along their upward medium-term trend. The reference export price for milled rice is projected to reach about 473 USD/t by 2035, as export supplies are expected to gradually normalise following recent export restrictions, production expansions, and strong demand in sub-Saharan Africa and the Near East.

Cereal prices decline slightly when adjusting for inflation. Continued productivity improvements and expanding production are expected to keep supply growth broadly in line with global demand over the projection period, exerting mild downward pressure on real prices.

2.4. Risks and uncertainties

A more uncertain geopolitical, environmental and policy environment in the next decade?

Global cereal markets remain exposed to several sources of uncertainty that could influence supply, demand and prices over the coming years. Weather variability remains one of the most immediate risks for cereal production. The Outlook generally assumes on-trend production conditions, but extreme weather events or changes in weather patterns could quickly alter global supplies and prices.

Geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks for global cereal markets through their effects on energy and input costs. Fluctuations in global oil prices in early 2026 have heightened uncertainty around transport, energy, and fertiliser prices, which are closely linked to fuel markets. Such developments can raise production and shipping costs and would lead to alternative market projections.

Trade policy developments remain an important source of uncertainty. Broader policy frameworks – including sustainability-oriented agricultural and biofuel-support policies – could affect production costs, land use, feed demand, and the timing and scale of imports, contributing to variability in global supply and demand conditions.

Finally, policy developments in major consuming countries could also alter global demand patterns. China’s efforts to strengthen domestic grain self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports – through support for domestic production, feed efficiency and feed diversification – may affect its import demand for cereals and lead to shifts in global trade flows. Recent developments in alternative payment systems, including the increased use of local currencies in trade transactions, may help ease foreign exchange constraints for some countries but could also contribute to greater fragmentation of global markets. In such contexts, the stability and openness of the global trading system will remain essential for ensuring food security.