The OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 provides a comprehensive assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and aquatic animal food markets at national, regional, and global levels. Jointly produced by the OECD and FAO, in collaboration with their Members and international commodity organisations, the Outlook serves as a forward-looking reference to support evidence-based policy planning. This 22nd edition examines the evolving landscape of global agriculture in the face of economic, societal and environmental challenges.
While this edition of the Outlook uses data up until 2025 as the basis for projections, economic disruptions associated with the 2026 conflict in the Middle East are impacting agricultural markets. The Aglink-Cosimo model, used to formulate the Outlook’s regular projections, was employed to assess the impact of a slowdown in global economic growth as well as higher energy and fertiliser costs. Results show that the projected reduction in fertiliser use decreases cereal production, especially in low-income countries, leading to a weakening of agrifood system performance. Associated income losses and higher food prices would also force households in lower-income countries to reduce food consumption and shift towards cheaper food items, while households in higher-income countries will generally maintain their dietary patterns, reflecting greater resilience.
Thanks to productivity gains, average gross per capita agricultural incomes are expected to increase by 9% over the next decade, despite rising input costs and broadly stable real agricultural prices. This increase equates to a global average of agricultural labour productivity (an indicator for real gross agricultural income per worker) of USD 3 800 per farm worker. However, this global average masks wide geographical differences and markedly different speeds of growth across income groups. In 2023‑2025, average agricultural labour productivity in high‑income countries is estimated at just over USD 21 100 and is projected to reach USD 22 155 by 2035. The highest levels of output per agricultural worker are found in North America, Western Europe, and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). Farms in these countries typically cultivate large areas with relatively low labour input, highly mechanised production systems and significant financial commitments. While this boosts productivity, it also exposes these operations to considerable liquidity risks given the inherent volatility of agricultural revenues.
Many middle‑income nations in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and East and Central Asia regions are in a transitional phase, moving out of labour-intensive agricultural production toward more commercialised and capital‑intensive activities and technologies. Over the projection period, increasing mechanisation in these countries is expected to improve land use intensity and the efficiency and timeliness of farm operations such as planting and harvesting. It also facilitates the reallocation of labour within agriculture and to off-farm activities, offering strong potential to raise rural incomes. However, realising these gains also depends on enabling conditions and sound governance that reduce market distortions and support participation in agrifood value chains, particularly through better access to inputs, infrastructure and marketing.
Agricultural workers in low-income regions within sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia currently earn, on average, about USD 930 per year, a figure projected to rise only modestly to around USD 1 100 during the Outlook period. Structural challenges persist, including widespread small-scale subsistence farming characterised by highly labour-intensive products and limited mechanisation, restricted market access, and reliance on staple crops or extensive livestock. These conditions remain inadequate for alleviating rural poverty. There is an urgent need for comprehensive investments in increasing labour productivity and alternative employment opportunities to enable rural populations to rise out of poverty and enhance food security and nutrition.
Given the inherent volatility of agricultural markets, there is a one-in-four chance that gross agricultural income per worker in 2035 will be at least 12% lower than the projected baseline level and in low-income countries, the decline could exceed 20%. Although baseline projections point to an increase of about 9% in average gross agricultural incomes per worker by 2035, maintaining the historical variability of key income drivers leaves a 25% probability that income could fall below today’s level by the end of the projection period. Policies should support resilience and diversification strategies to minimise the negative impacts from risks, while still enabling farmers to benefit from opportunities.
Real international agricultural commodity prices are projected to remain broadly stable at or below current levels over the next decade. This Outlook reflects anticipated ongoing productivity gains and typical weather patterns, which contribute to lower marginal production costs for most agricultural commodities. These projections are supported by underlying structural factors and long-term trends, which are expected to maintain stability over the forecast period. This does not preclude variability around these projected price paths, as historical experience demonstrates that episodes of volatility and temporary price spikes can interrupt longer term trends. Such variability has been associated with a range of shocks, from the oil crises of the 1970s and the global financial and food crises of the late 2000s and early 2010s, to the recent pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, including the 2026 Middle East conflict.
While productivity gains are expected to account for the bulk of agricultural production growth over the next decade, some expansion of crop areas and livestock numbers will still be necessary, leading to a 6.5% increase in direct greenhouse gas emissions. Livestock are expected to account for about 77% of this increase, reflecting growing animal herds, while synthetic fertilisers contribute a further 23% through higher nitrous oxide emissions. The policy challenge is to accelerate sustainable productivity growth and close technology gaps, enabling emissions to grow more slowly or even decline relative to current values. This must be achieved while ensuring global food security and better nutrition outcomes for a growing population with evolving dietary preferences.
Consumers in lower middle-income countries are expected to further diversify their diets, particularly by increasing the share of livestock products consumed as part of rising living standards. Southeast Asia will account for an estimated 39% of global consumption growth by 2035, as population expansion induces higher total demand while urbanisation and income gains diversify dietary patterns away from staple foods toward higher shares of livestock and fish products. Despite ongoing societal initiatives aimed at promoting healthier diets, excessive food consumption is likely to continue in wealthier countries. In contrast, low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to continue to lag behind in food security and nutrition due to low household incomes and broader macroeconomic constraints that limit investment in local production and the ability to finance food imports. Persistent inefficiencies in food supply chains lead to high food losses and limit the availability of affordable and nutritious food, making productivity growth and well-functioning trade fundamental to prevent sustained increases in food prices.
Multilateral co‑operation and rules-based international agricultural trade remain vital for resilient global food security, accessible and affordable healthy diets, and stable farm incomes. Agricultural product markets in low-income countries remain limited by insufficient transport infrastructure, inadequate storage facilities, suboptimal trade facilitation processes, and technological gaps. These factors hinder both farmers and consumers from maximising growth opportunities at domestic and international levels. Investments in infrastructure and technologies are needed to improve market access if countries, especially low-income countries, are to capitalise on these opportunities.