The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 is a collaborative effort by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Serving as a reference for forward-looking policy planning, the Outlook draws upon the expertise of both organisations, incorporating inputs from collaborating member countries and commodity organisations. It provides a comprehensive assessment of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the next ten years. The Outlook uses the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to ensure consistency and global equilibrium across all markets. Detailed methodology and model documentation are available online at www.agri-outlook.org.
This 22st joint edition of the Agricultural Outlook comprises three parts.
Part 1: Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects (Chapter 1) outlines key projections and insights on challenges facing agri-food systems over the coming decade. The chapter presents the recent developments in agricultural markets and underlying macroeconomic and policy assumptions (Section 1.1). It discusses the trends and prospects for prices and production (Section 1.2), consumption (Section 1.3), and trade (Section 1.4) This year, the Outlook emphasis on agricultural labour productivity and income variability among workers (Section 1.2.2).
Part 2: Commodity chapters describe recent market developments and medium-term projections for consumption, production, trade, and prices for the commodities covered in the Outlook. Each of the nine chapters — Cereals (Chapter 2), Oilseeds and oilseed products (Chapter 3), Sugar (Chapter 4), Meat (Chapter 5), Dairy and dairy products (Chapter 6), Fish and other aquatic products for human consumption (Chapter 7), Biofuels (Chapter 8), Cotton (Chapter 9), and Other products (Chapter 10) — concludes with a discussion of the main issues and uncertainties affecting markets over the next ten years.
Part 3: The Statistical Annex is available online as support material but not included in the printed version of the Outlook. The Statistical Annex presents projections for production, consumption, trade, and prices for agricultural commodities, fish, and biofuels, as well as macroeconomic and policy assumptions. Market evolution over the Outlook period is described using annual growth rates and data for the final year (2035) relative to a three-year base period (2023-25).
The Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the OECD and FAO Secretariats.
At the OECD, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Marcel Adenäuer (baseline coordinator), Asli Bokesoy, Fabiana Cerasa, Thomas Chatzopoulos, Armelle Elasri (publication co-ordinator), Hubertus Gay (acting Head of Division), Barbora Gilbert, Gaëlle Gouarin, Edith Laget (Outlook co-ordinator), Claude Nénert, Eszter Palotaï and Grégoire Tallard of the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division. From the Agricultural Resources Policy Division, Jamie Ash contributed to the Dairy chapter, Claire Delpeuch and Will Symes to the Fish chapter, and Agnes Szuda to the Box 1.3 The OECD Global Forum on Agriculture 2025: Attracting New Farmers for the Future of Agriculture. The publication preparation and communication activities were provided by Caitlin Boros, Hilary Gaboriau and Cem Mehmethanoglu. The publication benefited from a messaging review by David Hallam, and language review by Jennifier Allain. Technical support in the preparation of the Outlook was provided by Marc Regnier and Eric Espinasse. Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations provided useful comments on earlier drafts of the report.
At the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Markets and Trade Division (EST) under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen (EST Division Director), with the overall guidance of Máximo Torero (FAO Chief Economist) and by the Economic and Social Development Stream Management team. The core projections team consisted of: Abdi Ali, Sergio René Araujo Enciso, Isabel Burgos, Giulia Caddeo, Holger Matthey (Team Leader), Svetlana Mladenovic and Wendkouni Jean-Baptiste Zongo. For fish, the team consisted of Pierre Charlebois, Adrienne Egger, Paul Lirette and Stefania Vannuccini (Team Leader) from the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Division. Advice on fishmeal and fish oil issues and historical data were provided by Enrico Bachis from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO). Macroeconomic projections benefited from the input by Oxford Economics. The sugar and cotton sections were contributed by Mamoun Amrouk, Fabio Palmeri and Sabine Altendorf, with data and technical advice by the International Sugar Organization (ISO) and Lorena Ruiz from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). The section on bananas and major tropical fruits was prepared by Sabine Altendorf, with input from Giuseppe Bonavita and Pascal Liu. Commodity expertise was provided by Grace Maria Karumathy, Emanuele Marocco, Shirley Mustafa, Alexis Poullain, Monika Tothova (Team Leader), and Di Yang. Iryna Kobuta and Evelyne van Heck contributed Box 1.4. Key features of women’s participation in agrifood markets and trade. Aikaterini Kavallari provided analytical support for the projection of agriculture value added. Research assistance and database preparation were provided by Maria Antip, David Bedford, Victoria Johnston, Yanyun Li, Lavinia Lucarelli, Emanuele Mazzini, and Marco Milo. This edition also benefited from comments made by various colleagues from FAO and member country institutions. The authors would like to thank Araceli Cardenas, Yongdong Fu, Jessica Mathewson, Ameneh Mostafapour, and Kimberly Sullivan for their invaluable assistance with publication and communication issues.
Finally, information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Fertilizer Association, International Grains Council, International Sugar Organization, Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) and World Association of Beet and Cane Growers is gratefully acknowledged.
The complete Agricultural Outlook, including the fully documented Outlook database that includes historical data and projections, can be accessed through the OECD-FAO joint internet site: www.agri-outlook.org. Unless otherwise specified, figures are based on data from the OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035 database, accessible via the OECD Data Explorer: http://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/1hc.
The published OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 is available on the OECD’s website and FAO Document Repository.