This chapter describes market developments and presents medium-term baseline projections for global meat markets for the period 2026-2035. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for beef, pig meat, poultry and sheep meat. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the key risks and uncertainties that could have implications for world meat markets over the next decade.
OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035
Abstract
Meat consumption growth is projected to decelerate, reflecting shifts in demographic and dietary preferences. Global per capita consumption is expected to rise by about 0.7 kg in edible retail weight equivalent (rwe) over the outlook period. By 2035, it will reach nearly 30 kg rwe per capita. This growth is less than half the increase observed in the previous decade. In high-income countries, ageing populations, higher red meat prices and growing health, environmental and animal welfare concerns are expected to constrain further growth, although demand has remained resilient in some markets. In low- and middle-income countries, per capita consumption will remain well below levels in high-income countries.
Improvements in breeding efficiency and slaughter yields are projected to enhance environmental performance of meat production. Globally, increases in average slaughter weights are estimated to account for 3%, 10%, 10% and 28% of production growth in bovine, sheep, poultry and pig meat, respectively; the higher pig meat share reflects modest overall production growth. Despite these gains, global meat sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to rise by nearly 6% over the coming decade, reflecting continued growth in livestock numbers. Europe is the only region projected to record a decline (≈ ‑8%), mainly due to reductions in ruminant and pig output in the European Union.
People’s Republic of China’s (hereafter “China”) changing role in global meat markets is expected to reconfigure trade flows. China’s beef imports are projected to increase by about 500 thousand tonnes (kt) by 2035, even as its share of global meat imports declines due to rising pig meat self-sufficiency. At the same time, poultry exports are projected to expand beyond traditional destinations, supported by competitive pricing and compliance with import-market requirements. More broadly, evolving trade measures and market access conditions increasingly shape global meat flows.
Meat prices will continue to diverge across products while easing in real terms. In the short term, nominal ruminant meat prices strengthen as herd rebuilding constrains supply growth. In contrast, non-ruminant prices face less upward pressure as production expands more smoothly and import demand growth slows, particularly in China. Structural differences in biological cycles, productivity growth and cost structures remain central to price dynamics. Real prices are projected to decline, with larger decreases for pig and poultry meat than for beef and sheep meat.
Animal disease and pests, including parasitic infestations such as screwworm, highlight the need for strong biosecurity and co‑ordinated trade management. Disease outbreaks can cause multiyear disruptions along the meat supply chain affecting production, trade and prices through culling, movement controls and export bans, as illustrated by recent developments related to New World screwworm in North America. Impacts are greater under broad rather than regionalised restrictions, and recovery is slower in ruminant systems due to longer biological cycles. Producers absorb a substantial share of economic losses, partly offset by government compensation. Prices can either increase or decrease depending on whether supply reductions or demand responses dominate. Considerable uncertainty thus prevails in international markets, with ongoing outbreaks reinforcing volatility in trade and supply.
Stronger import demand and tight ruminant supplies lifted global meat prices
In 2025, global meat production increased by 1.4%, reaching 375 million tonnes carcass-weight equivalent (Mt cwe). Poultry remained the main driver, despite continued outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in several regions, and pig meat output also increased, mainly in China. By contrast, bovine meat production declined, reflecting herd reductions in major producing countries, notably the United States, while sheep meat production contracted in Oceania. As a result, global consumption increased for poultry and pig meat, declined for bovine meat, and remained broadly stable for sheep meat.
World meat trade increased slightly in 2025, mainly on the account of poultry. HPAI‑related restrictions on Brazil temporarily constrained exports, creating opportunities for China and Thailand to expand shipments, especially of processed products. In bovine meat markets, imports into the United States increased as domestic availability remained constrained during herd rebuilding. At the same time, Australia increased exports, supported by higher slaughter volumes, partly offsetting tight global supplies.
The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) International Meat Price Index rose by 5% in 2025 although developments differed across meat types. Ovine and bovine prices increased strongly reaching new historical highs due to limited export supplies and robust demand. On the other hand, poultry and pig meat prices declined with higher supplies. Uncertainty related to animal disease developments and geopolitical tensions also contributed to market volatility.
5.3.1. Consumption
Global meat consumption continues to grow but at a slower pace
Global meat consumption is projected to reach around 412 Mt by 2035, a 12% increase from the base period. This growth reflects continued population growth, rising incomes and, in many emerging economies, increases in per capita consumption, supported by relatively moderate real meat prices compared to recent highs. However, the pace of per capita consumption growth is expected to slow (Figure 5.1) compared with the previous decade, as food consumption patterns stabilise, preferences evolve, and demographic trends shift in high- income regions. Most demand growth is expected in middle-income countries, while consumption in high-income countries slows.
As consumption levels in high-income countries have matured, demographic change and evolving dietary preferences contribute to slower per capita growth than in previous decades. Over the Outlook period, poultry, accounts by far, for the largest absolute increase in consumption, increasing by 29 Mt (+20%). Sheep meat also grows relatively quickly, rising by 3 Mt (+20%), while beef rises by 6 Mt (+8%), and pig meat by a more modest 6 Mt (+4%). Demand growth is concentrated in lower middle-income countries and upper middle-income countries, accounting for around 76% of the global increase. Excluding China and India, the largest absolute increases are projected in Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Viet Nam. In Africa, total meat consumption is projected to rise by about 32%, primarily reflecting rapid population growth. Per capita gains remain limited.
On a per capita basis, global average meat consumption is projected to increase by around 0.7 kg rwe over the outlook period, reaching approximately 30 kg per capita/year by 2035, less than half of the growth observed in the previous decade. In most high-income countries, where consumption levels are already high, per capita growth is projected to slow further. Relative prices remain a key determinant of protein choice (Gérard, 2025[1]), supporting continued substitution from ruminant meats towards poultry in many markets. Health (Richter et al., 2025[2]), environmental and animal welfare considerations are expected to continue to influence consumption patterns in some markets, contributing to gradual demand segmentation within those markets.
Poultry consumption is projected to reach 177 Mt ready‑to‑cook (rtc) by 2035, accounting for around two‑thirds of the additional meat consumed globally over the Outlook period as the sector responds rapidly to demand. This reflects poultry’s continued cost competitiveness and supply responsiveness, supported by short production cycles and continued improvements in feed conversion efficiency. Most additional demand is expected in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa.
Pig meat contributes 13% to global meat consumption growth. However, in per capita terms, consumption is projected to decline by around 4% relative to the base period (2023‑2025), reflecting slow demand growth in high-income regions, particularly in the European Union, where environmental concerns and changing dietary preferences weigh on consumption. This global per capita decline reflects faster population growth in regions where pig meat is less commonly consumed. Animal disease outbreaks and biosecurity constraints may affect pig meat availability and prices in some regions, potentially moderating supply growth relative to poultry. The largest per capita gains are projected in Latin America (about +1.2 kg per capita/year rwe by 2035), supported by favourable relative pig meat-to-beef prices.
Beef consumption is projected to increase moderately at a rate of 8% over the Outlook period while average per capita consumption remains around 6 kg rwe per capita/year. In mature markets such as Europe, North America and Oceania, per capita consumption is projected to decline, reflecting persistently higher relative prices compared with other meats, alongside health and environmental considerations. By contrast, per capita consumption is projected to rise in parts of Asia and the Middle East, supported by income growth and diversification in protein consumption.
Sheep meat continues to account for a small share of global meat consumption. Its role remains significant in regions such as the Middle East and North Africa, where cultural and religious preferences limit substitution towards pig meat. Consumption remains rooted in traditional diets although relative prices and availability influence substitution towards other proteins.
5.3.2. Production
Productivity gains sustain meat production growth
World meat production is projected to increase by 12% over the Outlook period, equivalent to roughly 43 Mt cwe. More than half of the projected increase is expected in Asia, where population growth, rising incomes and continued urbanisation motivate and sustain investments into expansion and intensification of the sector. Poultry accounts for roughly two-thirds of this projected increase. Latin America will maintain its role as an important and expanding exporting region, supported by ample feed and land availability, continued productivity improvements, and competitive production costs. While Africa contributes a small share of global meat production in absolute terms, it continues to account for a relatively large share of global sheep meat and bovine production compared with other regions.
Biosecurity and animal disease management are becoming increasingly important determinants of global meat supply. Recurrent outbreaks of HPAI, African swine fever, foot and mouth disease, and other transboundary diseases have reinforced the importance of surveillance, vaccination strategies, and zoning or regionalisation to limit production losses and preserve market access (WOAH, 2025[3]). In some regions, strengthened biosecurity and disease prevention strategies have coincided with reductions in antimicrobial use in livestock production in recent years, although antimicrobial resistance remains a significant and persistent risk, particularly in intensive systems (WOAH, 2025[3]). While these measures can reduce epidemiological risk and support export continuity, they also raise compliance requirements and production costs. For small and mid-sized producers, upgrading facilities and practices can be financially prohibitive, contributing to sectoral consolidation and widening disparities in market access. Improved disease control can, therefore, support productivity gains and is increasingly a prerequisite for preserving farm incomes in a context of rising market volatility.
Meat production growth over the Outlook period, is supported by lower feed costs and productivity growth, particularly in poultry and pig systems. The fastest expansion is expected in upper middle-income countries, where rising demand for affordable animal protein sustains investments in domestic production capacity. Compared with ruminant systems, this expansion is more often met through local production, because poultry systems are less land-intensive, require lower upfront investment, and can be scaled rapidly through vertically integrated supply chains. In addition, their shorter biological cycles also allow producers to adjust supply more quickly than in bovine systems, which depends on longer herd rebuilding. These characteristics reinforce the role of poultry as a cost-efficient and responsive source of animal protein over the medium term.
Pig meat production is projected to expand throughout the Outlook period, driven by herd rebuilding in Latin American countries where production systems continue to be modernised and integrated into formal value chains. Overall, pig meat contributes around 13% of global production growth over the period. In parts of Asia, including Korea, the Philippines and Viet Nam, production systems are shifting from small-scale backyard operations towards more commercialised structures with stronger biosecurity.
Global beef output is projected to reach 82 Mt cwe by 2035. Growth is mainly supported by gradual increases in carcass weights and improved herd management in several regions. China, India and Pakistan are expected to account for a significant share of the projected growth. China’s production growth reflects continued investment in domestic supply capacity in response to strong domestic demand and favourable market incentives. India’s buffalo meat exports are projected to expand further, particularly towards markets with specific Halal certification requirements, supported by improvement in processing capacity, cold chain infrastructure and cost competitiveness. In other major exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and the United States, herd rebuilding is projected to start in the early years of the Outlook period, following earlier liquidation cycles linked to drought conditions and weak profitability.
Sheep meat production is projected to increase 17%, reaching nearly 22 Mt cwe. This increase reflects gradual flock rebuilding and improvements in lambing rates supported by favourable price conditions. China is projected to account for around 15% of the global increase, reflecting continued expansion of sheep production in response to rising domestic demand. In contrast, production in the European Union is projected to continue declining, with output increasingly concentrated in a limited number of Member states. In New Zealand, competition for land use, forestry expansion and evolving climate policy settings are expected to constrain flock expansion, placing a greater emphasis on productivity gains to sustain output. In Australia, flock composition continues to shift towards meat-oriented breeds, supporting higher carcass weights and reinforcing the sector’s growing focus on lamb production relative to wool.
Efficiency improvements support production growth while limiting inventory expansion and environmental pressures
Livestock producers face rising input costs, volatile markets, disease risks and tightening environmental requirements. Many producers respond by improving productivity, diversifying income sources and adopting new technologies. Improvements in slaughter yields are projected across the industry, with the strongest gains in poultry systems, followed by moderate increases in the sheep and pig sectors. Gains in bovine systems remain comparatively limited (Figure 5.2). These improvements are particularly relevant in middle-income countries, where tighter production margins increase the importance of efficiency gains in maintaining profitability and supporting expansion. Digital technologies, including artificial intelligence applications (Box 5.1), are increasingly being used to improve productivity and support more efficient livestock management.
GHG emissions from global meat production are projected to rise by 6% over the Outlook period. This increase remains below projected output growth, reflecting efficiency gains and a continued shift toward poultry production. Nevertheless, rising livestock numbers are expected to increase total sector emissions (Figure 5.3), with ruminant production remaining the largest contributor. Regional trends differ markedly. Emissions are projected to rise the most in Africa (+22%) and to fall in Europe (‑8%), as ruminant production contracts. Reducing avoidable losses along meat supply chains, including improvements in cold-chain infrastructure and reductions in consumer food waste, could further moderate resource use and limit additional production expansion.
Maintaining farm income and livelihood resilience remains an important consideration in the development of the meat sector. As noted by OECD/APO, multifactor productivity growth is a key driver of long-term economic performance and living standards (OECD/APO, 2022[4]). Productivity improvements can strengthen income stability by lowering production costs and improving efficiency, but they may also require additional investment and structural adjustment by producers. Improving livelihoods in agrifood systems depends not only on productivity growth, but also on broader structural conditions that shape resilience and access to opportunities, such as access to markets, infrastructure, investment capacity and the use of risk management tools. The ability of livestock producers to withstand volatility depends on factors such as investment capacity and the use of risk management tools. Indicators including income stability, diversification of production and income sources, and access to services remain important for evaluating the economic sustainability of livestock systems.
Artificial intelligence (AI), automation and imaging systems are increasingly used across the meat value chain, from farm management, to processing and logistics supporting grading, food safety and automation. In this context, automation refers to machines performing repetitive tasks, imaging systems refer to technologies that capture and analyse visual information, while AI refers to software systems that analyse data and support predictive decision making or adaptive control, typically based on machine-learning models trained on large datasets (Wang and Li, 2024[5]) (Ranade and Malav, 2025[6]). AI is often integrated into automated systems, enabling them to adapt to biological variability, such as differences in carcass size and shape. While these technologies are often combined in practice, they perform distinct functions: imaging captures data, automation executes tasks, and AI supports analysis and decision making.
On farms, AI-enable precision systems are being developed and adopted in some contexts to support animal health monitoring and feeding management. These tools may support emissions mitigation, particularly in ruminant systems, by improving feed efficiency and reducing waste (Rosati, 2024[7]). AI-enabled precision livestock systems combine sensor data, imaging and machine-learning models to detect anomalies, predict disease and optimise feeding in real time. These systems can contribute to cost reduction and improved income stability, although outcomes depend on adoption costs, farm size and market conditions. Their development is particularly relevant in a sector facing labour shortages, carcass variability and increasing food safety requirements.
Automation is also expanding in processing, often supported by AI, though adoption remains uneven across species and regions. For example, Baboolall et al. (2020[8]) note that processors in the most technologically advanced regions in Europe were expected to reach high automation in 25% of facilities by 2023, up from 10% in 2019 (Romanov et al., 2022[9]). Figure 5.4 illustrates differences in automation intensity across major species and processing stages over time for the most commonly consumed meat types in Europe, based on the evidence reviewed by (André-Zarna et al., 2026[10]). The results should be interpreted as indicative of relative automation patterns in the systems covered by that study, rather than as a global estimate.
Notes: Heat map comparing automation levels in the 1990s and today for the most commonly consumed meat types in Europe, by species and stage. Pre-stunning refers to animal handling before stunning. Post-stunning refers to early carcass processing steps after stunning (e.g. bleeding and evisceration) and before cutting and preparation. Primary steps are generally more automated than secondary ones, such as cutting, boning and trimming; beef remains comparatively less automated due to greater carcass variability. Automation remains partial, particularly in secondary processing where manual operations continue to play a significant role.
Source: Adapted from Figure 3, André-Zarna et al. (2026[9]).
AI-powered computer vision is increasingly used for meat grading and quality evaluation through machine-learning models trained on image or spectral data. One study reports 96% accuracy in identifying carcass regions (Gonçalves et al., 2021[11]) while another finds a 0.95 correlation with expert marbling scores (Lee et al., 2022[12]). These findings suggest that, in specific experimental or commercial applications, AI can match human consistency. Automation in secondary processing, especially cutting and deboning, is increasingly supported by AI-based vision systems that enable real-time adaptation of operations. Robots with 3D cameras can identify cutting points and adjust in real time. In sheep processing trials, success rates ranged from 85% to 92% (Lyu et al., 2025[13]), improving workplace safety. Some automated systems also reach speeds exceeding manual cutting (Wang and Li, 2024[5]).
Imaging systems can detect bone fragments and unwanted material with high accuracy. One study found 93.3% accuracy for detecting bone in chicken breast (Lim et al., 2020[14]). AI systems are also increasingly used to inspect packaging, detect seal integrity and verify labelling compliance, and to identify contaminants such as metal, plastic or other foreign materials (Ranade and Malav, 2025[6]). Combined with AI models and real-time data processing, these systems enable automated classification, anomaly detection and decision support along processing lines (Wang and Li, 2024[5]). When combined with Internet of Things1 monitoring and digital data capture, these tools help reduce waste and improve food safety. This integration of automation and human judgment is often described as Meat Industry 5.0.2 Robots handle repetitive tasks while humans operators retain responsibility for managing biological variability, hygiene or complex decisions are involved (André-Zarna et al., 2026[10]). This hybrid model improves safety, mitigates labour shortages and supports more stable output.
On farms, precision livestock systems monitor animal health, optimise feeding and detect stress early, improving resource use and productivity (Distante et al., 2025[15]; Bernabucci et al., 2025[16]). Compared with row crops, however, digitalisation in livestock production remains less advanced. Many tools remain in the pre-commercialisation or early diffusion stage, and evidence on adoption and impact, particularly environmental outcomes, remains limited (McFadden et al., 2022[17]). Recent syntheses of AI in precision livestock farming highlight strong progress in animal recognition and health or welfare monitoring but note that environmental and sustainability applications are under-represented. Precision feeding and monitoring could, therefore, be priority areas to reduce emissions intensity (e.g. methane per kilogramme of beef), alongside gains in productivity (Distante et al., 2025[15]). Most of these systems currently act as decision support tools, flagging abnormal patterns and prompting management responses.
In distribution, digital traceability and cold chain monitoring can improve transparency and facilitate product recalls, although adoption remains uneven (Mohammed et al., 2023[18]; Rajput et al., 2025[19]).
Reviews of digital agriculture find that AI-based systems can improve productivity, reduce costs and mortality, and support farm efficiency and livelihoods (Papadopoulos et al., 2025[20]). However, evidence of long-term income gains remains limited, and benefits vary with adoption costs, access to technology and market conditions (McFadden et al., 2022[17]).
Overall, these technologies can support productivity across the meat value chain and contribute to more reliable yields, although their impacts remain context-specific. Digital technologies, including AI, are becoming an increasingly important component of resilient meat production and are expected to play an increasing role in productivity and risk management, where adoption costs, data availability and technical capacity allow.
1. Internet of Things refers to connected sensors that collect real-time data on temperature, hygiene, location or equipment performance.
2. Meat Industry 1.0 refers to early mechanisation from the late 19th to the mid-20th century. Meat Industry 2.0 mirrors the adoption of mass production principles through the 1980s. Meat Industry 3.0 marks the introduction of digital control systems and early automation. Meat Industry 4.0 includes smart and connected systems such as sensors, Internet of Things devices, 3D vision and data-driven decision tools. Meat Industry 5.0 builds on these technologies and focuses on human robot collaboration, flexibility, sustainability and resilience.
5.3.3. Trade
Global meat trade expands amid shifting supply and demand regional dynamics
Global meat trade is projected to expand at a slower pace than in the previous decade, reflecting production recoveries and more balanced consumption growth (Figure 5.5). Structural changes in major markets continue to shape global trade flows. In particular, China’s strategy to strengthen domestic animal protein production is influencing its import demand patterns, specifically including increasing pig meat self-sufficiency to reduce its reliance on imports. However, beef import demand will remain structurally significant, maintaining China’s role as a key destination for major exporters. Underlying demand conditions continue to support substantial trade volumes over the Outlook period.
The European Commission’s EU Agricultural Outlook (European Commission, 2025[21]) baseline, used as a key input into these projections, includes only trade agreements ratified by the end of October 2025; the EU-Mercosur Agreement is, therefore, not reflected in the current projections. Under the negotiated text, additional beef market access would be phased in through tariff‑rate quotas for fresh and frozen beef. Given the limited scale of the agreed TRQs relative to current trade flows and production, modelling indicates that, once implemented, the impact on EU beef imports and cattle-sector incomes would be modest, with small positive economy-wide effects (Gohin and Matthews, 2025[22]).
Brazil, the European Union and the United States remain the largest exporters of meat, together accounting for more than half of world exports by 2035. However, EU export volumes are projected to decline by around 3% over the Outlook period as structural cost pressures weigh on competitiveness. Australia and Canada are projected to rank fourth and fifth among global exporters, although their export volumes remain considerably smaller than those of the three largest exporters. Export growth is strongest in Argentina, China, Thailand and the Republic of Türkiye, supported by productivity gains, feed availability and competitive cost structures, and sustained demand in emerging markets.
China remains a central driver of global meat trade dynamics. Efforts to strengthen domestic animal protein production are increasing pig meat self-sufficiency and reducing imports, while beef import demand remains structurally significant, maintaining China as a key destination for major exporters. At the same time, China has recently transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter of poultry. It is projected to expand its net export position over the Outlook period, becoming the world’s fifth-largest poultry exporter behind Thailand, supported by rising production capacity, competitive pricing and improved compliance with importing-market requirements. This shift also consistent with moderating domestic demand growth as population growth slows and income responsiveness weakens at higher income levels. In several cases, disease-related supply adjustments in other regions and shifts in sourcing patterns further reinforce export expansion.
Australia and New Zealand are projected to maintain their leading positions in global sheep meat exports, targeting higher value markets in Europe and North America. In Australia, export growth is expected to be driven by a continued shift toward more profitable lighter lambs and the phase-out of live sheep exports by sea, scheduled to conclude by 2028 under existing legislation. New Zealand sheep meat exports are projected to remain stable as land use gradually shifts away from sheep production toward alternative uses, partly offset by ongoing productivity gains. In the European Union, production is projected to decline modestly, while export volumes stabilise after earlier contraction, reflecting ageing producer demographics, structural cost and competitiveness pressures. At the same time, tight global red meat supplies and rising incomes in parts of the Middle East and Indonesia are expected to sustain import demand for lamb, supporting trade prospects despite limited scope for rapid flock expansion in Oceania.
5.3.4. Prices
Ruminant prices remain firmer than non‑ruminant prices
World reference meat prices are projected to evolve unevenly in nominal terms over the Outlook period (Figure 5.6). Beef and sheep meat prices are expected to strengthen in the early years as herd rebuilding and limited ruminant inventories constrain market availability in major producing regions. By contrast, pig meat and poultry meat prices face less upward pressure as shorter production cycles, faster productivity gains and greater feed-conversion efficiency support faster supply adjustment alongside weaker import demand growth in key markets, including China. Historical nominal price trends over 2000-2025 show that ruminant meats, particularly beef, have increased more rapidly than non-ruminant meats, reflecting tighter supply conditions and lower productivity growth in ruminant production systems.
In real terms (deflated by the US GDP deflator), international reference meat prices are projected to ease from current high levels over the medium term. This adjustment reflects lower real feed costs as global grain and oilseed markets stabilise, together with ongoing efficiency gains in livestock production systems. Energy costs remain an important input into feed production and energy price fluctuations can raise costs in agriculture directly through fuel and indirectly through chemicals and fertiliser (World Bank, 2024[23]). For beef and sheep meat, real prices are projected to peak during 2026 before declining as herd rebuilding progresses and supply growth resumes. By 2035, real beef and sheep meat prices are projected to decline by approximately 16% and 6%, respectively, relative to an unusually elevated 2023-2025 base period that was characterised by tight global supplies and cyclical herd contraction.
Real prices for pig meat and poultry meat are expected to decline more markedly, reaching levels around 20% below the base period average by 2035. This largely reflects faster productivity growth. The resulting widening in the real price gap between ruminant and non-ruminant meats reinforces the relative affordability of pig meat and poultry and supports gradual substitution away from higher priced ruminant meats.
These projections extend the longer-term divergence observed between ruminant and non-ruminant meat prices. Slower productivity gains, greater land requirements, and biological constraints in cattle and sheep production contribute to relatively higher production costs for ruminant meats. By contrast, the pig and poultry sectors benefit from sustained productivity improvements and higher feed conversion efficiency, which support lower production costs and exert downward pressure on real prices. Shorter production cycles in these sectors also allow supply to adjust more rapidly to market conditions. Evidence from the IPCC and the FAO assessments indicates that ruminant production is generally more emissions- and resource-intensive than pork or poultry, reinforcing the structural cost differences between these production systems and FAO assessments (FAO, 2023[24]).
At the consumer level, the transmission of international reference price developments to retail prices varies across countries and income groups. Where value‑added components such as processing, transport, retail and food services account for a growing share of final food prices, retail prices become less sensitive to changes in primary agricultural prices. As the farm share of food expenditure declines, changes in producer prices translate into smaller percentage changes in retail prices because non‑agricultural costs account for a larger share of the final price structure (Chen et al., 2025[25]).
Overall, real price developments are projected to moderate from recent highs, but ruminant markets remain more firmly underpinned by slower productivity growth and rising environmental costs. Non-ruminant markets benefit from faster productivity growth and more elastic supply response, while increasing value‑chain costs continue to dampen the transmission of commodity price movements to consumers.
Biosecurity and extreme weather risks shape uncertainty in meat markets
Meat markets are exposed to a set of inter-related uncertainties operating through biological, weather-related, regulatory, macroeconomic and demand-side channels linked to evolving consumer preferences, purchasing power and substitution across sources of protein. While these sources of uncertainty have long been present, recent developments suggest that several are becoming more persistent or wide‑reaching, increasing the likelihood of recurrent disruptions rather than isolated shocks and adding volatility around baseline trajectories. Recent World Bank analysis indicates that the 2020s could be among the most volatile decades for commodity prices. (World Bank, 2025[26]).
Animal diseases and pests remain the biggest risk for meat markets, while baseline projections generally assume normal endemic conditions, with the capacity to disrupt production, trade flows and broader market dynamics simultaneously (WOAH, 2025[3]). Recent outbreaks of HPAI, African swine fever (ASF) and other transboundary diseases have illustrated these risks. Examples include the ASF outbreak in China in 2019 which reduced supply and drove a sharp increase in pork prices, while subsequent recovery and supply expansion later pushed prices down (Jongeneel, Gonzalez‐Martinez and Hoste, 2020[27]), the 2022‑2023 HPAI episode with poultry in the United States and HPAI with poultry in Brazil in May 2025. Each have had large impact on markets and illustrates how even a limited outbreak in a major exporting country can reverberate through international markets. Padilla, Baker and MacLaughlin (2025[28]) estimate that HPAI‑related trade significantly reduced poultry export values, with greater impacts when restrictions were applied at broader geographic scales. Beyond direct production losses, disease shocks propagate through supply chains via movement controls, precautionary culling and compliance costs (Kappes et al., 2023[29]). Extreme weather and changing weather patterns further increase epidemiological uncertainty by altering vector ranges and disease persistence (IPCC, 2023[30]). The increasing frequency and geographic spread of outbreaks, as documented by the World Organisation for Animal Health, raise the probability that medium-term market outcomes deviate from smooth baseline trajectories.
The Outlook assumes normal animal health conditions over the projection period. However, the recent New World screwworm outbreak is partially reflected in the baseline through a temporary disruption to Mexican live-cattle exports, followed by a return to normal trade flows by 2027. The potential implications of a more prolonged sanitary disruption are illustrated by an Aglink-Cosimo model scenario (see Box 5.2), allowing the sensitivity of beef markets to alternative disease outcomes to be assessed.
Context
New World screwworm (NWS) is a parasitic fly whose larvae infest wounds and natural body orifices in livestock, causing myiasis, a parasitic infestation in which fly larvae feed on the living tissue of animals, which can lead to severe or sometimes fatal infections. The parasite spreads through animal movements and requires co-ordinated eradication programmes combining surveillance, movement controls and sterile insect technique (SIT).1 NWS re-emerged in Central America and southern Mexico in 2024, prompting enhanced surveillance and sanitary control measures by Mexican animal health authorities (SENASICA).2 Scientific assessments indicate that the re-emergence of NWS in Mexico may affect livestock production and cattle trade within North America, where Mexico is a supplier of feeder cattle to the United States (Valdez-Espinoza et al., 2025[31]). Because NWS is transmitted through infested wounds in live animals, sanitary measures primarily affect movements of live cattle rather than trade in processed meat, making live animal exports particularly vulnerable to sanitary restrictions.
History
Historical experience shows that eradication can require prolonged control efforts.3 NWS was progressively eradicated from Mexico and the United States through co‑ordinated SIT campaigns from the 1950s to the late 1980s before the barrier zone was pushed to Central America. The duration of eradication programmes depends on factors such as the geographic extent of infestations; livestock density; animal movements; and the scale of sterile insect releases, producer behaviour and, particularly, incentives for early detection and reporting. These precedents support treating NWS as a potentially prolonged sanitary disruption rather than a short-lived shock in forward‑looking market scenarios.4 Recent plans in the United States to establish a new sterile fly production facility by 2027 to reinforce the regional SIT programme highlight the need for sustained eradication capacity across North and Central America.5
Scenario
To illustrate the potential implications of a prolonged sanitary disruption affecting live cattle trade, a simple scenario was simulated using the Aglink-Cosimo model and compared with the baseline projections from the 2025 Outlook, which are used here as the reference scenario. The scenario assumes a prolonged suspension of live cattle exports from Mexico to the United States associated with screwworm control measures. Since these exports consist largely of feeder cattle rather than finished animals, the disruption is interpreted as a reallocation of the finishing stage from the United States to Mexico. Animals that would otherwise be exported for finishing in US feedlots are instead retained, fed and finished to slaughter weight in Mexico. Market adjustment, therefore, occurs through changes in feeding, slaughter and trade patterns rather than through an immediate one-for-one increase in market-ready beef supply. Because feeder cattle must first be finished before slaughter, the resulting increase in domestic beef production reflects a medium-term reallocation of finishing and slaughter activities rather than an immediate conversion of feeder exports into beef output.
Compared with the 2025 baseline, the scenario results, expressed as average impacts over the full 10-year projection period, indicate that Mexico’s gross indigenous beef production would be about 6% above the baseline. Meat imports would be 11% lower, live cattle exports 100% lower, meat exports 18% higher, domestic consumption 2.5% higher and domestic producer prices 5% lower. These results reflect medium-term adjustments within the production system rather than immediate changes in market outcomes.
Interpretation
This illustrative scenario shows how animal disease outbreaks can influence market outcomes through sanitary measures affecting livestock movements and trade. In the case of NWS, restrictions primarily affect live animal movements rather than trade in processed meat. As a result, trade and movement controls can reshape domestic market balances by shifting finishing and slaughter activities across countries. The scenario, therefore, provides an indication of how markets might adjust if sanitary disruptions associated with screwworm control measures were to persist.
Weather-related shocks constitute an additional source of uncertainty for meat markets, primarily through their impact on feed availability, production costs and farm productivity. While changing weather conditions may improve pasture and forage conditions in some areas, drought, heat stress and rainfall variability are expected to weigh more heavily on grazing-based livestock systems, particularly for beef and sheep production. Recent scientific assessments indicate that extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense in many agricultural systems, with adverse impacts on crop yields, pasture conditions and animal health, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions (IPCC, 2023[30]). These shocks can lead to higher feed costs, constrain herd and flock expansion, disrupt pasture availability, and reduce productivity through heat-related stress (World Bank, 2024[23]).
Environmental and sustainability-related policy developments introduce additional uncertainty for the meat sector, particularly with respect to production costs and market access. Policies aimed at reducing GHG emissions, limiting land-use change or strengthening sustainability standards may require adjustments in production systems and investment. However, the timing, design and stringency of such measures remain uncertain, and implementation may vary across regions and over time, complicating medium-term planning (IPCC, 2023[30]).
Macroeconomic conditions and input cost volatility remain important sources of uncertainty. Feed and energy costs are a large share of production costs and can change quickly with weather outcomes, geopolitical tensions and commodity cycles. ABARES (2025[32]) notes that the global economic outlook has become more uncertain, partly because policy changes could affect inflation, trade and growth. Shifts in trade policy settings and broader economic conditions can affect livestock producers through costs and financing conditions while also influencing consumer purchasing power and substitution across animal protein sources, especially where demand growth is already moderate. Trade policy and sanitary measures add another layer of risk, as non-tariff requirements, disease-related restrictions and evolving sustainability standards can increase trade costs and compliance burdens for exporters. (FAO, 2024[33]). Although supplier diversification can improve resilience, repeated trade disruptions can raise adjustment costs and reduce predictability in global meat trade.
Demand-side uncertainty is also influenced by evolving consumer preferences and policy discussions related to health, environment and animal welfare. Although survey-based evidence suggests growing intentions to reduce meat consumption for health or environmental reasons, these intentions are only partially reflected in observed dietary behaviour. Relative prices, income constraints and convenience remain dominant determinants of protein choice, limiting the pace of structural demand shifts (Kappes et al., 2023[29]). If consumer behaviour differs from the assumptions of this Outlook, the projections would change accordingly.
Taken together, these uncertainties highlight a meat sector increasingly exposed to interacting biological, weather-related, regulatory and economic risks. While the Outlook baseline reflects average expected developments under current assumptions, actual outcomes will exhibit greater volatility. Strengthening biosecurity, improving resilience to extreme weather shocks and maintaining transparent, rules-based trade frameworks remain key to mitigating downside risks over the medium term.
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