OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035

7. Fish and other aquatic products for human consumption

Abstract

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world fish and aquatic products markets for the period 2026-2035. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world fish and other aquatic products markets over the next decade.

7.1. Projection highlights

By 2035, global consumption of aquatic animal products for food is projected to rise faster than non-food uses, driven mainly by Asia. Consumption in Europe is projected to experience a modest decline.

Global apparent per capita consumption of aquatic animal foods is projected to rise, reaching 21.9 kg live weight equivalent (lwe) by 2035, up from 21.4 kg in 2023‑2025. Africa and Europe are the only regions where per capita consumption is projected to decline slightly.

Aquaculture will continue to drive the expansion of global fisheries and aquaculture production, which is projected to reach 216 million tonnes (Mt) by 2035.

Global exports of aquatic animal foods will continue to grow but at a slower pace than in the previous decade, with Africa being the only region where exports are not projected to increase, reflecting increased domestic demand.

Global prices of fish and other aquatic products are all projected to decline in real terms by 2035 due to slower growth in demand. However, slower aquaculture production growth and limited capture fisheries expansion are expected to moderate the extent of price declines.

Fisheries and aquaculture face numerous uncertainties from changing environmental conditions, shifting policies and regulations, and evolving consumer demand. Resilience will depend on innovation, adaptation and effective management, with impacts varying across regions.

7.2. Current market trends

Global fisheries and aquaculture production rose to about 199 Mt in 2025, driven primarily by aquaculture growth, especially in People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”). Capture fisheries expanded more moderately, with increases recorded in most regions.1

The volume of global trade in aquatic animal food products remained broadly stable in 2025, with lower imports in Europe partly offset by increases in Africa and the Americas. Fishmeal exports continued to increase for the second year in a row in 2025, mainly driven by higher exports from Peru.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Fish Price Index rose by 3.5% over 2025, reaching its lowest point in July before rebounding in the second half of the year. This marked the first annual increase since the 2022 price surge.

7.3. Market projections

7.3.1. Consumption

Asia is projected to account for most of the additional consumption of fish and other aquatic products

Fisheries and aquaculture production is used predominantly for human consumption. While a share is diverted to non-food uses, mainly to produce fishmeal and fish oil, this portion remains limited, with 90% of production projected to be consumed as food by 2035, compared to 89% in the base period (average of 2023-2025). Aquaculture will play an increasing role in meeting this demand, accounting for 62% of products destined for human consumption, compared to 59% in the base period.

Focusing on food uses, global demand for aquatic animal foods is projected to increase by 12% over the next decade, largely driven by population growth. Total apparent consumption is expected to reach 194 Mt lwe by 2035, an increase of 20 Mt compared with the base period. Total apparent consumption is projected to expand in all regions except Europe, where modest declines in both per capita consumption and population will constrain growth. Asia will remain the main source of additional demand and is projected to account for 75% of global apparent consumption by 2035, with China alone representing 39% of the global total. Africa, meanwhile, is expected to record the fastest growth, with consumption rising by 20% by 2035, nearly double the global average growth rate.

Global per capita apparent consumption of aquatic animal foods is projected to average 21.9 kg lwe by 2035, up 2.6% from 21.4 kg in the base period (Figure 7.1). This represents a much slower increase than in the previous decade, when per capita consumption grew by 12%. Per capita consumption is expected to rise in Asia, the Americas and Oceania but decline in Africa and Europe. In Africa, per capita consumption is projected to fall from 9.5 kg in the base period to 9.0 kg by 2035, largely because population growth is expected to outpace increases in supply. While consumption per capita is projected to rise in North Africa, the decline is expected to be particularly pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa. This trend is especially concerning given that the region already has the highest prevalence of undernourishment globally and aquatic animal foods provide a higher share of animal protein intake than the global average.

Fishmeal and fish oil are projected to represent 86% of the 21 Mt lwe of fish and other aquatic products used for non-food uses in 2035. The remainder will serve other non‑food uses such as ornamental fish, fingerlings and fry, bait, pharmaceutical inputs, or as direct feed for farming. By 2035, 85% of fishmeal and 54% of fish oil is projected to be consumed as aquaculture feeds. While fishmeal is primarily used by the aquaculture sector, the faster growth of aquaculture relative to fishmeal production globally is driving increased use of oilseed meals in aquaculture feed. By 2035, oilseed meal use in aquaculture is projected to rise by 26%, reaching 11 Mt, while fishmeal use is expected to increase by 20% to 5.3 Mt. China will remain the dominant consumer of fishmeal, accounting for 43% of the total by 2035. In contrast, fish oil consumption is less concentrated, with the European Union, Norway and Chile together projected to account for 41% of global use.

7.3.2. Production

Aquaculture continues to drive global fisheries and aquaculture production growth despite slowing expansion

Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to increase from 194 Mt lwe in the base period to 216 Mt by 2035. Although total volume continues to grow, the rate and absolute increase are slowing, with production projected to expand by 11% (+22 Mt) over the next decade, compared with a 24% (+38 Mt) rise in the previous decade (Figure 7.2). Aquaculture remains the main driver of growth, even as its expansion decelerates, and is projected to account for 56% of global fisheries and aquaculture production by 2035, up from 53% in the base period.

Global aquaculture production is projected to reach 121 Mt by 2035, a 18% increase from the base period, compared with 51% growth in the previous decade. The slowdown reflects diminishing opportunities for expansion at the global level, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the limited availability of new, high-quality sites for production. Asia will continue to dominate, accounting for 88% of global aquaculture production, though its +17% growth rate is expected to be among the slowest globally, along with Europe (+14%). In contrast, Africa and the Americas are projected to experience the fastest expansion, with growth rates of +37% and +24%, respectively. China will remain the largest aquaculture producer, with its share slightly decreasing to 55%, reflecting faster growth in other producers such as India and Viet Nam. Despite growth occurring across nearly all countries and regions, the overall distribution of aquaculture production will remain highly concentrated in Asia.

Across all major farmed species groups, aquaculture production is projected to continue rising, though growth will be slower over the next decade than in the previous one. Species group shares are expected to remain broadly stable, with minor changes: carp’s share is set to decline slightly to 32% as demand shifts toward a wider variety of species while other freshwater species, shrimps and prawns, and tilapia are projected to increase modestly (Figure 7.3). By 2035, molluscs are projected to account for 19% of global aquaculture production, other freshwater and diadromous species such as catfish and pangas for 17%, shrimps and prawns for 10%, tilapia for 7%, and salmonoids for 4%.

Global capture fisheries production is projected to reach 95 Mt by 2035, representing an increase of 3.4% relative to the base period, compared with 2.5% growth in the previous decade. Growth will be driven by improved fisheries management, technological advances, and reductions in discards and waste, though short-term dips may occur, such as the anticipated El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in 2027 and 2031, which are projected to reduce catches in South America by about 2 Mt. Africa and the Americas are projected to be responsible for most of the additional production, with growth of 9% and 7%, respectively, over the Outlook period. Asia is projected to experience slower growth than the global average, at 0.9% over the same period. Nevertheless, Asia will continue to account for just over half of global capture fisheries production by 2035, with the Americas, Europe, Africa and Oceania following with 19%, 15%, 12% and 2%, respectively. China will remain the top producing country, contributing approximately 14% to global capture fisheries production by 2035.

Over the next decade, the quantity of capture fisheries production reduced to fishmeal and fish oil is projected to increase by 6.0%, a much slower pace than the 13% growth observed over the previous decade. By 2035, the volumes used for producing fishmeal and fish oil are projected to fluctuate between 16.0 Mt and 18.2 Mt, influenced by ENSO variability. Global production of fishmeal is projected to reach 6.3 Mt by 2035, representing a 16% increase compared to the base period, which was particularly low due to a sharp fall in Peruvian fishmeal production in 2023. The slower growth in volumes used for fishmeal production also reflects the rising use of by-products and processing residues, which are expected to account for 30% of total fishmeal output by 2035, up from 25% in the base period. Peru will remain the largest producer of fishmeal, accounting for 18% of global output by 2035. Global production of fish oil is projected to reach 1.5 Mt by 2035, up 6% from the base period. This slower growth reflects slower gains in the use of by‑products, which are projected to remain stable at 54% by 2035. Chile is projected to remain the largest producer of fish oil over the outlook period.

7.3.3. Trade

Aquatic trade is projected to expand more slowly, with Asia remaining dominant

International trade will continue to play a critical role in the sector, however growth in aquatic trade has been slower than the expansion of fisheries and aquaculture production over the last two decades and is projected to remain so over the coming decade. Rising consumption; improvements in storage, preservation and transportation technologies; and the continued liberalisation of trade policies have supported the development of complex global supply chains. By 2035, around 35% of total fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to enter international trade (31% excluding intra-EU trade). Part of this trade reflects repeated exchanges of products at different stages of processing among countries.

Global exports of aquatic animal foods are projected to reach 47.5 Mt lwe by 2035, an increase of 5.7% compared with the base period. This represents a clear slowdown relative to the 15% growth recorded during the previous decade. This deceleration reflects several factors, including high transport costs, slower expansion of capture fisheries and aquaculture production, and a growing preference in some key countries to meet domestic demand through local production.

Asia will remain the largest exporter of aquatic animal foods over the Outlook period, accounting for 49% of global exports, followed by Europe (22%), the Americas (20%), Africa (6%) and Oceania (3%) (Figure 7.4). Africa is the only region in which exports are projected to decline (-4.0%) over the next decade, reflecting strong domestic demand. China and Viet Nam are projected to account for 17% and 11%, respectively, of global trade by 2035.

Asia will also continue to be the largest importing region, accounting for 44% of global imports of aquatic animal foods by 2035. This occurs despite declining import volumes in China, where domestic production is increasingly oriented toward local consumer preferences amid a shrinking population. In contrast, Africa is expected to record the strongest import growth (+20%), followed by the Americas (+9%), reflecting rising demand which cannot be met by domestic production.

Global fishmeal exports are projected to increase by 10% relative to the base period, reaching 4.0 Mt (product weight) by 2035. Peru is expected to remain by far the leading exporter and to record one of the strongest growth rates over the Outlook period, largely reflecting a rebound from the unusually low export levels observed in 2023, i.e. the first year of the base period. China is set to further consolidate its position as the dominant global importer, accounting for 53% of total fishmeal imports by 2035, up from 49% in the base period, driven by increasing feed demand from its expanding aquaculture sector. Consequently, import volumes are projected to decline in several traditional European markets.

Fish oil exports are projected to grow by about 16% by 2035 to 1.2 Mt (product weight). The Americas (led by Peru and Chile), Europe (primarily the European Union and Norway) and Asia (notably Viet Nam) are projected to remain the main exporting regions, accounting for 35%, 31% and 29% of global fish oil exports, respectively, by 2035. On the import side, Europe, led by the European Union and Norway, will remain the top importing region, accounting for 47% of global fish oil imports by 2035.

7.3.4. Prices

Real prices of fish and other aquatic products are expected to decline, which will be mitigated by a slowing of production growth

Overall, real prices of all fish and other aquatic products are expected to decline over the projection period, even where nominal prices are broadly flat or still edging up. Moreover, the decline in real prices is expected to be larger in the projection period than the previous decade across all products except fishmeal (Figure 7.5). The evolution of prices is consistent with the continued increase in production that is expected over the projection period, in all groups.

The real aquaculture price is expected to fall 15% over the projection period compared to the 2023-2025 average, which is a bigger decline than was seen in the previous decade (-6.4%). Overall, aquaculture prices grew rapidly after 2000 but have declined since their peak in 2019. The relatively rapid decline is expected to continue until 2027 before stabilising somewhat in the rest of the projection period. This price trend is consistent with the supply Outlook: world aquaculture production was 51% higher in 2025 than the 2013-2015 average, but is projected to be only 18% higher in 2035 than the 2023‑2025 average. Production growth continues to push real aquaculture prices down, but the slowdown in aquaculture output growth compared with the previous decade is expected to mitigate the rate of decline after 2027.

In real terms, capture fisheries prices are projected to decline 14% below the 2023‑2025 average by 2035. This is a greater price decline than was seen in the previous decade (-8.7%) and is driven by increased production growth in the projection period (3.4% compared to 2.5% in the previous decade). The broader price series of traded fish products is weaker still with the real price falling by 22% below the 2023-2025 average over the projection period. This suggests that the combined effect of continuing aquaculture and capture growth and ongoing competition from other protein sources (notably chicken and pig meat) is putting downward pressure on fish prices.

Fish oil and fishmeal are best interpreted together because both depend heavily on the marine-ingredient market. In the fish oil market, the 2023-2024 spike reflected reduced Peruvian anchoveta availability under ENSO-related disruption, while the recovery in Peruvian catches helped normalise market conditions by 2025. Consequently, fish oil prices peaked before 2025 and are expected to return historic trends over the projection period, with the real fish oil price projected to decline 16% by 2035. Fishmeal prices follow a similar trajectory, albeit with smaller variations than fish oil. Overall, the real prices of fishmeal are expected to decline 10% over the projection period. The downward pressure on fishmeal prices is the result of competition from other protein meals – which are projected to become relatively cheaper up to 2035 – and the slowing of aquaculture production growth reducing demand growth. However, despite the overall decline, prices are expected to rise slowly after 2030, albeit with some volatility from ENSO-linked production impacts.

7.4. Risks and uncertainties

Several sources of uncertainty should be considered when interpreting the projection results, namely the ongoing impacts of fisheries and aquaculture management and policies, weather variability, disturbances to international trade, and multilateral governance under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Fisheries Subsidies Agreement (FSA) and the Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ). All these factors will individually and collectively impact patterns of production, trade and consumption of fish and other aquatic products over the projection period, but the nature and extent of these impacts is hard to predict.

While the proportion of fish stocks that are overfished or that fail to meet management standards has been increasing over time at a global scale, the global figures hide some important regional variations (OECD, 2025[1]; Sharma et al., 2025[2]). In many areas, there is considerable investment in improving management systems and rehabilitating fish stocks that have historically been overfished and, consequently, the production from capture fisheries is expected to increase over the projection period. However, the speed with which improved management leads to increased fishing opportunities is highly variable and hard to predict, with some species recovering much faster than expected (e.g. Pacific blue‑fin tuna, Thunnus orientalis) while others will recover much slower (e.g. Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua (Blöcker et al., 2023[3]). Consequently, this creates uncertainty around the speed and extent of capture production growth and the downstream impacts on prices and trade.

Domestic policy developments add uncertainty to aquaculture production projections and, consequently, to price and trade outcomes. First, the implementation of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will impact aquaculture production, given the country’s importance to global production; however, the nature and extent of these impacts are uncertain. Second, relevant policy changes in other major producers (e.g. Chile, Indonesia, Norway and Thailand) could impact aquaculture production during the projection period.

Weather variability is expected to affect fisheries and aquaculture, but uncertainty remains regarding its impact on aquatic production. Key drivers include more frequent and intense extreme weather events, marine heatwaves, ocean warming and acidification, sea level rise, and shifting precipitation patterns (IPCC, 2023[4]; FAO, 2022[5]; Barange et al., 2018[6]). These pressures can disrupt production systems in the short to medium term and alter ecosystem productivity, species distribution and recruitment dynamics. Projections indicate more frequent and intense extreme El Niño and La Niña events. This may result in stronger rainfall variability, deeper droughts and shifts in precipitation patterns, further affecting marine and inland aquatic systems and associated production (IPCC, 2023[4]; FAO, 2024[7]). Weather variability also introduces policy-related uncertainty, as measures to reduce emissions and adapt to impacts may change how fisheries and aquaculture operate, including the species exploited, fishing and fish farming infrastructure and technology, the structure of fleets, and locations of production.

The global governance environment also introduces uncertainty into the projections presented in this chapter. Aquatic products are highly traded commodities, with the different stages of the value chain (production, processing and consumption) often located in different countries, making the sector susceptible to changes in the global trading environment. Emerging tensions around international trading regimes and challenges to the cross-border movement of aquatic products, and the implementation pace of new trade agreements could significantly impact trade, prices, and the distribution of production and consumption. The complex nature of international aquatic trade combined with the current context of global trade governance creates uncertainty in the projections, especially given the scale and speed of changes in recent years. Further (and relatedly), changes in the global economy, such as recession, could impact patterns of consumption of aquatic foods, especially the high value and luxury products, which also tend to be highly traded, introducing further uncertainty in the projections.

Finally, two specific international policy processes may impact fisheries production and trade over the coming decade, namely the WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement and the BBNJ Agreement. The WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, which entered into force in September 2025, establishes for the first time binding multilateral disciplines on subsidies granted to marine fisheries. It also mandates a second round of negotiations to develop more comprehensive subsidy disciplines, to be concluded within four years. Should that process not be completed within the stipulated time frame, the agreement may be terminated, or WTO members could decide collectively on how to proceed. Given that this deadline falls within the projection period, the pace and outcome of those negotiations may affect how global aquatic production and trade, including its main players, evolve over time. The BBNJ Agreement could also be important to global fisheries, despite not directly addressing fisheries in the text of the agreement itself. Instead, the uncertainty for the projections comes from how the BBNJ Agreement interacts with and impacts existing governance mechanisms for high-seas fisheries (e.g. regional fisheries management organisations/arrangements). While the BBNJ Agreement will influence how fisheries operate in areas beyond national jurisdiction, the interpretation and operationalisation of its provisions are still evolving and as such it cannot be discounted when interpreting the projection results (FAO, 2024[8]).

References

[6] Barange, M. et al. (eds.) (2018), “Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: Synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options”, FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Papers, No. 627, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/i9705en.

[3] Blöcker, A. et al. (2023), “Regime shift dynamics, tipping points and the success of fisheries management”, Scientific Reports, Vol. 13/1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-27104-y.

[8] FAO (2024), Fisheries and the BBNJ Agreement: A Guide: The Agreement Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement), Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd7986en.

[7] FAO (2024), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024: Blue Transformation in Action, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd0683en.

[5] FAO (2022), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2022: Towards Blue Transformation, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0461en.

[4] IPCC (2023), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core writing team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.

[1] OECD (2025), OECD Review of Fisheries 2025, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/560cd8fc-en.

[2] Sharma, R. et al. (eds.) (2025), “Review of the state of world marine fishery resources – 2025”, FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Papers, No. 721, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd5538en.

Note

← 1.  The term “fish and other aquatic products” refers to fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators and aquatic plants