Jasmin Thomas
More Effective Social Protection for Stronger Economic Growth
Main Findings from the 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey
Abstract
This chapter explores perceptions of social and economic risks using data from the 2024 Risks that Matter (RTM) Survey, which includes over 27 000 respondents from 27 OECD countries. Risks relating to geopolitics, health and finances are top concerns in both the short term and long term. This chapter also explores perceptions of digitalisation and its potential impact on labour markets. Results suggest that respondents are more likely to anticipate positive impacts from advances in technology (e.g. work-life balance, enhanced safety), but many workers predict negative impacts, such as job loss and skill incompatibility.
Geopolitical risks are top of mind across 27 OECD countries, with over 75% of respondents to the 2024 Risks that Matter (RTM) Survey reporting they are worried about geopolitical risks in the next couple of years. Risks relating to health, such as access to good-quality healthcare and the risk of illness and disability, remain top five concerns in nearly all countries, both when looking at the next year or two and when looking beyond the next ten years.
Financial security is a prominent worry for many people in OECD countries, with most respondents indicating they are concerned about not being able to cover all expenses and make ends meet in the next year or two. Almost three in four respondents indicate that financial security in old age is a long-term concern.
A majority of people believe that advances in technology will have positive impacts on labour markets in the next five years – such as improving work-life balance, reducing or eliminating undesirable job tasks and increasing workplace safety. At the same time, many workers predict negative labour market impacts, such as being replaced by a robot, artificial intelligence (AI) or a person on an internet platform and inadequacy of skills.
Concern about labour market changes is fairly evenly spread across workers, with very little difference by level of educational attainment and similar levels of concern across most industries.
The 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (Box 1.2) interviewed 27 000 people across 27 OECD countries about their social and economic concerns, how well they think their country’s social protection systems addresses those concerns, and what they would like their government to do going forward. Several prominent concerns emerge both in the short and the long term across OECD countries, including geopolitical risks (e.g. war or terrorism), health-related risks (e.g. illness, disability, access to healthcare) and financial security (e.g. meeting expenses, financial security after retirement). Recent and ongoing advancements in robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are generating significant optimism but also concern about changes to the world of work, including potential job losses and changing skill needs.
Looking ahead to the next year or two, the top concern across the 27 OECD countries participating in the RTM Survey is geopolitical risk, identified by 77% of all respondents. Israel posts the highest levels of concern (88%) (Figure 1.1 and Annex A), but in eight other countries – Spain, Portugal, Türkiye, Italy, Austria, Greece, Germany and Lithuania – over 80% of respondents express concern about geopolitical risks. And even in the country with the lowest share – Korea – well over half of respondents are worried about geopolitical risks (64%).1
As in previous waves of the RTM Survey, accessing good-quality healthcare, becoming ill or disabled, and making ends meet are top worries for respondents, with a majority of respondents expressing that they are somewhat or very concerned about each of these risks (Figure 1.1 and Annex A). At the country level, becoming ill or disabled ranks as a top five concern in all RTM countries, while accessing good-quality healthcare is in the top five concerns for nearly all RTM countries and making ends meet is a top five concern in over half of all RTM countries (Annex A).
Climate change – a new response option – is also top of mind, with 68% of all respondents reporting this as a concern in the next year or two (Figure 1.1 and Annex A). Portugal, Greece and Italy report the highest levels of concern, with over 80% of respondents indicating they are somewhat or very concerned.2 In all but four countries – Estonia, Israel, Latvia and Poland – more than 60% of respondents note they are concerned.
Top five social and economic risks in the next year or two, share (%) of respondents who are somewhat or very concerned, by country, 2024
Note: RTM‑27 is an unweighted average of the 27 countries participating in the RTM survey in 2024. ↗ indicates that the data is sorted according to this series in ascending order. Respondents were asked: “Thinking about the next year or two, how concerned are you about each of the following: (a) Becoming ill or disabled, (b) Losing a job or self-employment income, (c) Not being able to find/maintain adequate housing, (d) Not being able to pay all expenses and make ends meet, (e) Not being able to access good-quality childcare or education for your children (or young members of your family), (f) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for elderly family members, (g) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for young or working-age family members with an illness or disability, (h) Being the victim of crime or violence, (i) Having to give up your job to care for children, elderly relatives, or relatives with illness or disability, (j) Accessing good-quality healthcare, (k) Climate change and (l) Geopolitical risks (e.g. war or terrorism).” Response options for each of the items were: “Not at all concerned,” “Not so concerned,” “Somewhat concerned,” “Very concerned,” and “Can’t choose / Not applicable.” Response items (a) through (l) were randomly rotated. The figure shows the top five ranked according to the RTM‑27 average share of respondents who are somewhat or very concerned. The five series are sorted according to the RTM‑27 average.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
In 22 of 27 OECD countries, a majority of respondents are concerned about not being able to pay all expenses and make ends meet in the next year or two. Respondents are most concerned in Greece (84%), Chile (80%) and Mexico (77%) (Figure 1.1 and Annex A). These worries correspond, cross-nationally, with reported emergency savings. In countries where respondents are more concerned about making ends meet, respondents are also less likely to agree that they and their family maintain sufficient emergency savings for three months of living (Figure 1.2).
Note: RTM‑27 is an unweighted average. Here and throughout the report, GBR refers to the whole of the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland. See Figure 1.1 for notes on the question related to “concerns about not being able to pay all expenses and make ends meet” (y-axis). For the OECD-average x-axis values, respondents were asked to indicate the degree to which they agree or disagree with the following statement: “My family and I maintain at least three months’ income as emergency savings.” Response options were: “Strongly disagree,” “Disagree,” “Neither agree nor disagree,” “Agree,” “Strongly agree,” “Can’t choose.” The figure refers to the share of respondents who “agree” or “strongly agree.”
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
Many respondents are concerned about their own and their family members’ access to long-term care (LTC) – likely reflecting that population ageing is going to put major pressure on LTC systems (OECD, 2024[1]). Looking at the next year or two, specifically, an average of 54% of respondents indicate that they are concerned about accessing good-quality LTC for elderly family members. This rate rises to 61% when people think about caregiving for elderly family members in the next decade, and 65% worry about LTC for themselves.
Share (%) of respondents who are concerned about accessing good quality long-term care beyond the next ten years, by country, 2024
Note: RTM‑27 is an unweighted average. Respondents were asked “Looking beyond the next ten years, how concerned are you about the following: (a) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for yourself, (b) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for elderly family members, (c) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for young or working-age family members with an illness or disability.” Response options were: “Not at all concerned,” “Not so concerned,” “Somewhat concerned,” “Very concerned,” and “Can’t choose / Not applicable.” The figure refers to the share of respondents who are “somewhat concerned” or “very concerned.”
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
Looking beyond the next ten years, a high share of respondents – 79% – again say they are somewhat or very concerned about geopolitical risks, making it the top concern, on average, among a list of 13 items (Figure 1.4 and Annex A). In all 27 of the surveyed OECD countries, at least 70% of respondents indicated geopolitical risks as a concern.
Consistent with previous waves of the RTM Survey, financial security in old age is a top worry in the long-term. On average, 72% of respondents indicated they are somewhat or very concerned about not being financially secure in old age. Concern was highest in Chile (90%), Mexico (87%), Greece (85%), Portugal (85%), Spain (83%) and Italy (80%). Even in Denmark – which has the lowest level of concern – nearly half (49%) worry about their finances in old age.
71% of all respondents report that they are somewhat or very concerned about accessing good-quality healthcare. In all RTM countries, over 50% of respondents expressed concern, with Chile (90%), Greece (89%) and Spain (87%) at the top of the ranking.
Share (%) of respondents who are somewhat or very concerned about selected social and economic risks beyond the next ten years, by country, 2024
Note: RTM‑27 is an unweighted average. Respondents were asked “Looking beyond the next ten years, how concerned are you about the following: (a) Not being as well-off and financially secure as your parents and/or that you had hoped to be, (b) Your children (or young members of your family) not being as well-off and financially secure as you are, (c) Becoming ill or disabled, (d) Not having the right skills and knowledge to work in a secure and well-paid job, (e) Not being financially secure in old age, (f) Not being able to find/maintain adequate housing, (g) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for yourself, (h) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for elderly family members, (i) Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for young or working-age family members with an illness or disability, (j) Accessing good-quality healthcare, (k) Climate change, (l) Geopolitical risks (e.g. war or terrorism) and (m) Population ageing.” Response options for each of the 13 items were: “Not at all concerned,” “Not so concerned,” “Somewhat concerned,” “Very concerned,” and “Can’t choose / Not applicable.” Response items (a) through (m) were randomly rotated. The figure shows the top five ranked according to the RTM‑27 average share of respondents who are somewhat or very concerned. The five series are sorted according to the RTM‑27 average.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
Remarkable advancements in robotics and AI are revolutionising the world of work. AI, especially, has made striking progress in areas such as image and speech recognition, natural language processing, translation, reading comprehension, computer programming, and predictive analytics (OECD, 2024[1]). These developments have the potential to positively affect the labour market by improving work-life balance, increasing workplace safety and reducing undesirable tasks. At the same time, technological progress has sparked concerns about skill and/or job displacement (OECD, 2024[1]).
When thinking about technological change, people tend to believe that positive impacts are more likely than negative impacts in the next five years. For example, 57% of (self-reported) workers believe technology will help make their job and their working hours more compatible with their private life (i.e. improve work-life balance), 53% think that technology will make their job less boring, repetitive, stressful or mentally demanding (i.e. reduce or eliminate undesirable job tasks), and 48% believe that technology will make their job less dangerous or physically demanding (i.e. increase workplace safety) (Figure 1.5).
Share (%) of respondents who predict selected impacts from digitalisation over the next five years, by country, 2024
Note: RTM‑27 is an unweighted average. Respondents were asked “How likely do you think it is that the following will happen to your job (or job opportunities) over the next five years? (a) My job will be replaced by a robot, (b) My job will be taken over by a person coming from another country, (c) My job will be taken over by an artificial intelligence (AI) tool like ChatGPT, (d) My job will be moved to a different country, (e) My job will be replaced by a person providing a similar service on an internet platform, (f) I will lose my job because I am not good enough with new technology or because I will be replaced by someone with better technological skills, (g) Technology will help my job and working hours become more compatible with my private life, (h) Technology will help my job become less dangerous or physically demanding, (i) Technology will help my job become less boring, repetitive, stressful or mentally demanding.” Response items (a) through (i) were randomly rotated. Response options were: “Very unlikely,” “Unlikely,” “Likely,” “Very likely,” “Can’t choose.” Estimates refer to the combined share of “Likely” and “Very likely.” The scenario with the lowest likelihood value – “My job will be moved to a different country,” reported by 28% of selected respondents – was removed for clarity of presentation. This question was only asked to those who reported that they were in paid work or temporarily away from paid work. The nine series are sorted according to the RTM‑27 average.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
There are important and significant differences across countries. In Korea, for example, 72% believe that technology will improve their work-life balance, 75% believe technology will reduce or eliminate undesirable job tasks, and 75% believe technology will increase workplace safety. By contrast, in France, only 48% feel technology will improve work-life balance; in Lithuania, only 39% think technology will reduce or eliminate undesirable job tasks; and in Austria, only 30% feel technology will increase workplace safety.
While positive impacts are seen as more likely, on average, many respondents nevertheless predict negative labour market impacts. About one‑third believe their job will be taken over by a person providing a similar service on an internet platform and about one‑third believe their job will be taken over by AI. Such perceptions vary significantly across OECD countries. In Türkiye, for example, 49% of workers feel that their job will be replaced by a robot in the next five years, while only 19% in Austria feel the same. In Korea, 49% believe that their job will be replaced by someone providing a similar service on an internet platform, but only 22% in Estonia report the same beliefs.
Share (%) of respondents who think AI is likely to impact society in specific ways over the next five to ten years, by country, 2024
Note: RTM‑27 is an unweighted average. Respondents were asked “Thinking about the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) in the labour market, how likely do you think the following are in [country] over the next 5 to 10 years? (a) AI technology will lead to a rise in income inequality, (b) AI technology will allow most people to have more free time, (c) AI technology will allow most people to have less boring, repetitive, stressful or mentally demanding jobs, (d) AI technology will create more jobs, (e) AI technology will lead to higher levels of unemployment, (f) AI technology will lead to more surveillance at work, (g) AI technology will require many people to re‑train for different jobs.” Response items (a) through (g) were randomly rotated. Response options were: “Very unlikely,” “Unlikely,” “Likely,” “Very likely,” “Can’t choose.” Estimates refer to the combined share of “Likely” and “Very likely.” The seven series are sorted according to the RTM‑27 average.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
When surveying all respondents and looking beyond individual impacts to the economy at large, there is a similar recognition of the potential for both positive and negative impacts of AI. Across countries, for example, 68% of respondents believe that AI technology will lead to more unemployment (Figure 1.6). At the same time, 40% believe that AI technology will create more jobs. Although at first glance these may seem contradictory, they are not necessarily. AI technology will replace or change the skill requirements for certain jobs – which may increase unemployment – while simultaneously leading to the creation of new jobs in different industries and occupations. On a net basis, the creation of new jobs could be greater than the destruction of old jobs – with the challenge to ensure that unemployed individuals are connected to (and trained for) the new jobs. Indeed, 79% of respondents to the RTM survey believe that within the next five years AI will require significant re-training, with rates as high as 88% in Israel.
Worries about changing labour markets are fairly evenly shared across workers with different educational attainment and skill levels (Figure 1.7). On average across countries, 33% of respondents with a low or medium level of education believe that their job will be replaced by a person providing a similar service on an internet platform in the next five years. This compares to 34% of people with a high level of education – a mere 1-percentage-point difference. This stands in contrast to results from the 2022 RTM Survey, which found that high-education people were 5 percentage points more likely to be concerned than low-education people about their job being replaced (OECD, 2024[1]).
There was a similar closure of gaps in perceptions of job loss due to a lack of technological skills. In the 2022 RTM, highly educated individuals were 3 percentage points more likely to believe they would lose their job because they are not good enough with new technology or because they will be replaced by someone with better technological skills. In the 2024 RTM Survey, low educated individuals were 1 percentage point more concerned.
The closure (and in some cases reversal) of these gaps in just two years highlights not only the rapid pace of technological change, but also the increasingly shared view that all workers, regardless of profile (e.g. skills, earnings, tenure), could be at risk of job loss or displacement in changing labour markets.
Share (%) of respondents who think digitalisation is likely to negatively impact their job in specific ways over the next five years, by educational attainment, RTM‑27 average, 2024
Note: All estimates are unweighted averages across RTM‑27 countries. See Figure 1.5. Respondents are classified according to their highest level of educational attainment. High education refers to tertiary (e.g. Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctorate), while Low or medium refers to below tertiary.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
There is also a surprising amount of similarity across industries in perceptions of the four potential negative impacts – replacement by a robot, replacement by AI, replacement by a person on an internet platform, and inadequacy of skills. Indeed, in 11 out of 19 industries, between 30% and 40% of workers anticipate that replacement by a robot is likely or very likely in the next five years. There is only one industry that shows notably higher shares – mining and quarrying (53%) – and only two industries that show notably lower shares – human health and social work activities (17%) and public administration and defence (19%). A similar pattern emerges for the other three outcomes – replacement by AI, replacement by a person on an internet platform and inadequacy of skills.
Share (%) of respondents who think digitalisation is likely to negatively impact their job in specific ways over the next five years, by industry, RTM‑27 average, 2024
Note: All estimates are weighted averages across RTM‑27 countries. See Figure 1.5.
Source: 2024 OECD Risks that Matter Survey (https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html).
The OECD Risks that Matter (RTM) Survey is a multi-country survey assessing people’s concerns about the social and economic risks they face, their perceptions of their country’s social protection system, and their preferences for social policy going forward. The RTM Survey is the world’s most comprehensive ongoing survey on perceptions of social protection.
The RTM Survey interviews nationally representative samples of 1 000 respondents in participating OECD countries and was conducted in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. The 2024 wave, in the field in November and December, surveyed over 27 000 people aged 18‑64 years in 27 OECD countries: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Türkiye, the United Kingdom and the United States. Countries opted in to participate in the RTM Survey.
Consistent with similar surveys, the RTM Survey was implemented using non-probability samples recruited via online panels and random-dial telephone calls. The survey contractor was Bilendi Limited (formerly Respondi) and respondents were paid a nominal sum for each survey. Sampling was conducted with quotas for gender, age group, education level, income level, and employment status to reach representative samples. Survey weights are used to correct for any under- or over-representation based on these five criteria, with a target and weighted sample of 1 000 respondents per country. For details on the OECD RTM Survey, including background details on questionnaire development, survey implementation, and more (see Thomas, Frey and Clarke (2025[2])).
References
[1] OECD (2024), Megatrends and the Future of Social Protection: Strategies, Technologies and Data Advances in OECD Countries, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6c9202e8-en.
[2] Thomas, J., V. Frey and C. Clarke (2025), “Survey design and technical documentation supporting the OECD Risks that Matter Survey”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5eebe551-en.
[3] World Economic Forum (2025), Global Risks Report 2025, https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/.
← 1. Since geopolitical risks are a new response option in the 2024 RTM Survey, it is not possible to assess whether respondents’ level of concern has changed over time. But in the Global Risks Report 2025, respondents ranked state‑based armed conflict as the risk most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2025. Two years ago, state‑based armed conflict was overlooked as a leading two‑year risk (World Economic Forum, 2025[3]).
← 2. In the Global Risks Report, extreme weather events have risen rapidly over time to rank as one of or the most severe concerns over the next ten years (World Economic Forum, 2025[3]). As the effects of climate change and environmental degradation continue to take a toll on populations, climate change will likely represent an ever-constant concern globally, including in RTM countries.