Managing Emerging Critical Risks

Executive summary

Across the globe, emerging critical risks—from extreme natural hazards and disruptive technologies to geopolitical shocks and transboundary health threats—are increasing in frequency, complexity, and unpredictability. These risks often expose gaps in conventional governance arrangements, with impacts spanning sectors and boundaries.

Addressing such challenges requires a shift in how governments identify, assess, and prepare for future shocks. Emerging critical risks demand anticipatory, adaptive, and co-ordinated responses that go beyond contingency planning processes for well-understood risks. Drawing on experiences from across countries and benchmarking national progress with that of international partners can help governments plot the course for improving their ability to anticipate emerging critical risks.

This report provides a synthesis of national approaches to managing emerging critical risks, drawing from case studies of Ireland, Israel, Korea, and the United States. Using a bespoke maturity model, it characterises how advanced the four OECD countries are in different aspects of managing emerging critical risks.

Key findings

• Emerging risks require new governance approaches. Emerging risks are often unprecedented and develop quickly, making it difficult to assess them with traditional models based on historic data. The report presents examples of institutional mandates, response structures and governance tools that have been used to co-ordinate information flows across public bodies. For example, Ireland uses horizon scanning with inputs from across government and active engagement with the public to capture diverse perspectives when identifying emerging critical risks. Korea has created a dedicated risk assessment centre providing a structured, forward-looking view that informs national and local planning.

• Countries are developing key capabilities. Across the OECD, governments are putting in place the necessary systems for identifying and assessing emerging critical risks. For example, Israel’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) works across government to clarify departmental responsibilities for risks, and Korea links risk analysis to investment planning and public reporting. Both countries also conduct exercises that help drive enhanced preparedness for these risks.

• Key elements of effective risk governance are emerging, including dedicated structures for foresight and risk analysis, mechanisms for cross-government co-ordination, integration with policy and budget processes, and collaboration with external partners. Israel uses AI and big data analysis and fosters academic collaboration to detect threats early; Korea engages in regular, structured assessments; and the United States is investing in more flexible, scenario-agnostic planning tools throughout the Department of Homeland Security and the wider Homeland Security Enterprise.

Main policy recommendations for strengthening emerging risk governance

• Use maturity models to assess national capabilities. Structured assessments can help governments understand where they stand across the seven steps of the OECD Framework on Managing Emerging Critical Risks.

• Embed emerging risk governance into national resilience architectures. Governments should integrate horizon scanning, risk analysis, and the implementation of required improvements into their institutional frameworks.

• Invest in foresight and early warning capabilities. Horizon scanning, futures thinking, and scientific advisory mechanisms need to be institutionalised as core government functions.

• Make emerging risk exercises routine. Scenario-based exercises should be used not only for known hazards, but for uncertain, low-probability threats. These exercises can reveal system interdependencies, test assumptions, and build agility.

• Develop strategic plans that are flexible and adaptive. Traditional, static contingency plans are not sufficient. Risk strategies should include multiple scenarios, regular updates, and built-in flexibility.

• Ensure political leadership and whole-of-government engagement. High-level leadership is critical to co-ordinate across silos and sustain commitment.

• Foster international learning and co-operation. No country is fully equipped to face emerging risks on its own. Shared frameworks, tools, and experiences can support mutual learning. The cross-country examples in this report highlight the value of structured dialogue and collaboration across OECD countries.

Conclusion

Emerging critical risks are not distant threats—they are present challenges that demand forward-looking, whole-of-government strategies. While the risk landscape is uncertain, governments are not starting from scratch. By institutionalising horizon scanning, building adaptive capabilities, and investing in strategic co-ordination, countries can move from reactive crisis management to proactive, future-oriented resilience. This requires commitment at the strategic level, and the tools to guide that commitment now exist.

By volunteering for the first case studies on the implementation of the OECD Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks, Israel, Ireland, Korea, and the United States have shown that practical steps are already being taken to address emerging critical risks and that meaningful progress is possible.