Managing Emerging Critical Risks

Annex A. Methodology

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse and assess how selected countries manage emerging critical risks, compared with the Framework for the Governance of Emerging Critical Risks as a guiding benchmark. By examining the practices and approaches of these countries, the study aims to:

• Understand Diverse Approaches: Explore the different methods and strategies employed by each country in identifying, assessing, and managing emerging critical risks, highlighting their insights and experiences.

• Evaluate Effectiveness: Assess the effectiveness of these practices in relation to the seven steps of the Framework, identifying strengths, challenges, and gaps in implementation.

• Identify Effective Practices: Highlight successful methodologies and practices that align with the Framework, providing examples that can serve as models for others.

• Inform Policy and Practice: Provide insights and recommendations that can inform policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders involved in risk management and resilience building, contributing to the enhancement of global risk governance.

• Enhance Understanding of Risk Governance: Contribute to the academic and practical understanding of how emerging critical risks can be effectively managed through structured frameworks and collaborative efforts.

Case Selection

The participating countries were largely self-selected among OECD Members participating gin the High-Level Risk Forum, though attention was given to ensuring a group with diverse characteristics such as geographical location, size, and governance system. Limiting factors were availability of officials and resources for the OECD to handle multiple concurrent studies.

Data Sources

The following sources of data were gathered from participating governments:

• Supplied Documents: National risk assessments, policy papers, legislative frameworks, memoranda, and strategy documents. A full list of the types of documents requested is included below. Countries submitted between 3 and 20 documents each.

• Online Documents: Supplementary information was sought online, to include official information in the public domain. Each case study was supplemented with at least one such document.

• Interviews: Semi-structured interviews with officials from relevant agencies (e.g. emergency management authorities, ministries of defense, health departments). An indicative interview protocol is included below. Each country participated with three or more interviewees, although requests not to be quoted resulted in a smaller number of interviews referred to in the report.

• Questionnaire Responses: Structured questionnaires sent to key stakeholders to gather standardised information. A copy of the questionnaire is included below. One questionnaire was submitted by each participating country.

Analysis And Criteria

The study employed a qualitative analysis. The analysis was structured around the seven steps of the Framework, evaluating each country's practices in relation to these steps. The case studies were analysed by mapping each country's practices against the Framework, identifying strengths, challenges, and gaps.

A full description of each practice and level in the maturity model is provided below.

During the preparation of this work the author used ChatGPT to brainstorm ideas, structure sections, and improve language and readability. After using this tool, the author reviewed and edited the content as needed and takes full responsibility for the content of the publication.

A draft of each case study was submitted to each country’s HLRF delegate for validation.

Limitations

The study is potentially limited by the following factors.

• Availability of data:

  • Limited quantities of publicly accessible information and the scope of the interviews conducted.

  • Confidentiality constraints meaning some areas, such as internal strategic planning processes, may not be fully represented.

  • Potential unconfirmed practices due to absence of evidence; this does not rule out the possibility that they are present in undocumented form.

  • Unreported practices due to documents still in production or awaiting declassification.

• Variances between countries:

  • Variability in the depth of information available for each country leading to differences in the scope of each case study.

  • Differing levels of government, particularly in federal or decentralised systems, leading to potentially relevant information falling outside the scope of the study.

• Possible biases or distortions:

  • Biases associated with self-reporting in interviews.

• Priming of participating countries due to prior knowledge of the Framework.

  • Language and interpretation differences, as many documents were machine-translated into English prior to analysis.

Maturity model level descriptions

Table A A.1. Identify emerging critical risks

1. Identify emerging critical risks
	Authorities and Systems	Knowledge and Capabilities	Responsibilities and People
Nascent	Processes for identifying emerging critical risks are occasional one-offs. No external engagement for knowledge gathering on emerging critical risks.	Tools for anticipating and managing emerging critical risk are absent or largely unused. Any identification is done through ad-hoc use of general information sources without specialised analytical tools.	Any background or training individuals have in futures methods is coincidental. Minimal direction or resources for integrating foresight into the risk management process.
Progressing	Processes for emerging risk identification exist in principle but are not fully systematic or comprehensive. Limited efforts are made to engage with external partners for risk identification, mainly on an ad-hoc basis or in response to specific events.	Tools are used to assist in risk identification but are not specialised to emerging critical risk. They may be adapted to emerging critical risk in some cases.	Individuals have received basic training in emerging risk identification techniques such as horizon scanning. Leadership acknowledges the need for identifying emerging risks but provides limited direction or resources for integrating foresight into the risk management process.
Established	Processes for identifying emerging risks are used regularly and are integrated into the overall risk management framework. There is active engagement in networks and systems for collaborative risk	Tools and software are used for risk identification and consultation, including horizon scanning tools and data analytics.	Individuals are regularly trained in risk identification techniques, including horizon scanning and strategic foresight. Leadership actively supports and prioritises the identification of emerging risks, providing resources and integrating it into strategic planning.
Leading	Processes for identifying emerging risks are systematic, regularly reviewed, and updated based on the latest methodologies and findings. The organisation is a leader in collaborative efforts for systemic risk identification, contributing to and benefiting from global risk identification networks and systems.	Tools are deployed for emerging risk identification and consultation, including experimentation with new tools such as AI and machine learning.	Individuals are often highly skilled in identifying emerging risks, with continuous training and development in relevant techniques. Leadership demonstrates a strong commitment to identifying emerging risks, with resources consistently allocated to support risk identification initiatives.
Pioneering	Processes for identifying emerging risks are systematic and incorporate feedback loops for continuous improvement. They are considered best practice and are emulated by others. The organisation actively supports international efforts to identify emerging risks, driving innovation and cooperation in global risk management practices.	Tools used are cutting edge, often setting the standard for others. These may include custom-made tools which serve as inspiration for others.	Individuals are involved in developing new methodologies for identifying emerging risks and disseminating findings in foresight and risk communities of practice. Leadership invests in research and development for emerging risk identification and encourage cross-sectoral and interdisciplinary approaches.

Table A A.2. Assess and share information about emerging critical risks

2. Assess and share information about emerging critical risks
	Authorities and Systems	Knowledge and Capabilities	Responsibilities and People
Nascent	Procedures for assessing emerging critical risks are unstructured or unclear. Ad hoc or decentralised mechanisms for information sharing with key stakeholders.	Use of basic tools for data collection and analysis for risk assessment. Technological infrastructure for sharing information about emerging risks is basic and outdated.	Ambiguity in responsibilities related to the assessment of emerging critical risks. Minimal collaboration or co-ordination with other government agencies, private sector or academia.
Progressing	A methodology for conducting the analysis has been developed, but it might not be consistent or applicable across all emerging risks. Formalised channels are in place for sharing risk-related information; however, not used consistently.	Use of more advanced analytical tools, although they might not be specialised to the assessment of emerging critical risks. Information sharing tools and platforms are more developed, information not regularly updated.	Responsibility for assessing emerging critical risks is assigned but not fully integrated into roles and responsibilities. Efforts made to raise awareness about emerging critical risks, limited training and engagement of key stakeholders.
Established	A comprehensive and structured methodology for the assessment of emerging critical risks is in place. Assessments are updated regularly. Robust communication channels and platforms are used for sharing information across government agencies, organisations and key stakeholders.	Use of data analytics platforms and horizon scanning tools that enable an in-depth assessment of future risks. Comprehensive information sharing tools and platforms are deployed to facilitate collaboration among stakeholders.	Roles and responsibilities of actors involved in assessing and sharing information about emerging critical risks are well-defined and understood. Developed culture of collaboration and cooperation among stakeholders
Leading	A comprehensive and structured methodology, which is continuously improved and evaluated, is in place for the assessment of emerging critical risks. Assessments are updated regularly. Advanced communication channels, shared understanding of emerging risks across all government and external stakeholders.	Advanced risk analytics tools and predictive modeling for in-depth analysis. Use of databases and platforms that are continuously updated with newly identified risks, regular communication with key stakeholders.	Prioritisation of risks based on continuous dialogue with key stakeholders, transparent and accountable leadership. Ongoing training and development programmes for staff. Collaborative structures that facilitate co-ordination to assess emerging critical risks.
Pioneering	Development of novel approaches and cutting-edge methodologies for the assessment of emerging critical risks. Assessments are updated regularly. Dynamic and highly adaptable communication, strategic partnerships and international leadership.	Use of cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, for assessing emerging risks. Advanced communication and visualisation tools that allow stakeholders to explore and understand emerging risks in an intuitive manner.	Culture of innovation and collaboration, encouraging stakeholders to actively participate in the assessment and dissemination of information related to emerging risks. Collaborative international leadership, working to promote responsibility and accountability.

Table A A.3. Assess management maturity and identify gap areas

3. Assess management maturity and identify gap areas
	Authorities and Systems	Knowledge and Capabilities	Responsibilities and People
Nascent	Ad hoc processes for identifying and assessing gaps in the management of specific emerging risks. Assessments may be carried in a reactive manner after high impact events.	Limited technological support for identifying and prioritising gaps in management. Findings might not be integrated into a broader reporting system.	Minimal engagement with key stakeholders for the assessment of management gaps. Lack of direction and training of individuals to assess management maturity.
Progressing	Processes for assessing management maturity might exist, but they are not comprehensive (for example, they might assess capabilities, but not responsibility) nor carried out regularly.	Increasing use of standardised tools for prioritising actions and investments in key areas.	There are efforts to cooperate to identify gaps in management, but not in a systematic manner. Leadership acknowledges the need for identifying gaps, but there is limited direction or resources devoted to the process,
Established	A developed and formalised methodology is in place to assess the knowledge, responsibility, authorities, and capabilities required to manage the emerging risks previously identified. Maturity assessment outcomes are regularly reviewed and integrated into decisions.	Use of tools for optimising resource allocation based on risk priorities and organisational objectives. Improved technological support for assessing maturity and identifying gaps.	Maturity assessment is done collaboratively with key stakeholders to understand unique challenges and co-ordination needs across these stakeholders. Leadership actively prioritises the identification of gaps in the management of emerging risks.
Leading	The assessment methodology is not only comprehensive and systematic, but it also considers multiple futures associated with the identified risks and how these can challenge management. Specific knowledge gaps identified by key stakeholders are used to inform further research.	Advanced tools for monitoring maturity in the different areas. Integration of advanced technology platforms for comprehensive assessment and gap identification.	Strategic partnerships with the research community are built and leveraged to address knowledge gaps. Accountability mechanisms are robust and comprehensive, ensuring that assessment and gap analysis activities are conducted in a transparent manner.
Pioneering	Processes for assessing management maturity follow best practices and lead to feedback loops for continuous improvement. Shared understanding of the different management requirements of a whole range of emerging risks, continuously updated with new information.	Automation of assessment processes, real-time monitoring of management capabilities. In-depth analysis for prioritising areas of investment.	Commitment to continuous improvement, regularly reviewing and updating risk management strategies based on emerging threats, evolving best practices, and feedback from stakeholders.

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Table A A.4. Develop and Prioritise Recommendations for Managing Identified Risks and Coping with Uncertainty

4. Develop and Prioritise Recommendations for Managing Identified Risks and Coping with Uncertainty
	Authorities and Systems	Knowledge and Capabilities	Responsibilities and People
Nascent	Limited consideration of deeply uncertain risks in existing frameworks. Ad hoc processes for identifying and assessing gaps in the management of specific risks / allocating resources	Basic spreadsheet tools or manual methods for tracking risks. Limited technological support for in-depth analysis and prioritisation.	Unclear roles and responsibilities related to deeply uncertain risks. Lack of defined authorities for decision-making in risk mitigation strategies
Progressing	Basic acknowledgment of deeply uncertain risks; however, integration is inconsistent. Some consistency identifying and assessing gaps across some specific risks.	Introduction of software with moderate predictive capabilities. Increasing use of standardised tools for prioritising actions and following up recommendations	Emerging roles for addressing deeply uncertain risks. Limited delegation of authorities for developing recommendations.
Established	Well-documented processes for addressing deeply uncertain risks. Formalised frameworks for developing recommendations and assessing gaps across risk classes.	Implementation of advanced tools for comprehensive risk analysis. Improved technological support for developing targeted risk management strategies.	Clear delineation of roles and responsibilities in managing deeply uncertain risks. Delegated authorities for developing and validating risk mitigation recommendations.
Leading	Proactive and continuous improvement of processes for deeply uncertain risks. Regular reviews and updates of frameworks for developing and validating risk management recommendations.	Advanced risk analytics tools and predictive modeling for in-depth analysis. Integration of risk management capabilities into broader decision-making processes.	Defined and mature roles for addressing deeply uncertain risks. Empowered authorities for decision-making in the development and prioritisation of risk mitigation strategies.
Pioneering	Dynamic and adaptable processes for addressing deeply uncertain risks. Continuous optimisation based on feedback and lessons learned.	Cutting-edge technologies and artificial intelligence for advanced risk analysis. Real-time monitoring and adaptive capabilities for prioritising impactful strategies.	Agile and responsive roles in managing deeply uncertain risks. Decentralised authorities with a strong risk-aware culture for validation and implementation of prioritised strategies

Table A A.5. Emerging Risk Exercise Series

5. Emerging Risk Exercise Series
	Authorities and Systems	Knowledge and Capabilities	Responsibilities and People
Nascent	Unstructured exercises, focusing narrowly on specific risks. Exercises rarely take place.	Little to no strategic foresight is used in considering future risk scenarios	Participants make monologue or presentation-type interventions, with little mutual engagement. Minimal after-action reviews, and exercises do not attempt to test the organisation's responsiveness to unforeseen challenges.
Progressing	Exercises are structured, focusing on a broader range of risks but still primarily in isolation. Exercises take place at irregular intervals, and often in response to external changes such as crises or regime change.	Exercises may touch upon future risks but lack a systematic approach of strategic foresight for exploring them in context.	Participants engage with each other’s presentations. Outputs rarely promote integrating lessons learned into strategic planning.
Established	Standardised risk exercise series, incorporating a wide array of risks, including emerging ones, into simulations. Exercises are conducted regularly.	Concerted effort to explore future risk scenarios, including both acute and chronic risks, but awareness of risk context is limited.	Participants engage in some dialogue on risk emergence and conditions. Comprehensive after-action reports that sometimes feed into strategic planning.
Leading	Sophisticated risk exercises that explore a range of future risks across multiple timelines, involve stakeholders from a variety of disciplines, and simulate complex, transboundary risks. Exercises are conducted regularly, according to an exercise programme.	Strategic foresight is used not just to gain knowledge on potential future changes, but to challenge present assumptions on how the future could look.	Comprehensive after-action reviews lead to actionable insights, which are generally used in critical self-awareness Lessons are usually incorporated into strategic planning and operational practices.
Pioneering	Advanced, comprehensive risk exercises that are designed with strategic planning in mind from the outset. Exercises are conducted regularly, according to an exercise programme.	Strategic foresight is used not just to gain knowledge on potential future changes, but to challenge present assumptions on how the future could look. Exercises not only explore external risks but also test the organisation’s preparedness in potential emerging risk scenarios, including acute and chronic risks.	Comprehensive after-action reviews lead to actionable insights, which are generally used in critical self-awareness. Lessons learned from exercises are consistently used in strategic planning and operational practices.

Table A A.6. Develop Flexible and Adaptable Strategic Plans for Emerging Risks

6. Develop Flexible and Adaptable Strategic Plans for Emerging Risks
	Authorities and Systems	Knowledge and Capabilities	Responsibilities and People
Nascent	Strategic plans for managing emerging risks are produced on an ad-hoc basis.	Begin building a knowledge base to track nascent risks with a focus on the nation's unique vulnerabilities.	Those responsible for actions covered in the strategic plans have some of the necessary powers and authorities required.
Progressing	Strategic plans for managing emerging risks are regularly produced. Basic frameworks for researching, establishing the necessary authorities and responding to emerging risks connect through ad hoc processes.	Implement more advanced tools for quantitative risk analysis and modelling tailored to national priorities. Enhance data collection methods and capabilities to support evolving risk assessments within the national context.	Identify, designate and train individuals / teams responsible for producing strategic emerging risks plans. Those responsible for actions in the strategic plans have all the necessary powers and authorities required to fulfil them.
Established	Strategic plans for managing emerging risks are regularly produced according to an established cycle. Frameworks for researching, establishing the necessary authorities and responding to emerging risks connect as part of an established cycle.	Invest in state-of-the-art technology for accurate and dynamic risk prediction, considering the nation's unique risk profile. Develop a repository of historical risk data for trend analysis and pattern recognition within the national context.	Those responsible for actions in the strategic plans have the necessary powers and authorities and there is a governance structure to oversee the execution of risk management plans.
Leading	Strategic plans for managing emerging risks are regularly produced according to an established cycle, and have clear accountability bodies that follow their implementation.	Use cutting-edge technology and analytics for dynamic risk assessment tailored to national priorities. Employ machine learning algorithms to enhance predictive capabilities within the national context.	The necessary powers and authorities to implement the strategic plans are in place, governance structures provide oversight and management structures ensure the resources needed are provided.
Pioneering	Strategic plans for managing emerging risks are regularly produced according to an established cycle, have clear accountability bodies that follow their implementation and involve peer reviews with input from other countries. Frameworks for researching, establishing the necessary authorities and responding to emerging risks connect as part of an established cycle with agile components to enable it to adapt to changing risk landscape, with real-time collaboration platforms for information sharing and co-ordination.	Leverage advanced artificial intelligence and predictive modeling for real-time risk assessment, tailored to national needs. Explore cutting-edge technologies like blockchain for secure and transparent risk data management within the national context.	Cross-functional teams made up of fully trained individuals with evolving roles tailored to emerging risk dynamics produce strategic emerging risks plans and are responsible for their implementation. The necessary powers and authorities to implement the strategic plans are in place, governance structures provide oversight and management structures ensure the resources needed are provided.

Table A A.7. Implement Recommendations

7. Implement Recommendations
	Authorities and Systems	Knowledge and Capabilities	Responsibilities and People
Nascent	Recommendations for managing emerging risks are implemented in a reactive manner in response to high impact events occurring. Absence of process for checking readiness of existing system to implement these recommendations.	Spreadsheet tools or manual methods for tracking implementation of recommendations for managing emerging risks. Limited capabilities for communicating with key stakeholders about how recommendations integrate with existing risk and crisis management systems.	Responsibility for creating unity of effort between government and non-government stakeholders in the management of emerging risks is limited to certain agencies.
Progressing	Occasional consideration of recommendations for managing emerging risks carried out without requiring a trigger event. Ad hoc process for checking readiness of existing system to implement these recommendations and for identifying changes required.	Specialist off-the-shelf tools for tracking implementation of recommendations. Initial capabilities for communicating with key stakeholders about how recommendations integrate with existing systems.	Responsibility for creating unity of effort between government and non-government stakeholders in the management of emerging risks is understood as a shared task across government.
Established	Structured and regular process for implementing recommendations for managing emerging risks. Documented processes for checking readiness of existing system to implement these recommendations and for identifying changes required.	Implementation of bespoke tools for tracking implementation of recommendations. Established capabilities for communicating with key stakeholders about how recommendations integrate with existing risk and crisis management systems.	Responsibility for creating unity of effort between government and non-government stakeholders is understood as a shared task across government and non-government actors.
Leading	Structured and regular process for implementing recommendations for managing emerging risks, with key performance indicators. Established and continually improving process for checking readiness of existing system to implement these recommendations and for identifying and implementing changes required.	Integration of bespoke tools for tracking implementation of recommendations with other systems for managing emerging and known risks. Established capabilities for having two-way communication with key stakeholders about how recommendations integrate with broader risk management processes.	Responsibility for creating unity of effort between government and non-government stakeholders is addressed jointly by government and non-government actors.
Pioneering	Structured and regular process for implementing recommendations for managing emerging risks, with key performance indicators, that adapts to potential future risk environments. Established and continually improving process for checking readiness of existing system and for identifying and implementing changes required and benchmarking with other countries.	Integration of bespoke tools for tracking implementation of recommendations with other decision support systems beyond risk management. Real-time monitoring of outcomes and adaptive capabilities for two-way communication with key stakeholders about how recommendations integrate with broader risk management processes.

Country case study interview information and consent

Thank you for participating in this semi-structured interview on your country’s practices aligned to the Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks. The questions are designed to guide us to explore your country’s work in this domain as fully as possible in the time given, covering each of the seven steps of the Framework. We have developed a maturity model, which will subsequently be used to analyse your answers and draft a country case study. We will send the draft case study to your country’s lead point of contact for fact checking, before using it as part of a cross-country comparison study. 

Please see the project description at the end of this document for further information. 

Participation terms 

Please tick the boxes below according to your consent on the interview and study elements. 

​​☐​ I give consent to participate in the interview in the terms described in the project description and I understand that the information provided in the interview will be used for the purposes therein. 

​​☐​ I give permission to the OECD to record and transcribe the interview using in-house and selected third-party providers. I am aware that the answers I give will be stored on OECD systems as well as those of the services used to transcribe and summarise the data; and handled according to each organisation’s respective policies. 

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Sample questions 

The questions below are indicative of those to be used in the interview. Please note that the interviewers may spontaneously add additional or follow-up questions; and may skip questions to save time. 

Please note that in all cases and throughout the interview, the focus will be exclusively on emerging critical and transboundary risk, defined in the project description below. Familiar, non-critical, or purely local risks are not in the scope of this study. 

Identifying emerging critical risk 

• What types of processes and tools, are currently deployed for identifying emerging critical risks? Please prepare to provide specific examples of their use. 

Assessing and sharing information 

• What methods are used to assess emerging critical risks, and how is information shared across different public bodies responsible for managing them or budgeting for their management? 

Assessing management maturity 

• Have assessed emerging risks been used to inform analysis of missing authorities, capabilities and/ or capacities? 

• How are the processes for managing deeply uncertain risks continuously improved and proactively managed? 

• Can you describe the strategic partnerships with the research community that are leveraged to address knowledge gaps in assessments of emerging risks? 

Developing and prioritising recommendations for managing risks and coping with uncertainty 

• What processes are used for decision-making under deep uncertainty, and in what ways are they being developed and improved? 

Emerging critical risk exercises 

• Can you describe any preparedness exercises undertaken in recent years related to emerging critical risk? 

Developing flexible and adaptable strategic plans 

• Who are the individuals responsible for actions in strategic plans for managing emerging critical risks, and what governance structures are in place to oversee their execution? 

Implementing recommendations 

• Is there a process in place for implementing recommendations on managing emerging critical risks? Please describe it and provide performance indicators, if available. 

• How is the responsibility for managing emerging risks shared among government and non-government actors, and how is this effort co-ordinated with other countries?

Country case study documents request

This document provides guidance to participating countries on the types of documents that could serve as useful written sources of information for the Secretariat in conducting the country case studies on management of emerging critical risks.  

As a general matter, participating countries should send the documents that they think are relevant and indicate the relevant portions/ pages.

In case it is difficult to identify relevant documents, the Secretariat has prepared a list of document types that is briefly described below and explained with a possible example. These documents are requested to help the Secretariat conduct its analysis of how the participating countries are managing emerging critical risks. 

For all the items below, please provide documents related to emerging critical risk, i.e. excluding documents if they only concern ‘familiar risks’. 

Where possible share documents that provide examples of how your country considers emerging risks, with hyperlinks to any documents available online. 

The Secretariat encourages participating countries to provide unclassified documents where possible. If the country considers that it wishes to share sensitive documents, these should be accompanied by handling instructions including how the documents should be stored, how long they may be kept for and how to destroy physical copies of the files.  

Emerging risk anticipation and management 

Risk assessments: assessments that identify and/or evaluate emerging critical risks. Examples might include national risk assessment reports (provided they identify, rank and/or analyse emerging critical risks as well). 

Risk management frameworks: documents that detail the processes and structures for managing emerging risks. An example might be a document detailing the national framework for risk management and how it applies to emerging risks, or one outlining specific processes for taking emerging risks from risk identification through to mitigation and monitoring. 

Emergency response preparedness plans: examples might include a generic national emergency plan that details how the response might be different for an emerging risk, including flexible response roles, dynamic resource allocation, or cross-government co-ordination mechanisms that kick in when it is not clear who is responsible for a specific risk. 

Responsibilities and people 

Laws, regulations, and statutory instruments relating to emerging critical risks, such as legal documents that provide the authority for risk management activities. This could also include legislation that establishes a national risk management agency, detailing its powers, functions, and responsibilities – as they pertain to emerging risks. 

Job descriptions and performance objectives for risk managers, analysts, and officers responsible for activities linked to emerging risks. Documents outlining the roles, responsibilities, and performance expectations of risk management personnel in relation to emerging risk. This could include a job description used in recruitment, including required qualifications, key responsibilities, and performance indicators. 

Calls for tender and published contracts: documents related to the procurement of services and goods for the management of emerging risks (including the identification and assessment), including specifications and technical requirements if available. This might include a call for tender for a risk assessment software tool tailored to emerging risks or a research programme aimed at identifying and assessing emerging risks. 

Risk / domain-specific documents 

Documents that outline plans and strategies for managing emerging critical risks coming from a specific sector or domain such as: 

• Health: such as a pandemic preparedness plan detailing surveillance systems, response strategies, and international cooperation mechanisms. 

• Technology: risks associated with technology, including AI, quantum computing, geoengineering, 3D printing, nanotechnology, synthetic biology, autonomous vehicles. 

• Defence: international or non-state transnational armed conflict. 

• Environment: climate extremes, keystone species extinction, space weather, super volcanoes and super tsunamis, etc. 

• Other: any other emerging critical risks not covered in the above. 

Knowledge and capabilities 

Training documents: materials related to the training and development of staff in risk management techniques and principles as they apply to emerging risks. These might include training manuals or course outlines for workshops on risk assessment methodologies for emerging risks or emergency response planning for government officials that includes dealing with deep uncertainties. 

Exercise plans and outputs: documents detailing the planning, execution, and outcomes of exercises or simulations to do with emerging risks (or linked to the response to such risks upon emergence). 

Public engagement and communication strategies and outcomes: examples could include a communication or public engagement plan detailing approaches for informing the public about preparedness and response measures that could apply to less understood risks. 

Authorities and Systems 

Organisational charts: helpful for clarifying the institutional setup and governance of risk management functions related to emerging risks, indicating the structural capacity to address emerging risks. 

Audit, evaluation, and lessons-learned reports: reports evaluating the effectiveness of emerging risk management initiatives and capturing lessons learned from past experiences of dealing with novel or unforeseen risks. 

Collaboration and co-ordination: documents that prescribe or evidence efforts and strategies for inter-agency and international collaboration on emerging risk management. Examples might include agreements between different governmental departments for sharing information and co-ordinating emerging risk management efforts. 

Self-assessment questionnaire

Thank you for taking the time to fill out this online self-assessment. In it, we seek to better understand the extent to which your country is implementing the steps of the Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks.

The aim of country case studies on managing emerging critical risks is to gather good practices, while identifying obstacles to overcome. They are intended as a learning process for High Level Risk Forum members. Outputs will be designed primarily to support governments. We will not produce country reviews or rankings, and we will not share results in a way that identifies individual respondents. For each question, we ask you to describe the situation in your country to the best of your knowledge from the perspective of your particular agency.

Figure A A.1. Link to the self-assessment questionnaire

The questionnaire contains 2/3 questions relating to each of the 7 steps of that Framework. Your responses will be combined with the results of interviews and document analysis to indicate a maturity level. This questionnaire is in pilot phase, and as you are one of the first countries to complete it, we invite you to give feedback on its content and design. All answers are optional, so feel free to leave blank any questions you are unable to answer, but at the end please also add a note explaining the difficulty.

Your responses will be stored and processed within OECD systems, and handled according to our privacy policy.

 

For each of the following statements, please indicate the extent to which it applies in your country's management of emerging critical risk	Not at all	Scarcely	Somewhat	Largely	Absolutely
Processes for identifying emerging risks are systematic, collaborative, regularly reviewed; updated based on the latest methodologies and findings
Individuals are highly trained in identifying emerging risks, and leadership shows strong commitment to identifying emerging risks.
Tools are deployed for emerging risk identification and consultation, including experimentation with new tools such as AI and machine learning
A comprehensive and structured methodology, which is continuously improved and evaluated, is in place for the assessment of emerging critical risks
Prioritisation of risks is based on continuous dialogue with key stakeholders and transparent, accountable leadership
The assessment methodology is comprehensive, systematic, and considers multiple possible future scenarios associated with the identified risks
Strategic partnerships with the research community are leveraged to address knowledge gaps
There is proactive and continuous improvement of processes for deeply uncertain risks
There is clear delineation of roles and responsibilities in managing deeply uncertain risks
Advanced approaches such as decision-making under deep uncertainty are used
There are regular risk exercises that explore a range of future risks across multiple timelines, involve stakeholders from a variety of disciplines, and simulate complex, transboundary risks
Comprehensive after-action reviews lead to actionable insights, and lessons learned are used in critical self-awareness
Strategic foresight is used not just to gain knowledge on potential future changes, but to challenge present assumptions on how the future could look
Strategic plans for managing emerging risks are regularly produced according to an established cycle, and have clear accountability bodies that follow their implementation
Those responsible for actions in the strategic plans have the necessary powers and authorities and there is a governance structure to oversee the execution of risk management plans
There is a structured and regular process for implementing recommendations for managing emerging risks, with key performance indicators, that adapts to potential future risk environments
Responsibility for creating unity of effort is addressed jointly by government and non-government actors, in collaboration with other countries

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