Managing Emerging Critical Risks

3. Country case study: Israel

Abstract

This chapter presents a case study on Israel’s approach to managing emerging critical risks, with a focus on national practices that reflect key elements of the OECD Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks. The chapter presents Israel integrated system for managing emerging critical risks, co-ordinated by the National Emergency Management Authority. This chapter also presents the level of maturity of the various aspects of the Israeli system, including how risk identification processes are informed by advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and big data analytics, and benefit from strong partnerships with academic institutions. This chapter highlights how Israel’s evolving practices support its ability to anticipate and respond to a wide range of emerging risks. Israel’s system is shown in this chapter to be at a leading and higher level of maturity – towards pioneering – in most aspects of the Framework.

3.1. Background

Regarding overall risk management capacities, Israel participates actively in the OECD High Level Risk Forum, a body of the OECD which facilitates dialogue and exchange of effective practices in public governance for the management of risks and crises.

In 2023, the Public Governance Committee published a report (OECD, 2023) on the implementation of the OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks [OECD/LEGAL/0405] (“the Recommendation”). Among the findings of the Report were frameworks and practices undertaken by Israel to enhance its risk management capabilities, particularly in financial readiness and communication strategies.

Israel is a nation characterised by a diverse range of risks due to its unique geopolitical situation, varied climate, and geographic location. Situated at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, Israel faces natural hazards such as earthquakes, droughts, and wildfires, as well as human-made risks including conflicts, terrorism, and cyber threats. For example, in 2016, the Haifa wildfires caused an estimated 139 million USD in damages, and led to relocations, as homes were destroyed (OECD, 2023[1]). The country's small geographic size and high population density, particularly in urban areas, amplify the potential impact of these risks.

Israel's climate is experiencing significant changes, with projections indicating an increase in average temperatures and a decrease in annual rainfall. These changes are expected to lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and flash floods. Additionally, Israel is located along major seismic fault lines, making it susceptible to earthquakes.

3.2. Institutional system for managing emerging critical risks

The nation's strategic approach to risk management is influenced by its need to ensure national security and public safety in a complex and dynamic environment. This has led to the development of a robust and proactive risk management system that integrates multiple government agencies and stakeholders.

3.2.1. Authorities and systems

National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA): The central body responsible for co-ordinating national emergency preparedness is the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA), established by a government decision in 2007. NEMA operates under the Ministry of Defence and is mandated to consolidate threat assessments from various agencies into a unified National Risk Assessment Document. NEMA has a norm-setting and co-ordination role, rather than statutory authority. Accordingly, it co-ordinates the risk assessments from various ministries, including Health, Defence, Energy, and others. It plays a role in creating a prioritised list of risks, allowing the cabinet to make decisions about resource allocation and management. NEMA presents the unified risk assessment to the cabinet for approval, making it a legally binding document for all ministries to act upon. From there, the cabinet determines actions, considering recommendations from NEMA. These recommendations are then implemented in co-ordination with the relevant ministries, also under NEMA's guidance. This implementation also takes into account Israel's preparedness and resilience as a whole.

National Risk Assessment Document: Risks are compiled and prioritised in a unified document that is reviewed and approved by the cabinet every five years.

Ministry of Health: The Ministry of Health manages health-related risks, including pandemics and biosecurity threats. The Ministry has established specialised units, such as a health intelligence unit within the Public Health Division, to monitor and analyse infectious diseases. The Ministry manages and responds to both military and civilian risks and crises.

Ministry of Defence and Military Cooperation: The Ministry of Defence contains divisions responsible for non-conventional threats (CBRN: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear). The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) contribute to identifying and responding to security threats. Their intelligence branch, Aman, provides critical assessments of potential risks.

Other key agencies include:

• Meteorological Service: Responsible for forecasting and assessing weather-related risks such as heatwaves and floods.

• Ministry of Energy: Manages risks related to energy supply, including electrical grid vulnerabilities.

• Ministry of Environmental Protection: Addresses environmental hazards and works closely with other agencies on climate change impacts.

• Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD): Established to protect against cyber threats, the INCD develops national cybersecurity policies, co-ordinates between sectors, and implements frameworks like the NIST Cybersecurity Framework

• Ministry of Communications

• Israeli National Digital Authority

• Ministry of National Security

• Home Front Command

3.2.2. Knowledge and capabilities

Multi-Source Monitoring: Israel identifies emerging critical risks through continuous monitoring by various agencies and units. For example, the health intelligence unit monitors global health data and communication networks to detect potential infectious disease threats early.

Risk Assessment Methodologies: For emerging threats with limited data, Israel invests in research to better understand and assess the risks. For example, NEMA worked with scientists from Tel Aviv University to study geomagnetic disturbances affecting critical infrastructure.

3.2.3. Responsibilities and people

• Cabinet Approval: The prioritised list is presented to the cabinet for approval, making it a legal framework for ministries to allocate resources. “We realised the only way we can make some legal framework to that list is... to go to the cabinet, and then the cabinet approved the list and goes back to the ministries.” (Interview IL-1).

• NEMA's Co-ordinating Role: NEMA ensures that there is a cohesive national approach and that ministries are not working in silos. It develops a set of reference scenarios on emerging critical risk, which ministries are to prepare for according to established minimal service levels.

• Ministry-Specific Responsibilities: Each ministry is responsible for assessing risks within its domain and for developing appropriate response plans for any risks they consider relevant to their policy area. “Every ministry prioritises their own and not all the scenarios are relevant to all the ministries.” (Interview IL-2)

• For example, the Ministry of Health owns health-related risks such as pandemics, while the Ministry of Energy focuses on energy security.

• Ministries not only prepare for the risks they assess themselves, but also develop preparedness plans for risks included in the reference scenarios developed by NEMA.

• Civil-Military Integration: The integration of civilian agencies and the military ensures that ownership of risks is shared where appropriate. “We have a very strong civil-military cooperation... when we analyse that there is potential for new threats.” (Interview IL-2)

3.3. Emerging critical risks identified

Key emerging critical risks identified include conflict, prolonged power outages, multi-zone wildfires, and toxicological events. For example, the Blackout Operational Framework outlines scenarios of nationwide blackouts lasting up to 48 hours and localised outages extending to three weeks.

Sector-specific plans address risks tied to natural hazards and infrastructure vulnerabilities due to Israel's geographic and environmental context. Documents detailing these risks include:

• Blackout Operational Framework Presentation (מצגת עלטה - 14.7.24 - כלליתV2)

• Health System Preparedness Plan for Prolonged Power Outages (הערכות מערכת הבריאות להפסקות חשמל ממושכות)

• Fire Dome Operational Plan (מערכת כיפת אש- תכנית הפעלה)

• Earthquake Preparedness Plan (תכנית מענה רעידת אדמה - נובמבר 2018)

3.4. Findings

3.4.1. Identify emerging critical risks

This case study finds Israel’s system to be leading to pioneering with respect to identifying emerging critical risks due to its comprehensive, multi-source approach that involves strong inter-agency collaboration, allowing Israel to proactively identify emerging critical risks.

Multi-source approach: Israel employs a multi-source, collaborative approach to identify emerging critical risks, involving co-ordination among various government agencies, specialised units, and the military. The National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) consolidates knowledge from different agencies into a unified National Risk Assessment document:

By government decision from 2007[...] NEMA was authorised to bring to Israel the National Risk Assessment document [...] that is basically a composition of threat assessments from various agencies. (Interview IL-1)

Among the multiple sources gathering knowledge of signals of emerging risks are the following:

• Ministry of Defence (MOD) Unit for Non-Conventional Threats: The MOD provides assessments of non-conventional threats such as chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) risks.

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF): The IDF provide assessments on military threats that might affect the market and the civil functional continuity.

• National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) for natural hazard scenarios: NEMA supplies scenarios for natural hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, and wildfires.

• Specialised Health Intelligence Unit within MOH: This unit constantly monitors data from social networks and official organisations like the World Health Organization (WHO) for suspicious disease patterns.

They are screening all the time the data and information through communication through social networks and from official organisations like the WHO or NGOs or the Red Cross. (Interview IL-2)

• The Israel National Digital Agency (INDA) uses data analytics and monitors behavioural data to anticipate emerging risks.

• Military Cooperation: Regular information sharing with the military's operational and medical branches enhances situational awareness.

This multi-source approach enables early detection of emerging risks. For example, during the early stages of COVID-19, the health intelligence unit identified unusual activity from early reports in China, prompting proactive actions before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic:

We identified that something is suspicious [...] on December 2019 before the WHO declared on that and before most of the countries. (Interview IL-5)

Responsiveness to evolving conditions: In addition to the five-year cycle for the National Risk Assessment, NEMA conducts interim monitoring to allow for early detection of new emerging risks:

Within these five years, you validate the threats all the time [...] You may find yourself after two and a half years saying, okay, this is not as high in the list. (Interview IL-1)

We are always, throughout the year, searching in the globe with different agencies, searching for new threats all the time ongoing. (Interview IL-2)

International intelligence: The Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Health, and others identify new threats by continuously scanning global developments, often collaborating with international counterparts.

Methodologies: Processes for identifying emerging risks are systematic, collaborative, and regularly reviewed, aligning with the maturity model's leading practices. There is experimentation with new tools such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to enhance risk identification.

The Ministry of Energy conducts regular assessments of reference scenarios for each threat, updating them every five years or earlier if necessary:

Our methodology for emergency preparedness involves writing a reference scenario for each threat. The national reference scenarios are written by NEMA, and we derive from them the reference scenario for the energy sector. (Interview IL-4)

The Meteorological Service identifies significant weather risks, such as heatwaves and heavy precipitation events, and adjusts monitoring and forecasting accordingly. The Service is also initiating projects using AI to better understand the impact of heatwaves, for example to improve forecasting and understanding of temperatures in urban heat islands.

The Israel National Digital Agency (INDA) uses methods including real-time monitoring, behavioural data, and predictive analysis to detect emerging risks. Tools include AI, behavioural sensors (such as smartwatch data tracking sleep and anxiety levels), and big data analytics to gain insights into public sentiment and situational needs. INDA's methodologies extend to unconventional data sources such as Google Trends and aggregated purchase data, picking up on shifts in public behaviour or resource demands which may be indicative of emerging risks materialising.

Collaboration and consultation: Inter-agency collaboration is documented in numerous settings with respect to emerging risk identification in Israel. NEMA co-ordinates with various ministries and agencies to ensure comprehensive assessments:

We maintain contact with all relevant government bodies. This can be through internet portals accessed by all ministries, where each can upload relevant information. (Interview IL-1)

Academic expertise: Israel collaborates with academia to enhance risk identification and assessment. For example, NEMA worked with scientists from Tel Aviv University to study geomagnetic disturbances affecting critical infrastructure:

Together with a scientist with the Tel Aviv University [...] we realised that that might be affecting Air Force. (Interview IL-1)

The Meteorological Service also engages with academic institutions to share findings and improve risk identification.

Furthermore, several ministries, including the Ministry of Health, have a “Chief Scientist” position, whose role is to ensure the practical application of cutting-edge research in the respective ministry’s work, including its identification of emerging critical risks.

3.4.2. Assess and share information about emerging critical risks

Israel is leading in assessing and sharing information about emerging critical risks. The systematic approach to assessing and sharing information about emerging critical risks involves strong inter-agency collaboration, use of advanced technologies, and engagement with academia and the private sector. The established mechanisms for information sharing and the commitment to continuous improvement align with the leading level of maturity in this area. Addressing challenges related to data sharing and co-ordination could further enhance Israel's capabilities.

Assessment: Israel conducts systematic assessments of emerging critical risks through inter-agency collaboration and specialised units within ministries.

Each ministry and relevant organisation (such as the fire and rescue authority, the IDF, and others), develops and analyses threats under its responsibility.

NEMA then co-ordinates these risk assessments into a unified National Risk Assessment document, including reference scenarios for emerging risks. It has a structured process to share threat information across ministries, establishing a "cumulative threat scenario list" approved by the Israeli cabinet, which compels ministries to account for these risks in their planning. These reference scenarios are updated every five years or earlier if necessary, ensuring that assessments remain current and relevant.

From there, line ministries and other agencies draw from the common resources to develop sector-specific analyses. An official from one ministry described their approach:

Our methodology for emergency preparedness involves writing a reference scenario for each threat. The national reference scenarios are written by NEMA, and we derive from them the reference scenario for [our] sector. (Interview IL-4)

Likewise, another ministry also reports conducting scenario analyses and developing models to assess emerging threats by working closely with operational bodies and research institutions:

They develop capabilities and prepare for an appropriate response... employing statistical capabilities and conducting physical analyses to assess the likelihood and scale of potential events. (Interview IL-6)

Information sharing: Israel has established mechanisms for sharing information about emerging critical risks among government agencies, the military, academia, and other stakeholders. Inter-agency collaboration is facilitated through committees, working groups, and regular meetings.

The Committee for Climate Change Adaptation involves multiple ministries and authorities, enabling co-ordinated efforts to address climate-related risks.

The Ministry of National Security organises annual conferences and exercises to share information and co-ordinate responses among different parties. These conferences address both theoretical and practical levels, updating models and discussing how to educate the public and provide necessary resources during events.

The Ministry of Health also uses a "stable table of preparedness," which comprises four legs—equipment, infrastructure, staff skills, and doctrine (SOPs and checklists)—to assess the preparedness levels for emerging risks.

INDA contributes to information sharing by reporting to the Prime Minister's Office and issuing weekly reports to officials:

We report to the Prime Minister's Office and issue a weekly report that goes to about 500 officials in the Israeli government. (Interview IL-4)

INDA also monitors behavioural data and public information to anticipate emerging risks and inform decision-makers about areas that may require government attention. They systematically make data and analysis available using a “pyramid model”, sharing four kinds of information:

1. Open data: publishing the raw source data from which the analyses of emerging risks are derived

2. Business intelligence: consolidating the data into an online dashboard to make information accessible to the public

3. Text analysis: producing a weekly report giving interpretations of the data for sense-making purposes

4. Red flags: raising alerts when the prior steps indicate a risk emerging that requires attention

Collaboration with academia and private sector: Israeli authorities engage with academic institutions and the private sector to enhance assessment capabilities.

The Ministry of Health collaborates closely with academic institutions, which provide research support when data on new risks is scarce. For novel health threats, such as a new infectious disease, the ministry refers to the Israeli Center of Disease Control and its health intelligence unit for continuous data collection and analysis. There is also strong civil-military cooperation, with regular co-ordination between civilian agencies and the military's medical and operational branches. This collaboration ensures that information is up-to-date and relevant for developing appropriate health responses.

The Meteorological Service collaborates with universities to share findings and improve understanding, including through participation in academic conferences and webinars. INDA works with Tel Aviv University on research projects (such as the smartwatch analysis mentioned above) and collaborates with private companies to develop digital tools during crises.

INDA leverages public-private partnerships, as evidenced by the Arava Command and Control Center, which allowed rapid digital tool development by mobilising resources from Israel's tech sector.

Challenges and areas for improvement: Despite the numerous effective practices, some challenges exist. Data sharing and interoperability between ministries can be hindered by privacy considerations and bureaucratic constraints, as highlighted during crisis situations:

Privacy considerations often prevent data fusion before a crisis, but during a crisis, immediate data sharing is necessary. (Interview IL-5)

3.4.3. Assess management maturity and identify gap areas

Israel has an established approach in assessing management maturity and identifying gap areas.

NEMA periodically reassesses threats and the country’s readiness for each. Each ministry is responsible for prioritising preparedness scenarios based on its primary mission, with co-ordination by NEMA, which annually mandates focus areas such as pandemic, earthquake, or conflict. Ministries adjust their priorities annually to respond to gaps in their preparedness. For emerging threats that require real-time adjustments, NEMA issues interim and even ad hoc updates, allowing others to mobilise resources accordingly. This flexibility allows ministries to reprioritise resource allocation to maintain operational continuity amid unanticipated challenges, such as power outages affecting multiple sectors simultaneously.

Capability assessment: There is evidence of ministries adjusting their priorities in this way through regular assessments of emergency preparedness and management capabilities through systematic evaluation of resources, infrastructure, and response strategies.

The Ministry of Energy, for example, sets minimum service levels and identifies gaps between current capabilities and the requirements to meet those levels during emergencies brought on by emerging risks:

Now that we have both the reference scenarios and the service levels, we bring them together to identify the gaps. In light of these gaps, we develop response plans or capacity-building plans to deal with emergency situations. (Interview)

Ministries evaluate their management maturity by examining their ability to maintain national service-level goals developed by the ministry and reported into a unified system. For example, the Blackout Operational Framework identifies challenges in maintaining home-based patient support during long-term power outages, particularly where local governments struggle to manage high patient volumes.

The Ministry of National Security develops national “master plans” and conducts exercises to assess and enhance management capabilities:

Usually, over the course of a year, a national master plan is written, which serves as a national response plan... After these discussions, a learning stage begins with after-action reviews. (Interview)

The Meteorological Service identified the need to improve infrastructure and planning based on updated climate data, emphasising the challenge of convincing decision-makers to invest in long-term solutions:

We cannot plan according to history; we need to take into account climate change... decision-makers don't like it because then they do the calculation: 'Now I need to change all the system; it will be one million dollars.’ (Interview)

Technologies and analytics: Israel employs advanced technologies and data analytics to assess management capabilities. The Israel National Digital Agency (INDA) uses data from various sources to identify gaps in services and public needs. For example, credit card data and web search information from Google Maps has been used to identify internal migration patterns when emerging risks occur, allowing municipal healthcare facilities to identify gaps in their capacity to respond to changes in their workloads.

Collaboration and co-ordination: Inter-agency collaboration is integral to assessing management maturity and identifying gaps. The Ministry of National Security co-ordinates with other ministries and operational bodies through conferences and exercises:

We organise conferences every year, bringing together all the different parties—the government ministries involved, as well as the operational bodies. (Interview)

Challenges and areas for improvement: some officials interviewed noted that limited resources necessitate prioritisation of investments and may hinder the ability to address all identified gaps. They also noted issues concerning data fusion and sharing between ministries, particularly concerning privacy considerations, which can impact the assessment and improvement of management capabilities. Furthermore, tension may exist between the need for private infrastructure companies to invest in emergency preparedness and their focus on profitability.

3.4.4. Develop and prioritise recommendations for managing identified risks and coping with uncertainty

Israel is established in developing and prioritising recommendations for managing identified risks and coping with uncertainty. The systematic approach involves scenario analysis, gap identification, inter-agency collaboration, and adaptation to new threats. Continuous validation and the use of all-hazard risk reduction enhance the effectiveness of recommendations. A clearer link with the prior steps of the framework could further strengthen Israel's capabilities in this area.

Prioritisation: Israel's approach to prioritising risks involves evaluating the severity and likelihood of threats and aligning them with national capabilities and resources. Recommendations are developed collaboratively among ministries, with NEMA co-ordinating. This case study was unable to establish an explicit link between the prioritisation of risks and the prioritisation of recommendations for managing them.

All-hazard preparedness: Israel identifies approaches that can address multiple threats, including several emerging critical risks. For example, the Ministry of Energy ensures that power plants are dual fuel to operate on both natural gas and diesel in case of supply disruptions. Israel invests in protective measures and collaborates with the defence establishment.

Coping with uncertainty: As highlighted, threats and priorities are regularly reassessed to reflect new information and changing circumstances. Israel adapts its strategies to emerging threats by creating new scenarios and response plans. The Ministry of National Security develops programmes like the Fire Dome1 to address the increasing risk of large-scale fires due to climate change. Nevertheless, a missing piece of information in this case study was whether specific tools and techniques such as Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (Marchau, 2019[2]) are explicitly deployed.

Challenges and areas for improvement: Certain agencies tasked with identifying and prioritising emerging critical risks reported that their mandate does not extend to formulating fully developed recommendations. It is therefore not always clear how strong the link is between identifying risks and developing recommendations to address them.

We realised the only way we can make some legal framework to that list is... to go to the cabinet, and then the cabinet approved the list and goes back to the ministries. (Interview IL-1)

3.4.5. Emerging risk exercise series

Israel is leading in conducting emerging risk exercises. Israel's approach involves regular planning, execution, and after-action reviews. The exercises cover a range of scenarios and involve inter-agency collaboration, aligning with the leading level of maturity in this area. Continuous efforts to incorporate new technologies, enhance data sharing, and learn from international best practices could further strengthen Israel's capabilities in conducting risk exercises.

Processes: Israel conducts regular exercises to test and enhance its preparedness for emerging critical risks. These exercises involve multiple ministries, agencies, and sectors, simulating a variety of emergency scenarios to assess response capabilities and identify areas for improvement.

For instance, the Meteorological Service, in collaboration with other agencies, is planning an exercise to simulate urban flooding scenarios due to emerging risks from climate change and new infrastructure developments.

the Ministry of Energy conducts annual exercises to test response plans and improve over time. These exercises involve co-ordination with other ministries and organisations:

The exercises are conducted jointly with other ministries and organisations like first responders, police, and military, to ensure that everyone is receiving what we need to provide them and to enhance our ability to respond effectively. (Interview)

The Ministry of National Security organises national emergency exercises that combine both strategic and operational levels. These exercises are part of a broader cycle of planning, execution, and after-action reviews:

Analysing how the exercise went on both levels, we conclude it and formulate final recommendations, which takes about three years to put together. (Interview)

Exercises are a key part of the Ministry of Health’s preparedness strategy too, with each medical institution conducting "a big drill every three years, a sudden onset drill annually, and an evaluation every year" (Interview).

Novel scenarios, or evolving ones like heat waves, are tested through tabletop exercises initially, followed by more complex live exercises involving stakeholders across ministries once strategic response plans are drafted. In the case of fires, drills are co-ordinated with the Ministry of Interior, Police, Fire Brigade, and other relevant agencies. For scenarios without precedent, such as extreme heat waves, Israel is still in the process of developing exercise methodologies, incorporating actors and hypothetical situations to simulate realistic responses.

Types of Exercises: Exercises cover a range of scenarios, including natural hazards, technological threats, conflict scenarios, and complex emergencies involving multiple emerging risks co-occurring.

The Meteorological Service, together with other agencies, is planning exercises to simulate urban flooding scenarios:

We bring all the players together, and then we'll do a scenario: what will happen if [...] all the reservoirs that keep water from coming to Tel Aviv will overflow at speed? We bring, for the first time, all the agencies that are relevant to receiving the alert, to digest the alert, process it, and send it to the first responders. (Interview)

INDA scenario-based exercises, such as "Data in the Dark," further reinforce preparedness by simulating crisis conditions like power outages to test and refine governmental response capabilities:

We have conducted effective exercises like 'Data in the Dark,' which simulates a regional war in Israel and prepares the government to work without electricity.

Learning and improvement: Exercises are used to identify gaps and areas for improvement, leading to the development of recommendations and policy updates.

Analysing how the exercise went on both levels, we conclude it and formulate final recommendations. First, the draft recommendations are publicised for response. After that, they are adopted as permanent policy. (Interview IL-1)

Inter-agency collaboration: Exercises involve collaboration among various ministries, agencies, and operational bodies to ensure co-ordinated responses.

These exercises are conducted jointly with other ministries and organisations like first responders, police, and military. (Interview IL-4)

We organise conferences every year, bringing together all the different parties—the government ministries involved, as well as the operational bodies. (Interview IL-6)

3.4.6. Develop flexible and adaptable strategic plans for emerging risks

Israel is established in developing flexible and adaptable strategic plans for emerging risks. There are documented processes for checking readiness of existing system to implement these recommendations and for identifying changes required.

Processes: Israel develops strategic plans for managing emerging risks through systematic processes involving scenario analysis, setting service levels, and continuous updating of plans. NEMA co-ordinates the development of these plans by consolidating threat assessments and providing national reference scenarios.

The Ministry of Energy prepares for a wide range of scenarios, including war, natural disasters, and technological threats. As indicated earlier, the Ministry ensures that critical infrastructure can operate under different conditions, such as power plants being dual-fuel to switch between natural gas and diesel.

The Ministry of National Security’s “master plans” are reviewed and updated based on exercises and after-action reviews.

The Ministry of Health’s “stable table” of preparedness mentioned above is used to craft adaptable plans, ensuring healthcare continuity in both life-saving and routine services. For each new emerging risk scenario, the ministry assesses impact on these core services and adapts infrastructure, staffing, and logistical needs to maintain both emergency and routine operations. This includes practical adjustments, such as shifting elective surgeries to low-demand hours during conflicts. The interviewee notes that new plans are created based on inputs from the four main pillars of intelligence and collaboration, then adapted with academic and external expertise when necessary.

Challenges and areas for improvement: to develop these processes further, Israel could consider creating a common set of key performance indicators, and using a real-time tracking system to monitor their status. This would make it easier to revisit plans as understanding of a risk changes, including establishing a process for transferring analysis and management ton national risk assessment processes once emergence is confirmed. The performance indicators could apply to a range of public and private actors, with NEMA responsible for supporting the development of coherent response plans in terms of concrete planning assumptions.

3.4.7. Implement recommendations

Israel has an established level of maturity in implementing recommendations for managing identified risks, including by integrating them into existing strategic, policy, and budgetary processes. Ministries take responsibility for implementing recommendations and adapt policies based on new information and lessons learned.

Co-ordination: Implementation of preparedness plans involves co-ordinated stockpiling, infrastructure reinforcement, and cross-ministerial cooperation to ensure essential services can continue. For instance, NEMA worked with the Ministry of Finance to secure funding for increased stockpiles following the escalation of conflict in late 2024, ensuring continuity of critical supplies like fuel and food. Furthermore, NEMA oversees an inter-ministerial network to guarantee that each sector’s needs are supported, such as by ensuring transportation and energy continuity to maintain supply chains for essential goods like bread—under the direct responsibility of the Ministry of the Economy.

Budgetary integration: Significant financial resources are allocated to implement recommendations, reflecting their integration into budgetary processes:

We invest every year many billions of shekels in our plans to prepare the energy sector in order to supply and ensure the energy security of the State of Israel. (Interview IL-4)

Challenges and areas for improvement: to further enhance its progress in this area, Israel could consider developing reviews on how effectively recommendations were implemented, drawing lessons on how this could be improved, and sharing the outcomes with international partners, for example through the OECD High-Level Risk Forum.

3.5. Conclusions drawn

Table 3.1. Main finding from Israel case study

The table below summarises the main findings of this case study.

Stage of Risk Management	Maturity Level
1. Identify Emerging Critical Risks	Leading Israel employs a multi-source, collaborative approach involving various government agencies, specialised units, and the military to identify emerging critical risks. NEMA consolidates threat assessments into a unified document. The Ministry of Health's health intelligence unit monitors global data for suspicious disease patterns, exemplified by early detection during the COVID-19 outbreak.
2. Assess and Share Information About Emerging Critical Risks	Leading Systematic assessments are conducted through inter-agency collaboration and specialised units. Mechanisms for sharing information include committees, working groups, and regular meetings, such as the Committee for Climate Change Adaptation. INDA contributes by reporting to the Prime Minister's Office and issuing weekly reports to officials, enhancing situational awareness and decision-making across government entities.
3. Assess Management Maturity and Identify Gap Areas	Established Regular assessments of emergency preparedness and management capabilities identify gaps through systematic evaluation of resources and response strategies. Ministries set service levels and develop response plans based on identified gaps. Inter-agency collaboration and exercises help assess management maturity. Challenges include resource constraints and data sharing issues that may impact the ability to address all gaps effectively.
4. Develop and Prioritise Recommendations for Managing Identified Risks and Coping with Uncertainty	Established Risks are prioritised by evaluating severity and likelihood, aligning them with national capabilities and resources. Recommendations are developed collaboratively, emphasising versatile solutions that can address multiple threats. Continuous validation and adaptation to new threats enhance the effectiveness of recommendations, ensuring that strategies remain relevant and effective in a changing risk landscape.
5. Emerging Risk Exercise Series	Leading Regular and systematic risk exercises are conducted involving multiple ministries and agencies. Exercises cover a range of scenarios and are used to identify gaps and areas for improvement. Inter-agency collaboration is integral to these exercises, which include planning, execution, and after-action reviews, aligning with a leading level of maturity in testing and enhancing preparedness for emerging risks.
6. Develop Flexible and Adaptable Strategic Plans for Emerging Risks	Established Strategic plans are developed through systematic processes, setting service levels, and continuously updating plans. Plans are adaptable to cope with uncertainty and dynamic threats. Inter-agency co-ordination and engagement with the private sector and academia contribute to developing flexible plans. Challenges such as resource constraints and data sharing issues exist, impacting the ability to fully optimise strategic planning.
7. Implement Recommendations	Established Recommendations are integrated into existing strategic, policy, and budgetary processes. Ministries are accountable for implementing recommendations, with significant financial resources allocated. Continuous improvement is achieved through exercises, after-action reviews, and policy updates. Challenges include resource allocation and data sharing, but the systematic approach ensures effective implementation aligned with national strategies.

3.5.1. Main strengths

Israel's system is characterised by strong inter-agency collaboration and co-ordination, facilitated by NEMA, which consolidates threat assessments into a unified National Risk Assessment Document.

The systematic and multi-source approach to identifying emerging critical risks enables early detection and proactive management. For example, the Ministry of Health's specialised health intelligence unit monitors global data for suspicious disease patterns, allowing Israel to identify threats such as COVID-19 early on. Integration of military cooperation and collaboration with academia enhances the robustness of risk identification and assessment.

Israel effectively integrates recommendations into strategic, policy, and budgetary processes. Ministries are accountable for implementing recommendations, and significant financial resources are allocated to preparedness plans. Continuous improvement is achieved through regular exercises, after-action reviews, and policy updates, ensuring that strategies remain adaptable and effective in the face of evolving threats.

3.5.2. Main gaps and actions for consideration

Despite strong capabilities, Israel faces challenges related to resource constraints, which necessitate careful prioritisation of investments and may hinder the ability to address all identified gaps. Ministries must decide where to allocate limited resources to effectively manage multiple threats, as highlighted by the Ministry of Energy's need to balance investments.

Use of personal data raises potential challenges for any country concerned with the potential ethical implications. INDA noted that privacy considerations often prevent data fusion before a crisis, which can impede timely and effective responses.

There is a need to strengthen the link between the identification of risks and the development of recommendations to address them. There is room to clarify the interface between certain agencies. It is also unclear how recommendations are translated into explicit and commensurate budgetary resources and key performance indicators for ministries to implement them.

3.6. Country evidence used

3.6.1. Documents

Some documents were received in Hebrew and machine-translated into English prior to analysis

Ministry of Energy (August 2018) Earthquake Reference Scenario.

Ministry of Health (no date) Toxicological Event Response Guidelines.

Ministry of Health (September 2023) Earthquake Preparedness Plan for Israel’s Civil Sector (Draft).

Ministry of Health (no date) Policy for Treating Evacuees in Accommodation Facilities (Updated).

Ministry of National Security (no date) National Master Plan for Extreme Multi-Zone Wildfire Scenarios.

Ministry of Health (no date) Health System Preparedness Plan for Prolonged Power Outages.

Ministry of Energy (no date) Fire Dome Operational Plan.

Ministry of Health (July 2024) Blackout Operational Framework Presentation.

Ministry of Energy (no date) Control Framework Presentation.

National Digital Array (no date) Information and Knowledge Center Presentation.

Ministry of Health (no date) Service Levels Presentation.

Hasdai, N. (no date) Preparing the Health System for Extreme Climate Crisis-Related Events [EMT Global Meeting Climate Emergency Presentation].

Ministry of Health (August 2024) Emergency Preparedness and Response Presentation.

Ministry of Health (October 2024) Preparedness OECD Presentation.

Ministry of Health (no date) Stable Table of Preparedness.

3.6.2. Interviews

Anonymised and referenced in the text as IL-1 to IL-6, except where doing so would identify the interviewee

National Emergency Management Authority, covering national emergency planning, response frameworks, and inter-ministerial co-ordination, conducted [9 October 2024].

Ministry of Health, on healthcare system preparedness and crisis management protocols, conducted [29 October 2024].

Ministry of National Security, covering methodologies for managing large-scale fires and interagency emergency co-ordination, conducted [6 November 2024].

Ministry of Energy, discussing Israel’s multi-threat emergency preparedness strategies, conducted [6 November 2024].

Meteorological Service, detailing weather-related risk management and climate adaptation efforts in Israel, conducted [6 November 2024].

Israel National Digital Agency, discussing data-driven methodologies for monitoring emerging risks and crisis response, conducted [7 November 2024].

References

[2] Marchau, V. (2019), Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice, https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP67833.html (accessed on 4 July 2021).

[1] OECD (2023), Report on the Implementation of the OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://legalinstruments.oecd.org/en/instruments/OECD-LEGAL-0405.

Note

← 1.  מערכת כיפת אש- תכנית הפעלה.pdf (Fire Dome Operational Plan)