The landscape of major risks is evolving constantly, shaped by the growing interconnectedness of economies, societies, and technologies. This complexity gives rise to emerging critical risks that are transboundary, highly uncertain, and often systemic in nature. These risks present significant governance challenges, demanding anticipation, cross-sectoral understanding, and proactive strategies to safeguard national security, public safety, and economic resilience.
Conceived for government officials responsible for designing agile risk management policies, this report provides insights on how to strengthen national risk governance systems, improve co-ordination across sectors, and foster institutional capacity to address novel and complex threats. It offers a comparative analysis of national approaches to managing emerging critical risks, with in-depth case studies from four OECD Member countries: Ireland, Israel, Korea, and the United States. It is designed to facilitate mutual learning among senior risk managers and experts in government by highlighting effective practices, challenges, and lessons from experience.
Chapter 1 introduces the analytical foundation for the report, presenting a bespoke maturity model that helps assess and benchmark national capacities to manage emerging threats based on the OECD’s seven-step Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks. This maturity model is then applied to detailed case studies in the subsequent chapters. Chapter 2 explores Ireland’s approach, highlighting strengths in institutional leadership and risk identification while identifying areas for improvement, such as strategic planning, exercising and training. Chapter 3 focuses on Israel, showcasing a mature system that harnesses knowledge from across government and academic partnerships to anticipate complex risks. In Chapter 4, Korea’s methodical and forward-looking system is analysed, focussing on its multidisciplinary risk review processes and responsive governance reforms following real-world incidents. Chapter 5 examines the United States’s decentralised but robust approach, centred on the Department of Homeland Security’s co-ordination role and the integration of public-private partnerships to address emerging risks. Finally, Chapter 6 presents a synthesis of the key lessons identified from the case studies, structured around the key dimensions of the maturity model: authorities and systems, knowledge and capabilities, and responsibilities and people. The report offers a roadmap for countries seeking to enhance their readiness and resilience in the face of an increasingly uncertain global risk environment.
This report supports the mandate of the OECD Public Governance Committee (PGC) to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of governments in addressing the emerging strategic public governance challenges faced —particularly through assessing the reforms implemented in response to these challenges and identifying leading practices and lessons for other countries. This report also furthers the OECD High Level Risk Forum’s main objective to help countries refine the governance arrangements and policies needed to identify, manage and mitigate future risks and crises. This work is part of the High Level Risk Forum’s contributions to the OECD Horizontal Foresight Initiative on Anticipating and Managing Emerging Global Transformations, led by the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Unit.