Against the backdrop of increasing trade with China and Uzbekistan, Tajikistan is investing in road maintenance and expansion, especially in the Pamir region, to enhance its participation in the TCTC. However, the prioritisation of the Rogun Hydropower Dam limits the resources available for other infrastructure projects. Private-sector companies involved in regional trade have welcomed the removal of transit permits with Uzbekistan and improvements in digitalisation. Moving forward, Tajikistan needs to increase technical equipment and internet access at border crossing points, as well as to ensure that road asset maintenance integrates increasingly severe climate risks
Enhancing the Competitiveness of the Trans‑Caspian Transport Corridor in Central Asia
Abstract
The chapter focuses on Tajikistan's role on the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC). It first provides an overview of the country’s economic performance. Drawing on existing OECD work, a private-sector survey involving local and EU firms, fact-finding interviews with government representatives, and the government's responses to an OECD questionnaire, the chapter then turns to new hard infrastructure projects, the country’s progress in trade facilitation, private-sector development initiatives, and the impact of climate change and related policies on connectivity.
The economy has grown robustly despite recent shocks
The economy has shown resilience to recent external shocks (Figure 5.1). Following the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, Tajikistan returned rapidly to pre-2020 growth rates (World Bank, 2023[1]). The average annual growth rate of Tajikistan’s economy stood at 8.5% for the 2021-2024 period. Besides the surge in remittance inflows, growth in Tajikistan has been driven mainly by the industrial sector, with gold exports (which rose from 14,8% of total exports in 2018 to 31,5% in 2023) (Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2025[2]), and public investment, the most notable example being the Rogun Dam Hydropower project (World Bank, 2024[3]). Inflation has remained under control and has been the lowest in Central Asia (4,3% in 2025) thanks to a strengthened exchange rate and prudent monetary policy (IMF, 2025[4]) (IMF, 2023[5]). China is among Tajikistan’s main trade partners, as are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (Figure 5.4, Figure 5.5). While Russia remains the country’s primary source of remittances, the lack of recent updated data does not allow to assess its role in Tajikistan’s trade.
Nevertheless, the economy continues to face important structural challenges, such as climate change, insufficient and concentrated infrastructure investment, overreliance on remittances (equivalent to 47,9% of GDP in 2024 (World Bank, 2025[6])), low SOE productivity and barriers to trade (World Bank, 2024[7]). Without adaptation, Tajikistan could see its aggregate GDP 5 to 6% lower than otherwise by 2050 due to climate-related damages (World Bank, 2025[8]). The Rogun Dam project, anticipated to be an important growth driver for Tajikistan, faces unclear prospects. Success will depend to some extent on the degree to which Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan realise their plans to increase their domestic nuclear and renewable energy production, as well as the evolution of aggregate energy demand across the region. It will also be important to keep control of the costs so as not to compromise recent improvement in the country’s debt management1 (IMF, 2025[9]). In addition, Tajikistan’s reliance on Chinese financing raises risks, especially in view of Chinese investment in strategic sectors, such as mining, energy and infrastructure (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024[10]). Finally, the country’s dependence on Russian labour demand entails risks, connected with both the Russian business cycle and Russia’s increasingly restrictive policies towards migrant workers. Nevertheless, public debt decreased from 30.2% of GDP in 2023 to 25.1% in 2024, its lowest level in the past 15 years (Asian Development Bank, 2025[11]).
Note: The figure for 2024 is an estimate.
Source: (IMF, 2025[12])
Note 1: The data on Tajikistan is subject to qualitative limitations
Note 2: Russia has not published its trade statistics since 2022.
Note 1: The data on Tajikistan is subject to qualitative limitations
Note 2: Russia has not published its trade statistics since 2022
Tajikistan plays an active role in international connectivity initiatives and seeks to enhance its transit role on the TCTC
Tajikistan’s landlocked location and mountainous topography have proven an obstacle to effectively connecting the country to its neighbours and global markets. Under-investment in the road network and low connectivity between regions have also attracted attention (Asian Development Bank, 2021[14]). The need for a better transport infrastructure was recognised by the government in Tajikistan’s National Development Strategy for the period to 2030, with the aim of transforming the country from a “transport dead end” into a transit hub (Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2016[15]). As gold and other metals are Tajikistan’s main export products, renewed interest in, and greater demand for, critical raw minerals could increase the returns to investments in enhanced connectivity.
As a participant in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), TRACECA, CAREC and the EU’s GSP, Tajikistan has already benefitted from various sources of financial support for infrastructure upgrading and cross-border trade facilitation. As of 2023, the CAREC Programme had allocated more than USD 3.46 billion in Tajikistan in infrastructure and energy (CAREC, 2025[16]). Tajikistan has also benefitted from Chinese investment in road infrastructure and border-crossing points, and the two countries are discussing the extension of the Kulma-Karasu border crossing, which recorded a 2.5-fold traffic increase in 2023, reaching 472 852 (Avesta Information Agency, 2024[17]). As a beneficiary of the EU’s Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), Tajikistan has access to lower customs duties and increased its exports to the EU from EUR 44 million in 2019 to EUR 174.5 million in 2023 (gsphub.eu, 2023[18]). However, it is worth noting that while base metals dominate overall Tajikistan exports to the EU, these are not eligible for duty reductions under the GSP (GSP Hub, 2025[19]). Tajikistan and the EU have sought to deepen their partnership: negotiations for a new Enhanced Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (EPCA) concluded and the agreement should be initialled soon (EEAS, 2024[20]).
Going forward, increased involvement in the TCTC can contribute to Tajikistan’s further economic integration with its neighbours. Flows between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have significantly increased since 2017: in 2023, the trade turnover volume between the two countries amounted to USD 756.8 million, compared to USD 480.5 million in 2019 (Azernews, 2024[21]). The recent settlement of the border conflict between Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic also opens new perspectives for transport co-operation between both countries, while Tajikistan’s agreements with Turkmenistan aim at stimulating east-to-west transport flows (The Jamestown Foundation, 2023[22]). In 2024, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan signed a Treaty on Allied Relations, with specific provisions targeting trade and innovation co-operation (Caspian News, 2024[23]); Tajikistan and Kazakhstan have reached a 1.2 billion USD trade turnover in 2024, representing a 7% increase compared to 2023 (Inform.kz, 2025[24]). Private-sector respondents also welcomed Tajikistan’s involvement in regional transport-related initiatives, notably in the regional platform of committees on the simplification of trade procedures supported by GIZ, as well as Ready4Trade Central Asia implemented by ITC and BOMCA, the EU’s border management initiative.
Source: OECD and Pictoris (2025)
Hard infrastructure
Existing infrastructure is under strain in the back of growing trade flows
Private-sector respondents have welcomed Tajikistan’s course towards broader participation in the TCTC but pointed to a lack of infrastructure capacity to cope with increasing transport flows. In particular, they reported long border-crossing times on the Tajik side of the border with Uzbekistan due to the former’s lack of infrastructure capacity (insufficient number of lanes, sometimes no parking space on BCPs) and the low level of digitalisation of customs procedures. Congestion is exacerbated by the absence of green lanes, as well as by the limited use of electronic queues. Warehouse facilities are concentrated in Dushanbe and ordered on a build-to-suit basis, meaning that they are used by their ordering customer only. Gulf countries and ADB are financing multi-temperature facilities but these remain few (EDB, 2025[25]). Nonetheless, the government aims to enable Tajikistan to become an important transit point on the TCTC, notably via better connectivity with China.
The government is focusing on road development to improve asset quality
Many private-sector respondents mentioned the need to improve the quality of Tajikistan’s road network. The Pamir highway received particular attention. BCP infrastructure on the border with Uzbekistan is outdated, and respondents mention the lack of stable internet access and power outages on border crossings. Road infrastructure has become a particular focus of Tajikistan’s infrastructure policy, and the government recently signed a resolution to establish a Road Fund to pay for the building and maintenance of the country’s road network (Republic of Tajikistan, 2023[26]) (KazInform, 2025[27]).
Several road infrastructure projects are underway to enhance connectivity, including in the mountainous Pamir region. These include the renovation of the Kalaikhum-Vanj section of the Pamir Highway, supported by China, at an estimated cost of around $228 million (The Tribune, 2021[28]) (Eurasianet, 2022[29]). At the western end of the Pamir highway, a road around the city of Kulob will be built with the support of the Saudi Fund for Development (Asia-Plus, 2025[30]). Another major project is the construction of the Rogun-Obigarm-Nurobod highway, involving international organisations such as the AIIB, ADB, EBRD, and OFID, with a projected cost of about USD 75.5 million (AIIB, 2024[31]). In parallel, the government allocated approximately USD 275 million for transport and communication projects for 2025 (Trend News Agency, 2025[32]). Ongoing efforts also focus on improving road connectivity with neighbouring countries, such as Uzbekistan, through renovations and the establishment of logistics hubs at key border crossings (Fotekhobod and Patar) (Spot.uz, 2023[33]) (Khovar, 2024[34]).
China has been an important contributor to Tajikistan’s infrastructure development. Since Tajikistan’s independence, China has been the second largest investor in Tajikistan’s road network after the ADB, with more than USD 570 million invested in loans and grants (Asia-Plus, 2024[35]). Tajikistan’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has underpinned Chinese involvement in the country’s road infrastructure strategy (The Jamestown Foundation, 2024[36]), and directs the government’s focus towards east-to-west road development.
Government responses to the OECD questionnaire suggest that railway development is not currently a central part of the country's infrastructure strategy. High upfront costs and mountainous topography pose challenges to railway investment. Most of the country’s railways were built before independence in 1991 and were connected to Uzbekistan’s railway network, leading today to the existence of two separate, parallel railway sections in the south and in the north of the country, similar to the situation in Kyrgyzstan (CAREC, 2021[37]). Geography makes it difficult to connect these two sections on the north-south axis, as well as to build a railroad to the Badakhshan region and towards China. Thus, most private-sector respondents do not use rail for their operations, citing high costs and an obsolete network. Yet, the first multimodal hub for truck-to-train cargo reloading in Tajikistan is being planned in the city of Kulob (Khovar, 2023[38]), and a 22-km long railway is under construction to link the Sughd Economic Zone with the northern railway line (FEZ Sughd, 2025[39]). In addition, the Ministry of Transport of Tajikistan signed an agreement with Korea in 2024 to conduct a feasibility study for the construction of a new Jaloliddini Balkhi-Panji Poyon railway to be connected to the border with Afghanistan (Asia-Plus, 2024[40]).
Recommendations
Ensure stable internet access at border-crossing points (BCPs)
The lack of stable internet access at border-crossing points is an important bottleneck for the smooth functioning of the current BCP infrastructure. Stable internet access would make border procedures faster, especially if the procedures themselves could be carried out digitally. Tajikistan could invest in internet access when renovating border-crossing points (OECD, 2019[41]) (OECD, 2023[42]). Other infrastructure investments that would make border crossing faster include increasing the number of lanes on roads approaching the BCPs and providing stable electricity access at BCPs.
Stable internet access on border control posts (BCPs) is necessary for digitalised customs systems to process large amounts of documentation, link customs with cross-border trade actors, and implement digital single windows that provide internet access to trade actors for electronic payments. For landlocked countries, the provision of stable internet access is more costly than for other countries, and the same is true for the provision of stable internet access on BCPs. The example of Rwanda, however, shows that providing stable internet access to a landlocked country’s BCPs can be done in a cost-efficient way.
In Rwanda, the first step towards this goal was the construction, by the government, of a national fibre optic backbone which was financed from the sale of an incumbent telecom operator: the backbone was then managed through a Public-Private Partnership (PPP).
Thanks to a grant from the World Bank, Rwanda was then able to purchase sufficient bulk capacity to lower international bandwidth costs. In 2012, an agreement was reached with the leading telecom company of a neighbouring sea-facing country (Tanzania) to provide international bandwidth at a lowered price. The government was able to provide cheap open-based access to operators through the state-owned backbone: the operators could easily get their traffic to BCPs at an attractive cost.
Long-term cross-border co-operation is therefore key for landlocked countries to lower bandwidth costs and provide stable and affordable internet access to BCPs. Operating the national optic backbone through a PPP may also be a suitable option for cost optimisation.
Modernise the road infrastructure while considering climate risks
With increasing traffic from China, the TCTC provides an additional incentive for Tajikistan to modernise its road network. This would require exploring the establishment of new BCPs or increasing capacity at the Kulma-Karosu. The single BCP currently operating between Tajikistan and China could accommodate more traffic with longer working hours. It currently faces limitations due to difficult access, as it is located at an elevation of over 4000 meters and reportedly operates only 8 hours a day (excluding weekends and Tajik and Chinese holidays). EBRD (2023[45]) argues that the renovation of existing infrastructure, the digitalisation of the border management system, the expansion of the northern railway line to the Sughd Economic Zone and its electrification could further integrate the country on the corridor.
The government should continue modernising the existing road infrastructure to ensure better east-west connectivity, cargo safety, and enhanced resilience to climate risks. Given Tajikistan’s exposure to climate risks, infrastructure plans should account for faster infrastructure depreciation and higher maintenance needs; climate-risk assessments should be conducted and regularly updated (Verschuur, 2024[46]) (OECD, 2024[47]). Rising temperatures are making Tajikistan’s glaciers melt rapidly, while heavy rains are getting more regular. Ultimately, more frequent mudslides, floods, avalanches, landslides and rockfalls may severely damage existing infrastructure. Short-term road protection measures could include snow barriers, avalanche galleries, rockfall drapes, larger culverts, strengthened bridges, roadbed raising, and surface water drains (World Bank, 2021[48]).
To increase the resilience of the road network, the government could invest in soil stability by targeting first the roads with high traffic volumes and greater connectivity relevance, such as the Labijar-Kalaikumb, Murghob–Karakul-Kizilart, Guliston–Pyanj, and Dehmoy-Konibodom roads (World Bank, 2024[49]). For sections where it makes less economic sense to deploy full-scale investments, the government could install early warning systems (systems combining risk monitoring and assessment, warning systems and response capability) which would allow to prevent the use of certain road sections during high-risk periods. It should also consider adjusting the infrastructure maintenance budget to the eventuality of more frequent natural disasters (OECD, 2024[50]) (World Bank, 2024[49]).
Mozambique is exposed to many natural disasters risks due to climate change, the most acute of which are floods and varying heavy rain patterns. Mozambique’s budget for transport infrastructure investment is limited, which led the government to identify the most cost-efficient and relevant interventions for different roads based on the level of risk and the volume of traffic.
Prevention has been identified as the most cost-efficient investment to mitigate natural disasters risks. In this light, the establishment of an early warning system is highly advisable, with the necessary combination of infrastructure, new technologies and community involvement. Redundancy has also been highlighted: where possible, alternative routes should be designed to avoid traffic dependency upon one risk-exposed route.
Among engineering solutions, the cleaning and strengthening of bridges as well as the upgrading of culverts have been identified as interventions requiring the lowest capital costs while bringing the highest benefits in terms of avoided damage. The paving or graveling of roads has also been identified as an efficient solution for longer roads with higher traffic volumes.
Improve air connectivity
Air transport could partially reduce the costs associated with the country’s landlocked location. Enhancing air connectivity would lower trade costs, given the limited scope for developing road and rail infrastructure. However, air transport is perceived as expensive and uncompetitive, as Tajikistan’s two airlines (Somon Air and Tajik Air) benefit from a legal framework that makes it difficult for foreign airlines to enter the market (World Bank, 2023[53]). OECD interviewees reported that any new airline must match air prices with the incumbents. The airports’ quality and capacity could also be improved. As a result of prohibitive airfares (airfares from Dushanbe are among the highest in the region), more and more passengers, including respondents to the OECD survey, report using airports in neighbouring countries, such as Uzbekistan. The government should invest in airport infrastructure to improve service and better manage passenger traffic, focusing first on Dushanbe International Airport. To make air transport more affordable, the government should also consider reviewing current market openness (ITF, 2019[54]), notably the existing monopolies for transport and jet fuel which drive prices up (World Bank, 2023[55]). The recent announcement of the adoption of an ‘’open skies’’ policy is a welcome step, as it should expand air carrier access to the country and increase flight frequency (Asia Plus, 2025[56]). Nevertheless, environmental impacts, including higher emissions, should be considered alongside the economic benefits. Any expansion of air transport services should include measures such as adopting cleaner fuels and ensuring that economic benefits outweigh negative environmental and social impacts.
Trade facilitation
According to the 2024 OECD Trade Facilitation Indicators, Tajikistan is the 3rd top trade reformer in the Europe and Central Asia region for the 2022-2024 period. However, with an average TFI score of 1.172 in 2024, Tajikistan ranks below Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. Some progress has nevertheless been made in internal and external border agency co-operation, as well as in governance and impartiality. Tajikistan also ranks highest in Central Asia for the involvement of the trade community.
Source: (OECD, 2025[57])
The private sector welcomes Tajikistan’s involvement in bilateral and regional trade facilitation initiatives
Private-sector respondents have mentioned positive developments in trade facilitation. In particular, the suppression of transit permits (‘dozvoly’) between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has eased transit for Tajik goods going to third countries. Respondents expect a simplification of visa procedures for Tajik transporters going to Turkmenistan in the near future. The work of the National Committee on the Simplification of Trade Procedures has been welcomed, as well as Tajikistan’s participation in the regional platform of committees on the simplification of trade procedures supported by GIZ (GIZ, 2024[58]). In 2023, the Central Asia Gateway trade information portal was launched with ITC support, containing information on trade formalities from all Central Asia countries (Astana Times, 2023[59]); the project has already allowed Tajikistan to establish a mutually documented procedure with Kyrgyzstan on the import of cement (QazTrade, 2024[60]). Respondents to the OECD survey also noted that Tajikistan's participation in regional initiatives like B5+1, the Green Corridor, Casa 1000, the Belt and Road Initiative, and SPECA has positively impacted trade facilitation (Eurasianet, 2024[61]).
Imprecisions in the legal framework and the lack of regional standardisation impede trade flows
Private-sector responses indicate that Tajikistan's cargo transport legal framework remains unclear, particularly regarding mandatory transport certifications. Some laws related to road transport overlap but differ in detail, and legal texts in Tajik and Russian can vary significantly, causing confusion about the rules. Few respondents report finding the information about road freight tariffs to be easily accessible. Private-sector respondents also noted that the government's Single Window system did not meet expectations.
The lack of clarity in the legal framework seems to be a source of confusion among market participants: for example, some private-sector respondents pointed out the difficulty of obtaining a courier license for small load transport, when according to legal opinion obtaining this license is not mandatory. Overall, private-sector responses point to difficulties obtaining the necessary documents for cross-border cargo transport in light of burdensome cargo registration norms.
On the regional level, private-sector respondents mention conformity issues due to the lack of standardisation. An example is the recognition of health and safety certifications. Respondents specifically mentioned the Uzbek phytosanitary services, which may ask for a certificate not always delivered in Tajikistan, leading to long and cumbersome procedures at the Uzbek border crossing side.
Digitalisation
The Single Window has improved information access
Private-sector respondents reported that access to trade information has become easier in recent years. A Single Window for the submission and obtention of necessary documents was created in 2020 following a pilot phase, involving 11 agencies responsible for the issuance of 22 different permits for transit, import and export (OECD, 2023[62]). All transport documents have been digitalised in accordance with UN CEFACT standards. An electronic consignment note system has been developed, and electronic exchange of data has been organised between rail transporters and between customs services, albeit currently on lower levels. The Customs Committee has developed a data exchange software that connects the different customs inspections with the main office. To facilitate the digitalisation of transport procedures and make them more accessible to transporters, a Single Platform for Transport Services containing 30 modules has been opened, where one of the modules is a QR-code-based Single-Entry module is being developed for all transport market actors to facilitate the access. The Agency of Digital Innovation under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan is currently co-operating with ITC on the CART.IS project aimed at identifying gaps in the digitalisation of administrative procedures and accompanying the government towards full digitalisation (ITC, 2024[63]).
e-TIR and e-CMR implementation is still ongoing
The introduction of e-TIR carnets started in 2021. With the support of the IRU, the government is preparing full implementation of the e-TIR system, which will help reduce transport time and costs. The adoption of the e-CMR system is still pending, with the objective of providing real-time document access, speeding up administrative procedures and securing document exchange. The Ministry of Transport created a Centre for the Digitalisation of the Transport (the Centre) sector at the end of 2022 and has recently developed a programme for cross-border transport permit delivery.
Data collection serves to improve road asset management and truck weighing
The Centre has also begun collecting data on the assets of public highways using a mobile testing station to assess road infrastructure conditions with World Bank support. The project aims to improve financial efficiency in road maintenance (World Bank, 2023[64]). Satellite transport monitoring has also been put in place, allowing to track the location of vehicles in real time, control their movement along a given route and determine idle time.
In addition, the government is deploying technologies to measure trucks’ weight and dimension to improve traffic safety and road maintenance. Automatic Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) systems for trucks and other vehicles are being used to measure the weight of vehicles without requiring them to stop. Such systems are already installed on the Dushanbe-Khorog-Kulma Road section in the Kulob area, and two more are being installed at the eastern and southern gates of Dushanbe. Furthermore, the installation of WIM systems is planned for the Dangara-Guliston, Guliston-Farkhor roads, and other sections of the country's roads. Dynamic scales are also planned for installation at the customs checkpoints of the Spitamen, Regar, Kanibadam, Khoshadi, and Pakhtaobod railway stations.
The lack of mutual recognition and low digital literacy among the customs services’ agents are roadblocks to the functioning of digital procedures
Private-sector respondents commend the considerable progress in the digitalisation of administrative procedures. However, structural problems persist. E-documentation is often not accepted during border-crossing procedures, and different e-documents are not consistently recognised between countries, as the customs services still request in-paper certifications. Survey respondents report that digital literacy among the customs services’ agents is low, which slows down border procedures; overall low digital literacy among market actors leads to a lack of awareness of harmonisation’s advantages for trade and to the inadequate assessment of digitalisation’s costs and benefits. Although the government claims to have authorised e-signatures, private-sector respondents say that they are yet to be introduced in practice. The latter have also expressed the wish to have electronic queues introduced for border crossing (see Box 5.3).
In 2011, Estonia implemented the GoSwift electronic queue management system on its border control posts with Russia. The system offers the possibility to book a border crossing time and a spot on different BCPs and wait for one’s turn virtually instead of lining up in a physical queue.
The GoSwift system allows not only for enhanced queue management, but also for improved monitoring of traffic on BCPs: the customs service has a better idea of traffic and expected waiting times at BCPs, which allows it to share timely and updated information about the situation on BCPs. Transport operators may thus optimise their route depending on traffic information.
Lithuania has adopted GoSwift in 2014 for its BCPs on the border with Russia and Belarus. In December 2024, the pre-registration for trucks and goods vehicles became mandatory, with the aim to fully digitalise the waiting system and adapt it to the customs capacities. Transport operators are allowed to register for a spot in the queue when arriving at the BCP.
Inter-operability
The government works with GIZ on several inter-operability projects, such as the provision of simplified access to electronic phytosanitary certificates or the implementation of a risk management system by the Food Security Committee, which will then be shared with the Customs Service. The government is also expanding the number of lanes on BCPs to differentiate cargo by type, priority and assessed risk level. Tajikistan has ratified the ADR agreement, but latest developments do not indicate that the country has planned to harmonise truck weights and dimensions with Uzbekistan (EBRD, 2023[45]) which has adopted EU standards in the matter.
Recommendations
The existing legal framework on transport could be clarified
The government should address contradictory provisions in the legal framework and align translations. Current legislation includes a Charter on Automobile Transport from 2009 and a Code on Automobile Transport from 2020. The presence of these similar texts causes confusion for some actors, and it is desirable that one of the two should take precedence. Normative acts about the certification system of transport services could also be clarified, particularly regarding the mandatory or optional nature of some certifications. For example, the term “courier” should be included and defined in Tajikistan’s legislation to provide legal clarity for logistics providers involved in e-commerce, an emerging and increasingly important sector of Tajikistan’s economy. Harmonisation of Tajik and Russian language versions is also critical to avoiding confusion.
The “Rules for the Movement of Goods by Individuals across the Customs Border of the Republic of Tajikistan in a preferential and simplified manner” could be modified as well to ensure that e-commerce benefits from a level playing field. The current provisions make it more logistically burdensome and financially costly to buy products through international online stores: for example, the current threshold amount for importing goods purchased through online stores is 200 USD per month, which means that if this value is exceeded, customs clearance for the excess amount is carried out in the general procedure instead of the preferential one; at the same time, individuals can receive goods in international postal shipments worth up to 150 times the minimum wage per week, which makes for a threshold amount of over 44 000 USD per month. This difference discourages purchases through online stores without clear grounding, encourages indirect purchasing methods, and ultimately leads to a shortfall in customs revenues.
E-commerce represents a significant opportunity for growth
Tajikistan remains a relatively small e-commerce market. However, it is expected to grow at a considerable pace in the next few years, with a projected annual growth of 5,4% from 2024 to 2028, reaching a projected volume of 21,1 million USD in 2028. For a landlocked country like Tajikistan, e-commerce is an opportunity to provide new markets for local products, to modernise supply chains and to generate employment.
The government is working with the World Bank on the development of programmes such as E-GATE to help Tajik SMEs access the global e-commerce markets. An E-GATE conference was held in Dushanbe in March 2024 to foster knowledge exchange between SMEs and to give them the opportunity to meet regional and global e-commerce actors.
However, Tajikistan’s e-commerce market remains difficult to access for international actors because of licensing requirements for parcel delivery firms. Although domestic platforms such as somon.tj, alif.tj and others face promising prospects, the complexity and the arbitrariness of the current tax system hampers the market’s long-term growth. Another issue is the absence of class A warehouses necessary for the storage of e-commerce goods.
The e-commerce programme for 2025-2029
The e-commerce programme for 2025-2029 was adopted on 16 May 2024. The aim of the programme is to expand electronic commerce, reduce trade costs, simplify trade procedures, and generalise cashless transactions.
The programme sets out to improve the current regulatory framework on the digital economy, to develop the current research environment and national cybersecurity. The accessibility of cheap and high-quality internet has been outlined as a key goal to develop e-commerce in Tajikistan.
The programme was developed with the support of ITC and the EU Ready4Trade Central Asia programme and is directed primarily towards the private sector and the fostering of its innovative capabilities. Key industry players were involved, as well as the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the Ministry of Finance and the Communication Service under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.
Provide better access to transport-related information
Access to information about existing rules could be further facilitated. Tajikistan has made significant progress here, but private-sector responses made it clear that they often found that information about tariffs, necessary certifications, and administrative rules was not easily accessible. All trade- and transport-related legislation should be published on the relevant websites. User manuals and guides to requirements should be comprehensive and accessible on the same websites and on the Single Window (OECD, 2023[62]). On border control posts, the authority of phytosanitary organs should be transferred to the Customs Service to accelerate border procedures, in a similar fashion to the Kyrgyz Republic (Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic, 2024[71]).
Follow OECD and UN recommendations to facilitate trade, with a focus on customs risk management
To facilitate trade, Tajikistan could implement measures recommended by the OECD and the UN, such as the development of a risk-management system for customs, the acceptance of copies of original documents, and the implementation of pre-arrival processing for transit facilitation (OECD, 2023[62]) (United Nations, 2023[72]). Efforts should be directed towards the implementation of an automated customs risk-management system to speed up border clearance (OECD, 2023[62]). The government informed the OECD team that it is currently setting up such a system. Co-operation between customs and other government agencies on border crossings, co-operation between customs services, and co-operation between customs and the private sector should be significantly enhanced with the development of joint strategies. Barriers to information exchange between customs agencies of different countries should be removed to ensure systematic electronic exchange of data. The objects of measurement and risk-measurement methods should be clearly defined. A comprehensive IT system should be developed for all border agencies to have immediate access to necessary data and provide accurate risk indicators to ensure adequate responses (COMCEC, 2018[73]). As part of the modernisation of their services, the Customs authorities shared that they are currently planning the introduction of intelligent recording, digital scales and X-ray imaging at customs posts following a government resolution passed in October 2024 (government resolution #529).
Consider aligning weights and dimension standards with the EU
Private-sector respondents suggested accelerating the standardisation of documentation and procedures among countries in the region and recognising e-documentation flows between countries. The weights and dimensions system should be brought to EU standards, which will facilitate border procedures with Uzbekistan, a major trade partner of Tajikistan. The respondents also suggest creating regional conditions like those of the IRU Model Highway Initiative (Box 5.5), with a unified weight dimension system, a no-permit or unified permit transit system, and the respect of all international conventions on transport. They also suggested the creation of a TCTC co-ordination council involving actors from the private sector.
The IRU Model Highway Initiative, launched in 2016, aims to streamline transit from Europe to China via different transport corridors by harmonising customs and transit procedures and upgrading the transport infrastructure. The project was designed as a PPP involving governments, international financial institutions and private-sector actors to manage funding, construction and oversight.
The project is centred around two key policy areas:
Infrastructure modernisation, with a focus on BCPs: the goal is to modernise border control posts in order to streamline transit, which requires, for example, stable internet provision and up-to-date scanning equipment.
Trade facilitation: the initiative aims to harmonise customs procedures based on international conventions like TIR to eliminate the bottlenecks caused by the differences between customs systems. The project also aims to establish a unified transit permit system and harmonised weight and dimension standards.
The Model Highway Initiative aims to minimise border delays linked to the lack of standardisation and outdated infrastructure in order to reduce transport time between Europe and China. The digitalisation of procedures outlined in the project is aimed at eliminating the opportunities for corruption and unfair practices.
Source: (IRU, 2016[74])
Prioritise the implementation of e-TIR and e-CMR systems
Private-sector respondents recommend a full transition towards digitalised cargo declaration and administrative documentation. A particular focus should be directed towards the full implementation of the e-TIR and e-CMR systems, with the further objective to introduce a fully automated customs system including e-applications and e-payments (EBRD, 2023[45]). Private-sector respondents also suggest creating a unified database for cargo and passenger inspection, improving the Single Window and the online transit invoice reception system, and installing Rapiscan systems.
The transition from a paper-based to an electronic document flow would yield significant benefits in terms of logistics and speed of procedures. To carry out this transition, the government needs to improve its information systems to process e-documents, provide technical support to private actors, and conclude agreements with neighbours concerning the recognition of e-documents at border crossings (UNESCAP, 2025[75]).
Provide regular training for customs officials to improve their digital literacy
Customs border officials should acquire the necessary skills to operate a digitalised customs system. Regular trainings for government agents should provide for a better quality of public services, increased transparency, and especially faster border clearance, as many private-sector respondents mentioned that border procedures were too time-consuming. Customs agents should be trained to effectively process online data, operate risk management systems, and issue e-certifications.
Reduce opportunities for discretionary decisions
The sequencing rules applied to evaluate the customs value of cargo should be respected. Respondents from the private sector report that customs service agents frequently resort to the fall-back method when assessing the customs value of cargo. This method can be employed by customs officials if they deem that a private actor has not accurately assessed their cargo's value. The fall-back method empowers the customs service to determine the cargo's value with some level of discretion, creating opportunities for preferential treatment and bribe extraction. This discretionary power in valuation raises concerns among businesses about the transparency and fairness of customs procedures. According to the established practice, the fall-back method of cargo valuation should only be used when then the five other valuation methods, which are ranked by the order in which they should be applied, are not applicable.
Sustainability and climate change
A quarter of respondents reported that they were implementing environmentally friendly logistics solutions, including projects aimed at reducing CO2 emissions and transitioning to electric transport. However, most respondents did not have detailed information about state environmental initiatives. Government initiatives, such as the Strategy for the Development of the Green Economy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2023–2037 and the State Programme for Logistics Development (2023–2028), are focused on developing sustainable transport and improving infrastructure, and were mentioned by the respondents. A few respondents also mentioned provisions about the greening of cargo operations in the Code on Automobile Transport adopted in 2020, and zero-customs clearance for electric vehicles. Within the Government of Tajikistan and United Nations Sustainable Development Co-operation Framework for 2023-2026, the private sector is supported by the UN to implement international ESG standards (United Nations, 2022[76]).
Private sector development
Barriers to trade and competition stifle private-sector growth
Tajikistan’s private sector still lacks dynamism, while privatisation has slowed down in the past decade. Although the private sector officially provides from 70% to 80% of jobs in the country, individual entrepreneurs represent a significant majority of registered firms, and most of them are farmers (World Bank, 2023[1]). In Tajikistan, a firm is also considered as private if the government holds less than 50% of its shares, meaning that many firms which are registered as privately owned are in mixed ownership, with the state holding minority shares. New private firm registration is low, and the firms which manage to establish themselves on the market are constrained in their growth due to SOE market dominance in most sectors of the economy (World Bank, 2024[3]). The existing barriers to trade hamper the private sector’s productivity as potential import input is not available (OECD, 2021[77]) (World Bank, 2023[1]).
Public-private sector dialogue
Limited public-private dialogue and corruption hinder private-sector development
Overall, private-sector respondents felt there was a lack of regular and substantial dialogue with the government. The National Committee on the Facilitation of Trade Procedures supported by GIZ was mentioned as the only platform where the government regularly tried to involve private-sector actors on transport-related subjects. Only a few respondents mentioned the existence of other platforms for such a dialogue, like the Advisory Council of the Customs Service, the Advisory Council of the Ministry of Transport and the discussion platforms created by the Agency of Digital Technologies on the national level, and the EU and the regional platform of committees on the facilitation of trade procedures on the international level. These exist but are apparently little known among private players.
Private-sector respondents complain of persistent corruption as an issue significantly undermining the effectiveness of simplification and digitalisation efforts. They report particularly acute problems at border crossings, where factors such as the slow processing of documentation, inadequately trained customs agents, inefficient management of BCPs, and the lack of inter-operability between Customs and Border services can reduce the benefits of digitalisation. Moreover, border crossing points (BCPs) may even face closure during peak export seasons for agricultural products, resulting in extensive traffic jams and lengthy queues.
Recommendations
Introduce green standards for transport
The government could introduce stricter environmental standards for vehicles to encourage private-sector transport actors to invest in the green transition while easing financing conditions to acquire less emissive vehicles. For example, the government could consider following the EU standards on CO2 intensity, as the regulations in place since 2020 have significantly reduced CO2 emissions from vehicles in the EU (European Commission, 2025[78]).
Consider targeted support for the green transition of small businesses
Private-sector respondents suggest measures to encourage the green transition of businesses. The government could consider targeted measures such as tax reductions for businesses investing in the green transition or access to “green loans” through lower interest rates to finance the integration of green technologies and standards in business processes. Private sector respondents indeed mentioned that financing solutions to update truck fleet are currently prohibitively expensive, with interest rates exceeding 20%. Other types of financial instruments, which can be deployed with support from IFIs, include green credit guarantee schemes, green bridge loans for short-term financing options, green supply chain finance and factoring (OECD, 2022[79]). Given the limited budget available, the government should prioritise sectors with high climate impact and SME density such as agri-processing or textiles.
Amend the current Competition Law and regulate monopolies
There is room to level the playing field between SOEs and the private sector. The government could review SOEs presence in the economy, where they have de facto monopoly power in many sectors. The existing Competition Law could be amended to put clear prohibitions on cartels and abolish the structural definition of market dominance. The government should also limit the list of activities regulated as natural monopolies and ensure that regulations enhancing competition are applied to them. The current legal framework on state financing should be amended for more transparency in state aid allocation (OECD, 2024[80]), notably through the introduction of clear information on the steps for its authorisation, comprehensive criteria on its granting and objective assessment of its impact on competition.
The government could also consider introducing minimal performance targets which correspond to market benchmarks for SOEs operating in competitive sectors, while separating commercial from non-commercial activities of SOEs (OECD, 2024[80]). In case of SOE creation, the government would formulate clear economic rationales for such entities and conduct regular inspections (OECD, 2024[80]) of existing SOEs to evaluate their compliance with minimal performance targets, their productivity, their indebtedness levels, and their relevance, depending on the economic sector. The existence and creation of new SOEs should not lead to the establishment of a discriminatory framework towards foreign investment (World Bank, 2024[3]). Within SOEs, the rights of non-state shareholders should be respected, notably in regard to the accessibility of information about the SOE’s non-commercial objectives (OECD, 2024[80]).
The table below summarises the findings described in the chapter and suggests a set of actionable measures to address the challenges identified.
Source: OECD analysis
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← 1. Tajikistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio reduced from 43.5% in 2018 to 28.4% in 2025.