The countries of Central Asia have experienced solid economic growth in recent years. Historically reliant on raw commodities, they have striven to diversify exports and move up value chains. Since 2022 and the shockwaves brought by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, governments across the region have also sought to diversify trade routes. This chapter provides an overview of the region’s recent economic, trade and investment performance, looking in particular at the issues of economic complexity and diversification.
Enhancing the Competitiveness of the Trans‑Caspian Transport Corridor in Central Asia
1. Regional Trends
Copy link to 1. Regional TrendsAbstract
Latest economic developments
Copy link to Latest economic developmentsCentral Asia displays strong economic growth despite COVID-19, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and relatively undiversified economies
Central Asia has been one of the fastest growing regions globally in recent years. The region experienced a sharp V-shaped recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 1.1), quickly returning to its previous growth trajectory and outperforming projections (IMF, 2025[1]). This recovery, and subsequent growth, were largely supported by strong domestic demand, as well as infrastructure investments, rising real wages, and a rebound in the services and industrial sectors. The region also benefited from the relocation of qualified labour following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which further bolstered already developing local IT sectors. Despite the gradual fading of these effects, Central Asia countries continue to demonstrate robust growth, supported by strong domestic demand and infrastructure investment programmes. Nevertheless, GDP per capita in the region remains far below the OECD average: in 2024, Kazakhstan, the highest-income Central Asian country, recorded USD 14 thousand compared with the OECD average of USD 48,5 thousand (World Bank, 2025[2]).
Figure 1.1. Real GDP growth (2014-2024)
Copy link to Figure 1.1. Real GDP growth (2014-2024)
Note: Estimates after 2023 for Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.
Note 2: the IMF and Turkmenistan have been in discussions regarding data disparities.
Source: (IMF, 2025[3])
Data sources across the report
Copy link to Data sources across the reportFor matter of consistency and data comparability across the region, the OECD relies on IMF data throughout the report. In case of important disparities between national data and IMF data, both sources are provided.
The region is still at an early stage of trade integration, both regionally and globally
Trade openness varies widely in the region
Countries across Central Asia exhibit different levels of trade openness, as reflected in the dynamics of their trade-to-GDP ratios. The Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan have recorded an increase in trade-to-GDP ratios, while Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have experienced little change, and Turkmenistan has seen a sharp decline since 2014). Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, both currently in the process of joining the World Trade Organisation, have demonstrated diverging trends (Figure 1.2). Uzbekistan’s trade-to-GDP ratio, which increased from 36% in 2014 to 64% in 2023, shows the country’s deepening integration into global trade.
The Kyrgyz Republic has consistently maintained a higher trade-to-GDP ratio than its regional peers, with the figure reaching a new peak in 2023 in the last ten years. This increase is linked to the country’s role as a channel for Chinese goods entering the Eurasian Economic Union and more recently, as a hub for the re-export of goods to Russia following the latter’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Goods from China, Türkiye, and other countries often enter the Kyrgyz Republic at relatively low tariffs before being redirected to neighbouring markets, while the country’s relatively small economy means even moderate trade volumes represent a large share of GDP. In contrast, other countries in the region have either seen their trade-to-GDP ratios stagnate or decline, as GDP growth outpaces steady export volumes.
Figure 1.2. Trade as a percentage of GDP
Copy link to Figure 1.2. Trade as a percentage of GDPRaw commodities continue to be the main drivers of economic growth
Three out of five countries (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) have experienced a significant surge in export revenues since 2020, driven primarily by hydrocarbon exports (Figure 1.3). As mineral fuels remain a major source of export earnings for Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, a substantial share of their trade growth can be attributed to the recovery of oil prices since 2020. Uzbekistan intensified its efforts to diversify its export base following the reforms initiated in 2017 and experienced an increase in export revenues driven by sectors beyond hydrocarbons. For instance, the number of distinct product categories the country exported increased by 26% between 2018 and 2023 (from 774 to 981).
As global demand for Critical Raw Materials (CRM) is surging to meet the objectives of the green and digital transition, the region is well positioned to become a strategic supplier. The countries of Central Asia hold sizeable reserves of CRM: for example, Kazakhstan alone could potentially supply 21 out of 34 items listed on the EU’s CRM list. As of today, the country is the world’s top producer of uranium for commercial use (Eureporter, 2025[5]). The region’s ambition is not only to extract and supply these raw materials, but to become part of, and move up CRM value chains by developing local processing facilities and supplying products with higher added value.
Beyond CRM, Central Asian countries are working to export more processed products to global markets. All countries in the region have increased the number of products they export (increased diversity), with significant strides recorded in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Kazakhstan in particular. Tajikistan and Kazakhstan have made progress in reducing trade concentration (Figure 1.9). Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have become more dependent on a specific group of commodities for the bulk of their export revenues (increased concentration), despite exporting a broader range of goods overall. For Uzbekistan, this increased dependence is mainly due to a higher share of gold in its total exports in 2023, which led to a higher export concentration index. This trend does not contradict the government’s efforts abovementioned. Instead, the increase can be explained by the unique nature of gold trade: prices are highly sensitive to global uncertainty (which can drive prices up), and sales contracts tend to be one-off agreements resulting from central banks’ policies.
Figure 1.3. Export revenue
Copy link to Figure 1.3. Export revenueBillions of U.S. dollars
Note: Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan – primary axis (left), Kazakhstan – secondary axis (right)
Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC, 2025[6])
China has become a more prominent source of imports, while the EU remains the region’s leading export market
Although trade partners have not significantly changed since 2010, there are notable changes in their percentage contributions between 2010 and 2023. The share of European countries in both exports and imports declined, reaching 19% of exports in 2023 (down from 39% in 2010) and 14% of imports (down from 21% in 2010). Imports from China surged, rising from 21% of total imports in 2010 to 38% in 2023, while exports to China remained relatively stable. New countries appear in the export data for 2023, such as the United Kingdom and Switzerland, and are linked to one-off gold sales from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, respectively. Overall, Central Asian countries roughly doubled their exports, from USD 69 billion in 2010 to USD 137 billion. Imports grew more significantly, more than threefold, from USD 46 billion to USD 148 billion.
Figure 1.4. Trade partners
Copy link to Figure 1.4. Trade partnersPercent, import sources (left), export destinations (right)
The EU remains one of the leading destinations for regional exports, despite a decline in its share of both imports to and exports from Central Asia (Figure 1.4). Central Asian imports from the EU are diverse and mostly consist of high added value goods (Figure 1.5) The import composition has remained relatively stable, with machinery and mechanical appliances accounting for about a quarter of total imports. In 2010, the EU accounted for 21.4% of regional imports, making it the primary source of imports ahead of China and Russia (21% and 20.6%, respectively). However, by 2023, the EU had dropped to the third place (14% of regional imports), behind China and Russia (38% and 17%, respectively). As for exports, 39% of them were heading towards the EU in 2010, against 19% in 2023. In monetary terms, imports from the EU increased 2.1-fold between 2010 and 2023 to reach USD 21 billion. Exports to the EU decreased by 2% over the same period, to USD 26.5 billion. Despite its declining share, the EU remains the second most popular destination of Central Asia’s exports. EU imports from Central Asia are still primarily composed of raw commodities (Figure 1.6).
Figure 1.5. Evolution of EU-CA trade flows, imports from the EU
Copy link to Figure 1.5. Evolution of EU-CA trade flows, imports from the EU
Note: This graph shows the top five product categories exported by the EU to Central Asia in value terms
Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC, 2025[6])
Figure 1.6. Evolution of EU-CA trade flows, exports to the EU
Copy link to Figure 1.6. Evolution of EU-CA trade flows, exports to the EU
Note: This graph shows the top five product categories exported by Central Asia to the EU in value terms
Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC, 2025[6])
Central Asia exhibits positive trends of regional trade and investment integration
Growing regional co-operation has yielded tangible results in terms of intra-regional trade. Frequent high-level political dialogues, recent border demarcation agreements and new cross-border investment projects have contributed to this trend. In addition, OECD findings presented in the subsequent country chapters highlight that notable progress has been made in trade facilitation, with a reduction in customs clearance times, the successful implementation of digital cross-border projects and agreements on unified railway tariffs. As a result, trade almost quadrupled between 2010 and 2023 (Figure 1.4), from USD 2.7 billion in 2010 to USD 10.8 billion in 2023. Kazakhstan accounts for the largest part of the region’s mutual trade volume, though its share has decreased from 69% in 2010 to 52% in 2023. The countries’ contribution to intra-regional trade has grown: for example, if Turkmenistan represented almost a negligible amount of intra-regional trade in 2010 (USD 10.7 million, or 0.4% of trade), in 2023, its exports amounted to USD 1.1 billion (or 11%), with Uzbekistan becoming its single most important regional trade partner. Despite this increase, intra-regional trade still accounts for a relatively small share of the region’s total trade. In 2023, it represented 7% of the region’s imports and 8% of the region’s exports (against 6% and 4% in 2010 respectively) (OECD analysis based on (OEC, 2025[6]) data).
Intra-regional investments have also increased in recent years, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan acting as main investors (80% and 20% respectively of outward intra-regional investments in the first half of 2024) (EDB, 2024[7]). Uzbekistan has recently emerged as a significant source of regional investment. For example, “Uzavtosanoat” and “Artel” have been actively investing in the automotive industry and other sectors in Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. "Uzavtosanoat” is implementing two large projects worth $99 million, while Artel is implementing three projects worth $47 million (ibid). Other intra-regional investment projects have extended to sectors such as logistics, manufacturing, renewable energy, finance, and retail.
Figure 1.7. Intra-regional trade flows in 2010 and 2023
Copy link to Figure 1.7. Intra-regional trade flows in 2010 and 2023
Note: 2010 (left), 2023 (right); exporters (left) and importers (right). Country bar length and flow width represent share of total trade over the period.
Source: OECD analysis based on Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC, 2025[6]) data
Central Asia countries display low economic complexity
Central Asia remains in the lower half of the global economic complexity ranking (Figure 1.8), with Kazakhstan achieving the 69th position out of 132 countries. Nevertheless, it has increased the diversity of articles exported and is also reducing the concentration of exports (with the exception of Turkmenistan) (Figure 1.9). In the last 13 years, Kazakhstan has significantly increased the number of goods exported, from 935 to 1,134, as well as reduced concentration. Tajikistan, while keeping the diversity of exports relatively stable, has demonstrated a decrease in concentration of export revenues. The most striking progress in terms of goods diversification is related to Uzbekistan, where more than 351 items were added in the export basket, a 54% increase compared with the base year (645 in 2010 against 996 in 2023).
Figure 1.8. Economic complexity levels, 2023
Copy link to Figure 1.8. Economic complexity levels, 2023
Note: The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) is a measure of the relative knowledge intensity of an economy estimated based on trade data. The lower the index value – the more diversified the economy is.
Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC, 2025[6])
Figure 1.9. Evolution of export diversification, 2010 and 2023
Copy link to Figure 1.9. Evolution of export diversification, 2010 and 2023
Note: The concentration of exports is measured with a normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) on exported products classified according
to the HS 4-digit system. Diversity is measured as the number of exported products according to the HS 4-digit system. The circle marker
represents 2010 data, while the square marker is used for 2023 data.
Source: OECD calculations (2025) based on Observatory of Economic Complexity data (OEC, 2025[6]).
FDI have been concentrated and volatile
Since independence, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Central Asia has been directed mainly to Kazakhstan (Figure 1.10). The latter has attracted $165 billion of FDI, accounting for approximately 66% of total FDI in the region, followed by Turkmenistan with $44 billion (or 18%), Uzbekistan with $28 billion (or 11%), and Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic with around $6.9 billion and $6.2 billion, respectively (UNCTAD, 2025[8]). Starting from 2010, the share of FDI to GDP has been on a downward trend for the region with the exception of Uzbekistan (Figure 1.11).
Figure 1.10. Foreign Direct Investments Inflows, 2000-2024
Copy link to Figure 1.10. Foreign Direct Investments Inflows, 2000-2024Millions of US dollars
Figure 1.11. Foreign Direct Investments Inflows to GDP, 5-year moving average, 2000-2024
Copy link to Figure 1.11. Foreign Direct Investments Inflows to GDP, 5-year moving average, 2000-2024
Note: Nominal GDP estimates after 2023 for Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, and after 2022 for Turkmenistan.
Source: OECD calculations (2025) based on data from (UNCTAD, 2025[8]) and (IMF, 2025[9])
Central Asia recorded the steepest decline in FDI inflows in developing Asia in 2024. Both greenfield FDI and total FDI declined, showing a 61% YoY decrease (UNCTAD, 2025[8]). Kazakhstan experienced the most significant decrease in FDI, amounting to an outflow of US $2.6 billion (US $3.7 billion inflow in 2023) and attributable to a reduction in reinvested earnings and the completion of large-scale infrastructure projects, which led to a reduction in new capital inflows (Kursiv, 2025[10]). In 2024, Uzbekistan overtook Kazakhstan and became the region’s leader in attracting foreign investments (US $2.8 billion), followed by Turkmenistan (US $1.6 billion). The IMF notes that, amid the FDI decrease in 2024, the share of deals involving Russia increased in 2023-2024 compared to 2018-2019 (IMF, 2025[1]).
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