OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035

10. Other products

Abstract

This chapter provides a market overview and description of the current market situation for roots and tubers (i.e. cassava, potato, yams, sweet potato, taro), pulses (field peas, broad beans, chickpeas and lentils), and banana and major tropical fruits (mango, mangosteen and guava, pineapple, avocado, and papaya) markets. It also provides medium-term (2026‑2035) projections for production, consumption and trade for these products and describes the main drivers shaping these projections.

10.1. Roots and tubers

10.1.1. Market overview

Roots and tubers comprise a group of crops that accumulate starch in underground organs, either in roots (such as cassava, sweet potato and yams) or modified stems and corms (such as potatoes and taro). They are primarily produced for human consumption, either fresh or processed, but can also be used as animal feed or as inputs for industrial processing, notably in the production of starch, alcohol and fermented beverages. Due to their high moisture content and relatively low dry-matter levels, most roots and tubers are highly perishable once harvested unless processed or stored under controlled conditions. This limits long-distance trade and storage and makes the sector particularly susceptible to post-harvest losses.

Within this group of crops, potatoes account for the largest share of global production, followed by cassava. Potatoes rank among the world’s most important crops in terms of food availability after maize, wheat and rice in terms of human consumption. They are valued for their relatively high caloric output per unit of land and water, short growing cycles and adaptability to a wide range of climatic conditions. Production is concentrated in Asia and Europe and represents the majority of roots and tubers output in high-income countries. However, global potato production has expanded only modestly over the past decade, reflecting slower growth in several traditional producing regions.

Cassava production has expanded more rapidly in recent decades, particularly in tropical regions of Africa and Asia where it plays an important role in food security and rural livelihoods. The crop is well-adapted to marginal soils and drought-prone environments, making it a resilient staple in many low-income countries. While historically cultivated largely for subsistence consumption, cassava is increasingly integrated into commercial value chains, including the production of starch, animal feed and bio-based products. Investments in processing capacity and growing demand from food, feed and industrial uses have supported the continued expansion and commercialisation of cassava production in several countries.

10.1.2. Current market situation

The largest producing regions of roots and tubers in the base period are Asia (126 million tonnes [Mt]) and Africa (103 Mt). In sub-Saharan Africa, roots play a significant role as a staple crop. Globally, about 154 Mt are used as food, 44 Mt as feed and 34 Mt for other uses, mostly biofuel and starch. As the perishable nature of these crops prohibits significant international trade in fresh produce, countries tend to be self-sufficient. About 8% of world production is traded internationally, mostly in processed or dried form. Thailand is the leading exporter, followed by Viet Nam. People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) is the main destination.

Global production of roots and tubers reached about 282 Mt (dry matter) in the base period (2023-2025). About 8 Mt was added annually over the previous decade and consumed mainly as food. The prices of roots and tubers (measured by the Cassava Thailand export unit value) have generally decreased since September 2024 due to subdued demand from key markets, especially China.

10.1.3. Main drivers for projections

Cassava remains a resilient and versatile crop, requiring relatively low input use and offering flexibility in harvest timing, as roots can be left in the ground beyond maturity. Its tolerance to drought and variable weather conditions supports its role in strategies to respond to extreme weather, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to its competitive cost relative to other staples, cassava benefits from a wide range of uses. In Africa, policy initiatives continue to promote products such as high-quality cassava flour as a partial substitute for imported cereals, contributing to food security objectives.

In several countries, including Nigeria, policies encouraging the substitution of wheat flour with cassava-based products aim to reduce reliance on imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves. In Asia, cassava is also used as a feedstock for ethanol production, supported in some countries by biofuel blending mandates, although its use remains sensitive to relative feedstock prices. In international markets, processed cassava products, such as starch and dried chips, compete with maize and other feed grains in industrial and feed applications.

Potatoes continue to be predominantly consumed as food. However, per capita consumption in these regions has stabilised, limiting further growth in total demand. Future expansion in global potato production is, therefore, expected to be mainly driven by population growth and rising consumption in developing regions.

Global sweet potato production has shown a declining trend in recent years, largely reflecting reductions in harvested area in China, the world’s leading producer. Demand for sweet potatoes and other roots and tubers remains primarily food-driven, with limited scope for industrial use compared to cassava. As a result, consumption patterns are closely linked to consumer preferences, income growth and relative prices, which continue to shape developments in these markets.

10.1.4. Projection highlights

Global production and use of roots and tubers are expected to expand significantly over the coming decade, by about 20% compared to current levels, depending on yield outcomes and demand developments. Expansion will be driven primarily by low- and lower middle-income countries, where population growth and dietary patterns continue to support rising consumption.

Harvested area is projected to increase moderately, with most of the expansion occurring in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting the crop’s resilience and its role in food security systems. In contrast, area under cultivation of roots and tubers is expected to stagnate or decline in higher income regions, including parts of Europe and the Americas, where production faces competition from other crops and limited demand growth. Trends are more mixed in Asia, with relatively stable or slightly declining area, particularly due to structural changes in China’s sweet potato sector.

Overall production growth is expected to rely increasingly on yield improvements and more intensive production systems, especially in Africa, where investments in improved varieties, better agronomic practices and market integration are gradually raising productivity (Figure 10.1).

Global per capita food consumption of roots and tubers is projected to increase moderately from 19 currently to around 21 kilogrammes (kg)/person/year in 2035, driven largely by population growth and rising consumption in sub-Saharan Africa, where consumption levels are already well above the global average. Growth in biofuel use, while starting from a small base (around 4% of total use), is expected to expand further, supported mainly by demand from China’s starch and ethanol industries. Feed and other industrial uses are also projected to increase, reflecting the growing role of cassava and other roots as substitutes for cereals in feed and processing.

International trade in roots and tubers is expected to remain broadly stable at around 8% of global output over the medium term. Exports are concentrated in a small number of countries, notably Thailand and Viet Nam, whose combined shipments are projected to expand further to supply demand from China, particularly for starch production and, to a lesser extent, biofuels.

Prices of roots and tubers are projected to broadly follow developments in cereal markets over the medium term, reflecting their partial substitutability in food and feed uses. As a result, while nominal prices are expected to increase, real prices are projected to remain stable or decline slightly, assuming continued productivity growth and supply expansion.

10.2. Pulses

10.2.1. Market overview

Pulses are the dried edible seeds of plants in the legume family.1 They are an important source of plant-based protein, dietary fibre, complex carbohydrates, vitamins and minerals. Pulses also contain bioactive compounds associated with various health benefits. Their consumption varies widely across regions depending on dietary traditions, relative prices and the availability of alternative protein sources. Compared with many other staple foods, pulses are relatively stable in storage because of their low moisture content and can be kept for extended periods of time without major losses in nutritional quality, which helps limit post-harvest losses.

Pulse cultivation has long been integrated into agricultural systems across many regions. Leguminous crops play an important role in improving soil fertility through biological nitrogen fixation and can contribute to higher soil organic matter when included in crop rotations or intercropping systems. These characteristics can reduce the need for synthetic fertilisers and help diversify cropping systems. Despite these agronomic advantages, global pulse production only expanded slowly until the early 2000s. Limited investment in breeding, relatively low yields compared with cereals and weaker policy support in some regions constrained production growth. Since the early 2000s, however, output has increased more rapidly, supported by expanding demand, improvements in varieties and agronomic practices, and policy initiatives promoting production in several countries, particularly in Asia and Africa.

Global per capita consumption declined from the 1960s to the early 2000s as dietary patterns shifted (Figure 10.2). In recent years, however, consumption has stabilised and gradually increased, reaching 7.5 kg/person/year. Growth has been the strongest in countries where pulses remain a key source of plant-based protein, including India and several African countries.

Pulses are consumed in a variety of forms, including whole seeds, split pulses and flours. More recently, advances in processing technologies have enabled the extraction of pulse proteins, starches and fibres, which are increasingly used in food manufacturing, including meat alternatives, snack products and bakery items.

10.2.2. Current market conditions

India remains the largest producer of pulses, accounting for roughly a quarter of global output. Other major producers include Canada, China, Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”) and the European Union. Asia represents the largest consumption region, where pulses remain an important source of dietary protein, but production does not fully meet demand, making the region a key destination for imports. Globally, roughly one-quarter of pulse production is traded internationally, with Canada leading exports (20% of global trade) and China leading imports (16% of global trade). Africa has continued to expand its production and consumption over the past decade, although the degree of self-sufficiency varies across countries.

In recent years, global pulse markets have been influenced by strong supply growth in major exporting countries, particularly Canada. Favourable growing conditions and attractive returns supported increases in both yields and harvested area, leading to higher exportable supplies. At the same time, policy decisions in key importing countries – most notably the temporary relaxation of import restrictions in India to contain domestic food price inflation – have supported trade flows. Following the price peaks observed in 2021, international pulse prices have eased, reflecting improved supply conditions and relatively moderate demand growth. International prices for pulses, approximated by the Canadian field pea price, have continued to fall since 2021 and are estimated at around 215 United States dollars per tonne (USD/t) in the current marketing year.

10.2.3. Main drivers for projections

Demand for pulses is supported by their role as a relatively affordable source of plant-based protein, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. In higher income markets, growing interest in plant-based diets and alternatives to animal-sourced foods is contributing to increased use of pulses and pulse-derived ingredients in food processing.

On the supply side, policy support in several countries continues to play an important role. Initiatives aimed at improving domestic protein self-sufficiency, such as the European Union’s protein strategy, as well as support programmes in major producing countries, are encouraging pulse cultivation. In addition, the agronomic benefits of pulses – particularly their contribution to soil fertility – make them an attractive component of sustainable cropping systems. At the same time, pulses remain less competitive than cereals in many production systems due to lower and more variable yields, which continues to limit more rapid supply expansion.

10.2.4. Projection highlights

Pulses are projected to regain importance in diets in many regions, with global per capita food consumption increasing by 11% from the base period to reach 8.2 kg/year by 2035. Growth is expected across most regions, with particularly strong increases in countries where pulses remain an important source of dietary plant-based protein and in higher income countries, where demand for plant‑based food is expanding.

Global production is projected to increase by around 19 Mt over the coming decade, with India accounting for a significant share of this growth. Production gains in India are supported by improvements in seed varieties, mechanisation, and policy measures such as minimum support prices and procurement programmes.

Overall production growth is expected to result from a combination of yield improvements and more intensive land use, including increased intercropping with cereals, particularly in Asia and Africa. However, yield growth for pulses is projected to remain slower than for cereals and oilseeds, reflecting relatively lower investment in research, irrigation and input use.

World trade in pulses is projected to expand further, reaching around 25 Mt by 2035. Canada is expected to remain the leading exporter, followed by Australia and Russia. International prices in nominal terms are projected to increase over the projection period, while real prices are expected to decline, reflecting productivity gains and moderate demand growth.

10.3. Bananas and major tropical fruits

Bananas and the four major fresh tropical fruits – mango, pineapple, avocado and papaya – play a vital role in agricultural markets, food security and nutrition, and in securing the livelihoods of smallholders in tropical countries. In recent decades, rising incomes and changing consumer preferences in emerging and high-income markets, alongside improvements in transport and supply chain management, have facilitated fast growth in consumption and international trade in these commodities.

Global production of bananas and major tropical fruits generates some USD 125 billion in revenues to support producers. Although only approximately 14% of global banana production and 8% of global major tropical fruit production are traded in international markets, the two commodity groups respectively generate around USD 12.8 billion and USD 15.5 billion per year in export revenues (provisional 2025 figures). In exporting countries, which are mostly low-income or middle-income economies, production and trade revenues can weigh substantially in agricultural gross domestic product, particularly for tropical Latin American countries. For instance, bananas represented about 36% of agricultural export revenue in Ecuador in 2024, while combined exports of pineapples and bananas accounted for some 40% of agricultural export revenue in Costa Rica. As such, trade in bananas and major tropical fruits can generate significant export earnings.

10.3.1. Bananas

Market situation

Preliminary data for 2025 indicate that global trade in bananas experienced a noticeable recovery from the previous years’ declines. Key developments centred around fast growth in exports from Colombia and the Philippines, which expanded at double-digit rates year-on-year, jointly adding an estimated 900 000 tonnes in 2025. Substantially higher supplies were also reported from Ecuador, India and Viet Nam, where growth was seen on the back of higher investments in production expansion and favourable climatic conditions. At the same time, the impact of adverse weather conditions and the spread of plant pests and diseases continued to be of concern to the industry and caused disruption to several key exporting countries.

On the import side, a surge in procurements from China and Russia, which grew at double-digit rates over the first nine months of the year, was the main driver of expansion. In the European Union, the largest importer of bananas, demand remained solid against shortages in domestic production in the Canary Islands and the French West Indies. In the United States, rising unit prices for bananas resulted in a noticeable contraction in demand, in particular for higher priced organic bananas.

Projection highlights

Assuming normal weather conditions and no further spread of banana plant diseases, global banana production is expected to reach 168 Mt by 2035, from 140 Mt in the base period. As per capita demand for bananas is becoming increasingly saturated in most regions, growth in global production and consumption is expected to be primarily driven by population dynamics. In line with slowing world population growth, the current baseline projections expect world production and consumption of bananas to expand at a moderate 1.8% p.a. over the Outlook period. At the same time, in some emerging economies – principally China and India – income growth is anticipated to stimulate changing health and nutrition perceptions and support demand for bananas beyond population growth. Accordingly, Asia, the current top producing region, is anticipated to remain so at a quantity of some 87 Mt by 2035, equivalent to a share of just over 50%, with India projected to reach an output of 49 Mt and an annual per capita consumption of 30.4 kg by 2035, from 25.4 kg in the base period.

Production from the top exporting region of Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to reach 35 Mt by 2035, encouraged by rising demand from key markets, most importantly the European Union and the United States. With economic pressures expected to continue in 2026 and potentially beyond, demand for bananas is likely to be supported by the fruit’s relative affordability. Total banana exports from Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to expand at 1% p.a., to around 16 Mt by 2035. The largest exporters from the region – Ecuador, Guatemala, Costa Rica and Colombia – are likely to benefit from this growth, provided that output can be shielded from the adverse effects of erratic weather events and disease outbreaks (Figure 10.3). Exports from India, meanwhile, are projected to reach some 1.3 Mt by 2035, from 0.8 Mt in the base period, on account of fast rising demand from the Near East and Central Asia, importantly from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan, as well as from neighbouring Nepal. Growing demand from the European Union and the United Kingdom is further expected to benefit exports from Africa, which are projected to expand at 1.3% p.a. over the outlook period – led by Côte d’Ivoire – to reach a total quantity of approximately 0.8 Mt in 2035. Rising import demand from China, where domestic production growth is likely to remain relatively slow, is assumed to be an additional factor driving production growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, and importantly also in emerging Asian suppliers Viet Nam and Cambodia, which may jointly export some 0.9 Mt by 2035. Against this background, world exports of bananas are projected to reach some 22.8 Mt by 2035.

10.3.2. Mango, mangosteen and guava

Market situation

Global exports of mango, mangosteen and guava grew to approximately 2.7 Mt in 2025, an increase of 7% from the previous year. Higher exports of mangosteen from Thailand, as well as of mangoes from Brazil, Egypt and Peru were the main driving factors behind this growth. In terms of export quantities by type at the global level, mango accounted for around 85% of global shipments and mangosteen for around 15%. As previously, guava continued to display a low availability in import markets, in particular due to its lower suitability for transport.

Total global import quantities of fresh mangoes, mangosteens and guavas rose by 12% to 2.6 Mt in 2025. The United States and the European Union remained the leading global importers, with estimated import shares of 23% and 17%, respectively. In both markets, consumer demand for mangoes reportedly remained solid, driven by a mounting nutritional awareness of the assumed health benefits of these fruits.

Imports by China, the third leading global importer of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas in recent years, are estimated to have expanded by 19% in 2025, mainly on account of rising domestic demand for fresh or dried mangoes.

Projection highlights

Global production of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas is projected to increase at 2.5% p.a. over the next decade, to reach 89 Mt by 2035, from 63 Mt in the base period. Growth in mango production will mainly respond to income-driven growth in demand in producing countries, additionally supported by population dynamics. Asia, the native region of mangoes and mangosteens, will continue to account for just over 70% of global production in 2035. This will be primarily due to strong growth in domestic demand in India, the leading producer and consumer of mangoes globally, with rising incomes and associated shifts in dietary preferences being the main drivers. Mango production in India is projected to account for about 39 Mt in 2035, or 44% of global production, destined largely for local, informal markets. As such, India is projected to experience increases in per capita consumption of 1% p.a. over the outlook period, reaching 24.5 kg p.a. in 2035, compared to 18.9 kg in the base period, while average annual per capita consumption in Asia overall is expected to reach 14.4 kg in 2035, compared to 10.8 kg in the base period. By contrast, in Mexico and Thailand, the leading exporters, production growth will primarily be driven by expanding global import demand. Exports are anticipated to reach a 19% share of production in Mexico and 34% in Thailand by 2035. However, at projected production quantities of 3.1 Mt and 1.7 Mt in 2035, respectively, Mexico and Thailand will account for comparatively small shares in global production.

Global exports of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas are projected to reach 3.4 Mt in 2035, compared to 2.6 Mt in the base period, on account of higher procurements from the United States, China and the European Union. Mexico, the leading supplier of mangoes, is expected to benefit from further growth in import demand from its major market, the United States, provided the United States does not impose import tariffs on mangoes originating in Mexico. Under this assumption, Mexico would hold a 17% share of world exports in 2035. Meanwhile supplies from Brazil and Peru, two emerging exporters, will be mostly mangoes destined for the European Union. Brazil and Peru are expected to hold some 13% and 10% of world exports in 2035, respectively. Shipments from Thailand and Viet Nam of mangoes and mangosteens will cater mainly to rising import demand from China. Together, Thailand and Viet Nam are expected to account for over 30% of global exports, at roughly an even share each. China, whose annual per capita mango, mangosteen and guava consumption of 3 kg in the base period is relatively low compared to other Asian countries, is expected to experience a rise in imports of 2% p.a., to some 0.8 Mt in 2035. This will be mainly due to a strong, income-driven increase in Chinese import demand for mangosteen, as domestic production of this fruit is expected to remain low in China.

10.3.3. Pineapple

Market situation

Based on preliminary trade data, global exports of pineapples declined by approximately 5% in 2025, to 3.4 Mt, determined largely by significant supply shortages in Costa Rica, the world’s leading exporter with a market share of around 60%. In terms of leading destinations, pineapple shipments from Costa Rica continued to be almost exclusively destined for the United States and the European Union. Exports from the Philippines, the second leading exporter of pineapples to global markets, meanwhile expanded by an estimated 14% in 2025, to some 780 000 tonnes, with supplies mainly delivered to China.

Preliminary trade data indicate a relatively stable global import level of approximately 3.2 Mt in 2025, only a moderate change from 2024. While demand in the United States and the European Union continued to be firm, growth was constrained by supply shortages from the main global supplier, Costa Rica, which could only marginally be offset by higher procurements from alternative suppliers. Imports by China, the third-leading global importer of pineapples, expanded by about 9% in 2025, to 260 000 Mt, as domestic production was affected by adverse weather conditions which resulted in lower yields and lower qualities throughout most of the year.

Projection highlights

Over the next decade, global production of pineapple is projected to grow at 1.5% p.a., to reach 37 Mt in 2035, from 30 Mt in the base period, on account of a 1% expansion in harvested area. Asia is expected to remain the largest producing region; accounting for 43% of global production, with sizeable pineapple production in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Cultivation in Asia will continue to largely cater to domestic demand and is projected to grow solidly in response to changing demographics and income growth, especially in China, India and Indonesia. Similarly, pineapple production in Latin America and the Caribbean, the second-largest producing region at a projected 34% of world production in 2035, will be primarily driven by the evolving consumption needs of the region’s growing and increasingly affluent population. Only Costa Rica and the Philippines, two important global producers and exporters, are anticipated to see additional stimulation from rising import demand, with exports of fresh pineapples projected to account for approximately 77% of production in Costa Rica and 23% in the Philippines in 2035.

Global exports of fresh pineapple are set to grow at 1.4% p.a., to 3.8 Mt in 2035, predominantly driven by demand from the United States and the European Union. With projected imports of 1.2 Mt in 2035 – equivalent to a 34% global share – the United States is expected to remain the largest importer. The European Union is expected to account for some 26% of global imports. In both key markets, demand is assumed to benefit from continuously low unit prices and, to some degree, the introduction of more premium novelty varieties. Rising import demand from China, where consumption growth has been outpacing production expansion in recent years, is expected to additionally drive expansion in global exports. At a growth of 5.9% p.a., China is projected to reach import quantities of some 0.3 Mt per year by 2035, with supplies primarily sourced in the Philippines.

10.3.4. Avocado

Market situation

Global exports of avocado expanded by an estimated 13% in 2025, to around 3.3 Mt, in contrast to the moderate 2% expansion seen in 2024. While exports from Mexico were constrained by strong domestic demand, avocado shipments from Peru expanded substantially on the back of production expansion and rising import demand. Together these two exporters supply over 60% of total traded quantities to world markets, with shipments primarily destined for the United States and the European Union. Higher exports were also reported from several emerging suppliers to world markets, notably Chile, the Dominican Republic and Morocco. Meanwhile, exports from Kenya and South Africa contracted amid logistical bottlenecks related to the Red Sea crisis.

Preliminary data and information indicate that global imports of avocados rose by some 12% in 2025, to approximately 3.1 Mt. Strong supplies in global markets meant that rising demand in the key import destinations, the European Union and the United States, could be catered to. Both in the United States and across the European Union, consumption continued to gain in popularity among an increasingly health-conscious population, with avocados widely perceived as a highly nutritious fruit.

Projection highlights

Avocado has the lowest production level among the major tropical fruits but has experienced the fastest expansion in output in recent decades and is expected to remain the commodity whose production will grow most rapidly among the major tropical fruits over the Outlook period. Ample global demand, high returns per hectare and lucrative export unit prices continue to be the main drivers of this growth, stimulating investments in area expansion in both major and emerging production zones. By 2035, production is thereby projected to grow at 2.6% p.a. and reach 16 Mt – more than triple its level in 2015. While new growing areas have been emerging rapidly, avocado production is likely to remain concentrated in a small number of regions and countries. The top four producing countries – Mexico, Colombia, Peru and the Dominican Republic – are projected to expand production substantially over the coming decade, together accounting for some 53% of global production in 2035. Output in Colombia, Mexico and Peru is set to increase by some 25-50% from base period levels. As such, about 65% of avocado production is expected to remain in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Avocado is on track to become the most traded major tropical fruit in quantity, overtaking pineapples and reaching 4.3 Mt of exports by 2035. The total value of global avocado exports would thus reach an estimated USD 11 billion in constant 2023-2025 value terms, thereby placing avocado as one of the most valuable fruit commodities. Despite increasing competition from emerging exporters such as Colombia and Kenya, Mexico is expected to retain its leading position in global exports at a 38% quantity share in 2035. This will be supported by output growth of 1.9% p.a. over the coming decade and continued growth in demand in the United States, assuming that avocados can be shielded from potential import tariffs imposed by the United States. Exports from Peru, the second leading exporter, will account for some 25% of global shipments, with supplies mainly catering to rising demand from the European Union.

The United States and the European Union, where consumer interest in avocados is fuelled by the fruit’s alleged health benefits, are expected to remain the main importers, with 41% and 28% of the circa 4 million tonnes of global imports in 2035, respectively. However, imports are also set to rise in the United Kingdom, Canada, China and some countries in the Middle East, on account of rising incomes and/or changing consumer preferences. Similarly, in many producing countries, per capita consumption of avocados is expected to rise with income growth, notably in Colombia, Indonesia and Mexico.

10.3.5. Papaya

Market situation

Preliminary trade data indicate an expansion in global exports of papayas by an estimated 14% in 2025, to some 420 000 tonnes. Exports from Mexico, the largest global exporter of papayas, are estimated to have grown by some 12% over the full year, to 230 000 tonnes. Virtually all Mexican papaya exports are destined for the United States, which globally ranks as the largest importer of papayas, accounting for over half of all global imports in 2025, as indicated by export data by destination. However, the bulk of Mexican papaya production continued to be for domestic consumption.

Preliminary data further suggest that global imports rose by 17% in 2024, to approximately 410 000 tonnes. The United States remained the largest importer globally, accounting for an estimated quantity share of 56% in 2025. Demand for papayas in the United States remained solid over 2025, with papayas benefiting from their reputation of being a rich source of beta carotene and vitamin C.

The second-leading importer globally continued to be the European Union, albeit with a much lower share in world imports of only an estimated 10% in 2025. Consumer awareness of papaya in the European Union generally remains low, mostly due to the fruit’s fragility in transport, which renders a significant expansion in this market difficult to attain. Preliminary data accordingly suggest that imports by the European Union remained at a relatively low level of approximately 40 000 tonnes in 2025.

Projection highlights

Global papaya production is projected to rise by 2.1% p.a., to 18 Mt in 2035, from 15 Mt in the base period. As the share of exports in production is particularly low for papayas, at some 3% in the base period, production of this fruit is mostly driven by domestic demand due to population and income growth. Asia, the top global producer, is expected to have the strongest production expansion, with its share of world production set to rise to 57% by 2035, from 55% in the base period. India, the world’s largest producer, is projected to increase production at a rate of 2.5% p.a., reaching a share of global output of 36% by 2035. Income and population growth will be the main factors behind this rise, with Indian per capita consumption of papayas expected to reach 4 kg in 2035, up slightly from 3.6 kg in the base period. Indonesia’s production is projected to grow by 1.9% p.a. over the Outlook period, primarily on account of increasing domestic demand as per capita incomes are expected to expand at 3.3% p.a.

Global exports will predominantly be shaped by production expansion in Mexico and higher demand from the key importers. At an expected average annual rate of 1.9%, global exports of papayas are projected to reach just over 0.5 Mt by 2035. A major obstacle to significant expansion in international trade has so far been the fruit’s high perishability and sensitivity in transport, which makes it problematic to supply to far afield destinations. Innovations in cold chain, packaging and transport technologies promise to facilitate a broader distribution of papaya, particularly in view of rising consumer demand for tropical fruits in import markets.

10.3.6. Uncertainties

The outlook for global production, trade and consumption of bananas and major fresh tropical fruits is subject to several potentially significant uncertainties. Elevated costs of living and exchange rate fluctuations threaten to hinder demand in domestic and import markets, especially for consumers in poorer economic strata. Given the typically high unit values and high income and demand-side price elasticities of tropical fruits, changes in consumer incomes – or prices – may quickly affect demand. Geopolitical uncertainties that may result in the disruption of established trade relationships and potentially cause grave effects on domestic and global markets are of further concern. In this regard, the risk of armed conflicts causing disruptions to global trade routes, energy markets and fertiliser supplies threatens to impede the production of bananas and tropical fruits in terms of quantity and quality. The adverse effects of such developments may result in additional pressure on production costs, jeopardise global supplies and cause price increases along the value chain. Tariffs implemented by major importing countries are another key uncertainty. Depending on the applied tariff rates as well as the role in world markets of the countries involved, the repercussions of such tariffs on trading partners and on global markets may be significant.

On the supply side, the effects of global warming are resulting in a higher occurrence of droughts, floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters, which render the production of bananas and major tropical fruits increasingly difficult and costly. Given the perishable nature of tropical fruits in production, trade and distribution, environmental challenges and insufficient infrastructure continue to jeopardise international production and supply. This is a particularly acute difficulty since the vast majority of tropical fruits are produced in remote, informal settings, where cultivation is highly dependent on rainfall, prone to the adverse effects of increasingly erratic weather events and disconnected from major transport routes.

In the face of rising temperatures, more rapid and severe spreads of plant pests and diseases are being observed, like the spread of Banana Fusarium Wilt. An assessment of the potential economic impact of the TR4 disease on global markets showed that a further spread of TR4 would, inter alia, entail considerable loss of income and employment in the banana sector in the affected countries, as well as significantly higher consumer costs in importing countries.2

Notes

← 1.  Pulses types: dry beans, dry broad beans, dry peas, chickpeas, cow peas, pigeon peas, lentils, Bambara beans, vetches, lupines and minor pulses (not elsewhere specified).

← 2.  An alternative simulation was run in 2019 to assess the potential economic impact of TR4 on global banana production and trade. The results of this scenario were published in the November 2019 issue of Food and Agriculture Organization’s biannual publication Food Outlook (https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/5b53665b-3767-4681-9cad-ebf60d5d1dbe/content).