Thanks to productivity gains, average gross per capita agricultural incomes are expected to increase by 9% over the next decade, despite rising input costs and broadly stable real agricultural prices.
Given the inherent volatility of agricultural markets, there is a one-in-four chance that gross agricultural income per worker in 2035 will be at least 12% lower than the projected baseline level and in low-income countries, the decline could exceed 20%.
Real international agricultural commodity prices are projected to remain broadly stable at or below current levels over the next decade.
While productivity gains are expected to account for the bulk of agricultural production growth over the next decade, some expansion of crop areas and livestock numbers will still be necessary, leading to a 6.5% increase in direct greenhouse gas emissions.
Consumers in lower middle-income countries are expected to further diversify their diets, particularly by increasing the share of livestock products consumed as part of rising living standards.
Multilateral co‑operation and rules-based international agricultural trade remain vital for resilient global food security, accessible and affordable healthy diets, and stable farm incomes.
OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035
