The OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026‑2035 assesses ten-year prospects for agricultural commodities and aquatic food markets at global, regional and national levels. Global production is projected to expand by 13% over the next ten years, driven mainly by productivity improvements and intensification, with growth concentrated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase by 6%, considerably slower than production growth. Projected productivity gains raise global gross agricultural income per worker by 9% by 2035, but inherent variability in natural and economic conditions still leaves a 25% chance of a 3% decline in workers’ income. A supplementary analysis suggests that disruptions associated with the 2026 Middle East conflict will constrain fertiliser use and as a result cereal production, especially in low-income countries. In this context, international agricultural trade remains critical to balance supply and demand and mitigate adverse food security impacts.
More information is available at https://www.agri-outlook.org.
