States of Fragility 2025

Annex A. Methodological notes

This annex provides an overview of the methodological notes for the data and evidence used in this report. Further information on the methodology for the States of Fragility report series is available on the States of Fragility data and visualisation platform: http://www3.compareyourcountry.org/states-of-fragility/about/0/. This webpage also contains a link to the underlying data and statistical code (produced in R and R Studio) to produce the fragility framework. The term “high and extreme fragility” refers to the 61 contexts identified on the snail infographic of the 2025 edition of the OECD’s multidimensional fragility framework. The term medium to low fragility refers to the other 116 contexts with the grouping medium to low fragility (ODA eligible) referring to the countries and territories on the DAC List of ODA Recipients on aid in 2024, available at development-finance-codelists.oecd.org/CodesList.aspx

The methodology for the OECD’s multidimensional fragility framework

The OECD characterises fragility as the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacities of the state, system and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks. The OECD’s multidimensional fragility framework, introduced in the 2016 edition of States of Fragility, measures fragility on a spectrum of intensity across six dimensions: economic, environmental, human, political, security and societal. It relies on a mixed methods approach that examines contexts within each dimension and then aggregates this information to obtain an overall picture of fragility. The methodology is based on a two-stage principal components analysis (PCA), with a hierarchical clustering procedure to group contexts according to similar characteristics in each dimension. The foundation is based on 56 indicators derived from independent third-party data sources, all of which are recorded and explained in greater detail on the States of Fragility platform. Each of the six dimensions contains eight to ten indicators that are aggregated into principal components in the first stage PCA; the first two principal components in each dimension are used for the second stage PCA. The first principal component that results from this second stage PCA represents the overall fragility score for each context. Based on this score, a context is classified as either exposed to high fragility, if its score is lower than -1.18, or exposed to extreme fragility, if the score is lower than -2.7. Thresholds for high and extreme fragility were chosen based on natural breaks in the data. This analysis assesses fragility across 177 contexts for which sufficient data were available, as denoted by data being available by context for at least 70% of indicators.

Population statistics were sourced from UN DESA (2024[1]), using both the “Estimates” and “Medium Variant” (e.g. from 2024 onward). Regional and income group classifications were based on the (World Bank, 2024[2]), Country and Lending Groups with classifications available for all contexts exposed to high and extreme fragility apart from Venezuela. The step-by-step process for the PCA and hierarchical clustering procedure is available on the States of Fragility platform as well as the methodological notes and caveats regarding the data collected for the analysis. Additional information is available upon request.

Financial statistics

Aid statistics cited in this report are available until 2023. They are deflated to USD constant (2022) when used in timeseries and represented in USD million disbursements or USD billion disbursements. When figures from 2023 are quoted alone, these are usually cited in USD current prices. They are sourced from the OECD aid statistics database specifically the DAC2A (2025[3]) and Creditor Reporting System (OECD, 2025[4]). The sources of other financial statistics are cited in the text, using the most recent values – usually 2023.

Humanitarian-development-peace (HDP) nexus

All other CRS purpose codes not listed below under humanitarian or peace fall under development.

Table A A.1. Humanitarian

Purpose Name	Purpose Code
Material relief assistance and services	72010
Emergency food assistance	72040
Relief co-ordination and support services	72050
Immediate post-emergency reconstruction and rehabilitation	73010
Multi-hazard response preparedness	74020

Table A A.2. Peace and types of peace

Purpose Name	Purpose Code	Type of Peace
Public sector policy and administrative management	15110	Secondary Peace
Public financial management	15111	Secondary Peace
Decentralisation and support to subnational government	15112	Secondary Peace
Anti-corruption organisations and institutions	15113	Secondary Peace
Legal and judicial development	15130	Secondary Peace
Democratic participation and civil society	15150	Secondary Peace
Legislatures and political parties	15152	Secondary Peace
Media and free flow of information	15153	Secondary Peace
Human rights	15160	Secondary Peace
Women’s rights organisations and movements, and government institutions	15170	Secondary Peace
Ending violence against women and girls	15180	Secondary Peace
Facilitation of orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility	15190	Secondary Peace
Security system management and reform	15210	Core Peace
Civilian peacebuilding, conflict prevention and resolution	15220	Core Peace
Participation in international peacekeeping operations	15230	Core Peace
Reintegration and SALW control	15240	Core Peace
Removal of land mines and explosive remnants of war	15250	Core Peace
Child soldiers (prevention and demobilization)	15261	Core Peace

References

[4] OECD (2025), OECD Data Explorer, Creditor Reporting System, http://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/z1 (accessed on 31 January 2025).

[3] OECD (2025), OECD Data Explorer, DAC 2A: Aid (ODA) disbursements to countries and regions, http://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/od (accessed on 31 January 2025).

[1] UN DESA (2024), Revision of World Population Prospects (database), https://population.un.org/wpp/ (accessed on 1 December 2024).

[2] World Bank (2024), World Bank Country and Lending Groups (webpage), https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups (accessed on 1 December 2024).