Activity is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024, after increasing by 4.7% in 2022. High inflation will curb household purchasing power, but savings accumulated during the pandemic will support consumption. With deteriorating demand prospects and rising financing costs, private investment is expected to remain subdued. The slowdown in key trading partners will dent exports. Inflation will peak at 8.6% in 2022 and then decline to 4.8% in 2023 and 2024.
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A strong, resilient and inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 crisis requires improving productivity growth, by boosting digitalisation, innovation, and investment in intangible capital. It also requires addressing long-standing structural problems in the labour markets, reinforced by the pandemic: high unemployment, insufficient skills, large regional variation and a large share of workers on non-regular contracts.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities